Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the election suggests the result has delivered a blow to Malcolm Turnbull’s public prestige.

Essential Research’s fortnightly aggregate keeps on rolling, this one combining results from polling conducted over the weekend of the election itself, and in its indecisive aftermath over the weekend just past. The result is little changed, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 41%, Labor down one at 36% and the Greens steady at 10%, but two-party preferred has nudged to 51-49 in Labor’s favour. Also included are leadership ratings, and these are particularly interesting in having been conducted only over the past weekend. They suggest that Malcolm Turnbull has taken a knock, with his approval down three to 37% and disapproval up eight to 48%. Bill Shorten is up two on both approval and disapproval, to 39% and 41% respectively. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 40-29 to 39-31. In the event of a hung parliament, which we now know won’t happen, 33% would have favoured a Coalition minority government, 36% would have favoured Labor, and 21% would have preferred a fresh election. Fifty-one per cent consider a fresh election likely in the next 12 months, versus 28% for unlikely (for what it’s worth, you can count me among the latter). For some reason, a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds a six-point drop in support to 58% and a two-point increase in opposition to 28%. Sixty per cent believe it should be decided by a plebiscite, down six, while 25% think it should be decided by parliament, up two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Well if it has fallen into the DEMANDED category BK then one must always rely on Survival Rule #1
    “Yes dear, you’re right dear”
    You will just have to lift your game on your return BK. An additional hour or two will have you up to speed with the Company’s timeline within a week. Of course it will be on the pay ratio as agreed to in the last EBA.

  2. trog sorrenson @ #1341 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 10:30 am

    The commentariat often compare Menzies 1961 election victory, where he barely scraped in, with Malcolm’s situation today, the implication being that he will shrug off political adversity and rise, Menzies like, into the Pantheon of Great Australian Prime Ministers, and reign for 15 years.
    Only one small flaw in this comparison.
    After the 1961 election, the Coalition controlled half the Senate.

    You can add a couple of other points: Turnbull isn’t Menzies and Shorten isn’t Calwell. There are a lot more, but those will do for the moment.

  3. “Looks like Sydney’s going to be pretty wet on Tuesday and Wednesday.”

    Sydney looks OK on Tuesday, in fact at 23, it’ll be a mini heat wave, the warmest day in nearly 2 months, maybe with a light shower later. Wednesday looks pretty wet, however, but not cold. Enjoy your stay BK.

  4. Don’t know if it has been mentioned yet but in VIC , NSW, SA, Tas, NT and ACT ALP won @ 56 seats- 44.

    In Redneckia they lost 33 – 12.

  5. compact crank @ #1356 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:16 am

    Good thing those renewables are so cheap and reliable.
    First we had Tasmania spending millions on Diesel Generators.
    Now we have the SA Government pleading to get conventional fired power stations back on line.
    http://www.afr.com/business/energy/south-australia-intervenes-in-electricity-market-as-prices-hit-14000mwh-20160714-gq5sac
    $14,000 a MWh – good thing the wind is free!
    And in Germany they are building new coal fired generators.

    I am curious as to what your scenario is when all the coal has been burnt?

  6. Well it appears the coup failed. Erdogan ramping up the authoritarian use of power live on 24 now.

    More instability ahead for Turkey as a result.
    Erdogan blames an exile in the US for the coup of which thre is no evidence of any connection.

    Erdogan claims of democracy are of course suspect as he has been doing a Putin and consolidating power.

    Also interesting to not Putin has not so far condemned the coup. US State Secretary has been making statements from Moscow as he hammers out a truce agreement over Syria

  7. Ah here is the group Turkey is blaming.
    abcnews: .@RT_Erdogan: We have called them [Gulenists], an armed terrorist organisation…They are using this nation’s arms to shoot at this nation.

  8. Compact Crank – yeah right. We should just forget all this crap about renewables, dig up and burn the coal as fast as we can and assume that climate science is crap. Eventually the coal will run out, but that’s a century or so down the track, someone else’s problem. Anyway the ‘market’ can take care of that.

