BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

One new poll on voting intention and one on leadership ratings find the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintaining its recent boring form.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research. The Roy Morgan results that were reported in the previous post have been added to the leadership ratings, without effecting any change worth mentioning.

bt2019-2016-11-02

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 27
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  2. That idiot Trump will destroy the USA and the rest of the world.Profound words from Michael Moore.”Goodnight America.You have just voted for the last president of the United States.”

  3. TROG – I know that batteries are improving very fast. But how fast are actual solar panels improving. If I get solar panels now, will they be outdated in 5 years?

  4. The Birmingham and Day $2million gift gets more interesting:

    The pictures that question minister’s claim he didn’t know of Bob Day’s role at trades school

    Pictures of cabinet minister Simon Birmingham visiting a trades training school with Bob Day six months before the school received a controversial $2 million grant from the federal government have sparked claims by Labor that Senator Birmingham misled the Senate and should resign.

    The pictures, taken in May 2015, have placed a question mark over Senator Birmingham’s explanation at a recent Senate hearing about his depth of knowledge of the former Family First senator’s involvement in the North East Vocational College in suburban Adelaide.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-pictures-that-question-ministers-claim-he-didnt-know-of-bob-days-role-at-trades-school-20161104-gsi0cg.html

  7. antonbruckner11

    But how fast are actual solar panels improving. If I get solar panels now, will they be outdated in 5 years?

    Solar panels will be cheaper in five years, but they deliver value now. So you could buy some now, get the benefits, and then buy additional even cheaper ones in 5 years. It’s a bit like buying a car. If you can afford one today you’ll get the benefits – there is no point in holding off until they are even better in 5 years.

  10. Pictures of cabinet minister Simon Birmingham visiting a trades training school with Bob Day six months before the school received a controversial $2 million grant from the federal government have sparked claims by Labor that Senator Birmingham misled the Senate and should resign.

    The pictures, taken in May 2015, have placed a question mark over Senator Birmingham’s explanation at a recent Senate hearing about his depth of knowledge of the former Family First senator’s involvement in the North East Vocational College in suburban Adelaide.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-pictures-that-question-ministers-claim-he-didnt-know-of-bob-days-role-at-trades-school-20161104-gsi0cg.html

  11. MTBW
    Largely far more exposure of horrors (because it’s a great media mover) and greater recourse for victims. ‘Eccentric’ people of wealth got away with horrific stuff on a regular basis and you’d probably never even know about it unless you were from the neighbourhood.

  14. Apparently Simon Birmingham did not notice that Bob Day owned the training facility he was visiting, because he was too busy cleaning up the mess left behind by Doug Cameron and Labor.

    While he admitted that he had met the owners of the facility when he visited, he didn’t realize Bob Day, standing right next to him right through the visit, was one of them, and clearly Mr Day likewise didn’t think to mention it, despite receiving millions in grants and subsidies from the government of which Birmingham is a minister.

    Yes, Birmingham really does expect us to believe this.

    And if we don’t, it’s presumably our problem for having filthy suspicious minds. Shame on us.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-pictures-that-question-ministers-claim-he-didnt-know-of-bob-days-role-at-trades-school-20161104-gsi0cg.html

  16. Michael Rowland the tall slim bloke who shares the couch with Virginia Trioli on ABC News 24 Breakfast has also won an ABC funded trip to the good ole U.S.ofA. for the upcoming election.

  18. MTBW @ 3.20

    You realise that crime occurred over 30 years ago? All that has happened now is that the perpetrator has finally been brought to justice.

  27. I have a question for Pbers. Last night I was watching Shock Horror Aunty on the ABC. It had a segment with Max Gillies playing Kerry “The Goanna” Packer. There was a short film clip at the start showing Packer walking along a path with someone walking by his side. I am sure Packer’s companion was one MTB, our beleaguered PM.

    Did anyone else see it? If not, you could watch on iView and confirm or otherwise my observation. I don’t know if no one at the ABC was aware of the Packer – Turnbull connection when they put this program together or they just decided to make no reference to it.

    Another segment worth watching is the infamous “blood on your hands” interview between Richard Carleton and Bob Hawke. I don’t think any recent PM would talk to Leigh Sales the way Hawke did to Carleton.

    I am an original baby boomer so this historical reflection on ABC programming was within my time frame. Unfortunately I missed a lot of it first time around as my wife preferred to watch other programs.

    Watching this series (now finished) makes you realise how much the ABC has slipped in terms of putting original comedy to air. Since the Chaser there is really nothing new.

  28. David Leyonhjelm calls for repeal of 18C in return for his vote on industrial relations

    Senator says he is negotiating with the government on ‘trade-offs that increase individual rights and freedoms’

    Senator David Leyonhjelm has signalled he is prepared to trade his vote on industrial relations legislation for legal changes he says would increase freedom, such as repealing laws that prohibit racist speech.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/04/david-leyonhjelm-calls-for-repeal-of-18c-in-return-for-his-vote-on-industrial-relations

  29. Parliament, more than most workplaces, is not a good place for people who suffer anxiety and depression.
    I wish Mr Ludlam all the best for a speedy recovery.

  30. I thought I was just scared of Trump – but it’s his America I fear

    With the presidential election less than a week away, my once-composed optimism has given way to panic. Sheer, stomach-churning panic. You see, up until now I had done a somewhat decent job of not allowing myself to imagine the unimaginable: Donald Trump winning. But as election day looms closer, and the racism and sexism that infects Trump’s campaign is ratcheted up, it’s hard not to be terrified.

