Two points to emerge from our friends in the polling community, which passed notice while I’ve been diverted by close counts:
• ReachTEL has published a helpful table illustrating pollster accuracy, which is sporting of them given the attention it calls to the eye-watering accuracy of Newspoll. However, all concerned did very well in predicting a two-party preferred result which, by my back-of-envelope reading, will ultimately settle at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition. Essential and especially Ipsos overshot on support for the Greens, with the latter landing around 2% too low for both major parties, but the only other substantial errors involved the balance of support between the Liberals and the Nationals, which I don’t regard as particularly important. Electorate polls were a different matter, and will be looked at in greater detail when all the results are in.
• On the Tuesday evening following the election, Roy Morgan conducted an SMS poll poll from 3587 respondents on leadership approval. The poll had Malcolm Turnbull with a narrow 51-47 lead as preferred prime minister, which the Morgan release sets up for comparison with a 57-24 result from May. However, the May result was an interviewer-administered phone poll, a method evidently less conducive to a “neither/can’t say” response. The poll also found Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott by 71-25 as preferred Liberal leader, and Anthony Albanese leading Bill Shorten 49-48 for Labor.
Now to an exercise I’ve conducted to get a clearer sense of what sort of areas did and didn’t swing. The chart below shows results of a regression analysis on 6582 polling booth results in which two-party swing data was available, which excludes the 14 electorates where the AEC’s two-party count is not between Labor and the Coalition. The purpose here is to discern if the swing to Labor was more or less evident in areas with particular demographic characteristics. The results record a big move back to Labor in the ever-volatile mortgage belts; an apparent failure of the Abbott-to-Turnbull leadership switch to improve the Coalition’s standing in ethnic communities; and better swing results for the Coalition where voters were wealthier and better educated, and – perhaps more surprisingly – older.
After the constant and starting with “Age”, the table lists the associations between polling booth swings to the Coalition, which in practice usually means negative results recording swings to Labor, and five demographic variables for the census districts in which the booths were located. All but one of these variables, English spoken at home, records a statistically significant association with the swing, as indicated by a score of less than .05 in the significance column on the right. The “B” coefficient of .001 for “Age” tells us that areas with a median age of 40 would generally swing 1% more favourably for the Coalition than areas with a median age of 30. “MFY” stands for median weekly family income and is measured in thousands, so the coefficient means swings tended to be 0.3% stronger for the Coalition for every $1000 of average household income. “School” represents the percentage of the 18-plus population who had completed high school, every point of which associates with nearly 0.1% of swing in favour of the Coalition. Conversely, Labor did 0.02% better for every percentage point of mortgaged dwellings.
The five demographic variables are followed by geographic ones that are there to ensure the results for the demographic variables aren’t influenced by regional differences in the swing, particularly those from state to state. Sydney is excluded so it works as a baseline, so the coefficient for Melbourne tells us that the Coalition would typically do 2.6% better there than at a demographically identical booth in Sydney. Finally, two variables are listed to control for retiring member and sophomore surge effects, which prove to be significant in both cases. “LNPgain” was coded 1 where the candidate was a Coalition sophomore and -1 where a Coalition member was retiring; vice-versa in the case of Labor sophomores and retirees; and zero where neither applied. “ALPloss” was coded 1 where Labor lost the seat in 2013 and 0 otherwise, to measure the boost to the sophomore effect in seats where Labor had a sitting member defending last time. The results suggest Coalition members who won their seats from Labor in 2013 did 2.2% better in swing terms than other Coalition candidates, which reduces to 0.5% in seats where they were replacing retiring Coalition members.
To observe these effects in action, the four tables below identify the 15 highest and lowest ranked electorates by the four statistically significant demographic indicators, and show their two-party swings to the Coalition where available. The lowest education electorates, all of which are regional, were 4.0% worse for the Coalition than those at the top of the scale, of which all apart from Fenner in the ACT are near the centres of the largest cities. Median age was more of a mixed bag — old electorates are regional, but the young ones encompass inner cities, mortgage belts, enclaves, a defence town and the largely indigenous seat of Lingiari. Nonetheless, the distinction here is as great as it was for education, and not in the direction that might have been anticipated from a touted backlash over superannuation policy.
