Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A new poll suggests voters want parliament to legislate for same-sex marriage if they can’t get their favoured option of a plebiscite, as the Coalition primary vote maintains a slow downward trend.

This week’s Essential Research finds the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 37%, Labor steady on 37%, the Greens steady on 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the Nick Xenophon Team steady on 4%, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 in favour of Labor. The poll also finds 53% favouring a vote by parliament on same-sex marriage in the event that the Senate blocks a plebiscite, with only 29% opposed. Support for the proposed plebiscite question, “should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?”, is at 60% with 30% opposed, compared with results of 57% and 28% when the same question was posed a month ago. Only 22% of respondents supported the goverment’s plan for $7.5 million of advertising to be provided for both sides of the argument, with 68% opposed. When asked about the biggest threats to job security in Australia, 31% nominated “free trade deals that allow foreign workers into the Australian market”, 23% companies using labour hire and contracting out, 18% the impact of technological change, and high wages in last place on 11%.

In other news, I mean to start shaking myself out of a spell of post-election laziness, so I’ll have BludgerTrack back in one form or another next week. In the meantime, I have the following to relate:

• The Australian reports that factional arrangements ensure that Stephen Conroy’s own sub-faction of the Victorian Right will decide his successor when he vacates his Senate seat on September 30. That seems to bode well for his ally Mehmet Tillem, who previously served in the Senate from late 2013 until mid-2014, when he served out David Feeney’s term after he moved to the lower house seat of Batman at the September 2013 election. However, some in the party are said to be arguing that the position should go to a woman, specifically to Stefanie Perri, the former Monash mayor who ran unsuccessfully in Chisholm at the recent election.

• A draft redistribution proposal has been published for the Northern Territory’s two electorates, in which early 3000 voters are to be transferred from growing Solomon (covering Darwin and Palmerston) to stagnant Lingiari (covering the remainder of the territory). The transfer encompasses Yarrawonga, Farrar, Johnston and Zuccoli at the eastern edge of Palmerston, together with the Litchfield Shire areas around Knuckey Lagoon immediately east of Darwin. This is a conservative area, so the change would strengthen Labor in Solomon and weaken them in Lingiari.

• A redistribution for the five electorates in Tasmania is in its earliest stages, with a period for preliminary public suggestions to run from November 2 to December 5.

• The Liberal National Party announced last week it would not challenge its 37 vote defeat in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, despite complaints from Senator Ian Macdonald that the Australian Eleectoral Commission had promised hospital patients it would take their votes on polling day without delivering, and that students outside the electorate were denied absent votes because the required envelopes were not available. The 40-day deadline for lodgement of a challenge closed on Saturday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,992 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. victoria @ #2598 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 10:20 am

    C@t
    What is totally illogical with Brandis is the suggestion that denying a plebiscite is denying SSM. Why are we having a plebsicite if this is the expected outcome?

    That is the whole problem with the status quo position there is no logic to it.

    The arguments are based on religious dogma or blind adherence to it or a conservative dislike and opposition to change.

    None of these should, logically, be considered as valid positions supporting no change.

    If it was an exercise in logic, as it should be, there would be little debate as the arguments in favour hugely outweigh any that exist against.

    The only weapons they have are the classical Liberal tactics of fear and confusing the issues.

  3. I have a clever plan for Mr Malcolm Bligh Turnbull.
    When making speeches to strangers in furrin countries, he should employ the services of sign language translator. The fake one that performed at Nelson Mandela’s funeral should be excellent.
    When the brilliant speech is being shown on Adrian’s ABC the sound should be off. Friends and neighbours should gather to guess at the original speech. Cheap plonk (or bombo) and booze to suit the participants should be available in large quantities. The last person standing should receive a prize – probably the remnants of the happy juice.
    What’s not to like about this? 🙄
    Does anybody use the term “bombo” these days?

  4. DTT

    I agree that Corbyn (or any other leader) should not act to dis-endorse dissidents. I am undecided as to whether they should be given Shadow Ministries – probably some should.