  9. CC

    guardiannews: Air pollution causes wrinkles and premature ageing, new research shows https://t.co/NM4pixVPZs

    Look how much money families will save not having coal burning pollution on the woman spending on cosmetics and to an increasing degree men.

  10. I’m sure most of the secularists here will support the Turkish coup as it removes the Islamicists who were dragging Turkey away from the secular vision of Ataturk.

  11. Poroti

    The last thing Putin would want is examples to his military of how to do away with him. The USSR history is clear on how dictators are removed. Putin does not want anyone following that old model he wants them all believing in democracy and that the old days are over

  12. Despicable acts done by despicable people are despicable fullstop. No-one is refuting this, only that it’s discriminatory that their religion is rarely ever highlighted except when it is Islam. Same goes with use of the word terrorist. Was Martin Bryant called a terrorist? Was the Port Arthur Massacre called an act of terrorism? No. What happened in Nice was a massacre, a tragic and horrendous massacre. Unless evidence can be found that it was in fact an act of terrorism, to call it such is an act of bigotry.

  13. bemused
    Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:24 am
    When that happens, in about a thousands years time based on known coal deposits, then nuclear will probably be relatively cheap and even better than it currently is – we may have fusion or Thorium Reactors may have lived up to the hype.

  14. CC
    100km of kelp forests gone, one fifth of the Reef coral rubble, 7000 hectares of mangroves dead.
    How do you propose to internalize the full costs of coal, BTW?

  15. compact crank @ #1371 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:42 am

    bemused
    Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:24 am
    When that happens, in about a thousands years time based on known coal deposits, then nuclear will probably be relatively cheap and even better than it currently is – we may have fusion or Thorium Reactors may have lived up to the hype.

    Probably…may have… wishful thinking perhaps?
    Fact is we have the capability now to harness the forces of nature such as sunlight, wind and waves to produce an abundance of energy and costs a falling rapidly.

  16. Compact Crank

    Which is why the military playing up should be no surprise. They have a long felt themselves to be guardians of ‘Ataturk’s’ secular state.

  17. Boerwar
    Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:44 am
    The premise of you question is that vast majority of climate change if not the totality is caused by CO2e emissions. I don’t accept that the climate is that sensitive and that while CO2e emissions do have a minimal impact – the vast majority is caused by natural variation or something else such as land clearing.

  18. Looks like my comment was lost because I used a rude word.
    Try again.
    1) SA power prices are very high because of a dependence on gas. This has been the case for a long time.
    2) Gas prices are thru the roof because of recent export contracts.
    3) SA’s main source of base load power is the Pelican Point generator which is gas fired, It had been switched off because it was losing money due to the high costs of gas.
    4) The inter state connector supplying base load power was limited in capacity due to delays in network upgrades.
    Renewables have actually helped keep energy costs in check, because they have reduced the capacity of fossil fueled spiv energy cartels, Murdoch mates, to charge like wounded bulls during peak demand.
    Once we get past the current transition phase energy costs will be much lower, and with distributed battery storage, we will gradually rid ourselves of dependence on the spivs.
    Wind and sun are free.

  19. Boerwar
    Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:43 am
    Not a big fan of Erdogan and his islamicists and would have preferred for the Turkish people to vote them out – but it appears the Turkish military have had a gutfull.

  20. Crank

    Keep denying the science all you like. It just means you are living up to the Crank part of your name.

    You here on a blog is harmless. Those in power a different story.

    As for costs of coal v renewables the latter win every time.

    Simple reason. Once you install the power plant (Capital Costs) the fuel source is free.
    Makes renewables unbeatable on costs

  21. compact crank @ #1376 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:49 am

    Boerwar
    Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:44 am
    The premise of you question is that vast majority of climate change if not the totality is caused by CO2e emissions. I don’t accept that the climate is that sensitive and that while CO2e emissions do have a minimal impact – the vast majority is caused by natural variation or something else such as land clearing.

    So you assert you know better than the overwhelming majority of scientists in disciplines relevant to climate science?
    Such amazing arrogance.

  22. guytaur

    Putin has no worry about the military. They would love him as he has set about with a will to renew the army, air force and navy. Pouring in money for new toys after decades of decay. He would however worry about the spread of radical Islamism around various parts of Russia and neighbouring states.

