The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research. The Roy Morgan results that were reported in the previous post have been added to the leadership ratings, without effecting any change worth mentioning.
Morning all. Trying to ignore those US polls, this article on housing affordabilityABC by finance reporter Andrew Robertson is called “analysis”. It is not. It is little more than a collection of cherry picked anecdotes that do not prove the premise. In fact, some data presented disproves the premise. This should be called “opinion” pr even “fiction”. Why publish it at all?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-04/gen-y-still-have-choices-available-to-build-wealth/7996524
Robertson is a “trained financial planner”. Great! Plainly he is not trained as a journalist or an economist. Articles like this explain why the reputation of our news media has declined. They no longer allow us to form a rational world view.
Speaking of poor coverage, I am also a little dissappointed in Nat Silver’s blog in the last day or teo. He has become more prominent but is he now trying to milk the election for blog traffic? The past 48 hours have produced several polls that have shown Clinton’s lead solidifying around +3%, with her downward trend halted. This is a big deal, because it is a winning lead. Yet Silver has not written a single article about it. Instead he still seems to be talking up the risks and possibilities of a close contest. In fact, the battleground state polls are even clearer: Trump is falling short where it matters.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/
poroti @ #249 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 7:13 am
More from H.L. Mencken
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.
No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public.
Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy.
The last quote reminds me of some of the more rabid RW LNP MPs.
Just what are the “heart’s desires of the plain folks” that they can be represented by a downright moron? Further – what if the moron is a homicidal deluded racist ideologue. We may see an American fascist government. Oh what joy! There will be no peace in our time.
One of the horrors of old age is that we will never know how “things” turn out. Will the earth be like the last scene in “Planet of the Apes” where Charlton Heston, an American actor, rants – “We finally really did it. You maniacs! You blew it up! Damn you. God damn you all to hell.”
Now, we all know that Hitler was spirited away to Antarctica in April 1945 and has subsequently died. Perhaps we can hire our new ice breaker, should it ever eventuate, to ferry deserving citizens to Hitler’s old home near the south pole. There we my be safe from the nuclear bombs predicted in recent posts.
With some luck, BK’s morning round up will be a little more upbeat. At lease the cartoons will, more or less, portray a world vaguely reminiscent of reality. 😎
KayJay
Kevin Andrews definitely has the look of someone with a haunting fear.
poroti @ #254 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 8:02 am
I have the mis/understanding that dear Kevin and many others (mostly the anti gay crowd) think somebody is after their arses – individually and collectively. They are right to be afeared although no self respecting citizen of any persuasion would want them for their very own – they would probably be excellent lunch at a zoo near and dear to us.
My syntax is disgraceful. The regimental dog, if she could be roused, would be appalled.
🙂
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2016/11/05/contradictions-duttons-refugee-life-ban/14782644003944
Malcolm’s entrepreneurs boosting the employment statistics :
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2016/11/05/the-truth-about-claims-faulty-welfare-system/14782644003943
http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/as-whooping-cough-rates-double-turnbull-government-wants-to-axe-booster-vaccine-for-year-7-children/news-story/0a585ab69af146da126b8c5139204631
Morning all.
BK, sounds like you had good fun last night. I’m sure we can cope without a dawn patrol this morning if you needed more sleep!
Good morning (at last!) Dawn Patrollers. It took a lot of time to pull this lot together. Happy reading!
Jack Waterford writes that Turnbull’s ship of state is drifting as he searches for his compass. A very good read.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/ship-of-state-drifts-as-malcolm-turnbull-searches-for-his-compass-20161103-gshsce.html
Paula Matthewson on yet another week of political chaos.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2016/11/04/chaos-senate/
Apart from this article from Dennis Shanahan on Turnbull being painted into a corner by Shorten The Australian is at its right wing best today. Google.