The lowest income electorates, all of which are regional other than two in Sydney, recorded an average 3.5% swing to Labor, only slightly above the national result. But the results for the Liberals were well above average among the wealthiest electorates, over half of which swung in the Coalition’s favour. The mortgage effect is more modest, with 2.8% separating the averages for the top and bottom fifteen. Electorates at the top end of the mortgaged dwellings table are all in the outer suburbs of big cities, but the bottom end is a dissonant mix of regional and inner-city areas, producing a wide range of swing results.
The extent to which this exercise actually explains the results is illustrated by the chart below. For each electorate, the result the model would have predicted is plotted on the horizontal axis, and the actual result is plotted on the vertical. The electorates identified by name are those where the Coalition most under-performed or over-performed the prediction. Keep in mind that this accounts for regional as well as demographic factors, so Lyons shows up as a strong Liberal performance because the swing there was lower than in the other three Tasmanian seats included (remember Denison is not included due to its lack of two-party swing figures). Most electorates’ results were within 2% of the prediction, but a good many had results where alternative explanations are substantially required.
raaraa @ #84 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 10:48 am
Actually, that paragraph you quote does not make any sense. What does “they agreed to put Liberals ahead of Labor on their how-to-vote cards” mean? Surely it refers to their votes.
There is some other interesting content though:
And to answer you question about “how campaign directors find out information like these”, people reveal such information in phone calls and it is all noted for later reference. A painstaking, slow process, but one that pays off.
When it comes to Sophie Mirabella, thank goodness there is one less Liberal woman in federal parliament.
Actually, Sophie Mirabella goes to the exact reason there aren’t as many Liberal women as Labor women winning seats. The Liberals choose players. Julie Bishop and Michaelia Cash are prime examples of this.
If you compare the pair, Labor women are shining examples of success in struggling against adversity and prevailing, or fighting the good fight on behalf of the disadvantaged, or champions of their demographic in society, or all 3 like Linda Burney.
Who are the sorts of women the Liberals put up?
A former ABC TV reporter.
The daughter of a WA Liberal grandee and former State Liberal Government Minister.
A woman lawyer who made her name defending a multinational corporation against workers affected with Mesothelioma.
A Conservative Catholic warrior, who sees parliament as the forum to wage her ideological battles.
A few Farmers or Farmer’s Wives.
Some more lawyers.
And my Local Member, the only female Lower House MP in NSW apparently, according to Laura Tingle today, a Communications graduate and former PR spiv for Telstra.
Slim pickings. And obvious ones too.
However, all adept, it seems, at political parlour games and sledging the other team. Policy development seems to be handed to them by the men.
Yes, Marise Payne is a Defence policy wonk, but the political decisions in her portfolio seem to be handed to her from above.
Sussan Ley I can’t get my head around. A country girl who had a choice between the Nationals and the Liberals? She would be more at home in Labor. Maybe she made a strategic decision to go with the team that had the best chance of success in her local area.
Still and all, no Fulbright Scholars in the Liberal ranks of women. Definitely no Rhodes Scholars. No former Human Rights lawyers at the UN. Julie Bishop did pay to go study at Harvard Business School though. : )
zoomster:
I switched off after the interview with Bishop.
Imacca
Let alone the two women of Aboriginal heritage – two more than the diverse bunch that makes up the Liberal party.
What’s the most diversity the Liberals can offer? A woman who isn’t an ex lawyer, perhaps?
daretotread @ #97 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 11:29 am
Feel free to feel cranky with me or any other emotion. I probably deserve it. 😛
‘Sussan Ley I can’t get my head around. A country girl who had a choice between the Nationals and the Liberals? She would be more at home in Labor.’
Ah, but look at her C.V. . Everything she’s done has been all about Sussan, not about other people or her community.
