Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The weekly result from Essential Research finds Labor’s lead reaching heights not seen since the last days of Tony Abbott.

The latest weekly reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average records a widening of Labor’s two-party lead, which is out from 52-48 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 37% and Labor is up one to 37%, with the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 5% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 3%. Quite a few interesting supplementary questions this week:

• Respondents were asked to retrospectively evaluate major government decisions, recording big majorities in favour of Medibank/Medicare and compulsory superannuation, lesser but still favourable results for the GST, floating the dollar and free trade agreements, an even balance on reducing subsidies to car manufacturing, and strong opposition to the privatisations of Qantas, Telstra and the Commonwealth Bank.

• There is an even balance of opinion on the New South Wales government’s backflip on banning greyhound racing, with 41% approving and 38% disapproving.

• Seventy-nine per cent would be “concerned” if Donald Trump became President, with only 14% not concerned.

• With a plebiscite off the table, 55% say a vote should be held in parliament, while 30% say the matter should be left on the table until the election.

• Sixty per cent said they would support a tax cut for small businesses, with 17% opposed; almost the exact reverse say the same for larger companies (20% and 61%); and if small business was taken to apply to companies with upwards of $2 million revenue, 26% would be in favour and 41% opposed.

• Fifty-eight per cent approve of Labor’s 50% renewable energy target by 2030.

• Fifty-eight per cent are “not confident” that the government together with the current Senate will be able to get things done that the nation needs.

• Thirty-five per cent expect the government will run full term compared with 39% who expect an early election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,641 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. The asked the local ABC shop what the problem was given that there were always lots of shoppers in their shop and the answer was the rent.

  4. I was under the impression that the ABC shops themselves (separate from the ABC Shop sections of Dymocks etc) were not profitable.}
    It all depends on how you (want to?) measure it.

  8. Guthrie just admitted in #SenateEstimates closing #ABC shopfronts has meant the organisation has lost a valuable revenue stream.

    So I guess they’ll just have to put ads on the ABC to make up for the Revenue shortfall then, so the logic will go.

  16. Herewith an integrated critical analysis of the Dylan literary phenomenum:
    Dylan’s lyrics are so bad he has to hold his nose while singing them.

  17. Millennial
    Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 7:19 pm
    victoria @ #56 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 7:06 pm

    I see that the NXT MP and Ms McGowan voted for the ABCC legislation

    Does that mean all of the NXT Senators will also, or are they allowed to vote against the party line?

    My guess is that the amendments Xenophon wants could still be a sticking point in the Senate if they are knocked back.

  19. I am watching A Current Affair. It is about Senator Bob Day and his shonky business practices. Would have been bloody nice if ACA did this expose before the last bloody election, cos apparently they had been investigating complaints by customers for 18 bloody months!! For goodness sake, they could have reported on this months ago and stopped this pathetic excuse of a human being seeking re election in a DD. Not forgetting that this shameless person even took the matter to court re the Senate voting changes. ACA in the safety of Bob Day already having resigned, do the story. Sigh…….

  25. Mitchell gone. Hill gone. Lewis gone. Three automatic picks.
    No 1 and No 2 best and fairest.
    It is all a bit like an ISIS special operation.

  34. Darn,
    C@t

    How are you able to get through the AFR paywall? It never works for me.

    Well, it came from a Twitter link. So maybe that had something to do with it. Sometimes, if the link is in the dawn Patrol, I just open an Incognito Window and it’s okay.

    If you are interested, I will put the article up here. : )

  43. Some words from Dylan:

    “They will tell you of how much they don’t need you. If you do not show any sadness at this remark, they will immediately tell other people of how much they do not need you…You will become the whole topic of conversation. Needless to say, these people who don’t need you will start hating themselves for needing to talk about you.”

    How much must some people here hate themselves?

  44. bk @ #1219 Tuesday, October 18, 2016 at 12:43 pm

    Here is how quickly a lever action gun can fire. (Remember the Rifleman series from all those years ago?). The Adler shotgun is a 7-shot lever action shotgun
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ppXe5q88Dk

    Thank you BK. That was not only educational, it was frightening.

    The difference between an automatic and lever action appears to be close to academic.

  46. This from a man who was supporting the ABCC all the way. What a disgrace

    Family First senator Bob Day, who has announced he is resigning from Parliament, needs to answer questions about the collapse of his nationwide building empire, the South Australian Government has said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-18/bob-day-home-australia-liquidation-questioned/7944380

    Home Australia was placed into liquidation on Monday, leaving more than 200 houses unfinished and hundreds of creditors awaiting payment.

  50. PP
    Pap is as pap does.
    Poetry is as poetry does.
    Dylan does mucho pap.
    There are real poets out there who write real poetry.
    They have been skun.
    They starve in their garrets while a guy who already has $200 million pockets another three quarters of a million.
    Popes extol the virtues of poverty while living in unimaginable luxury.
    Dylan sings poor but hugs the Man.
    You do get it, don’t you?

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