opinion/columnists/dennis-shanahan/bill-shorten-paints-malcolm-turnbull-into-corner-on-agenda/news-story/e16bf9d7b3f98d75f162789d682e8c6f
Paul Bongiorno on the efforts of Rudd and Abbott to spite Turnbull.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/11/05/rudd-and-abbott-return-spite-turnbull/14782644003932
Andrew Street wonders what in the hell is wrong with Australian minor parties. Why do they nominate hilarious duds he asks.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/what-the-hell-is-wrong-with-australias-minor-parties-20161104-gsi1r7.html
And in a similar vein – the unstoppable rise of political nongdom.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2016/11/04/one-nation-senate-chaos/
Michaela Whitbourn joins the fray and lines up Day and Culleton as she talks about the political trough of privilege.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bob-day-and-rod-culleton-the-latest-in-a-long-line-of-politicians-at-the-trough-of-privilege-20161104-gsi1y9.html
This is all we need! Al Qaeda terror threats for the US election.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/fbi-and-new-york-police-probe-terror-threat-on-eve-of-presidential-election-20161104-gsinar.html
How will the incoming Chairman of Ardent Leisure handle the Dreamworld crisis?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/ardent-leisures-new-chairman-faces-big-challenges-20161103-gsh5yb.html
Michael Gordon gets stuck into Turnbull and Dutton over immigration/refugee policy.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/a-policy-as-full-of-holes-as-a-leaky-boat-20161104-gsi0hy.html
As does Karen Middleton!
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2016/11/05/contradictions-duttons-refugee-life-ban/14782644003944
KJ
Thanks for the infallibly amusing posts, especially the quotations.(I hadn’t even noticed the syntax)
Can I put in a counter ‘quote’ frroom Churchill “Democracy is the the worse form of Government, except all the others that have tried” or wtte.
Democracy = rule by the mob
Aristocracy= rule by the best.
Plutocracy = rule by the rich
I suppose that Social Democrats must be a mob of party goers!
Anyhow, I have a mob of canines howling for bread and circuses, or meat perhaps.
Section 2 . . .
A petition from 114 public figures in support of a free parliamentary vote for SSM adds fuel to the fire to dump the plebiscite.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/05/public-figures-call-on-government-to-hold-free-vote-on-same-sex-marriage
The AFR has advice to pensioners as the new assessment rules are set to come into play. Google.
/image/v1/373ca4dd0226ace24ccfc2e443394ec6
Can Trump actually win? Perish the thought!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/omalleys-trump-weekend-feature-can-he-win-20161103-gshqjh.html
Five (tongue in cheek) reasons Americans should vote for Trump.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/five-reasons-americans-should-vote-for-donald-trump-20161103-gshtdn.html
Laurie Oakes writes about the wierd, weird US presidential campaign. Google.
/news/opinion/laurie-oakes/laurie-oakes-what-a-weird-weird-us-presidential-campaign/news-story/849ec9fe6ec4dcbed1ccd3f4f489d83d
Paul McGeough gets down to the real problem. America’s democracy is broken and they can’t fix it. It’s a brilliant and informative exposition.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/forget-clinton-and-trump–americas-democracy-is-broken-and-they-cant-fix-it-20161103-gshl3c.html
McGeough reckons Clinton will get up.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/us-election-2016-donald-trumps-twin-claims-debunked-by-new-documents-and-polling-20161103-gshrqj.html
If Trump wins we will enter a new age of darkness according to this writer.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/04/if-donald-trump-wins-new-age-endarkenment
Trump – the demon spawn of Murdoch and News Corp.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/11/05/donald-j-trump-the-love-child-of-news-corporation/
The Saturday Paper looks at the rejection of George Pell’s evidence to the CA Royal Commission. A very good read.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/religion/2016/11/05/george-pell-evidence-rejected-royal-commission-counsel-submissions
The NSW Deputy Police Commissioner is likely to receive an adverse finding after the controversial bugging inquiry.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/deputy-police-commissioner-catherine-burn-likely-to-face-adverse-finding-letter-reveals-20161104-gsiiyn.html
Lizzie
Truffles so desperate he is chasing the Antivaxxers demographic ?
Section 3 . . .
