BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

One new poll on voting intention and one on leadership ratings find the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintaining its recent boring form.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research. The Roy Morgan results that were reported in the previous post have been added to the leadership ratings, without effecting any change worth mentioning.

bt2019-2016-11-02

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  4. I too am hoping that the pollsters (including William) are correct and Clinton has a 3 pt lead with the right states falling her way. The US would experience a magnified version of the Abbott regime if Trump got up (as a matter of fact if you combined Abbott and Palmer you’d have Trump in terms of temperament and nous).

    We are lucky in that we can undo the mess relatively quickly through parliamentary means … in the US it ain’t s easy (and I expect that is why people resort to assassination there … apart from the obvious gun fetish).

  6. Darn
    #300 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 10:20 am
    (apart from William of course – don’t want to get offside with the boss).

    I prefer to think of William as “The Ringmaster”. 😎

  11. Player One,

    Perhaps just a desperate need to buy votes from the cross-benchers? I wonder if one of them is an anti-vaxxer who set this as their price?

    Come on down Appauling Hanson. Has mlal stooped that low ?

    Hanson says vaccines may cause autism

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2016/07/05/hanson-says-vaccines-may-cause-autism.html
    Pauline Hanson would ‘think twice’ about vaccinating her children again because of ‘autism and cancer risks’
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/30540710/pauline-hanson-would-think-twice-about-vaccinating-her-children-again-because-of-cancer-and-autism-risks/#page1

  13. I like this from the Guardian…
    ** How can it be that a tax-avoiding billionaire who flies around in a gold-plated private jet is most popular in a place where more than half the population lives off donations from a food bank?**
    Partly because he has promised to reopen the closed, unprofitable coal mines. These people are angry now but if Trump doesnt deliver on his many documented (and improbable) promises to these poorer regions then nothing (bar outright fraud) will save them in 4 or 2 years time.

  15. Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    Sky News Australia
    4m4 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@realDonaldTrump says if Hillary Clinton won the election it would create an ‘unprecedented constitutional crisis’ http://snpy.tv/2ewXDmU

    2

    2

    Sky News Australia
    10m10 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    Barack Obama predicts the US election will ‘be a close race’ while speaking at a rally in North Carolina @POTUS http://snpy.tv/2ewTrDK

  16. Photos
    Likes
    Tweets
    Kurt Eichenwald
    9s9 seconds ago
    Kurt Eichenwald ‏@kurteichenwald
    @xlindab No worries. West European intel agencies are all over Trump/Russia. They see @realDonaldTrump as threat 2 their national security.

    Kurt Eichenwald
    2m2 minutes ago
    Kurt Eichenwald ‏@kurteichenwald
    @AbatediTheleme …and please don’t tell me that ur fine w/ a candidate who, w/o explanation, disputes info he receives in intel briefings.

  17. Translation from Trumpish to English;
    @realDonaldTrump says if Hillary Clinton won the election HE would create an ‘unprecedented crisis’

  18. A nice little quote from Abraham Lincoln, relevant to Trump, Hanson, Bernardi and the other Know Nothing parasites.

    As a nation, we began by declaring that ‘all men are created equal.’ We now practically read it ‘all men are created equal, except negroes.’ When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read ‘all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.’ When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.

  19. I read the Katharine Murphy piece and welcomed the explicit links between the Liberal Party and right-wing media and found it quite a critical article if not quite as partisan as some here would like. I guess we see what we want to see.

  20. Translation from Trumpish to English;
    @realDonaldTrump says if Hillary Clinton won the election HE would create an ‘unprecedented crisis’

    I was thinking about this yesterday and thought, would it not be the case that now, before the election and when both are still candidates for POTUS, they can get away with saying this sort of thing (even if it’s only Trump doing it)? However, when Hillary becomes POTUS such threats take on a whole new legal meaning and it would therefore be Trump who ends up locked-up and not President Clinton.

  21. el guapo @ #319 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 11:30 am

    I read the Katharine Murphy piece and welcomed the explicit links between the Liberal Party and right-wing media and found it quite a critical article if not quite as partisan as some here would like. I guess we see what we want to see.

    As someone who has had a lot of time for Ms Murphy, I’ve gotten to the point where I now read all her pieces the same way:

    “Turnbull has to appear right wing because he needs to keep the right of his party off his back, but really he is moving the party towards the centre and doing nice centrist things that the right can’t see because of the sops he throws them. Or, he will move the party to the centre very soon. In the meantime, he doesn’t really mean all of things he does that appear so right wing.”

    My personal test for Turnbull was whether he would find a way of dumping the plebiscite before the last election – or at least hold it in conjunction with the last election. To my mind, the holding of a stand-alone plebiscite on marriage equality was obviously ludicrous on multiple grounds. He didn’t, and there is still no marriage equality. Now, his apologists are suggesting his real plan is to put the plebiscite to Parliament and, when it fails to pass, allow it to go to a Parliamentary free vote, having ‘kept his promise’ to the right. They’re dreaming – and so is Murphy.

    The one thing that Murphy has not done – and most of the press gallery has not done – is to concede that Turnbull is actually what they wrongly accuse Shorten of being – an empty space where there should be commitments and convictions.

