BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

One new poll on voting intention and one on leadership ratings find the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintaining its recent boring form.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research. The Roy Morgan results that were reported in the previous post have been added to the leadership ratings, without effecting any change worth mentioning.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,330 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  3. Just a question: Before Hughes died, did anyone seriously think that a batsman wearing a helmet could actually get killed by a bouncer? Has anyone else been killed to a blow to the head while wearing a helmet?

  5. A@11.20 am

    I seem to remember at the time of Hughes’s death, the media came out with a number of other cricketers, who, over the years, had died or been seriously harmed by a cricket ball hitting their head. Now, whether this was before or after helmets I can’t remember. A cricket ball hurled at 140 km – and much slower – is, stating the obvious, lethal when it hits certain parts of the body.
    I guess this incident raises the whole question of the purpose of competitive sport, risk and balance of probabilities. In hockey, for instance, the ball is just as hard and probably hit just as hard. A rule exists which penalises dangerous airborne hits, but regardless such balls could do the same damage as a cricket ball. Meanwhile there are 22 people essentially holding clubs trying to hit the ball and, sometimes they miss and hit flesh!

  6. It’s always difficult to agree with anything put up by a Liberal, but I think this might have legs:

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-julian-leeser-proposes-18c-fix-to-throw-out-junk-race-hate-complaints-20161103-gshr8z.html

    The push from the right has been to emasculate the protections of the Human Rights Act. This proposal goes to the issue of abuse of process. I think there are problems with precisely what Leeser has proposed, but the underlying principle of streamlining processes, rather than attacking the substance of the protection, would actually strengthen the provision rather than weaken it. It should be remembered that the long winded processes, in principle intended to bring about a genuine conciliation, can be used by perpetrators to make life difficult for complainants as much as by complainants to cling doggedly to complaints bordering on the vexatious.

  8. Good to see the ABC getting rid of Catalyst, as science normally has a left wing bent.
    I’m looking forward to repeats of QI, as I just can’t get enough of Stephen Fry.

  9. Player
    Now by all means scroll past my stuff – but talk about pots and kettles re brevity.
    I have long been scrolling past you Census stuff – AND I AGREE WITH YOU.
    It seems to me most of you belong on twitter where simplistic sound bitea are all the go.

  13. That article of Uhlman’s looks like a 15 year-old’s high school project about “my trip to West Virginia.”

    Seriously, the state is deep red. It’s no surprise that they are voting for Trump.

  15. From the US satirical paper “The Shovel”.

    Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump has moved swiftly to remove the stench created by Australian Senator Cory Bernardi’s endorsement, saying he had no prior knowledge of the South Australian’s backing.

    “I have standards,” Mr Trump said in a carefully-worded statement today. “This is not the type of company I want to keep – I have an image to maintain here. People are free to make endorsements, but that doesn’t mean I have to accept them”.

    The Trump camp is acutely aware that an association with someone as ridiculous as Cory Bernardi is not a good look. At this late stage in the campaign, image-management is everything.

    Political commentator John Scotchmore said candidates were often judged by the people they associated with. “Trump supporters are willing to go along with some pretty crazy ideas, but there are limits,” he said, adding it was a ‘smart move’ by Trump HQ to move so decisively on the matter.

  16. Okay, so the Presidential election is the most important thing in the world at the moment and the ABC has so much cash to spare that they can afford to send Uhlmann over to comment. What happened to the internet connected world?

  17. I don’t understand. Why is ABC news constantly trying to boost the Trump campaign?

    I’ve been trying to work this out, too.

    From Australia we have no vote and no influence on the American Presidential campaign. So, it can’t be an outright attempt to influence the election.

    Sure, there are a few eligible American voters here, but surely not enough to make any kind of real difference to the election at home.

    This leaves trying to please someone, perhaps (as Guytaur suggested) News Corp. This would be in order to save them from some tedious, vexatious criticism for not being “balanced” or something like that.

    Or, the other alternative is pure “Click Bait” coupled with sensationalism.

    Everyone knows that Australians fear a Trump presidency in great majority, probably north of 75%. So support – whether grudging or whole-hearted – for Hilary Clinton would be pretty high here.

    If you keep up interest in the American election, and hence in watching reports of the election, and hence help to maintain the ratings, clicks and readership by running scare campaigns about a possible Trump victory, then you’ve done your job.

