Results of a poll conducted concurrently with the election on the weekend, and a place for general discussion of the election aftermath.
Kind of old news now, but Essential Research didn’t let Saturday’s election stop them conduct their usual weekly poll, results of which were published on Tuesday and can be found here. I’m continuing to follow the progress of the count here, so you are invited to discuss count-related matters there while continuing discussion of a more general nature here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Lizzie
Your story sounds terrible.
once many years ago I had a virus. Came on suddenly and I could not walk. Only about 24 hours, but very scary.
But Lizzie, like many of us the years are marching on. Perhaps one of those call alarms may be a good idea.
The only way would know that would be if we were to go and ask the Tory voters in those tight Queensland seats just why they voted the way they did. We might also ask all the Labor voters the same questions….
As a regional Queenslander in George’s seat (sigh!) I suggest the way the cow cockies and cane farmers vote is based on the fact that they only vote National Party, that’s it. It is inconceivable that they would do otherwise, even if it was to their detriment. It’s only questioned by the young folk who have been contaminated by going to the wrong boarding school, but they are soon fixed. The change the electorates need are in the cities, and in Mackay the population has dropped significantly, so George hung on in Dawson.
I am happy that, at the very least, my local booth voted ALP
Lizzie,
I’m so pleased you’re O.K., but a horrible ordeal for you and I don’t mean the hospital food.
‘@ Adrian – it is a shame, but unless you can honestly say you would rather be fired than sell out your principles then you shouldn’t criticise.’
Well, if you applied this principle to all commentary you’d get stuff all, which might not be a bad thing.
Besides, many professions like mine have a strict code of ethics, which if you are not prepared to abide by, you may well get fired.
I know that the journalist code of ethics isn’t worth the paper its printed on, but that doesn’t give them a free pass to abandon it completely.
All the very best Lizzie.
simon katich @ #2987 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:28 pm
Swimming in water at 4 C or below can kill you in less than 100 metres, though there have been cases where obese people have survived for some hours in ice cold water. Most people who were in the water when the Titanic sank would have been dead in 15 minutes or so.
simon katich @ #2995 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:42 pm
It’s just a white screen.
Is that the view from your window?
The next election to follow is the NT poll in August 2016.
In time, I’m sure William will have a thread up about it.
Surely Labor can win that one?
Trog and others
The final verdict was a combination of the medications I take, plus a possible mild case of salmonella poisoning. I recovered without treatment, so I must be pretty healthy, but no more chicken for me, just in case.
Briefly
Your posts and your stated views put you fairly clearl;y on the labor right, despite your own rather odd self assessment. i recall you completing a vote compass type thing on here. we all posted our scores. Some wonderful person but i cannot recall who collated all our scores.
Now from my memory only three regular posters came out on the Liberal leaning side of the score bord – you, GG and DWH but you were slightly to the right of DWH. I am not sure if Meher completed it. Now I have absolutely no problem with whatever your views are and where in the spectrum you sit. What I have a problem with is being in denial about it, assuming you are somehow left, whereas you share more views with the right.
For example I see your economic views and those of Meher being very similar. Meher admits to being on the right of the spectrum albeit with some green aberant tendencies (smile).
Now for me I am basically of the left but I have some aberrant views that make me to the right of Attila the Hun. I hope I have the self awareness to acknowledge these when relevant.
[many professions like mine have a strict code of ethics, which if you are not prepared to abide by, you may well get fired]
Most of the ‘professions’ have a code of ethics that is self regulating. Only a very few codes are monitored and enforced by a fully independent Board backed by legislation.
SK
Yep. ‘Public nuisance’.
A hundred and 50 fine …
Then OH got caught on Bywater St doing 70 in the camper van … another 300 gone.
[It’s just a white screen.
Is that the view from your window?]
It’s a mozzie. Plenty here at the moment.
As an aside, when I wrote “mozzie” the autocorrect changed it to Lizzie. Twice!!
We’re you bitten, Lizzie? And get well asap.
