Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The first poll conducted since the election suggests the result has delivered a blow to Malcolm Turnbull’s public prestige.

Essential Research’s fortnightly aggregate keeps on rolling, this one combining results from polling conducted over the weekend of the election itself, and in its indecisive aftermath over the weekend just past. The result is little changed, with the Coalition steady on the primary vote at 41%, Labor down one at 36% and the Greens steady at 10%, but two-party preferred has nudged to 51-49 in Labor’s favour. Also included are leadership ratings, and these are particularly interesting in having been conducted only over the past weekend. They suggest that Malcolm Turnbull has taken a knock, with his approval down three to 37% and disapproval up eight to 48%. Bill Shorten is up two on both approval and disapproval, to 39% and 41% respectively. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 40-29 to 39-31. In the event of a hung parliament, which we now know won’t happen, 33% would have favoured a Coalition minority government, 36% would have favoured Labor, and 21% would have preferred a fresh election. Fifty-one per cent consider a fresh election likely in the next 12 months, versus 28% for unlikely (for what it’s worth, you can count me among the latter). For some reason, a semi-regular question on same-sex marriage finds a six-point drop in support to 58% and a two-point increase in opposition to 28%. Sixty per cent believe it should be decided by a plebiscite, down six, while 25% think it should be decided by parliament, up two.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 27 of 33
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  1. Section 2 . . .

    On foreign policy Trump makes George W Bush look like a colossus! It’s frightening.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/donald-trump-nice-presidential-election-terrorism
    Paul Bongiorno with a sober look at where Turnbull might go with this parliament.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2016/07/16/shorten-targets-turnbulls-instability/14685912003487
    Why Islamic State hates France.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/07/15/why-islamic-state-hates-france/
    A cousin of the man who killed all the people in Nice was not religious but rather was a completely nasty bit of work. We shall see I suppose.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/world/vehicle-crashes-into-crowd-in-nice-france-during-bastille-day-celebrations/news-story/a4bab1f2a26ee37b0c246d934e0815ed
    Was Mehajer too smart by half?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajers-wife-aysha-holds-keys-to-business-empire-despite-avo-against-him-20160714-gq5hfq.html
    What is driving women to do this? I have no idea.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/2016/07/14/ab-crack-trend/
    Michael West reveals how we are being gouged on LNG prices.
    http://www.michaelwest.com.au/its-a-gas-australian-gas-prices-are-a-bargain-in-japan/
    Fly with JetStar? I don’t think so!
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/aviation/hundreds-stranded-as-jetstar-grounds-melbournesingapore-flight-20160715-gq7059.html
    Joe Biden has slammed the “gathering forces of racism” in the US and Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-biden-in-australia-vicepresident-attacks-gathering-forces-of-racism-in-us-and-australia-20160715-gq6cgb.html
    This is a situation no person should be put into.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/homes-taken-now-trapped-westconnex-residents-must-pay-to-stay-20160714-gq68gs.html

  2. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Complaints to the TIO about flaky internet are soaring.
    http://www.smh.com.au/technology/gadgets-on-the-go/aussie-complaints-soar-over-flaky-broadband-20160715-gq6e5n.html
    Latika Bourke in the Liberals’ money woes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbulls-reported-1-million-donation-one-for-the-record-books-20160715-gq6t2x.html
    And Mark Kenny has coined a new term, “buy-election”. In the article he calls for a transparent real-time register of political donations.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/when-general-elections-become-buyelections-pms-million-dollar-baby-20160715-gq6la9.html
    Laurie Oakes says that Turnbull’s $1m donation is a “bad look”. He’s got form, says Oakes. Google.
    /news/opinion/laurie-oakes/laurie-oakes-on-malcolm-turnbulls-1m-liberal-party-donation/news-story/09d130542f5f3496740156fa2c00eafb

    Alan Moir has Turnbull celebrating an amicable compromise with Barnaby. It’s a beauty!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20150921-gjrcxr.html
    David Pope has tracked down Sussan Ley.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Ron Tandberg eavesdrops on Turnbull and Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Matt Golding and Turnbull’s political ambition.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/matt-golding-20151124-gl6ndp.html
    Mark Knight with a reminder of France’s terror woes.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4ccd690f1f8e75102d15e315fd1fcfd3?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5

  3. REQUEST FOR LEAVE OF ABSENCE
    I am taking Mrs BK on a holiday next week for her 70th birthday. She would prefer this to having a big shindig at home so who am I to object?
    Accordingly I will be unable to curate the Dawn Patrol from Monday through Friday next week.

