Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings fall to a new low amid an otherwise uneventful set of fortnightly Newspoll numbers.

Courtesy of The Australian, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result records no change to Labor’s 52-48 lead, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 39%, Labor up one to 37% and the Greens steady at 10%. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are at a new low, with approval down two to 29% and disapproval up one to 57% – the fifth successive deterioration in his net position, covering each Newspoll published since the election. Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 36% and steady on disapproval at 51%, while Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-30 to 42-32.

Also out today was a Roy Morgan phone poll that found 58% expressing support for “Muslim immigration” with 33% opposed, in contrast to an earlier Essential Research finding. There were also results of 66% support and 25% oppose for asylum seeker immigration; 77% support and 18% for skilled migrants; and 74% support and 21% oppose for family reunion migration. Other questions found 21% wanted the rate of immigration increased, 40% kept level and 34% reduced; that opinion was evenly divided as to whether immigrants made Australian life better or worse, at 32% apiece. The poll canvassed 656 respondents over 14, including 588 over 18. From the latter, two-party preferred voting intention was recorded at 55-45 in favour of the Labor.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The latest reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average finds Labor losing the point of two-party preferred it gained last week, bringing their lead back to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38%, Labor is steady at 37%, the Greens are down one to 10%, One Nation is upon one to 6%, and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady at 3%. Further questions find 36% support for re-establishing the Australian Building and Construction Commission, with 16% opposed, and 39% deeming the issue important, versus 38% for not important. Other questions relate to the threat of terrorism and appropriate responses, with 24% very concerned and 48% somewhat concerned about the threat of terrorism in Australia. Twenty-eight per cent said the government had provided appropriate support to Julian Assange and 26% that they had not (though there’s no distinction here between too much and not enough), with fully 46% opting for don’t know.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,111 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. The post #947 was a test of the copy and post emoji.
    Not a goer.
    I have tried most of the avenues for posting emoticons and/emoji.
    We are stuck with the ones from WordPress plus a couple of others.
    Musrum has made corrections in CCCP although he is yet to finish work regarding emoji.
    Nice try.

  2. Boerwar
    “All Roman Governors were venal.”

    Not all. Quintus Mucius Scaevola Pontifex (governor of Asia in the late Republic) was one of the better ones. He was popular with the common people of the province, largely because he punished greedy and corrupt tax collectors.

    But Mucius Scaevola was more the exception, not the rule. (He was later murdered at Rome due to political violence.)

  3. Meher Baby @ 1606
    I would imagine shareholders re Dreamworld would want this issue to go away quickly and quietly. That what ultimately is CEO Thomas responsibility is cruel as it seems and it is. Shareholders only care about the money… Their money

  4. The CEO performance today is a textbook case in failure to manage a disaster. Thomas comes across as incompetent arrogant and way way out of her skill set.

  5. As long as Dream World closes the particular ride and as long as it has done due diligence with the remaining attractions and as long as it keeps sealed off the bits the plods want sealed off, then I see no particular reason for it to remain closed.
    I recall a lively debate in Canberra when a patron died in one of the ACT’s restaurants. The survivors got on with their meal. There were points for and against, as I recall.
    Life goes on.

  6. Boerwar
    “OK. OK. Not ‘all’. Only around 99% of them.”

    Ha! It has to be said that most Roman Governors didn’t do very much – at least in the civilian sense. Most civilian power was exercised at the civic level (local towns or cities), not provincial. (This is one reason why Roman emperors loved to found new towns and cities – not just for personal aggrandisement, but for administrative & taxation reasons.)

    The ‘governor’ of Judea was different to most governors, because this province was so highly militarized. Pilate wasn’t really a governor, just a legate (he belonged to the equestrian, not senatorial, order). As ‘governor’ of a troublesome province, he was expected to be brutal – part of the job description.