  23. bemused
    Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:47 am
    I keep hearing that costs are falling dramatically – but then we keep seeing instances like this – same thing happened in the UK. Until “green” energy can efficiently and effectively replace conventional baseload and peaking generators without requiring subsidization or conventional backup it is all a load of expensive virtue signaling bollocks.

  24. nuclear will probably be relatively cheap and even better than it currently is

    Nuclear will always be the province of the spivs, centralised economics, and an expensive network.
    No thanks , I’ll generate my own power from super cheap solar and battery systems, with a little network wind on the side, rather than remain in financial slavery to the cartel.

  25. guytaur @ #1379 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:53 am

    Crank
    Keep denying the science all you like. It just means you are living up to the Crank part of your name.
    You here on a blog is harmless. Those in power a different story.
    As for costs of coal v renewables the latter win every time.
    Simple reason. Once you install the power plant (Capital Costs) the fuel source is free.
    Makes renewables unbeatable on costs

    I generally agree with you, but you ignore the cost of servicing the capital.
    With interests rates low, now is the ideal time to invest and lock in the low interest charges.

  26. Poroti

    So did most of the Russian dictators from Stalin on. Gorbachev was the only one to survive such a coup that we know of and he was responsible for the start of the most massive decline in military spending in Russian history that I know of.

  27. Wind and sun are free

    Yay!

    Why do they need sooooooo much subsidization?

    Generators and grids aren’t. Never have been and never will be.

  28. Crank

    Fossil fuels all their life are massively subsisdised. The Diesel fuel rebate is just one such example.

    You don’t need to pay for exploring to find ever scarcer fuel of pay the Arabs the expense of those locations for drilling for oil.

  29. Poriti

    They have a long felt themselves to be guardians of ‘Ataturk’s’ secular state.

    Yep.

    CC</b.

    He seems to be totally focused on making sure it's impossible to vote him out.

  30. Whether it’s wind, solar or wave – the storage capacity that is required to be able to provide certainty of supply is extremely expensive and inefficient. Even Hydro schemes struggle with this if there isn’t enough rain/snow.

  31. Must say I was kinda surprised to see the Australian yesterday having moneybags story on front page, as confirmed by Laurie Oakes

    And that is one reason the Prime Minister would have recoiled when he saw yesterday’s front-page headline in The Australian: “PM’s $1m bailout for Liberals”.

    The paper reported that, when the Liberal Party ran out of money in mid-campaign, Turnbull wrote a cheque for a cool million smackeroos to keep TV ads on air through to election day.

  32. Crank

    Thats just a planning issue. Not an obstacle to using renewable energy. There are whole countries running on solely renewable power now so the proof is in.

  33. zoomster
    Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 11:55 am
    I don’t question the Arrhenius effect of CO2e absorbing energy and then releasing it later. However, in such a dynamic and chaotic system such as our Atmosphere and oceans, with such massive volumes of water I find it extremely difficult to accept that a change of 100-200 Parts Per Million of a gas concentration in the atmosphere can cause the massive temperature changes that are being claimed. One to two Ten thousanths of a gas concentration? Really?

  34. I fly regularly up and down the West Australian coast line. When you look out East over the WA Wheat Belt it is often clearly observable a line of clouds form along the Eastern edge of the wheat belt clearing. That is man made climate change in action – and in my opinion much more powerful than a trace gas at parts per million.

  35. CC

    100-200 Parts Per Million of a gas concentration in the atmosphere can cause the massive temperature changes that are being claimed. One to two Ten thousanths of a gas concentration? Really?

    Who needs experts with Crank on the job.
    Do you plan on performing your own home surgery? Maybe if one of your kids gets sick, or if you don’t have kids, a friend or relly, you could easily whip out their appendix? What about a bit of home neuro surgery? Can’t be that hard, you’ve seen it on TV!

  36. Nicole

    Was Martin Bryant called a terrorist? Was the Port Arthur Massacre called an act of terrorism? No. What happened in Nice was a massacre, a tragic and horrendous massacre.

    Well said, Nicole.

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