  5. It’s worth pointing out that IS have urged followers to use trucks to kill innocent people en masse. The ‘lone wolf’ theory is pathetic. Do you really need a personal letter of authenticity from IS before an attack can be linked to them?

  6. BK

    I’ll do my best to fill in for you on the Dawn Patrol, but I’m not physically quite up to speed yet, so contributions from other early risers will be welcome.

    Enjoy your break. 🙂

  9. It’s worth pointing out that IS have urged followers to use trucks to kill innocent people en masse. The ‘lone wolf’ theory is pathetic. Do you really need a personal letter of authenticity from IS before an attack can be linked to them?

    It has to be shown that he was working for IS, Desert Fox. Until that is demonstrated he’s just another nutter who decided he couldn’t take it anymore and decided to take as many with him as he could, ending in suicide by cop.

    This literally happens every day in America, and it doesn’t even make the news here, or there (from what I can see).

    So the guy had a Muslim name, big deal. The nutters who take out their school mates, or little kids in a kindergarten, or who go out any buy a passel of guns and shoot up the offices of their ex-employers had Christian-sounding names. We don’t call them “Christian” terrorists. They’re just murderers, common or garden.

    And when it’s all over, droogs like you call for more guns, not less.

    Mohommad Whatsisname was a lone guy with a truck who ploughed through a crowd and then got shot by the cops. Until we know for sure he was an Islamic terrorist, acting under orders or in contact with IS, that’s as far as it goes.

    Blaming the entire adherents of a religion, or a race for the acts of a single individual, waging war (as you called for yesterday) is not only illogical, but counterproductive. Millions have already died due to this kind of knee-jerk reaction. How many more millions do you want to see dead just so you can feel morally superior in that typically wowserish way that losers like yourself seem to take on so readily?

    If you can explain how millions of Muslims in France, and outside of it in the greater Middle East, are all responsible for what one man did with a truck, and why they should be bombed and strafed, killed and butchered in revenge for the acts of this one man, people around here might start taking you seriously.

    Until then you’re just an armchair soldier, too gutless and morally bankrupt to get up and do something about this problem you say you’ve discovered. Talk is cheap.

  10. Anything that generates ‘jobs’ must be a benefit to the world. Even oil spills.
    These people are certifiable vandals.

    “The Draft Environmental Impact Statement identifies many economic impacts arising from an accident associated with Project operations, but fails to recognize economic activity that would be generated by spill response,” Todd Schatzki, vice president of Analysis Group — a consulting group that released an economic report on the terminal commissioned by Tesoro Savage — wrote in pre-filed testimony. “When a spill occurs, new economic activity occurs to clean-up contaminated areas, remediate affected properties, and supply equipment for cleanup activities. Anecdotal evidence from recent spills suggests that such activity can be potentially large.”

    http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2016/07/15/3798835/oil-spills-good-for-economy-nature-vancouver/

  11. BB,

    Damned good post!
    You’ve said it all with a cogent and coherent narrative.
    More power to your inspirational writing.
    Cheers.

  12. Ross Gittins on ‘privatisation’.
    For the Coalition, outsourcing some government service shifts economic activity to private enterprise, the part of the economy whose interests the Coalition champions, and who are their friends and donors.

    Many people assume the private sector will always do things more efficiently – or less inefficiently – than those tea-drinking public servants.

    Maybe. The private sector has a big advantage over the public sector: it has just one objective, to make a buck.

    But what those who think this way often forget is that private sector tenderers have to undercut the public service’s price and make room for their profit, which they hope to make as big as possible.

    Often they do this by cutting corners on the quality of the service they deliver. Leave a loophole in your contract and they’ll jump right through.

    The public sector’s big disadvantage is also its big advantage: it always has a range of objectives, imposed on it by politicians who know that voters will hold them responsible should the service prove really bad.

    And here’s a point you won’t find in any textbook, but all the stuff-ups of recent years should have woken us up to: when you give businesses access to the government’s coffers, a surprisingly high proportion of them lose all sense and start acting like robbers in Aladdin’s cave.

    Witness: all the unsafe behaviour by outfits trying to make a killing in the pink-batt boom; all the operators using inducements to sign up students for unsuitable courses, the costs of which were borrowed from the government; all the operators using the lure of permanent residence to rip off foreign students with phoney courses.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/think-twice-before-throwing-open-the-government-coffers-20160715-gq6dkw.html

  13. BK / Lizzie
    I’m happy to assist with the day’s news.
    My favourite newsreaders… “John Logan with ABC news…” ; “John Hall with ABC news…” ; “Here is the news and this is John Snagge reading it…” (BBC) ; “Peta Collins with ABC news…”

  14. Steven

    I just do the pedestrian bits from Fairfax and some independents, so any added colour is welcome. (The Guardian doesn’t get up early enough) 🙂

  15. What a gutless coward QLD Police Minister, Bill Byrne is, telling Pauline Hanson to ‘tone down’ her statements re Islam. So if anything happens to her then it’s her fault. Freedom of speech anyone?