  7. Afternoon all. It looks pretty clear from this that Senator Day is indeed insolvent. So why is he still in parliament, contrary to S44?
    “Documents from the liquidator of Senator Bob Day’s failed business show Homestead Homes, the South Australian arm, has more than 180 creditors seeking payment.
    Those owed big sums include Burns Ceilings ($745,804), Mannix Air-Conditioning ($406,815), Boral Construction Materials ($237,742), Northern Sand and Metal ($191,679) and Austral Bricks ($117,540).
    The tax office is owed $119,646 and Revenue SA $13,920.
    The estimated realisable value of Homestead Homes’ assets is put at $603,637, far short of a $10 million figure previously mentioned.’
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-27/bob-day-homestead-homes-180-creditors/7972350
    By coincidence the $1.8+ million owed in SA is remarkably similar to the amounts Day has reportedly donated to Family First. Clearly, Bob doesn’t take the bible too literally, at least not the bit about “giving to Caeser what is Caesers”.

    There is nothing in the constitution about delayed payment plans to allow bankrupts to stay in parliament. If he is insolvent now, he should be forced to leave now. In this case, justice delayed is very clearly justice denied.

    Also I raise again the question of his election. When he registered as a candidate, did he make truthful declarations about his eligibility to stand for election? Day did not acquire $1.7 million in debts in SA ($30+ million nationally) in the five months since ballots were opened in May.

  8. Socrates
    “Day did not acquire $1.7 million in debts in SA ($30+ million nationally) in the five months since ballots were opened in May.”

    Maybe a difference between time bankruptcy was ‘accrued’ and when bankruptcy was ‘declared’.
    Re being in parliament – agree Day should be thrown out on his ear.

  9. In relation to Trump’s groping, there was a recent-ish prime minister with much the same sort of reputation as Trump.
    I have had two women tell me of stories in which they were groped by said prime minister.
    From what I gather round the traps, they were not at all isolated cases.
    I have no reason at all to doubt their particular stories.
    For some reason that it not entirely clear to me, neither have gone public.
    Nor have what might be called a largish cohort of others.

  10. There is a cracker of a piece by Eva Cox on the Turnbull Government’s war on new mums.
    There is also a stimulating piece by Rundle on WHAT TRUMP REALLY MEANS.
    I am not convinced but it makes a tad more sense than some of the rubbish served up on Trump.

  11. The Federal Government never specifically investigated whether its backpacker tax proposal would hurt farmers and the tourism industry, or hasten the decline of working holiday makers entering Australia, a Senate inquiry has revealed.

    Treasury officials admitted their department did not have complete information about the ramifications of a 32.5 per cent tax on backpackers’ earnings, which was first proposed in the Coalition’s 2015 budget.

    They told a Senate Economics Committee hearing that Treasury’s modelling did not specifically forecast the impact of a higher tax on the national farm workforce, 25 per cent of whom are backpackers.

    Over the course of an hour on Wednesday evening, perplexed senators pressed Treasury officials for answers to seemingly straightforward questions only to be told the answers did not exist.

    In an aside after confirming Treasury had not modelled the impact of a higher Passenger Movement Charge on tourism, Labor senator Chris Ketter asked if modelling had been done on any other aspect of the package before the Senate.

    “I don’t believe there was economic modelling done of any of the aspects of this package,” Mr Ewing responded.

    But the farmers want this pushed through asap.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-27/treasury-officials-appear-at-backpacker-tax-inquiry/7971686

  12. psyclaw @ #919 Thursday, October 27, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    Kay Jay
    Thanks for the Johnny Cash memories.
    The song is said to refer to that well known Communist group, The Weavers. Founders Lee Hayes and another music wanna-be Mr Pete Seeger were brought before the House in the 1950s to answer for their most wicked Communistic tendencies, and for corrupting naive people who listened to their wicked music.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSDyiUBrUSk

    The Weavers at Carnegie Hall was the first record I ever bought, and it is still a treat to listen to.

    I saw Pete Seeger perform solo in Montreal in 1967, he was fantastic, and had the audience in the palm of his hand. What a performer.

  13. The Victorian government will introduce a licensing scheme for labour hire companies in response to a report that found “outright exploitation” of agency workers particularly in the horticulture, meat and cleaning industries.

    Victorian industrial relations minister, Natalie Hutchins, announced the scheme on Thursday after tabling Anthony Forsyth’s independent report into labour hire and insecure work in parliament.

    Forsyth concluded that “rogue” labour hire operators frequently breached laws through underpayment of award wages, tax avoidance, non-payment of superannuation, poor occupational health and safety practices and maltreatment of workers and backpackers on visas.

