Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the election suggests the result has delivered a blow to Malcolm Turnbull’s public prestige.

Essential Research’s fortnightly aggregate keeps on rolling, this one combining results from polling conducted over the weekend of the election itself, and in its indecisive aftermath over the weekend just past. The result is little changed, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 41%, Labor down one at 36% and the Greens steady at 10%, but two-party preferred has nudged to 51-49 in Labor’s favour. Also included are leadership ratings, and these are particularly interesting in having been conducted only over the past weekend. They suggest that Malcolm Turnbull has taken a knock, with his approval down three to 37% and disapproval up eight to 48%. Bill Shorten is up two on both approval and disapproval, to 39% and 41% respectively. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 40-29 to 39-31. In the event of a hung parliament, which we now know won’t happen, 33% would have favoured a Coalition minority government, 36% would have favoured Labor, and 21% would have preferred a fresh election. Fifty-one per cent consider a fresh election likely in the next 12 months, versus 28% for unlikely (for what it’s worth, you can count me among the latter). For some reason, a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds a six-point drop in support to 58% and a two-point increase in opposition to 28%. Sixty per cent believe it should be decided by a plebiscite, down six, while 25% think it should be decided by parliament, up two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 29 of 33
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  2. CC
    Yeah, I guess it’s hard to imagine 100-200 parts per million of anything. Bit of a leap for a simple guy. Mind you, don’t try breathing air with 100-200 ppm of carbon monoxide for too many hours. You could wake up dead.

  4. UK Labour leadership

    The National Executive Committee of the party has laid down the rules for the upcoming contest:
    *Corbyn gets on the ballot automatically
    *Only those who have been members since before mid-Jan 2016 have a vote, the 100,000+ who have joined this year (mainly since Brexit/Moves against Corbyn) have no vote
    *Those who wish to register as Supporters to vote will have to pony up 25 of your British pounds this time (3 quid last time)
    In other news the NEC has suspended all party meetings at branch/constituency level until the election is over, citing complaints of intimidation at recent meetings. Lastly a prominent party donor is applying to the High Court to strike Corbyn off the ballot unless he gets the support of the requisite number of MPs (see above)

  5. CC @ 11.54

    but then we keep seeing instances like this

    Statisticians have a different word for ‘instances’ as you use it here. It is outliers.

  8. compact crank @ #1367 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:39 am

    I’m sure most of the secularists here will support the Turkish coup as it removes the Islamicists who were dragging Turkey away from the secular vision of Ataturk.

    I don’t care to take sides in the Turkey conflict, but I find it equally concerning both of military takeovers and Erdogan attempting to erode democracy by taking away the rights to protest and the silencing of critics in the media.

  9. Trog Sorrenson
    Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 12:20 pm

    Your analogy is false. Modern Western medicine has developed over centuries of experience, experimentation and these days exceptionally rigorous training and testing. As compared to climate predictions that are based on theories, inaccurate modeling and heroic assumptions.

  11. Trog Sorrenson
    Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 12:28 pm

    Another failed analogy – the pathology of poisoning of organisms is completely different from the physics of the thermal effects of gas concentrations.

  12. Solar power is so cheap lots of Australians have installed power plants on their rooves. The market place driving to the future

  14. CC

    ‘I find it extremely difficult to accept that a change of 100-200 Parts Per Million of a gas concentration in the atmosphere can cause the massive temperature changes that are being claimed.’

    So your personal opinion versus thousands of scientists trained in the field?

    Gee, who do I believe?

  16. Player One

    I think at that time we were both imagining that facts might win, but stubborn determination seems to win over science every time.

  17. Lizzie

    Thats why I use the economic argument. Free fuel source is economics that the right climate deniers cannot argue against.

  18. CC
    Modern western medicine is in exactly the same place science wise as the other disciplines.
    There is nothing heroic about the assumptions underlying the effect of CO2 concentrations on air temperature. Any kid in a half decent science lab can demonstrate this.
    Unfortunately climate science has been vilified through the application of a couple of hundred millions dollars worth of lies spread by your heroes in the fossil fuel industry to protect their profitable spiv arses.

  20. I think that I will wait until all polls are declared before I put up our TPP election guesses. Perhaps by then Good Government nay have started :).

    Tom.

  21. guytaur @ #1412 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 12:42 pm

    Solar power is so cheap lots of Australians have installed power plants on their rooves. The market place driving to the future

    My Dad took advantage of the solar rebates while Labor were in government and has not paid a cent for electricity for many years now. He has become a champion for renewable energy now. Who cannot love electricity bills in which you owe nothing hey?