  16. Perhaps Sprocket could manage the “news” from erstwhile papers like the Daily Terror and the Government Gazette given his excellent summations during the election campaign.

  19. Gittins:

    Labor’s Mediscare will have a benefit if it causes our politicians to think twice before they resort to “outsourcing” or “contracting out” the provision of government services, a practice that’s led to a string of disasters.

    Yes, t appears that “Mediscare” actually worked.

    Faced with the Politician’s Dilemma of having to try to explain why a particular set of circumstances did not apply to the whole – in this case why hiving off the Medicare payments system to a private company wasn’t “privatizing” it – Turnbull caved in and declared that no privatization was intended or would take place.

    That’s not to say we all believed him. We probably didn’t. But it forced him into a corner of denial, because to discuss the true situation would only make him look shifty due to the “Methinks he does protest too much” principle.

    A friend of mine recently had a similar situation in a legal matter where several people all signed a document, all on the same day. The document contained an outrageous and demonstrably untrue statement made by one of the signatories which was adverse to my friend’s interests.

    The signatures were dated, but not time-stamped. They were probably affixed at different times during that same day, but MAY have all been affixed in the same office at the same time. Only the signatories knew that.

    The damaging words in the document were only one person’s statement, technically, but due to their generality (it was expressed as a statement of fact, not an opinion) my friend alleged that they were the words of ALL of the people who signed, including one person who, my friend wanted to allege, had a conflict of interest in certain matters.

    My friend alleged in effect that everyone who had signed the document must have agreed with the damaging statement.

    This put the other side in a bind. So, rather than “protest too much” and go into complicated explanations of who signed what, where and when, by way of precise timing, they retracted the document altogether, and it was removed from evidence completely, causing their entire case to fall apart.

    THAT’S a good wedge by my friend, and THAT’s also what Shorten did to Turnbull.

    Shorten made a plenary allegation that Turnbull intended to privatise Medicare, forcing Turnbull to either explain away individual apparent privatization elements one by one – and to show why they were not equal to “privatization” – or take the matter off the table with a blanket denial of any intent whatsoever.

    Despite the best attempts of the Press Gallery to dismiss Shorten’s wedge with a contemptuous description of his tactic as “ridiculous”, it worked.

    That is not only great politics on Shorten’s behalf, but it was an unconditionally good thing for the nation. I call it “Win/Win”.

  21. The Liberals nearly lost the election because their policies – the vast majority of them, not just one or two, such as the super campaign – don’t appeal to the average voter.

    They hid these policies prior to the last election, selling an economic theory so unprecedented that it has no name (“We will bring the Budget back to surplus. We will do this without raising taxes or cutting services.”) which would have fallen apart at the first touch of media criticism. Fortunately for them, the media was far more interested in important issues like Prime Ministerial shoes getting stuck in boggy ground than they were in the economic credentials of the alternative government. (I’m probably not looking at this in context).

    As any observer, keen or otherwise, could have predicted, this genius plan fell at the first hurdle. Although the Senate crossbench was jam packed with right wingers, they had not undergone the full nutjob, and showed themselves far more in tune with the average Aussie than those who were elected with a majority of the average Aussie vote.

    The Liberals had a choice: junk their unpopular policies or junk their unpopular leader. So they chose a leader who was popular precisely because everyone thought (well, the man hinted madly, so it must be so) that he opposed the Liberals unpopular policies.

    It turned out he didn’t. Whether this was a cunning plan to lull the RWNJs, an attempt at forging ‘peace in our time’, the actions of someone so cowardly that Peter Costello looks like someone with a spine, or whether Turnbull just couldn’t be bothered depends on what brand of Koolaid you’ve drunk…or not.

    The dribs of post election review we’re getting suggests that most Liberals don’t share Pyne’s upbeat optimism about the result. They don’t suggest, however, that the Liberals have made any of the deep realisations they need to make, or that they are capable of making them.

    It’s the pollsters’ fault, for not telling them which policies were unpopular with the electorate (the electorate which, as part of their day job, MPs are meant to be out there talking to). Notice the ‘which’ – the belief is still there that most of them are OK, it’s just one or two bad apples (unidentifiable, apparently, to the average MP) that are ruining the lot.