    The inquiry heard of health and safety issues in the horticulture industry, including seasonal workers expected to work long hours with untreated boils on their legs because of poor diet and some who experienced sexual harassment and uncompensated injuries in the workplace.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/27/victoria-to-introduce-labour-hire-licensing-scheme-to-stem-exploitation?CMP=soc_568

  14. And, things being what they are, may I clarify by saying 1) I’m not suggesting that Keating is the ‘recent-ish’ PM Boerwar refers to or 2) allegations of sexual assault against a former PM are a trivial matter.

  15. It will be interesting to see the attendance numbers if/when Dreamworld reopens. Hopefully we won’t see the rubbernecking element taking selfies in front of that ride which should be well fenced off at this time of

  16. Re. Lack of modelling for impacts on backpacker tax changes, I would look at who originated the idea, if from treasury, then they should have had the modeling done in advance.
    If from the government i.e a revenue raising idea of the treasurer or finance minister, did they ask for modeling (and a subsequent delay)? Or did they just say it was going ahead and would be included in the budget regardless.

  17. “In relation to Trump’s groping, there was a recent-ish prime minister with much the same sort of reputation as Trump.
    I have had two women tell me of stories in which they were groped by said prime minister.”

    It was Julia Gillard, right?

  18. player one @ #953 Thursday, October 27, 2016 at 5:16 pm

    These people are simply unbelievable …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-27/dreamworld-unable-to-open-on-friday-due-to-police-investigation/7972424

    Now they are backtracking about opening tomorrow (they presumably had an appalling reaction on social media) but instead of acknowledging they made a mistake, they are claiming the police intervened and forced them to change their plans. The police deny intervening.
    Astounding insensitivity.

    What a pity P1 does not run everything.
    No mishaps of any kind would ever occur .
    We would have a perfect census.
    But if the impossible occurred, she would know exactly what to do balancing all the competing demands of lawyers, insurance companies, the interests of the company, employees of the company and finally the bereaved relatives and witnesses.

    Clearly she has never had to managed a difficult situation with lots of competing demands.

  19. The NT Labor Government has recently introduce PH for Xmas/NY. Naturally the hotel lobby is upset:

    “The Northern Territory will introduce two half-day public holidays on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve.

    Under the scheme, there will be penalty rates for people who work between 7:00pm and midnight on Christmas Eve or New Year’s Eve.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-25/new-half-day-public-holidays-on-christmas-eve-new-years-eve/7962070

  20. Really Boerwar, P1’s right.

    A little humility, some not-so-corporate (i.e. human) responsiveness would be welcomed by the company, and perhaps even a few tears. Whenever I hear some corporate hotshot say “The families are in my prayers” I reach for my gun.

    That, and the declining (or redirection) of the $800,000 bonus might have ameliorated the situation somewhat.

    “Shit happens” – sounds so “detatched” doesn’t it?

    FOUR PEOPLE ARE DEAD you moron. Chewed up and turned into mincemeat in front of their children and many other witnesses.

    Have a heart (if that’s possible).

  21. “While id Dreamworld is shonky of safety it deserves to have the book thrown at it, have you lot the slightest idea the employment impact if it were to close!!!!

    There are probably 5,000 people working there. The place is bloody huge”

    This is exactly the reason there are unsafe rides operating at these parks in the first place. Too much money is at stake for visitor safety to take priority over park operation.

  22. blanket criticism @ #987 Thursday, October 27, 2016 at 6:30 pm

    “While id Dreamworld is shonky of safety it deserves to have the book thrown at it, have you lot the slightest idea the employment impact if it were to close!!!!
    There are probably 5,000 people working there. The place is bloody huge”
    This is exactly the reason there are unsafe rides operating at these parks in the first place. Too much money is at stake for visitor safety to take priority over park operation.

    The board is ultimately responsible in its governance role to ensure that safety and all other issues are properly attended to by management. It is the role of a board to provide that oversight of management.

  23. John Hewson on the front foot:

    To some extent, I am blamed these days for the lack of political courage. My Fightback package, running to hundreds of pages of policy detail, is now easily dispensed with as “the longest political suicide note in history”. I am easily tagged as being politically naive.