Raaraa
Clover Moore should ask members of the medical profession what they thought of the Pearled one’s running of the AMA.
player one @ #96 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 11:25 am
I don’t live in Sydney but from what I read of her and from people I know who live in Sydney, she seems OK. I’ll be interested to know of opinions of her contrary to that. Genuine question.
c@tmomma @ #102 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 11:36 am
ABC Reporter – Maxine McKew ring any bells for you?
I think Tingle might have meant the only returning Liberal female lower house MP for the Liberals, even thought that is wrong (Gilmore and Anne Sudmalis). Because I can name two other females without much effort. Emma Hussar in Lindsay and Susan Templeman in Macquarie.
Ides & ddt
Criticism of Bishop’s clothes-horse presentation has little to do with sexism. It is far more a critique of the LNP’s presentation of serial lacquered shells of Corporate Women (Bishops B & J, Credlin, Cash, Scott etc.) as candidates – all with as little competence or substance as their male LNP colleagues, but with the added requirement that they fit the Corporate PR stereotypes of their Daddy-worshiping masters (and Gina). Turnbull is the male equivalent. Abbott was too – of the MAMIL variety. Little Johnny the Rodent was of a different sub-type: the fundamentally immoral suburban solicitor and enabler, charged with keeping the nasty secrets of the family fortune safely hidden away.
bemused @101
Fair points. If the article means 56 households in the seat in Melbourne then those preference won’t be distributed, but if it means over a wider area that have a chance of a Labor-Liberals TPP, then 56 doesn’t seem all that much in the scheme of things. In the seat of Deakin, my impression is it is a Lib safe seat anyway.
In regards to WeChat, I know a few relatives who use it, but I don’t consider them politically interested, but hard to say aside from a few anecdotes. I am a bit disappointed though that I’ve seen some evidence of scaremongering on it based on twisted information or outright lies.
Ides of March,
Julie Bishop is fair game because of the continual sledging she does of Labor women. Take today’s effort, for example.
Anyway, I think that it is fair comment to comment upon the appearance of a politician who never seems to age and why that might be.
It’s nothing particularly out of bounds in this day and age. Whole magazines are written every week along similar lines. So why should politicians be exempt? Why should they be a protected species?
I hope you have noted that I do it to the male politicians as well.
It’s because we are a very image conscious world now. I also do it because it highlights the woman’s vanity and the fact she is refusing to accept the fact of her aging and embrace it.
As it seems Theresa May has in Britain.
Sorry, but I just think the eternal coquette schtick, and the methods that are being used to perpetuate it are lame. Thus I am merely pointing it out. It is an observation simply, like any other.
Pauline Hanson on Q&A tomorrow night. Shoot be a hoot! 😆
I don’t know how my computer got it but it was under attack from a virus that constantly directed me to spurious webpages. I tried everything to overcome it. It must have got into Chrome extensions and then blocked off access to them. I got a live chat going with Norton Utilities who took over my machine and rotted out the problem. Watching it happen was frightening as it identified and removed all sorts of stuff.
I have never regretted my Norton subscription.
c@t
from my own perspective, JBishop actually looks older than she is, even if she is doing heavy duty botox!!
C@
A 4-6 week study course and most likely paid for by the legal firm she was a partner in.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/32073353/french-truck-attacker-was-a-violent-depressive-who-never-went-to-mosque/#page1
From this and the 4 Corners report we had last week, it seem some of the people IS has had an impact with doesn’t even care too much about the religion.
The person seems to be a mentally disturbed man from what is described.
raaraa @ #111 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:00 pm
I thought it was clearly referring to Deakin.
Well Labor held Deakin until the 2013 election so I don’t know why you regard it as safe Liberal.
The best way to create a safe Liberal seat is to call it that and give up.
Labor should be going full on after Deakin, Chisholm, Latrobe, Corangamite and Dunkley whenever the next election is held. And it should maintain the pressure in all other seats, particularly those in the next tranche of marginals.
bk @ #114 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:03 pm
I long ago decided that Norton was a virus.
Ides of March,
Come in spinner! I was hoping someone might point out my hypocrisy wrt Sarah Henderson and Maxine McKew. You may even want to add Clare Martin, former NT Chief Minister and former NT ABC presenter to the Labor list.