David Leyonhjelm again shows he is a man without scruples.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/04/david-leyonhjelm-calls-for-repeal-of-18c-in-return-for-his-vote-on-industrial-relations
Elizabeth Farrelly dismounts the Turnbull bandwagon as she writes that Australia has gone from the lucky country to the cruel country.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australias-fall-from-lucky-country-to-cruel-country-20161102-gsgvwq.html
Yesterday’s Federal Court dismissal of the QUT 18c case has emboldened MPs to push harder for change.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/queensland-university-of-technology-case-thrown-out-as-18c-inquiry-looms-20161103-gshurj.html
Here’s Katherine Murphy’s take on the decision and what it does and does not mean.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/04/qut-racial-discrimination-and-why-the-liberals-fight-over-18c-will-lead-to-a-sequel
Michelle Grattan the heat is still high on the 18c issue.
https://theconversation.com/18c-case-against-students-dismissed-but-conservatives-push-for-change-continues-68246
Tony Windsor writes that it’s time we all got politics out of education policy.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/11/05/time-get-the-politics-out-education-policy/14782644003940
We now have more unskilled jobseekers than jobs for the unskilled. And we have Turnbull’s draconian policies.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/jobs-snapshot-shows-less-jobs-than-jobseekers-under-turnbulls-policies,9686
Mike Seccombe digs into the truth about our flawed welfare system. A typically thorough contribution from Seccombe.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2016/11/05/the-truth-about-claims-faulty-welfare-system/14782644003943
You have to feel for Scott Ludlam. I hope he comes through this OK.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-senator-scott-ludlam-takes-leave-to-fight-depression-and-anxiety-20161104-gsicny.html
Section 4 . . .
Ross Gittins has penned an article on the politics of taxation reform.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/elections-cast-doubt-over-assumptions-on-tax-reform-20161104-gshx08.html
The slow death of critical thinking in Australia.
https://newmatilda.com/2016/11/05/bugger-the-journalism-the-slow-death-of-critical-thinking-in-australia/
Now the “cash strapped” ABS is shedding another 150 jobs. What next?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/cashstrapped-australian-bureau-of-statistics-forced-to-cut-150-jobs-20161103-gshtu1.html
The camera catches out hypocrite Day and Birmingham at the Day School of Rorts. Doug Cameron is right onto it.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-pictures-that-question-ministers-claim-he-didnt-know-of-bob-days-role-at-trades-school-20161104-gsi0cg.html
The Turnbull government has announced a significant national scheme for compensation for child sexual abuse victims. Unfortunately the perpetrating entities can choose not to opt in.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-announces-massive-compensation-scheme-for-sex-abuse-victims-20161104-gsi5cv.html
Good work from the government to crack down on Norfolk Island’s online gambling shenanigans.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/beyond-redemption-turnbull-government-shuts-down-gambling-body-amid-corruption-fears-20161104-gshzu8.html
Senate crossbenchers are finding themselves more valuable than ever. Google.
/news/politics/senate-crossbenchers-find-they-are-more-valuable-than-ever-20161103-gshisz
Would Turnbull’s ABCC prevent this? Thought not.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/teenager-was-inducted-as-carpenter-before-serious-worksite-accident-20161104-gsi3gr.html
More from Adele Ferguson on the blight of worker exploitation.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/caltex-owner-spills-beans-on-service-stations-20161103-gshnwx.html
Woolworths has scored an “own goal” in its defence of the ACCC allegations. Google.
/business/retail/woolworths-scores-own-goal-defending-accc-allegations-20161103-gshkm3
The head of the Safe Schools program hits out.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2016/11/05/exclusive-safe-schools-head-roz-ward-speaks/14782644003946
Stephen Koukoulas asks whether the Aussie economy is back on track for growth.
https://thekouk.com/item/415-is-the-aussie-economy-back-on-track-for-growth.html
I have identified a major growths opportunity with the federal government.
As noted recently, Jobson Groethe has been missing in action since the last election.
I understand that he is now set to be the chief of staff for the new Department of F**kups. This department will in accordance with natural physical processes, expand to eventually fill the entire universe.
Labor’s hopes for the treasury benches in the near to medium turn will be dashed by this daring manoeuvre.
The LNP and some minor parties will then combine to become the AOTWP with the theme song “14 ginger headed sailors” and the motto “I’m all right Jack!”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXr4N51RsHA
The current government has at hand, many highly qualified MPs ready and able to manage this desirable portfolio.
My pick would be Senator Eric Abetz, with his chutzpah, ability to relate to people of all faiths and ethnicities would be eminently suitable for this plumb appointment.