    Extreme coverage of every fart and burp of the Trump campaign, with October Surprises and Poll Shocks! thrown in simply gets more people interested and thus consuming your news product.

    I think it may be as cynical as that.

  19. It makes perfect sense to send Uhlmann to the US.

    If he worked in my office I would probably send him to Siberia, but West Virginia is far enough.

  23. Who ultimately funded the Toolman’s trip to West Virginia? The coal industry?
    It might be less hazardous to the environment to shut down the ABC and keep Hazelwood open.

  24. The only good outcome out of the Hughes inquest is the better/quicker medical protocols and procedures that will be put in place at cricket grounds around the country.

    Otherwise, the rest of the inquest was a waste of time. Hughes was simply unlucky and was hit in a spot batsman are rarely hit.
    Sadly it was just one of those things, it’s cricket, it happens (fortunately rarely with these consequences). Likewise the sledging, it happens in every game of cricket and within reason I’m ok with that.
    Hughes had problems with the short ball for years and was regularly peppered with the short stuff by opposition bowlers. He didn’t complain but he knew he had to get better at handling it, which over time he slowly did with a lot of hard work.

  25. News Corp isn’t going to blast them for not being balanced on a Trump presidency. Even most of News Corp readership thinks that US Republicans are nuts. 58% of Lib/Nat voters think Trump would make US relations with Australian worse.

    They are probably obsessively covering Trump for the same reason everyone else is: People are interested in Trump in a trainwreck kinda way.

  27. Personally, I can’t see any point in reading local media for information on the US election. There is little in-depth knowledge, and the coverage is even more superficial than it is of local politics. When the NY Times, Washington Post, fivethirtyeight and every other US media outlet is only a click away, what possible insight can a journalist in Australia give?

  28. There seems to be an effort to normalise and validate extreme political views. This serves to soften up the public for further shifts towards the neoliberal agenda.

    When media organisations like the ABC report breathlessly and without judgement that certainly assists in the process.

  29. Turnbull’s public events: domestic violence, Indigenous programs and today breast cancer.

    Meanwhile… in a warming world, Frydenberg can hardly disguise his inner horror at the closure of Hazlewood.

  30. In breaking news, the Greens have announced that overnight they closed every coal-fired power station in Australia.
    ‘Nothing to it,’ stated Di Natale smugly to the adoring plaudits of the Collective.

  31. I would imagine Tom Switzer’s on Insiders this week because he’s considered some what of an expert on the US.
    Personally I’d prefer Chas Licciardello.

  32. Di Natale went on to state that on Monday the Greens were closing Manus, on Tuesday they were closing Nauru, on Wednesday they were going to legislate marriage equality, and on Thursday they would close Olympic Dam.
    To enthusiastic cheering, Di Natale annunced that the Greens, the jobs done, would dissolve themselves on Friday.

  34. lizzie @ #122 Friday, November 4, 2016 at 12:38 pm

    TPOF
    Should we be suspicious that Petuna seems scared of any publicity?

    I’ve no idea. I actually have no knowledge other than what I read, or detailed interest other than my family is addicted to salmon. All I know is that Tetsuya used Petuna and they appear to make the best smoked salmon.

  36. The Shovel is an Australian satirical site, not an American one. I doubt that anyone in the US media has even heard of Corey Bernardi, let alone given two fifths of FA about his opinion on Clinton vs Trump.
    Perhaps when passing around the tin to fund Uhlman’s stay in America we can also add a bit extra to keep Bernardi there.

  42. “GOP mass purging of African American Democrats from voter rolls in North Carolina & Florida results in low turnout”

    margaret stuart md ‏@marstu67 · 20m20 minutes ago

    margaret stuart md Retweeted ViewFromWise

    Rs pulling out all the stops so we can’t vote. Go to the polls & fill out a provisional ballot, call the Authorities if not allowed to vote

  43. sbs news

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull concedes he doesn’t have the numbers in the Senate to pass the same-sex marriage plebiscite bill.

    But he remains hopeful.

    “At this stage more senators are saying they will vote against it, but we will continue to press the Labor party,” he told reporters in Hobart on Friday.

    How does he think he can “press” Labor to bow down?

  46. Simon K

    I just read a Tweet which urged voters to vote for Hillary by Twitter on voting day. Can’t remember the hashtag, but obviously another scam.

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