However, I did add Henderson to prove that not all ex-ABC presenters that go on to politics are Labor.
As far as Emma Hussar and Sue Templeman go, they are Labor Women. My point related to Liberal Women Lower House MPs in NSW. But yes, Ann Sudmalis in Gilmore fits the bill.
So, get out the streamers, the Liberals Lower House representation in NSW has just increased 100%!
BK:
I had something similar happen to my laptop a couple of years ago. A PBer put me onto Malwarebytes and (touch wood) I’ve not had any issues since subscribing to them.
c@tmomma @ #112 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:00 pm
I do notice you do it to both male and female pollies, so i’m not trying to call you out as a sexist or anything. As for Bishop and ageing, we are all guilty of trying to either hide our age or what we may call flaws. That cant be denied. However, the increased focus on pollies and their vanities (especially women such as Gillard’s hair or jackets, or in this case Bishop and botox) is depressing and trivializes politics. I’m also not saying pollies should be a protected species from criticism but it shouldnt be about what dress they wear, if they cut their hair, or something as dumb as if their shoes are polished or they have a leather jacket on a tv show. I also appreciate how because of what Bishop has said about female Labor MP’s you view that as an opening to attack her. The problem is, that you’ve sunk to her level and there is already enough of these sad and tired attacks.
The Federal Government has taken the first step towards reviewing Labor’s plans for marine reserves.
Management plans signed off by Labor have been scrapped, including exclusion zones that would have come into effect next July.
But the boundaries of all marine reserves and parks will stay in place while a scientific review is carried out.
…”So the parks remain, but there’s greater freedom in usage and a scientific process going forward.”
Anyone who ends sentences with the useless expression “going forward” loses 20% credibility for me.
But then, this is Greg Hunt. Treble it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-13/coalition-scraps-labor27s-marine-parks-management-plans/5156674
raaraa
I don’t have an opinion of Clover herself, never having met her. But I am critical of her stewardship, which has been very partisan and parochial, seeming to concentrate only on a small part of the city and essentially serving only her own constituency. She has spent 12 years as Lord Mayor of Sydney indulging in nonsensical things like installing bicycle lanes at great cost and inconvenience (which then had to be ripped out because they went nowhere and no-one used them), throwing fancy new year’s eve parties for her supporters on the public purse, and trying to close down pet shops. Overall public amenity, public spaces and public facilities in Sydney have all gone backwards under her tenure. If you compare Sydney to Melbourne over the last decade, Sydney has become much worse in terms of livability, whereas Melbourne has become much better. Perhaps I ascribe too much blame to her personally – but at the very least most people would admit that her tenure has been a period of inaction and stagnation that has seen Sydney drop far behind other comparable cities.
Ides of March
We are a social species, not a group of robots (yet). The behaviour of other humans is of interest, especially when it gives clues as to their attitudes and behaviour. I think you’re over-reacting.
bemused @ #118 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:08 pm
My bad. I only made that assumption because Sukkar had a PV of 50+%. Deakin and Chisholm may be leaning Liberal now of demographic changes and the rise of property prices, but not impossible for Labor to grab back given the right circumstances. Melbourne Ports, Higgins and Kooyong are seats to watch too, given Victoria’s soon to come redistribution. They may or may not become more progressive from population shifts.
Great work William. Is it possible to have a list of variances for the seats that were > +/- 2%
Such variance would likely indicate that local factors were strong and I am sure the less partisan PBers could add some interesting thoughts.
player one @ #124 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:24 pm
Can’t quite say I’m qualified to say this, but aren’t the bike paths on state roads? Local roads don’t often have the kind of traffic to make too much difference to justify having them ripped out once more rather than let them stay. Happy to be told I’m wrong.
lizzie @ #125 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:27 pm
Over-reacting? I’ll give you over-reacting! … I guess my point is that their behaviour is interesting, but lets criticize them (pollies) for their words, actions, policies and beliefs. I’m not even female but my god I spent most of 2010-2013 cringing – along with a lot of people on the Labor side im sure – about criticism of Gillard for what she wore. If I then turned around and criticized Bishop for botox i feel im being hypocritical.