🙂
Section 5 . . . with Cartoon Corner
The ATO is trying to crush a whistleblower with a huge legal bill.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/tax-office-tries-to-crush-whistleblower-with-88000-legal-bill-20161103-gshsll.html
Ron Tandberg on the child sexual abuse compensation scheme.
David Rowe previews the US election.
Alan Moir does a great Barnaby Joyce!
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20150921-gjrcxr.html
David Pope with an ominous view of the US.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
Mark Knight with yet another disappointed customer of Bob Day.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e2b52695819e82feac7a0867e7632f60?width=1024
And yet again Bill Leak goes after Gillian Triggs.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/373ca4dd0226ace24ccfc2e443394ec6
Thanks BK. McGeough is right, Trump will not win on recent polling. The rest are just trying to invent a horse race so they can comment on it. Commentators need a horse race.
confessions @ #259 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 8:39 am
Yes it was good fun – but a lot of hard work too.
Gippslander
#261 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 8:48 am
Keep up the good work. Anything to distract from the bastardry of the looters. 🙂
Some more good news that has escaped local attention _ the Paris climare agreement came into force yesterday. Even to reach our modest targets, now we will have to do something. No wonder Engie is closing Hazlewood.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/04/paris-climate-change-agreement-enters-into-force
BTW for those who wonder why I barrack so much for modern LRT systems in transport mode debates, they are excellent for reducing transport GHG emissions. They use 1/5 to 1/10 of the energy per capita of a modern diesel bus. They can have regenerative breaking that makes them the train equivalent of a hybrid car.
Another Friday announcement, but I read that private schools have their own programs so this only applies to the common herd. Onya, Mal.
Good Morning Bludgers!
I felt I was reading some version of “the fall of the Roman Empire”.
I expressed exactly the same sentiment to my son the other day. I even have the book on my bookshelf.
My son suggested eerie parallels with the lead pipes and the water in America.
To my mind I can see it in the headlong rush by mainly Conservative politicians to sweep away all common sense in a headlong rush to exploit the Earth and it’s resources for all it’s worth. With the emphasis on ‘worth’, as they line their pockets.
Manifest in the fact that they wear their religion proudly on their sleeve and think of it as some kind of insurance against the calamity that they are creating as sure as a new Dark Ages will follow the Enlightenment the world has benefited from for the last few centuries.
I despair. But like the powerless voter of Paul McGeough’s article, I despair at what I can do to arrest the rising tide of the ignorant bullies and the ignoramuses that follow them blindly.
It doesn’t mean I will stop fighting it till my last breath of cool, clean air. Just like I won’t stop fighting my son who thinks, as many Millenials do, that the whole edifice is crumbling, so just stop trying to defend the citadel of Democracy because it has concrete cancer at it’s core. Instead, man the lifeboats and sail away like Robinson Crusoe until you get to a desert island of the soul where you can establish your own beach-head and weather the storm that you will see on the far horizon.
Morning all
Appreciate your fine efforts BK, especially in light of your big night!!
I am hoping to breathe a sigh of relief on Wednesday that Trump failed in his bid to become President.
Meanwhile I expect team Labor to go hard on Bob Day and also Senator Simon Birmingham during the coming week. What a mob of spivs
Penny pinching on bedrock Health initiatives so you can give massive tax cuts to your mates in the Business world is not a good look.
BK – Shanahan has a problem with reality –
FMD. “Starting to look like”! “Appear not in control”!
How about “is not”.
Thanks BK. I love the Moir cartoon, but in reality it should be Turnbull on the leash.
Socrates
Check out Matthew dowd twitterfeed. He has just exchanged words with Nate Silver of 538
https://mobile.twitter.com/matthewjdowd
Ctar1
Seriously the likes of Shanahan have their heads so far up their own proverbials! Even us mere observers on PB make more informed analysis than that!!
Now I know why Sussan Ley has two ‘s’ in her name. She is a snake. What sort of a Health Minister axes health initiatives!?!
http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/as-whooping-cough-rates-double-turnbull-government-wants-to-axe-booster-vaccine-for-year-7-children/news-story/0a585ab69af146da126b8c5139204631
That should go down well with the punters. Sometimes you just have to wonder if this government has a death wish.
And what did the FBI do about it?