    It’s the fault of the central campaign, which didn’t give them the right lines to spout. Really? I thought the Liberal party was one of rugged individuals, who relied on noone but themselves and their superior wits and abhorred nanny state like approaches where one simply does what one’s told. (Something I’m frequently told is what’s wrong with unions).

    And they weren’t negative enough about Shorten. Apparently splurging millions on a Royal Commission and three years of media dissing the man weren’t effective enough, whereas one or two ads with Twinkletoes Turnbull telling us Shorten was (gasp) a former unionist would have done the job.

    So nothing to see here, folks. Basically, the Liberals have got all their policy settings right (and hopefully those pesky voters will stop asking the questions Labor’s been busy answering and start asking the ones they’re supposed to). The problem obviously lies elsewhere.

    Given that the problem isn’t the policies, and isn’t the MPs themselves, then Somebody Else must be to blame.

    I wonder who?

  24. BK and Lizzie,

    REQUEST FOR LEAVE OF ABSENCE
    I am taking Mrs BK on a holiday next week for her 70th birthday. She would prefer this to having a big shindig at home so who am I to object?
    Accordingly I will be unable to curate the Dawn Patrol from Monday through Friday next week.
    BK

    I’ll do my best to fill in for you on the Dawn Patrol, but I’m not physically quite up to speed yet, so contributions from other early risers will be welcome.
    (Lizzie)

    I am happy to do the cartoons. They may be a bit late sometimes, as I might need to do them once I get to work, but they will definitely happen.

    Enjoy your break BK.

  27. Is the RBA ‘jawboning’ and trying to make the AUD less attractive to overseas investors ?

    The Reserve Bank of Australia has drafted an emergency playbook to follow the world’s major central banks in embracing extreme monetary policy as global interest rates stumble to historic lows and the Australian dollar stays stubbornly high.

    The findings of the RBA’s internal study into unconventional monetary policy revealed that the central bank would consider quantitative easing, if required.

    The policy, which has been deployed in the United States, Europe and Japan involves creating money to purchase long term bonds in order lower borrowing costs and lift asset prices. But the Australian version of QE would get the most “bang for its buck” through a weaker currency as foreign holders of Australian bonds were forced out of the market.

    …Market experts dismissed suggestions that the central bank study, revealed by Bloomberg, was trying to deliver a signal to global investors by divulging their QE play-book.

    …Foreign investors currently own about 60 per cent of the $450 billion government bonds on issue, as they have sought solace from low and negative interest rates in major bond markets. Quantitative easing could force these investors out of Australian assets weakening the currency…

    …”With 70 per cent of the JP Morgan developed world government bond index below 1 per cent, the yield in Australia stands out like a beacon for investors contemplating low or negative yields,” he said.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/economy/reserve-bank-prepares-radical-qe-playbook-to-subdue-a-rise-20160715-gq6sip#ixzz4EWaoNqOM

  30. Barney in Saigon
    “Where did you find this out? ”
    .
    Chatting with HoJo about those “200 fully costed ” and ready to go policies they had.

  31. ‘Tax loopholes R’Us’ back in business –

    Backbenchers rebelling against the Turnbull government’s superannuation changes will push for exemptions that would allow superannuants to inject large, one-off windfalls into their retirement savings accounts even if they have already reached the proposed $500,000 lifetime limit.

    The idea is to keep the proposed $500,000 limit on post-tax contributions but insert into law a series of exemptions. These could include an inheritance, gift or the sale of long-held property or shares.

    …While a showdown on the issue has been foreshadowed for the first Coalition party room meeting on Monday, senior ministers will seek to diffuse it by offering an internal forum in which MPs with concerns can discuss them with Treasurer Scott Morrison and officials.

    They will be invited to put forward proposals for change, but it will be made clear that the starting point for any changes must recognise the cost to the budget, and the impact the various changes are designed to have, and the practical difficulties of having another start date other than 2017.

    …Some of the leading proponents of change have admitted they don’t even have any clear proposals for what should be done on superannuation instead of the current package.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/back-benchers-float-super-carveouts-20160715-gq6vzw#ixzz4EWdt6Ulg

  35. btw, I’ve been reflecting on the impact of the ‘let’s be nice to asylum seekers’ vote.

    In Indi, we had a range of choices on this. Our candidate had said he’d cross the floor on the issue. McGowan said if you wanted to get rid of Nauru/Manus, you should vote Green. The Coalition pair were obviously all hunky dory with anything Nauru/Manus related.

