Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The only pollster currently in the game finds Labor retaining its modest post-election, and finds opinion finely balanced on superannuation reform and nominating Kevin Rudd for United Nations Secretary-General.

Essential Research, which is still the only polling series back in the game after the election, records Labor maintaining a 52-48 lead in the latest reading of its fortnightly rolling average, with primary votes also unchanged at Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 10% and Nick Xenophon Team 4%. Also featured:

• Support for nominating Kevin Rudd for Secretary-General of the United Nations was finely balanced at 36% for and 39% against, which was predictably split along party lines.

• Thirty-seven per cent said Tony Abbott should resign from parliament; 25% that he should be given a ministry; and 21% that he should remain on the back bench. A similar question in March found 47% saying he should quit at the looming election, with 18% saying he should be given a ministry and 15% that he should remain on the back bench.

• Capping after-tax super contributions backdated at $500,000 recorded 29% approval and 34% disapproval.

• A question on groups that would be better and worse off under the re-elected Coalition government returned the usual results, with large companies and the high-income earners expected to do very well indeed, small businesses somewhat less well but still net positive, and various categories of struggler expected to do poorly.

• As it does on a semi-regular basis, the pollster asked questions on trust in various media outlets. However, this asked specifically on reportage of the federal election campaign, dropped separate questions for the news and current affairs as distinction from talkback programming of “ABC radio” and “commercial radio”, and in the case of the newspapers, dropped the normal proviso that respondents be be a readers of the paper in question to qualify for inclusion. This led to much lower levels of trust being recorded for the newspapers across the board, while the radio results split the difference between the higher results that are normally recorded for news and current affairs, and the lower results for talkback. As far as relativities are concerned, the results as before find television the most trusted medium, public broadcasters favoured over commercial ones. However, The Australian did not perform significantly better than News Corporation tabloids, as it has usually done in the past, whereas the Fairfax papers continued to record somewhat higher levels of trust than News Corporation ones.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,123 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  3. Nicole

    [I witnessed all the internal bickering, the pointing of fingers seeking someone to blame, the vitriol, etc. etc. I thought Labor had learned the lessons of the past and moved on. Then I come in here and it’s still going on. If only some of you could be a fly on the wall and see yourselves. Pathetic. Get over it or in opposition is where you will stay or you will get in only to stuff up your chances all over again.]

    How about you have a good, hard, long, look at yourself before you start casting stones.

    You have your biases, just like everyone else, and they’re on display; for everyone to see.

  5. I think it is telling that Trump not only wont release his taxation records, he wont release his medical records. Although if the US public discovered that their Presidential nominee had treatment for mental conditions, would it matter to them?

  6. [Why are so many of you so angry all the time?]
    1. Low fibre, high sugar diet
    2. Reality TV
    3. Globalisation
    4. Not enough cuddles.

  7. kop @ #10 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 5:34 pm

    Whatever views people have of Rudd, one thing is clear – he has been treated in an appalling manner by this PM. If MT had told KR on day 1, you not suitable for the job and I would not be supporting you, I think that the matter would have rested there. This PM has no capacity to make a clear cut decision. Besides don’t underestimate him – he is mean and vindictive.

    That is exactly the point I’ve been making. It may be argued that Rudd is not suitable for the UN job, but that question is irrelevant to the issue of why our current Prime Minister misled him about his, Turnbull’s, personal support for Rudd to seek the UN SG post.

  8. Bemused

    I don’t hate Rudd. I just think he’s a dickhead.

    And I thought that back in 2007.

    Never liked the egotistical maniac.

  9. nicole @ #19 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 5:55 pm

    kezza2 @ #11 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 5:34 pm

    But Nicole, so feverishly tying herself to the Ruddista Cult

    Enough! My criticisms have been universal and applicable to anyone. Stop projecting your own biases onto me. I would be saying the exact same were it Julia Gillard seeking endorsement, an ex-Lib, anyone. Enough with your misrepresentation of me.