The Hill @thehill
DNC told FBI it had evidence its offices were bugged: report (link: http://hill.cm/41M44yb) hill.cm/41M44yb
c@tmomma @ #280 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 9:15 am
A Coalition health minister of course.
c@tmomma @ #282 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 9:34 am
Hid the bugs better.
c@tmomma @ #280 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 9:15 am
snake
/sneɪk/
noun
noun: snake; plural noun: snakes; noun: snake in the grass; plural noun: snakes in the grass; noun: the snake; noun: plumber’s snake; plural noun: plumber’s snakes
1.
a long limbless reptile which has no eyelids, a short tail, and jaws that are capable of considerable extension. Some snakes have a venomous bite.
synonyms: literaryserpent; More
ophidian;
rhyming slangJoe Blake
2.
a treacherous or deceitful person.
“that man is a cold-blooded snake”
synonyms: traitor, turncoat, betrayer, informer, back-stabber, double-crosser, double-dealer, quisling, Judas; More
And yet – there are two more esses to regale us.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/794668259710746625/photo/1
ABC News Politics @ABCPolitics
NEW: ABC/WaPo tracking poll: Trump 43, Clinton 47. Support for GOP nominee lowest in 10 days, but race remains close.
c@t
I’m sure that’s pretty much how Shorten will be portray it. And it’s a message that will resonate.
Kay Jay,
Someone should go up to Sussan Ley and call her ‘Joe Blake’. ; )
darn @ #281 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 9:31 am
Perhaps just a desperate need to buy votes from the cross-benchers? I wonder if one of them is an anti-vaxxer who set this as their price?
Darn,
I’m sure that’s pretty much how Shorten will be portray it. And it’s a message that will resonate.
I hope Labor grab a hold of the issue with both hands because it makes true what they said before the election about the Coalition’s attack on Medicare and all it involves and represents.
Player One,
Perhaps just a desperate need to buy votes from the cross-benchers? I wonder if one of them is an anti-vaxxer who set this as their price?
You just don’t know any more with this government, so willing are they to trade away their principles for a vote. Just so they can look like they have achieved something, or even half of something.
c@tmomma @ #288 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 9:40 am
I do not want to revive the ladies parts rude words posts.
If one could buy a new supply of contempt for the despicable bastards among us; another avenue of revenue would open up. Truly – what are the mongrels thinking. I won’t bother with the definition of thinking. 🙂
Yes I’m at a loss as to why you’d ditch this. Surely at a time when we’re seeing pockets of the population refusing to vaccinate their children, a register for schools would be a good thing?
BK – Ta as always.
The delusion remains strong in this one:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/05/with-opponents-inside-and-out-theres-no-plain-sailing-for-malcolm-turnbull
According to Ms Murphy, Turnbull lurched to the right on refugees and renewable energy in order to not appear to the conservative wing of his party to be going soft by finding somewhere acceptable to some Nauru and Manus detainees (an announcement she assures us is coming shortly) and signing the Paris Climate agreement (also something that is on its way, even though it has not been to Cabinet yet).
I see Katharine Murphy has written another of her “if only those naughty Labor Party people and most of the Liberal Party would be nice to the PM then Malcolm would be a great prime minister” pieces. These are always fun because of the reader comments below.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/05/with-opponents-inside-and-out-theres-no-plain-sailing-for-malcolm-turnbull
sohar @ #296 Saturday, November 5, 2016 at 10:01 am
Katherine Murphy is the main reason I would not consider giving the Guardian any of my hard-earned money.
Even Hartcher can pinpoint the bleeding obvious about Turnbull, although he thinks that Turnbull can grow balls like he reckons Widodo did.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-can-learn-from-how-joko-widodo-got-out-of-his-funk-20161103-gshve2.html
This bit nicely sums up what happened:
It says something about Turnbull’s lack of judgement that he could have waited a little bit longer and seen everyone come to him begging him to take over leadership to save their miserable political skins, but he couldn’t cope with the risk.
Shorter Murphy:
‘Naughty Labor! You should just lie down and think of Malcolm!’
BK
I would like to add my thanks for everything you do for us here at PB. Your Dawn Patrol has become an integral of most Poll Bludgers’ days and for many of us you are the most valuable contributor here. (apart from William of course – don’t want to get offside with the boss).