    However I suspect the local selection committees will act anyway to dis-endorse some of the worst offenders.

    On this bit we can agree.

  6. ‘What’s not to like about this?’

    Well it shouldn’t just be restricted to speeches that his Magnificence gives to the grateful foreigners, but to all his utterances, especially on radio.
    I for one would welcome silence, and I would definitely win the prize when competing with myself.

    BTW, I would recommend for personal listening to ABC radio on the move, a set of good quality headphones with a remote pause function. Whenever Mal or one of his mates appear to give the commoners a lesson on reality as we never knew it, you can opt for silence, which is normally far more enlightening.

  7. Meanwhile here in Victoria, The firefighters dispute is not letting up. Apparently the wife of the Chief Fire Officer has sent an email to shockjock Mitchell stating that he resigned because of bullying by the union. He has an autoimmune disease which he developed 8 years ago, and stress makes it worse.
    Also, it has been reported that the former minister Garrett attempted to orchestrate a coup against the Union boss Marshall.

  8. Kay Jay

    Yes, I know “We’ve Done Us Proud” well. GC is a long times friend and we have sung that song with him on numerous occasions, assisted and unassisted (by red stuff in a bottle).

    He will be performing at Cessnock on Nov 4, and Wyong Nov 6.

    That you know this song and the man who wrote and sings it is testament to your wisdom, taste, and human spirit.

    Here is Graeme singing the song as the finale at the CMAA Golden Guitar awards in the 90’s, joined by the man he wrote it for, Mr David Kirkpatrick of “Homewood”, Nulla Nulla Creek, via Kempsey NSW. In those days Ch 7 was doing the recording and was not really top notch, as you can hear.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S5MShNF23c

    Here is one of Mr Kirkpatrick’s final videos, with the title song from his last album, shortly before he passed away. He is seen reminiscing in his home at St Ives,Upper North Shore, Sydney.

    No doubt you remember his nationally broadcast funeral from the place many VIP NSW people make their final exit, the prestigious St Andrews, next door to Sydney Town Hall. The crowd was huge outside, flowing down George St in both directions.

    Graeme Connors sang Amazing Grace during the ceremony …. not one of my favourites but the family wanted it.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkM4BqWdXHI

    PBers who don’t have a look at this link have a great gap in their knowledge of Aussie history.

    BTW the newly established Slim Dusty Museum just south of Kempsey is a magnificent showpiece …. a quality tourist drop off as good as any similar in the world.

  9. ‘trump is a motor mouth. Will he shut up long enough to give anyone else a go’

    More to the point, will the rules and moderator be equally fair to both sides.
    Isn’t it being staged by Fox?

  10. KayJay

    On watching News in languages you don’t understand – I’m also amused at times trying to work out what they’re on about.

    Hungarian always good!

  11. Trump is a motor mouth. Will he shut up long enough to give anyone else a go?

    The Presidential Debates are serious business and so are subject to rules of engagement. There is time given, strictly policed, for answers, and a right of reply. I would hope the Moderator could shut off Trump’s mike if he tries to ramble on in support of his greatness. : )

  14. Adrian,
    Here’s an answer to your question about Moderating the Presidential Debate (it looks like it’s on NBC):

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/09/25/how-to-moderate-a-presidential-debate.html?via=newsletter&source=WeekendDigest

    CBS’s Elaine Quijano for the Oct. 4 vice presidential candidate debate, CNN’s Anderson Cooper and ABC’s Martha Raddatz for the Oct. 9 town hall in which voters will question the presidential candidates, and Fox News’s Chris Wallace for the final Oct. 19 presidential confab.

    So, only one on Fox.

  15. The New York Times editorial board aim the bazooka at Trump

    “When Donald Trump began his improbable run for president 15 months ago, he offered his wealth and television celebrity as credentials, then slyly added a twist of fearmongering about Mexican “rapists” flooding across the Southern border.