    The final result: our candidate, -2% swing; McGowan, positive swing; Greens 0.5% swing to them.

    Conclusion – at least in this electorate, being nice to refugees MAY be worth 0.5%. More probably, it’s a minus.

    I think that, as an issue, it’s more one which identifies you as part of the in-group rather than one that people really, really care about (apologies, gross generalisation, but I’m aiming for analysis here and that’s broadbrush; there are people who do genuinely care passionately about the issue and I respect that).

    In other words, in certain groups this is a belief you have to sign up to. You do so without much deep analysis. To question it is a sign that your ethics are shaky. It gives you a reason to deplore the major parties and a justification for saying They Are Just The Same (which identifies you as an independent thinker, which is a Good Thing). It also lets you know that you are morally superior to the vast majority of Australians, because to hold any other view means that you must be racist (and they’re all bogans anyway).

    In a lot of cases, people in this group come across as genuinely very passionate about the issue. They will stand up in public and advocate for change. They write letters to the editor. A few (whom I’m willing to listen to) visit refugee shelters and talk to actual refugees, but the vast majority of them put their energy and passion into emoting about the issue without taking things any further.

    The figures suggest, however, that it doesn’t really affect their vote. The group they belong to was going to vote the way they vote anyway – it’s just one more excuse. If it wasn’t refugees, the hot button issue they’d be talking about would be old growth forests or CSG mining, and they’d have the same level of real commitment to it.

    Conclusion: being nice to refugees is not going to win you votes. That is, of course, not a reason to abandon the idea that refugees should be treated nicely. It’s just a reason why it shouldn’t be treated as a political imperative.

  36. desert fox @ #1304 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 7:33 am

    This is for anyone who downplays Islamic terrorism. Any excuse will do Bushfire?
    https://mobile.twitter.com/mezzaraion/status/753717433496641536/video/1

    You truly are an imbecile.
    Anyone would deplore what has happened and your violence porn does nothing to establish who was responsible and their motivation.
    It seems to be emerging that the perpetrator acted alone and was a nutter with negligible affiliation with Islam.

  37. desert fox @ #1305 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 7:37 am

    It’s worth pointing out that IS have urged followers to use trucks to kill innocent people en masse. The ‘lone wolf’ theory is pathetic. Do you really need a personal letter of authenticity from IS before an attack can be linked to them?

    Helpful folk like you and the media ensure such messages are dispersed far and wide so any unbalanced person can receive them and form their own plans. Good work!

  39. The Turkish coup is a perfect opportunity for Boris Johnson to display his diplomatic skills as Foreign Minister. Perhaps he can write a limerick about events.

  40. “”they imply a million-dollar gift from the PM should be seen as routine.””
    I am aware of buying ones job, but this ridiculous for a politician.

  41. The commentariat often compare Menzies 1961 election victory, where he barely scraped in, with Malcolm’s situation today, the implication being that he will shrug off political adversity and rise, Menzies like, into the Pantheon of Great Australian Prime Ministers, and reign for 15 years.
    Only one small flaw in this comparison.
    After the 1961 election, the Coalition controlled half the Senate.

  42. steven @ #1313 Saturday, July 16, 2016 at 9:04 am

    BK / Lizzie
    I’m happy to assist with the day’s news.
    My favourite newsreaders… “John Logan with ABC news…” ; “John Hall with ABC news…” ; “Here is the news and this is John Snagge reading it…” (BBC) ; “Peta Collins with ABC news…”

    Seems you are more partial to the reader than the news.
    I must say I do like Kate Draper on ABC 774.

  44. I’ll do my best to help in the mornings, such as one can from a foreign laptop in an alien locale. : )

    BK, enjoy Sydders. Just don’t go to Kings Cross looking for any excitement. ; )

  45. Sohar

    Turkey and politics is a bit fraught for the BoJo clan . Just ask his great granddad Ali Kemal. 🙂

    Norman Stone on the dramatic life and death of Ali Kemal, one-time interior minister of Turkey and our mayoral candidate’s forebear

    They had left the Sultan on his throne, and there was a puppet government which controlled a few back-streets. Poor Ali Kemal made the awful mistake of becoming its minister of the interior for some three months. As happens with collaborationist regimes…….Somehow, he allowed a mob to take Ali Kemal off the train at Izmit, the old Nicomedia, and they lynched him.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2008/04/my-dream-for-turkey-by-boriss-greatgrandfather/

  46. Zoomster:

    Interesting re AS in your electorate. I’ve never thought the issue represents much of a vote changer, and definitely not amongst swinging voters.

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