    Fair call too. I’m really sick of the rush to ad hominem abuse of anyone who expresses a considered contrary view to that held by someone else. Someone who pokes in with a smarmy offensive comment (looking at you Rex and Compact) may be fair game. But surely people should be allowed to put something fairly argued without being abused as a cultist, Ruddist, Gillardist and worse.

  10. Kezza
    Thanks for bringing up Bob Hawke.

    His nickname was the “silver bodgie.” Not exactly a bogan but close. As far as I know he wore it with pride.

    Hawke of course was not strictly a bogan but he adopted that persona. Hazel was not a bogan.

    My point is Kezza is that Gillard supporters are being way, way, way over sensitive. So Gillard is bogan, Rudd is a nerd, Pyne is effite, Turnbull a silver tail, Cameron is Scooorrrrtish, Whitlam and Fraser both described as patrician. These are all personal attributes that give people colour and personality.

  11. TPOF,

    PB has always been a robust forum and I don’t see that changing much unless the moderator does something about it.

  13. GG

    Interesting piece about the China/US conflicts in the South China Sea. The comments are worth a gander as well.

    Amongst other bizarre elements in its post-RAN history, our own HMAS Melbourne was “studied” by the Chinese (it had been sold for scrap and ended up in China) and supposedly incorporated into their new design…

  14. kezza2

    For Kev to claim that Turnbull had said it was AOK, and then it was a cabinet decision, and then, behold, it was a captain’s call, and then the release of all the so-called communications, just speaks to Rudd’s verified, vindictive scatter-gun approach.

    In fact, if you read Rudd’s May letter, which is quite cogent, it speaks to Turnbull’s total inability to keep his commitments. Whatever Rudd’s faults, Turnbull’s erratic conduct was not Rudd’s fault. It was all Malcolm and totally consistent with his conduct on a whole range of things in the last nine months since he became PM.

  15. Wot Simon and TPOF said.

    Some simply can’t see the point because they’re blinded by hate, although it’s not really hate, more intense dislike, or thinking someone’s a total dickhead or something.

  16. BK
    #62 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 6:49 pm

    Until Sonia Kruger opened her moth on Muslims I had never heard of her.

    Same + I wish she’d kept her mouth shut.

  17. kezza2 @ #29 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 6:08 pm

    Nicole

    My criticisms have been universal and applicable to anyone.

    No, they haven’t, actually. Go back and read your own posts.

    No, they have, actually. I am not confused about my position. You are.

    Stop projecting your own biases onto me.

    I’m not.

    Anyone who sees me as having a Rudd bias is projecting their own bias onto me as I have been a supporter of them both and critic of them both. I am in no camp and have stated such on numerous occasions.

    I would be saying the exact same were it Julia Gillard seeking endorsement, an ex-Lib, anyone.

    Nothing you’ve said to date would verify that statement.

    Maybe your bias blinkers have made you skip the many times I have emphasized this then, because I have many times placed emphasis upon just this.

    Enough with your misrepresentation of me.

    You haven’t been misrepresented. You’ve painted your own picture. And you’ve aligned yourself with the Ruddistas. So be it.

    LOL, so now you are saying I paint your perception, that you play no part in what you see.
    My picture shows a whole different vista in which no such camps exist. I do however see a kinda nasty seeming bunch of gossip mongers with chips on their shoulders hanging out in their usual spot under a tree over yonder. I wish they’d get over themselves.

  21. sprocket_ @ #55 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 6:36 pm

    I think it is telling that Trump not only wont release his taxation records, he wont release his medical records. Although if the US public discovered that their Presidential nominee had treatment for mental conditions, would it matter to them?

    They should feel relieved if they found Trump was seeking treatment. 😐

  22. Can we please have a “Scrappers” thread for those who enjoy scoring points but bore the rest of us rigid with their constant personal attacks!!