Suddenly I have this recollection of last night’s Q&A where Brandis said that Turnbull was the first PM to be re-elected since Howard.
And when he said that, I remembered the expression on the faces of Tanya Plibersek and Van Badham, “hold on…”.
He wasn’t re-elected, and Tony corrected him on this if I recall correctly. Because then Gillard would also fit his definition of being “re-elected”.
Barney, it was a mosquito. My draft response had an image of someone with a tropical skin parasite but I thought better of it.
‘Most of the ‘professions’ have a code of ethics that is self regulating. Only a very few codes are monitored and enforced by a fully independent Board backed by legislation.’
I realise this, but this one is.
BTW, you object to the word profession, paleface?
Only a very few codes are monitored and enforced by a fully independent Board backed by legislation.
As an engineer in Qld I have to be RPEQ, which is monitored and enforced by an independent Board and supported by legislation.
CTar1
Good stories normally cost more than £150. That’s a life long investment full of returns.
One boozy night in East Circular quay the missus decided to swim Sydney Harbour. Thankfully a friendly security guard talked her out of it.
[BTW, you object to the word profession, paleface?]
I do as it is so often misused.
As someone who is also governed by a proper profession, the misuse irks me.
Nobody has ever called me paleface before.
Article by questioner on Q&A last night re violence against women
http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/survivor-advocate-tarang-chawlas-challenge-to-steve-price/news-story/a188725853ee6570ff00ec7ad284c118
In NSW we have the spivification of the power network, with increasing electricity prices.
In the ACT we have a renewable energy policy likely to pay off in spades, with massive savings to consumers.
So which government, that of NSW or of the ACT, are the better managers?
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/act-could-make-windfall-gains-from-bold-100-renewables-target-56838
Dtt@2.58
For the very little its worth, on the idiot compass i am placed on the upper left…out in green pastures
Nappin, is QLD the only state in Australia with Prof Engineer legislation?
Wow, just saw Toorak Troll’s post a few pages back. Amazing. Counting hasn’t even finished in this election and he’s already concern trolling the next one.
@2.58
You are just wrong on my economic positions…i was the first to argue here for reform of negative gearing and CGT concessions, who spoke against the repression of indentured workers, who argues the economic case for more education and social capital investment and who posts on the economic cists of climate change.
You are blinded by your prejudice
“In NSW we have the spivification of the power network, with increasing electricity prices.”
Such is the extent of the spivification perpetuated by Chief spiv Mike Baird that have the dearest electricity prices in the entire world?
Or did I misread?
SK. Yes, it is. It means we have two Registrations. One for Queensland (RPEQ) and one through Engineers Australia (NPER and CPEng). The EA registration is not backed by legislation (well, directly).
[Swimming in water at 4 C or below can kill you in less than 100 metres]
Yes, I learnt that, but, Schnapps…..
Adrian
Yep. According to the Terror Graph;
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/power-shock-nsw-families-pay-highest-electricity-prices-in-the-world/news-story/75368ed35e0a817d403868636253e616
daretotread @ #2969 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:01 pm
I am feeling really unheard here. Thanks for straightening me out that you are a Greens leaning Labor supporter and not a Green. Please hear that I am speaking about one thing alone, the Greens strategy/tactic of claiming that Labor and Liberals are the same. It is this that will alienate Green leaning supporters from other camps who see the two major parties as vastly different. Would this not alienate those who have given the Greens their vote in former years who dislike Labor and prefer the LNP? I sure as hell know they’ve alienated me who was a Green leaning Labor supporter. I imagine the same would be true for those who formerly voted for Liberal. I find it interesting that you yourself have not been offended by the suggestion that the ALP and LNP are the same. Why is that?
lizzie
Sorry to hear about your predicament. Hope you’re well and getting better.