    There is no way back for Turnbull, because there was nothing there in the first place. And any press gallery hack who does not believe that remains a fool.

  27. It should be noted that quote about Russia was from before 1865. That was still the Tsar’s Russia (the Communists didn’t take over until 1917). Russia’s always had a bit of a bad reputation it seems.

  28. poroti @ #311 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 10:56 am

    Player One,

    Perhaps just a desperate need to buy votes from the cross-benchers? I wonder if one of them is an anti-vaxxer who set this as their price?

    Come on down Appauling Hanson. Has mlal stooped that low ?

    Hanson says vaccines may cause autism

    http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2016/07/05/hanson-says-vaccines-may-cause-autism.html
    Pauline Hanson would ‘think twice’ about vaccinating her children again because of ‘autism and cancer risks’
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/30540710/pauline-hanson-would-think-twice-about-vaccinating-her-children-again-because-of-cancer-and-autism-risks/#page1

    How many years ago was that twaddle debunked?

  31. [@realDonaldTrump says if Hillary Clinton won the election HE would create an ‘unprecedented crisis’]

    If Trump loses, I suspect he would be dumped fairly quickly by the GOP establishment. Any political crisis would be engineered by GOP establishment figures within the procedures available to Congress, State legislatures, the Judiciary and political appointees like Comey of the FBI. It would be no different to what the GOP has already been doing during the Obama administration and at State level.

    As for Trump, he would probably throw a tantrum and urge his supporters to riot in the streets and perhaps physically attack some people. Beyond that, I don’t think he would be able to do much. It’s been reported earlier that he would turn his attention to creating a Trump media organisation to capture the RW audience from Fox News and similar broadcasters.

  32. Rowan Dean is one of the fools who believe that “sensible Republicans” would be able to control Trump, and wtte after all, some of his suggestions are excellent.

  33. Fantastic analysis by Nick O’Malley:

    In 2008 if you bundled up all the Catholics, Protestants and Baptists, you had about 54 per cent of the nation. This year, the same group constitutes about 45 per cent. According to Jones, that figure is declining by a percentage point each year.

    This figure is central to this election because the Republican Party has come to depend almost exclusively on white Christian voters while the Democratic Party has built a coalition of the other groups.

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/omalleys-trump-weekend-feature-can-he-win-20161103-gshqjh.html

  34. C@Tmomma
    Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 9:39 am
    ABC News Politics‏ @ABCPolitics
    NEW: ABC/WaPo tracking poll: Trump 43, Clinton 47. Support for GOP nominee lowest in 10 days, but race remains close.

    Whenever people start paying attention, like at the conventions and the debates, Clinton has pulled away. The polls reflect this, but with a lag. I would like to think people will be paying a lot of attention on election day, and the polling lag won’t have time to catch up. It wouldn’t surprise me if Clinton wins by a bigger margin than the polls suggest.

  35. “Pauline Hanson would ‘think twice’ about vaccinating her children again because of ‘autism and cancer risks’.”
    That’s natural selection in action.

  36. Dumping Trump has risks for the GOPstablishment if he takes his supporters with him (even if its 15% -30%), they need those votes in Presidential (and to a lesser extent Senate) races to be competitive. If he really does go and do his TV channel thing, it also has serious risks for their propoganda arm Fox News , which is heavily reliant on Trumpers for its massive reach and profitability.

  38. Dio

    I was wondering if you could answer this question for me.

    Is a podiatrist the highest authority on issues concerning the feet or is there a specialist who can be consulted on these matters?

  39. “Pauline Hanson would ‘think twice’…”

    ‘We’re safe. Never gunna happen.’

    To think twice you need to have thought once…

  40. Adrian

    Pauline could ask Malcolm Roberts, who knows everything, but believes she’s the cleverest woman he’s ever met. (Did he really say that?)

  44. Likes
    Tweets
    Rowan retweeted
    Insiders ABC
    Nov 3
    Insiders ABC ‏@InsidersABC
    Our guest on Sunday is @billshortenmp On the panel: David Marr, Niki Savva & Tom Switzer. And look out for another @rabbitandcoffee special!
    Embedded image

  45. BK

    A few months back one of the Deep South states closed down about a third of the polling stations. By complete’ coincidence’ every one closed were in counties/districts with black majority populations.

  50. I wonder what dodgy stats they used to work out these cuts.

    THE nation’s sickest cancer patients and people with diabetes and other chronic illnesses will get a maximum of $1795 worth of GP care a year funded by Medicare under a revolution in the way doctors are paid.

    And Medicare will fund just five extra visits to the doctor if these people need medical attention for issues aside from their chronic illness under the Turnbull Government’s Health Care Homes model.

    Doctors were expressing deep concern about the adequacy of the payment levels that were released without consultation with medical groups on November 4.

    “The modelling is concerning and potentially leaves the whole program at risk of falling over because of being underfunded from the beginning,” AMA vice president Dr Tony Bartone said.

    The Health Care Homes policy is a signature government policy which it claims will solve the woes of the Medicare system by providing comprehensive care for one in five Australians who have a chronic illness, keep them out of hospital and save the health system money.

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/the-nations-sickest-patients-could-be-at-risk-after-a-massive-medicare-shakeup/news-story/73945d77289d74bf9c28ffc86771c45d

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