  23. greensborough growler @ #61 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 6:49 pm

    TPOF,
    PB has always been a robust forum and I don’t see that changing much unless the moderator does something about it.

    Even though ‘robust’ is an overused euphemism, it still does not have to mean gratuitously offensive at every turn. And yes, it is up to William to decide who can say what on his blog and not us, which is why I don’t tell people what they are allowed to say but ask nicely for people to tone it down. Which, of course, I’m entitled to do unless William decides such pleas are inconsistent with the tone he wants for his blog.

  24. Support for nominating Kevin Rudd for Secretary-General of the United Nations was finely balanced at 36% for and 39% against, which was predictably split along party lines.

    Well that is interesting. Presumably the more Rudd continues his campaigning the more people will be sick of him and public opinion will oppose his candidacy even more.

  25. Came across this while leafing through a Herald-Sun (apologies, it was on the staffroom table…)

    file:///C:/Users/family/Downloads/the-victorian-happiness-report.pdf

    Lots of interesting stuff – Victorians are, apparently, very happy people; wealth does not buy happiness (once a household’s income hits $40k, there’s no discernible difference in their happiness ratings…); if you’re against multiculturalism and suspicious of migrants, you’re considerably more miserable than if you’re tolerant and acceping; less surprisingly, happiness and health are linked.

  26. Until Sonia Kruger opened her moth on Muslims I had never heard of her.

    I’d heard of her but I can’t remember what her claim to fame is. I’m wondering if she’s a former athlete in the mould of that swimmer/marathoner who back when Hanson first came to prominence was a very public supporter of hers. Tracy something.

  29. TPOF,

    All that is in the eyes of the beholder.And, people clearly have different standards and views about such matters.
    You can demand, cajole and plead till your heart breaks.
    But, as I said, it ain’t going to change.

  31. GG

    EG,
    We’ve got those Chinese expansionists right where we want them!

    Yes it’s a secret plan to take out half the Chinese destroyer fleet…

  33. Thanks, DN – when I googled, I got a PDF. (I didn’t want to traumatise posters here by using the Herald-Sun article as the link…)

  34. fess,

    She was “Tina Sparkle” in the film “Strictly Ballroom” and subsequently hosted “Dance with the Stars”.

    So, as you can see, she has perfect credentials to provide intelligent comment about Muslims and National Immigration Policy.

  37. kezza2 @ #53 Tuesday, August 2, 2016 at 6:35 pm

    Nicole

    I witnessed all the internal bickering, the pointing of fingers seeking someone to blame, the vitriol, etc. etc. I thought Labor had learned the lessons of the past and moved on. Then I come in here and it’s still going on. If only some of you could be a fly on the wall and see yourselves. Pathetic. Get over it or in opposition is where you will stay or you will get in only to stuff up your chances all over again.

    How about you have a good, hard, long, look at yourself before you start casting stones.
    You have your biases, just like everyone else, and they’re on display; for everyone to see.

    Yes, I do and have no trouble admitting so. Now let me bat that ball back over. Your turn.

  40. Bogan (n): The term bogan (/ˈboʊɡən/) is an Australian and New Zealand slang word used to describe a person of lower working-class background, whose speech, clothing, attitude and behaviour exemplify values and behaviour considered unrefined or unsophisticated, similar to a chav.

    So someting like the ‘Paul Hogan’ public persona.

    As a Labor person from a working class backgtound, I would never use such a snobbish term, even if I was tempted to apply it to Tony Abbott.

  42. Caught a CH9 recap which said the majority of cabinet backed Rudd. Nothing on ABC (or here). JBish setting the record straight?

  46. On the subject of ‘bogans’ (were I to use the term), Pauline Hanson was on “Dancing with the Stars” at one stage. Not as host, as a dancer (or maybe a ‘star’).

  48. JBish setting the record straight?

    Didn’t she try that before and Morrison contradicted her, like almost straightaway? Talk about a viper’s nest!

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