    From that moment of combustion, it became clear that Mr. Trump’s views were matters of dangerous impulse and cynical pandering rather than thoughtful politics. Yet he has attracted throngs of Americans who ascribe higher purpose to him than he has demonstrated in a freewheeling campaign marked by bursts of false and outrageous allegations, personal insults, xenophobic nationalism, unapologetic sexism and positions that shift according to his audience and his whims.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/26/opinion/why-donald-trump-should-not-be-president.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

  16. I think tomorrow’s presidential debate will be critical. Currently Clinton is just one state ahead for victory (Colorado the tipping point according to Nate). If tomorrow Trump stays sane then it is a real threat. Similarly if she has a health scare (although I think the Dems could swing this to a positive if they tried). I doubt they could do any more damage with emails and Flowers etc – this is already old stuff.

  17. Bushfire Bill
    I watched the Howard on Menzies and didn’t mind it at all a bit of history never bothers me. It brought back memories for me my Grandfather Dan Curtin who was widowed at the time took my Mum his only child to Canberra with my sister and I went with them.
    We were very young Patty Menzies minded us in the lodge while he was delivering his speech.

  18. Sprocket

    I think that just as in Australia, the news media is having less influence on public opinion. All the papers in the world supporting Clinton and opposing Trump probably will not influence many voters. It is as if they have shut down re the media. Celebrities may have MUCH more impact.

  20. MTBW

    Yes I watched most of it – not the early part. It was not too bad – hagiography for sure, but historically interesting. The cleverness of the State Aid issue surprised me – I had not seen it in quite that way before. I also rather liked his speech regarding greed and living for the community not oneself.

    His friendship with his aboriginal driver was also interesting – but probably overdrawn a bit. I had not realised that the credit crunch of 1961 was as a result of a deliberate and stupid government action.

  23. psyclaw
    #2609 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 11:06 am
    My dear wife really liked “We’ve done us proud”. We often performed it for our own pleasure. I also like the other one I mentioned from Mac Davis. I am a “Mac” and yes, it’s hard to be humble.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    That you know this song and the man who wrote and sings it is testament to your wisdom, taste, and human spirit.
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
    You, sirrah, are a master bsartist. I am but a poor apprentice and only get to practice on the ladies at the bread shop, the chemist shop, the wonderful folk at the local public hospital including the doctors. Still I do my best. We have a tough audience here wanting to talk about mad things like politicians. Say “no more”. 🙂 ❤️ ❤️
    Yes, I knew and know who David Kirkpatrick was and remains still in the heart of our country.

  24. Is this true? I’ve been out.

    Australian Unions Verified account 
    ‏@unionsaustralia
    BREAKING NEWS: Turnbull govt’s Productivity Commission has handed down report paving way for large scale privatisation blitz.

  25. ctar1 @ #2611 Monday, September 26, 2016 at 11:08 am

    KayJay
    On watching News in languages you don’t understand – I’m also amused at times trying to work out what they’re on about.
    Hungarian always good!

    Hungarian you say. I’ll give it a try tomorrow. Last week while waiting to see my doctor at the local hospital with my favourite in law I mentioned that I liked to watch SBS foreign news. Barry surprised me by saying that he also had a look at the foreign language news from time to time. Certainly better than the BS on English language TV on occasions. A very good day to you as well. I think I had better get together a few Italian, Hungarian phrases to add a bit of pseudo gravitas to my little ramblings (designed to fool nobody). 😎

  27. Hi everyone

    It’s fascinating to see how the “Fancy Bears” hack is currently blasting a hole through the credibility of competitive sport around the world.

    This revelation is rather startling.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-26/wiggins-cycling-rival-says-doping-situation-stinks/7876350?section=sport

    Maybe treatment regimes in Britain are quite different to those in Australia, but it was my understanding that injecting corticosteroids was very much a last resort for the most severe asthma cases: the sorts of people who – far from being able to compete in competitive cycling races – would struggle to take in enough oxygen even to walk up a flight of steps,

    I note Wiggins’s defence that his use of this substance was entirely medicinal. Nevertheless, I think this story – and those of the many other leading athletes around the world who have been given these “Therapeutic Use Exemptions” – is just going to run and run.