    But, even so, it is stretching it to now go to the other extreme, running in fear of saying very much at all! Especially as the policy drift has meant that the magnitude and urgency of the issues/challenges is much greater today than was the case in the early ’90s.

    Fear only works, sustainably, in a leadership vacuum. The outcome of the last election, which saw Turnbull’s standing collapse relative to the enormous expectations with which he assumed the prime ministership, was much more about his failure to deliver the expected leadership than his stand on any particular issue.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/theres-an-obvious-way-for-malcolm-turnbull-to-beat-the-politics-of-fear-leadership-20161026-gsbp73.html

    I’m liking this bloke more, as the years pass by.

  24. bushfire bill @ #966 Thursday, October 27, 2016 at 5:43 pm

    I finally clicked on one of those “Canadian Spinning Tops” ads at Fairfax.
    Sheesh!
    WHAT A WANK!

    I have a lot of bit and pieces for the grand children to play with should they visit.
    I have a magic yo yo alloy supa dupa – f..ing useless.
    I have various tops, some of which work well.
    I have a, really nice looking aluminium (I guess) top which comes in a tin with a bonus die. I think this is the Canadian Spinning Top. Presumably the die is to work out when to slit the wrist because the top is nowhere near as good as what you might get with a Christmas cracker. There is no wet joke or party hat in the tin either.
    I also have an egg cracker which looks really good. It does not crack eggs.
    I do have some can openers, all of which work just fine including the $2 model from Coles.
    I have just managed to smash my shower door into many pieces. Time to check whether to slit the wrists. 😥

  25. ctar1 @ #993 Thursday, October 27, 2016 at 6:44 pm

    Sounds a bit ‘iffy’ –

    Stephen Herczeg: Nurse could not have confused oxygen and catheter tubes, coronial inquest told

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-27/stephen-herczeg-may-have-switched-oxygen-catheter-tubes-inquest/7971702

    It was actually the first thing that occurred to me.
    The second thought was amazement that the fittings were compatible.
    Apparently the relatives went ballistic at the suggestion.

  26. Re the post on Pete Seeger. There is a brilliant doco on Pete on Youtube called The Power of Song. It is well worth watching even for those that don’t like Seegers music. Link is here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Czk2hj4VISg
    I know I was going to download it – but when it came time I just sat and watched the film in its entirity. Couldn’t turn it off.

  27. BB
    When is it appropriate to re-open Dream World? Some people say tomorrow. Other say wait a week. Maybe two weeks. A month? Two months? Never? You obviously think that it should be longer although you do not say just how long. Fair enough. I don’t. I think it should be a shorter period. Your personal abuse of me is unwarranted, IMO.
    My view about death, and my experience of it in public places, and what it means is obviously different from yours.
    Around 3200 Australians die each week or around 450 a day. Every year significant numbers die in shared public places, the workplace and in tourism venues.
    I have worked at public/tourist places where people have died – at times in distressing circumstances and at times with with some pretty horribly physical results, speaking from direct participation in helping find and pick up the pieces.
    It is routine that only the bits of immediate interest to the police were closed: the rest remained open. And the death scenes were opened then to thousands of tourists immediately the police allowed so. No-one bats an eyelid.
    I assume that the vast majority of the Dream World employees will be casuals per hour employees who will not be being paid while it is shut.
    I see no particular reason to turn Dream World into an ad hoc mausoleum or public shrine or anything else.
    Much of the reporting of the deaths at Dream World has given me has been bizarre. It has been little better than death porn. Phrases like ‘outpouring of grief’ by the ‘nation’ are weird, to put it mildly.
    Princess Di arrangements of flowers from total strangers who are then interviewed breathlessly by the MSM to close the circle, ditto.
    FWIW, the Dream World corporate response has been shite.

  28. “The board is ultimately responsible in its governance role to ensure that safety and all other issues are properly attended to by management. It is the role of a board to provide that oversight of management”

    Oh absolutely, but the question remains as to whether they fulfilled this responsibility, or if something was lost in translation along the way. In my experience the culture of these organisations is one of pretending everything is working flawlessly in order to cover your own arse and therefore reports stop somewhere along the way as they travel up the chain of command. The bigger the organisation the bigger of a problem this is. I’m sure someone has come up with a name for this phenomenon at some point, but I don’t know what it is.

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