  22. Modern western medicine is in exactly the same place science wise as the other disciplines.

    Interestingly, modern western medicine is still plagued by self-serving anti-science charlatans like vaccination opponents. Climate change deniers pretty much fall into the same space in terms of the march of history.

  23. Another failed analogy – the pathology of poisoning of organisms is completely different from the physics of the thermal effects of gas concentrations.

    Depends on the agent. In the case of simple molecules, in particular stuff like carbon monoxide , the effects are directly related to concentration, even if one a chemical effect and the other is physical.
    So your attempt at pseudo scientific obfuscation is a loser.

  26. guytaur @ #1415 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    dailytelegraph: #Nice #BastilleDay attack: Truck driving killer Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel was not a Muslim says wife’s family. https://t.co/IPHqCrD1NR

    Sounds like the Lindt cafe shooter, only far more violent and nasty. A useless waste of space and humanity who finally comes to realise just what an excrescence they are and try to go out guns blazing under the pretence they actually stand for something, however vile.

    So many of the people who sign up for Islamic fundamentalism are not Muslim in anything but name. They are true losers. They are Martin Bryants and Julian Knights who, because they were born to Muslim parents, attach their anti-human nihilism to the stinking cesspit of hatred that is religious fundamentalism.

  27. Nicole

    Smart Dad. Its why Labor is smart to do community hubs for low income people. Give low income people zero power bills and Labor will romp the votes in

  29. guytaur @ #1425 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 1:00 pm

    CC
    That last one was for you. Sea not in danger of running out any time soon.

    A Liberal volunteer handing out HTV’s on election day after telling me he was a scientist and climate science was crap, told me that a wave powered energy invention was no good as it stole power from the ocean which could effect coasts as far a way as Africa. I’m not kidding. Hahahaha

  31. Re CC @12:12PM: One to two Ten thousanths of a gas concentration? Really?

    So you’d gladly take a bet to drink from 10 litres of water into which a sugar-cube-sized portion of strychnine had been dissolved. After all, one part per 10,000 is nothing to worry about.

    (Hint: don’t take the bet)

  32. guytaur @ #1427 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 1:02 pm

    Nicole
    Smart Dad. Its why Labor is smart to do community hubs for low income people. Give low income people zero power bills and Labor will romp the votes in

    I like it. I have been a fan of renewable energy since I was a teen. I wish there was a way for renters to get access to solar power. I’d have gotten solar if I could afford a home of my own. I am looking forward to future inventions that will better address this problem as I bet there are just heaps of renters who feel the same way.

  35. Excerpt from that Austalian article. I did not hit a paywall.

    Coalition to sideline Senate in bid to recover welfare billions
    THE AUSTRALIAN12:00AM JULY 16, 2016
    SAVE
    PRINT
    David Crowe

    Political correspondent
    https://plus.google.com/101091338212849916588
    The Turnbull government has prepared a welfare reform battle plan to achieve budget savings of more than $5 billion from as soon as September, seeking to dodge potential roadblocks in the Senate by introducing the first changes without legislation.

    The first phase of the plan will be put into effect soon after Malcolm Turnbull announces his new ministry in coming days, launching a data-matching operation to check payments against the ­income and assets of millions of ­recipients. Ministers will authorise the changes to halt fraud and ­reverse welfare payments to those who do not qualify, but they are insisting the $2bn saving over four years will not involve cuts to payments for those who are entitled.

    The second and third phases will add $3bn to the budget bottom line by reviewing thousands of people on disability support pensions, scaling back some payments to carers and closing carbon tax compensation to new welfare ­recipients. Unlike the first phase, the later measures must be legislated to take effect.

    The plans are certain to trigger a political storm when the new parliament sits, with Senate powerbrokers including Nick Xenophon and Pauline Hanson emerging as crucial players when Labor and the Greens are holding out against welfare savings.

    In an early test of the government’s ability to deal with the new Senate, cabinet ministers have set September 20 as the deadline to close off the carbon tax compensation. Social Services Minister Christian Porter told The Weekend Australian that the savings were an “absolute priority” in order to fund the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

  36. 1m
    Conflict News‏ @Conflicts
    BREAKING: Jet drops bomb near Turkish presidential palace in Ankara, according to television reports – @AFP

  37. briefly @ #1434 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 1:29 pm

    compact crank @ #1409 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 12:36 pm

    climate predictions … are based on theories, inaccurate modeling and heroic assumptions.