    Maybe my view of things is overly harsh, but I would have seen chronic asthma requiring such intensive treatment (as opposed to exercise-induced asthma) as representing a natural physical barrier to excellence in road cycling: eg, like being too short to play basketball professionally, or too slow to be a sprinter.

  30. MB – I agree.
    The whole idea of sport is that one is physically excellent. How are you physically excellent if you have a condition like asthma which limits your competitiveness. As you say, what’s the difference between that an playing basketball professionally.
    Another big issue is the secrecy surrounding this “doping”. If sports stars were getting medical exemptions, why wasn’t that made public? It obviously wasn’t because the authorities knew there would be an outcry.
    It seems that “Fancy Bears” is a pun on FSB.

  35. Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@billshortenmp: The middle ground is straightforward on marriage equality, have a vote in parliament #auspol http://snpy.tv/2d2iwnS

    Sky News Australia
    39m39 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    @billshortenmp: This government has set up a marriage-equality process guaranteed to fail #auspol http://snpy.tv/2d2gynA

  36. I see Steve Irons, member for Swan (WA) has been up to his old tricks again.
    Not content with charging the taxpayer with travelling to a golf championship, and to see his son play AFL in Adelaide, he’s now been exposed for charging the taxpayer for him to attend his own wedding in Melbourne!

  37. MB @ 11.58

    The world of professional sport has been dirty for as long as there has been professional sport. For all its faults – and it has many – the current world drug testing and cheat exposing regime is the best in my life time. Still far from great and with more holes than Swiss cheese, but at least it is not so much the farce it has been since the Berlin Olympic Games when it first became a subsidiary of politics.

    I see this hack and release of information by the Russian FSB (hence the name Fancy Bears) as being in the same category as Trump’s campaign in the USA. A totally corrupt entity starts to point fingers at particular people, with a few falsehoods and irrelevancies thrown in to spice it up and make it reportable, solely in order to discredit any worthwhile investigation into the really big corruption out there.

    Human beings are much more comfortable with the anecdotal, where the single instance represents the whole, than with a broad cloudy, foggy miasma of criminality and moral disease. These hacks and Trump’s candidacy feed into that human propensity for the interesting story over the boring reality.

    What does it matter if the former mistress (more than two decades ago) of the husband of the current Presidential candidate turns up to the Presidential debate. What possible relevance could that have for the governance of the USA from 2017? I know some specious arguments have been put that somehow go to Hillary Clinton’s character as a potential President, but that is a prejudice looking for justification.

    Yet this has been the single most reported matter around the debate that is to take place in the USA tomorrow our time. What patsies the press are and the ordinary people who run with what they put up. Of course, it contains ‘sex’, so maybe that’s why they run it.

    And the relevance to these hacks on WADA is the same. If the WADA regime has problems with how it decides exemptions – then of course these should be addressed. But people who comment on these need to be aware that they are being played for patsies by vile criminal propagandists by allowing their attention to be deflected away from the serious criminality – which, in this case, is the State-organised criminal enterprise of feeding performance enhancing drugs to athletes on an industrial scale and using the State to deliberately cover-up the use of these drugs. Russia is not the only country that is doing this on a widespread national level. But they are the most brazen cheats. And they ruin lives – not only that of legitimate competitors but their own people, as survivors of the GDR mass doping regime can testify.

  38. Instead of ‘negotiating’ on anything, the Coalition makes a decision, publicises it, then strikes an attitude and demands that Labor give them a list of their suggested changes. All guaranteed to look as if Shorten uncooperative.

  40. Lizzie

    If the public use critical thinking, they would come to the conclusion that Turnbull are co are talking crap. They say team Labor is the one standing in the way of ME. Why have a Plebsicite if this is the expected outcome?

  49. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis · 12m12 minutes ago

    Dreyfus (after meeting Brandis) says the government is not prepared to compromise on the plebiscite.

  50. Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis · 12m12 minutes ago

    Dreyfus (after meeting Brandis) says the government is not prepared to compromise on the plebiscite.

    See? Told ya!

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