Raaraa
Thank you. I’m more worried about my dog than myself . He’s not coping with the separation at all well.
adrian @ #2975 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:10 pm
I share the same concerns and think this escalation of Murdoch extending his empire through his most recent purchase of APN Media needs to be stomped on. I also raise concerns about Michelle Guthrie who owes her career to Rupert Murdoch being made Chief Executive of the ABC. I have seen an escalation in bias since she took over and I find it sad that my favourite TV station is going down the tubes. I found myself preferring commercial stations during much of the campaign and Fact Check in need of some serious fact checking although I won’t need to worry about them anymore since Guthrie has axed them.
I hold out hope though that we have social media to counter this and that Rupie is losing his grip on the strings that manipulate the public sentiment regardless of his growing monopoly. I believe his monopoly is becoming more a house of cards that will fall down eventually. Jimi Hendrix song Castles made of Sand starts playing in my mind now. I shall end this post on that note. 🙂
Who’d believe Turnbull on the harmlessness of the plebiscite?
Wong:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/12/penny-wong-homophobic-election-slurs-perils-marriage-equality-plebiscite
Prior to the election a goodly number of people here did not have much confidence in ABC presentations – particularly when it came to news, current affairs, politics and the like. When some went further to state that there was actual bias towards the LNP side, the friends of the ABC would come out with…”Well, what do you want, the ABC to just support Labor regardless?” as a put down. Then we have the LNP side of politics who are sure that the ABC is nothing but a hot bed of nascent Trotsky-ites fomenting the next Revolution. Some from either right or left want the ABC sold off as it is either useless and/or just a mouthpiece for the other side. My observation is that there is still a lot of really good stuff on the ABC – but I wonder if – due to budget cuts or whatever, it has become too timid, or just trying too hard to be even-handed? I don’t think the ABC is alone in this regard as the BBC is is a similar but, I suspect, much more respected position. Not sure where I stand at the moment. I have the feeling however, that the quality is not what it used to be but then, compared with the mountains of dross elsewhere, it is all relative I guess. I know someone was keeping a tally of perceived bias early in the election and I wonder if they had the stomach to carry it through for the full 8 weeks? Good luck to them if they did.
lizzie @ #2983 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:23 pm
Awww, that’s so sweet. I have two rescue furkids that would be one of my first priorities too and that fret when I am away for a while likewise. Glad you are out of hospital and hope you are feeling heaps better soon. I hope your retriever gets over his tummy upset soon too.
lizzie @ #3032 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 3:50 pm
I can’t offer much advice unfortunately, but I wonder if it might help for you to send to your dog’s carer an article of clothing that still has your smell on it (doesn’t have to be a strong scent, they’ve got sensitive noses). It might calm him down.
nappin @ #3002 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:51 pm
I moved to a rural town in the Scenic Rim, QLD for a few years and discovered similar, except it was Liberal most only voted for. Mind you the Gold Coast where I now live has a lot of these too. I found that the mere mention of Labor evoked an instant block, a wall for most. I found that the only way to reach them was to criticise the Abbott government and bring attention to things they were doing that were not in their best interests. They were happy to participate in these discussions but it was inconceivable for most of them to consider voting for anyone else. The younger ones however were more flexible and PUP last election had a whole heap of younger people enthusiastically campaigning for them so there’s still hope for them yet. Only time will tell.
Raaraa
Thanks, but I’m home now and he’s still not eating properly, with diarrhoea. I’m trying to work out what to feed him. He’s normally so clean around the house that it’s all making him miserable. 🙁
I do not wish to try to teach others how to suck eggs.
Because of various experiences with the health system and with my and my wife’s health in particular, I have taken the usual precautions.
I have made a will and all concerned have a copy.
I have made out a Power of Attorney (ongoing)
I have made out the appropriate medical documents – no heroic efforts to revive etc.
One of my daughters messages me daily (almost). The theory is that if I don’t respond within a reasonable time then a visit will be prompted.
The dog loves said daughter and will, I hope, be looked after in the event of a fatal collapse.
In the meanwhile in the event of the current lot lasting three years in government I have a vast collection of Ebooks, a Kindle and a Tablet ready to go at the rate of 2 (maybe 3) books a week. Only about 460 books. Should I have another TIA (non fatal) I could probably start again as new with old favorite books. I notice that I have again descended into drivel.