The City of Melbourne too have been a bit of a mixed bag under Robert Doyle’s stewardship. I don’t quite agree with all he has to say, but sometimes he’s willing to put his own opinions on the line against the standard Liberal think-tank and go with something the Labor government has proposed.
That being said, I’ve seen the City of Sydney and City of Melbourne be pretty small in the scheme of things as compared to mega-councils like Brisbane CC.
Perhaps she has taken off somewhere in her light plane!………
AshGhebranious
AshGhebranious – @AshGhebranious
It has been 3 weeks since the election and still no one has seen or interviewed Sussan Ley #insiders #health #auspol
4:50 PM – 16 Jul 2016
18 RETWEETS13 LIKES
Is a large difference between modelled and actual swing in an electorate a measure of personal votes for or against either candidate? Or, where these disparities are in NSW or WA, a measure of how inexact a science it is when the AEC calculates notional margins after a redistribution?
Ides of March,
Sorry, but I am not one of those who does anything to try and hide my age, or my flaws. I make the best out of what I have going for me at any particular time. Yet I still receive compliments. Maybe it’s a subset of self-confidence? Maybe the most powerful woman in Australia should try it for a change?
Plus, I don’t accept the characterisation that, by commenting on her apparent need to resort to chemical anti-ageing enhancement, that I am stooping to her level. As I commented previously, and as you appear to have overlooked, for whatever reason, my assessments are simply that, objective assessments. My opinions are also simply that, opinions as to why she feels the need to keep doing it, especially when it is so obvious. No getting on down in the gutter with Julie about it. I simply find it intriguing from a sociological perspective. That such a powerful woman has such a lack of confidence in her aging self. Though I will add that a lot of women who were beauties in their youth do find it hard to accept that a rose ages and eventually dies.
I must also add, for the record, that I remember a time when the Liberals used to attack Labor women simply because they didn’t resort to any type of enhancement to their appearance. Until it seemed obvious how shallow that criticism was. I guess some of the older Liberal Women are still hung up on that mindset. : )
Just in the nick of time for the Olympics… oh… wait…
raaraa @ #126 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:27 pm
No, not your bad at all. We are seeing things from different perspectives and you may well turn out to be right!
I draw lessons from past experience and believe that there are many people in higher income demographic groups who are persuadable. If we do the work we can win them over.
That is the challenge in seats like Chisholm and Deakin and maybe, depending on the redistribution, my seat Bruce.
I have to say that one of our biggest challenges is the effective demonisation of unions by our opponents. Even some (most?) of the Liberals I met on pre-poll duty agreed more with Labor policies than the garbage the Libs present as policy. One argued vehemently against any privatisations of anything anywhere ever!
But we always got back to their big sticking point, THE BIG BAD UNIONS! But in reality it was a fiction and a caricature they believed in. We must overcome this.
Anyway, take up with Briefly while I am away. Off to enjoy myself playing with my granddaughters on this bright sunny day. 😀
Qanda
Coming Up – Monday, 18 July
Simon Birmingham – Minister for Education
Sam Dastyari – Labor Senator for New South Wales
Larissa Waters – Queensland Greens Senator
Nick Xenophon – NXT Senator for South Australia
Pauline Hanson – Queensland Senator-elect
raaraa @ #130 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:33 pm
Saw this and must comment before dashing.
Doyle is a consummate politician and capable of working well with Labor Govts. I think he is good value.
Hanson will be shown to be sorely out of her depth.
c@tmomma @ #133 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:39 pm
First paragraph – I’m happy for you (not sarcastic) if you dont feel the need and probably means you are either very confident or very sensible. I’ll let you decide which one applies (or both!) As for powerful women in Australia, i’ll let them make their own decisions on their appearances. Its not my place or my want to.
Second paragraph – I take your point on commentating on why she may do it, and why you are interested. But if we use it as part of a political attack, when there is way better arguments (policies and actions) then I feel we have sunk to the same level. Maybe I’m still just a little bit too hopeful and not completely cynical that politics in general wont resort to silly personal attacks on appearance.