    There is nothing quite so sick-making as the lies of the professional liar.

    I feel the exact same as you on this Briefly. Professional liars and compulsive liars which sadly seem abundant within the Liberal Party. It seems at times a war between lies and the truth. May the truth win.

  39. Note the LNP call cuts to services savings. No one who has to reapply for their disability pension is going to think having no income is a saving.

  40. guytaur @ #1435 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 1:29 pm

    The assault on the welfare system is one of the drivers of Rejector responses in the electorate. One-time Lib-positive voters are finding the safety net doesn’t work for them. I’ve met more than the occasional one. They are made to feel ashamed…no wonder they are also angry.

  42. briefly @ #1440 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 1:39 pm

    guytaur @ #1435 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 1:29 pm
    The assault on the welfare system is one of the drivers of Rejector responses in the electorate. One-time Lib-positive voters are finding the safety net doesn’t work for them. I’ve met more than the occasional one. They are made to feel ashamed…no wonder they are also angry.

    That’s a really good point. In fact I wish Labor had put a bit more of a spotlight on what was in the zombie measures during the election campaign to counter both short memories and/or people who thought such plans had been dropped. ie. the raising of the pension age to 70, the tighter pensions assets test. Highlighting Medicare was great but this might have helped too.

  43. For someone who is on DSP for a while now and a long term Newstart user, I find its the system that is in place that is the problem, not the welfare thats in place.

    Having recently moved to Sydney I have been able to find lots more work in Information Technology.

    I think the problem is in more than one area.

    1. Job programs are not active enough for people to find jobs and get them properly trained.

    2. There is alot of scams and dodgy VEC-HELP colleges that scam people into promising jobs aspects.

    3. Employers are using high requirements to weed out potential employees and dont’t offer training or anything like this.

    4. Not enough traineeships for people to get trained in jobs, i only found 1 traineeship in IT that I am applying for.

    5. Employement Providers fake job listens.

    And many more.

    Welfare is not an issue. Its jobs and private sector. The very thing that LNP claim to be fixing ‘jobs and growth’.

  46. Paul Wiggins
    1m
    Paul Wiggins‏ @paulwiggins
    Mike Pence used campaign funds to pay his mortgage — and it cost him an election

  47. The second and third phases will add $3bn to the budget bottom line by reviewing thousands of people on disability support pensions,

    Here we go again. Again.

    I have never known a time when the government of the day was not ‘cracking down on welfare’. It’s a perennial sport for the little of mind and hollow of heart.

    Could even be described as just another form of terrorism. A particularly nasty, dishonest, and cowardly one.

  48. Hey, hold on a minute!

    In a statement issued on Friday morning, Liberal Party federal director Tony Nutt said any claim the party was “either in debt or broke is false”, but he did not deny Mr Turnbull had contributed money.

    “The party’s finances are soundly managed by the honourary federal treasurer, Andrew Burnes,” he said.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/malcolm-turnbull-evades-questions-over-whether-he-donated-1-million-to-broke-liberal-party-campaign-20160714-gq65mk.html

    Arthur Sinodonos told us that HE was an “Honourary Treasurer”, too, but he said that the word “honourary” meant he had no day-to-day dealings with donations.

  49. It seems that our Conservatives (at least most of the ‘liberal’ city dwelling variety) have a real thing against Renewable Energy.

    I think of it as ‘free energy’.

    There wasn’t many farms in the 60’s that didn’t have one or more Southern Cross windmills.

    I still have the supplied spanner – one end turned off the water pump and the other adjusted the propeller blades so it didn’t spin out of control if heavy weather was coming.

  50. guytaur @ #1441 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 1:45 pm

    briefly
    Yes this is why I feared this mob getting into power. See the homeless population soar as a result.

    Same Guytaur. With the high costs of living and rent, the zombie FTB changes if they passed, would have many single parents and children unable to keep a roof over their heads. Many struggle now already. I recall before Labor increased newstart and increased the newstart component for single parents, a huge increase in families camping out in people’s backyards and similar. My best friend was one after she hurt her back and was unable to work. The increase helped her a great deal.

    Also, making newly unemployed people go without any income for 6 months, now 1 month is insane. Many will become homeless as a result and many cannot count on their parents to bail them out. Crime would also increase as a result of this and once that line has been crossed, it won’t be the same line again. I could go on but I am sure you get my point.

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