Bye and good luck and health to you Lizzie.
briefly @ #3022 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 3:21 pm
I think it’s an idiot compass too because it told me the Greens was the party for me despite the fact I was placed halfway between the Greens and Labor and the questions lacked substance and gristle. I think it is Greens biased and my guess is it was probably created by a Green. I could be wrong but still… I did the hate compass for fun too and it placed me with the Greens likewise. I have heard many Labor left make similar complaints. Labor left are told they should be Greens. Seems like a recruitment tool to me.
lizzie
did he eat the chicken, too?
daretotread @ #2969 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:01 pm
The sight of G-figures traducing other politicians registers with a wide cross-section of voters. It is greeted with dismay by most. The spectacle of pol-on-pol fighting is one of the things most frequently cited by voters. It propels loss of trust, feelings of rejection and disempowerment and a desire to find 3rd-voice choices.
The Labor left is not in decline. It’s alive and kicking.
nicole @ #3041 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 4:36 pm
N…you are a very welcome addition to the bludgers!!
Oh, just remembered
Briefly,
A sterling/stirling effort in Cowan. Congratulations.
Over the years, I’ve valued your economic postings, the anti-Green stuff, not so much. Still, the committed work you’ve done for Ann Aly, as newly-elect MP or Cowan, has been outstanding.
You must feel very proud for your team’s achivement. Good one.
kezza2 @ #3045 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 4:43 pm
Cheers, K2. Everyone is very elated, to say the least…I hope you’re well -:)
New thread.
lizzie
I hope you don’t think I’m being flippant about your recent health concerns because I haven’t commented on the 7-hour ordeal you went through.
I can imagine it; so I don’t want to think about it, other than to wonder what on earth went through your mind while the situation was playing out.
Now that you’re well, or wellish, and your concern is as much about your dogs as your own well-being, I wonder what went through your head in your 7-hour inch-by-inch survival .
Some would see that as callous. I just hope you were okay during that process.
Labor left are invariably told they should be Greens because Labor right pulls Labor party policies further away from most of the left’s positions than Green policies are.
The biggest problem with the compasses is they tend to weight all responses equally. The ones which allow issue weighting tend to be pretty good.
People are more tribal than rational though so being told you’re not actually in tune with your in-groups position is summarily rejected. It’s just a classic cognitive dissonance – the survey said and I’m X, but I feel I’m Y, so they survey must be biased/badly designed/wrong.
In any case, I wouldn’t worry too much about what the survey says. Labor needs lefties pulling it forwards just as much as it needs righties worrying about the centre – it is at its strongest as a party when these two forces are most balanced.
K2….by the way….I know that my comments on the Gs arouse criticism. In a way, the criticism itself is an illustration of one of my observations…..if you will permit me….
When onlookers see a fight going on, they usually will have one of three reactions: they may want to join in; they may step in to break up the fight; they may recoil from it. Most people will cluster in the latter group. Among the bludgers, there are some protagonists who like to argue….Guytaur, POSS, boer, green pheonix, dtt, bemused, Nicholas, Nicole, GG, Pegasus, colton, confessions, T, ratsak, meher baba and myself being among those who are prepared to make exhibitions of ourselves, to some extent or another. Some, inevitably, go way over the limits of good behaviour and throw insults and slurs. But that is about the limit. Nearly everyone else averts their attention.
The same thing can be seen in other, more real, political jousts. Some want to fight. Overwhelmingly, most just want the fighting to stop and for “reason” to prevail…for calm to return. In recent times, when economic and other anxieties have become quite elevated, the wish for calm is really very strong. We could see this expressed in the conduct of voters on polling day itself….voters were, it seemed to me, exhibiting a high degree of “closure” in their facial signs, gait and general demeanour. They were “imposing” calm and quiet on the polling environment. The more people that were present at a time, the more palpable was this feeling.
I think a lot of recent behaviour reflects this split….”rejectionist” feelings in one queue and “calmative” expressions in the other queues….