    This election has uncovered something vile about America. That so many people would support a despicable candidate is not news to those hurt every day by racism, sexism and xenophobia; we know it’s alive and well in our country. We’ve been dealing with it our whole lives. But to see this hatred on such flagrant, unapologetic display is something else entirely.

    I suppose my panic wasn’t about the possibility of a Trump win, after all. It’s about the reality of the moment we’re in, win or lose. It’s about the slime that’s risen to the top, the stink we can’t wash off with one election or one president. We don’t need to panic about the future, because the present already contains more horror than we can handle.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/03/donald-trump-america-fears-jessica-valenti-election-2016

  31. mtbw @ #174 Friday, November 4, 2016 at 4:18 pm

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-announces-massive-compensation-scheme-for-sex-abuse-victims-20161104-gsi5cv.html

    …Compensation will be capped at $150,000 and the Commonwealth will foot the bill as a last resort for institutions like charities and churches which no longer exist or have no capacity to pay.

    Religious organisations should be drained of every cent before taxpayers have to cover them.

  34. So Leyonjhelm says: I’ll vote for a bill I don’t agree with if you’ll give me something else. What a total weasel. Like something squishy you’d find under your shoe.

  37. Ph_Red
    Trump is a conman. A salesman whose product is himself. This isnt the first time Americans have fallen for this stuff. The Evangelists come to mind. The Mormans who, by and large are intelligent people, believe in the miracles of Joseph Smith. Its got something to do with “faith” and, now I think about it, Obama wasnt too different (except he is actually nice – i think).

    America really is exceptional, but on Tuesday I hope it settles on sensible.

  38. [antonbruckner11 Friday, November 4, 2016 at 4:36 pm
    So Leyonjhelm says: I’ll vote for a bill I don’t agree with if you’ll give me something else. What a total weasel. Like something squishy you’d find under your shoe. ]
    I don’t like to defend him but isn’t that the way all negotiations work?

  41. kevjohnno Friday, November 4, 2016 at 4:45 pm
    [antonbruckner11 Friday, November 4, 2016 at 4:36 pm
    So Leyonjhelm says: I’ll vote for a bill I don’t agree with if you’ll give me something else. What a total weasel. Like something squishy you’d find under your shoe. ]
    I don’t like to defend him but isn’t that the way all negotiations work?

    ******************************************

    Corruption is not bribery but bribery is corruption

    I have often noticed that a bribe has that effect – it changes a relation. The man who offers a bribe gives away a little of his own importance; the bribe once accepted, he becomes the inferior, like a man who has paid for a woman.

    Graham Greene

  45. thanks Vogon Poet
    Yes, I knew about the Packer-Turnbull connection. Thats what alerted me when I saw that vision.
    Still, we wouldn’t want too closely would we, might reflect badly on moderate Mals image

  46. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/us-hints-at-nauru-refugee-resettlement-deal/news-story/4360a6a1ca77942d96e7c22cc7d91a62

    US hints at Nauru refugee resettlement deal
    The Australian12:00AM November 4, 2016
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    CAMERON STEWART
    Associate EditorUnited States
    @camstewarttheoz

    The US has strongly hinted that it has been in discussions with Australia about the possible resettlement of refugees from Nauru to the US.

    The Australian last week revealed that refugees on Manus Island and Nauru will be offered permanent new homes in a handful of third countries, which could include northern hemisphere countries such as the US and Canada, as part of a multilateral resettlement deal the Turnbull government hopes to announce by the end of the year.

    The resettlement deal would enable it to drastically downsize the processing centres on Manus and Nauru by offering permanent settlement to most of the 1800-odd recognised refugees on Manus and Nauru.

    Sources told The Australian the government was in the final ­stages of negotiating the deals, of which several are understood to be in the northern hemisphere, suggesting the US or Canada may be being considered.

    In response to questions about whether Australia and the US had held discussions over the issue of refugees on Nauru, the US State Department’s East Asian and ­Pacific Affairs Bureau spokeswoman Connie Paik appeared to confirm that talks had taken place.

    In a carefully worded statement, Ms Paik said: “We are in regular contact with Australia and other countries that support ­humanitarian organisations and accept refugees for resettlement on a number of refugee-related ­issues. We encourage all countries to help create brighter futures for some of the world’s most vulnerable people by offering resettlement programs and alternative legal pathways for admission.

    “The US has been a leader both in providing resettlement opportunities for refugees and in galvanising others to do so. For its part, the US has ­increased the number of refugees resettled in the US from 70,000 in FY 2015 to 85,000 in FY 2016 and to 110,000 in FY 2017, a more than 50 per cent increase over two years.”

    Last Saturday, Malcolm Turnbull revealed that the Coalition government would introduce legislation to permanently bar refugees pro­cessed on Nauru and Manus Island from ever obtaining an Australian visa unless they first gained the immigration minister’s explicit permission.

    Alaska ?

  47. So, get on a boat to Australia to get to the US.
    Why not?
    Which part of the people smuggler business model does this wreck, exactly?

  50. KEVJOHNNO – You mean it’s alright to “negotiate” to vote for a bill that you don’t agree so that someone will vote for a bill you do agree with. I regard that as corrupt. You can negotiate over a bill to create a bill you do agree with. But an MP should not vote for a bill they disagree with.

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