Third paragraph – Thats atrocious and despicable. It is exactly the same line of attacks I wish would be stopped. To go further, attacks on people claiming they arent fit to lead because they are not married or have no children are just as bad.
confessions Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:50 pm
“Qanda” Coming Up – Monday, 18 July
Simon Birmingham – Minister for Education
Sam Dastyari – Labor Senator for New South Wales
Larissa Waters – Queensland Greens Senator
Nick Xenophon – NXT Senator for South Australia
Pauline Hanson – Queensland Senator-elect”
Hanson will be shown to be sorely out of her depth.
*********************************************
Surely she has to be a bit more ‘entertaining’ that the robotic stooge Birmingham ????
victoria @ #136 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:45 pm
On a completely frivolous point, aren’t they technically all senator-elects given we just had a DD?
lizzie @ #125 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 12:27 pm
You are being extremely fair if you are including the libs in the human category.
SkyNewsAust
PM @TurnbullMalcolm says ‘there is work to be done’ on the implementation of super reforms #auspol http://snpy.tv/29XUkDQ
Meanwhile
Sky News Australia
2h2 hours ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@SenJohnston says retrospectively adjudicating people’s super entitlements is ‘repugnant’ to voters
KayJay
Oh yes, I meant it in very general terms.
I just prefer to observe some of our species from a great distance. 😆
This whole issue of a Labor primary vote in a full preferential voting Westminster parliamentary system is crazy. It is one of those memes that has taken on a life of its own as a result of constant repetition, but divorced from the reality of changing times, policies, demographics and big picture drivers (like the fall of Communism, the rise of global concern about global warming, global movements of people and the rise of inequality in the first world).
One of the things that is particularly telling is demographic patterns, so that historically Labor seats go Liberal or, in a few circumstances, Green as previously hideously undesirable locations become incredibly desirable through gentrification and proximity to cities. Thus, the move to Green in Melbourne, Melbourne Ports, Batman and Wills – and in all probability the loss of Chisholm to the Liberals.
But people will rabbit on about how irrelevant Labor is becoming because it is losing these seats – ignoring the fact that it has won a whole slew of seats in other locations where the people it is most focussed on now live.
This presents an opportunity but is also a problem as quality representatives struggle to defend increasingly marginal seats. Mind you, this is a problem for the Liberals too, as John Howard found in 2007.
TPOF
Not forgetting it is the only party to actually hold 68 seats in its own right. Meanwhile Turnbull has a coalition of libs, nats, LNP etc.
“Simon Birmingham – Minister for Education
Sam Dastyari – Labor Senator for New South Wales
Larissa Waters – Queensland Greens Senator
Nick Xenophon – NXT Senator for South Australia
Pauline Hanson – Queensland Senator-elect”
I’m going to get shot down for this but minor parties Mp’s and senators in my opinion get way too much air time. How many times has Jacqui Lambie or Bob Katter have been on Q and A compared to Catherine King or Michael Keenan.
People who suggest that minor parties struggle for media coverage are kidding themselves. I know I’m going to hear the reasons they got a certain percentage of the vote in the the electorate. But if you see how many politicians Labor and Liberals have in caucus compared to small amount these minor parties have, they get way too much air time.
c@tmomma @ #25 Sunday, July 17, 2016 at 8:54 am
Racist bigotry having failed to provide a reliable living, Hanson is now flogging religious bigotry instead. She will fail with this too.
What a bunch of ratbags…..
lynlinking
1h1 hour ago
lynlinking @lynlinking
Turnbull tight-lipped on donations
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/turnbull-tightlipped-on-donations/news-story/9335b4372f831afa0304026d02713ecd …
raaraa
You are both right and wrong. Clover Moore has spent millions of dollars of city funds on local bicycle paths, and also lobbied for millions of dollars of NSW state government funds to build connecting paths on state roads. Baird stupidly agreed to provide the money, then had to tear out the bike paths when they proved to be impractical and dangerous. And of course, without the necessary connecting paths, many of the local cycle paths go nowhere. A shambles.