Results of a poll conducted concurrently with the election on the weekend, and a place for general discussion of the election aftermath.
Kind of old news now, but Essential Research didn’t let Saturday’s election stop them conduct their usual weekly poll, results of which were published on Tuesday and can be found here. I’m continuing to follow the progress of the count here, so you are invited to discuss count-related matters there while continuing discussion of a more general nature here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
I heard the most recent of the conservatives’ line last night as well from our local talk back outfit………………”Shorten has run his race……..”. Attached to this was the “And now we will see the real Malcolm…..no more nasties and a Mr Nice Guy. As well, he looks goo overseas……………….”. Unfortunately, the most recent poll indicates that not only is there no honeymoon period for Turnbull, but as a quirk, the 2PP vote is flat lining if not dipping.
To see a political leader go a full 3 years in opposition, come out at the other end with his foot on the throat of his opposition is a very rare event in Oz politics. The conservatives either don’t want to believe it or can’t. If I were an LNP supporter I would be more concerned that it is Turnbull who is at most risk – at least in the next 12 months or so, of having “run his race”. If I were Shorten I would not be too helpful and let Turnbull continue in self-destruct mode. I just wonder how he will cope with the SSM issue?
With regards to the Joint Sitting. The first thing that has to happen is that the new Parliament has to have the Bill(s) presented to it again AND if the bills are rejected or amended in a way that is unacceptable then their is the option to present the bills to a Joint Sitting where the bills are debated and amendments can be debated. I say this about amendments because the Constitution says “if AFTER the dissolution the bills are rejected or amendments made that are not agreed to by one House” then a JS can debate and he bills and any amendments to it.
The government can now do two things. Drop the bills altogether if they have no chance of passing their bill or the bill will be amended at the JS in such a way that is unacceptable to the government or if it believes it has the numbers go to a JS and pass the bills unamended.
Briefly
The public ignores the media, except when the media reports on something the Greens said about Labor, right?
Bludgers might like to note that the 2PP preferred split in Victoria so far is 48.56/51.44 Liberal/Labor, an increase for Labor of 1.24% on 2013.
moksha @ #2953 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 1:21 pm
lol
Then we can take note of that familiar spectacle where politicians insult other politicians and invoke feelings of shame/blame/guilt/resentment/powerlessness.
This spectacle is thoroughly disheartening for voters. The fault lies with the politicians rather than with the media.
There are a probably 100+ plausible reasons why Turnbull got back…among those were the sheer number of seats Labor had to win from way back, incumbency, uneven swings and inertia on behalf of the electorate. Just enough steam to get there for the LNP. The tortoise almost made it but it is the hare who is likely to go into the political stewing pot at this point in time. While a Labor win would have been great, a Labor win a-la-2010 with the Senate being the mess it is, would have been very heavy going for both the party and its supporter base. Three years from 2010 of living on the edge and wondering if a member of parliament might die and bring the government down at any time, was tough going! In fact, it is interesting that I can’t remember one by-election during the 2010-03 period caused by the demise of a local member on either side. I am probably wrong but if there were no demises then it must be some kind of record – not that it matters now.
david @ #2941 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 12:31 pm
Quite right.
tricot @ #2956 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 1:28 pm
Yes….as Canning showed, by-elections are potentially very dangerous for Governments and PMs. A House vacancy due to disaffection, illness or death of an LNP member would create opportunities for Turnbot’s many opponents inside as well as outside the Government.
Toorak Toff
I remember the 1961 election well. It was my first vote and the only time I voted Liberal because Calwell turned me right off. The next election I’d worked out that the Menzies credit squeeze in 1961 and his damn well do nothing Govt except keep us at the arske end of the world was not the way to keep my vote.
The Libs can point to Howard’s close shave in 1998 but I don’t think the voters of today, especially the young , are as gullible. Turnbull is for the fight of his life now.
Lizzie – just read of your trip to hospital. Enjoy being home and get well quickly. Big hug.
TRICOT – When you consider there was only one unpopular Lib govt in power (WA) Shorten’s achievement was remarkable. I think Ratsak? make the point that if Can-Do had won the last Qld election, Turnbull would have been annihilated. That’s the luck of the game.
The problem with allowing amendments to double dissolution bills after the election is that there is really no limit to what might be added now as an amendment. If the re-elected government has the numbers in a joint sitting then they could add any number of changes. That is not what the constitution deadlock provision is for – it is to sort bills blocked before the election.
The government can try and get an amended bill through the new Senate but it cannot then use the deadlock provisions as a backup. If it can’t get an amended bill through then it has the option of presenting the deadlocked bill, including previous amendments, to a joint sitting.
“Queensland may have a lacklustre state government , but there must be more to it when Labor can lead in more than half a dozen seats on election night and lose the whole bang lot on postals and absents. Overall, one seat gained by Labor off the Coalition, another by the Coalition off Clive Palmer. Even stevens. Very disappointing.”
Queensland is a problem for Labor federally, it’s history repeating itself. There were five seats that Labor fell short in 1998 election that Labor missed out under a 1.5% margin which cost Labor dearly. I guess the tide didn’t swing strong enough for Labor to make inroads in QLD, but Queensland is going to have alot LNP seats on fragile margins for 2019. Expect alot attention from both parties in Queensland at the next campaign.
Mike LaFave
“As someone who will boundlessly enjoy voting for the first female POTUS , I don’t find Trump any worse than the previous half century of regressive Republican nominees. Trump has a fair chance to win the Electoral College. ”
I agree with your first point; but not the second. Trump will have a VERY hard task winning a majority in the Electoral College.
Yes, most of the former Condeferate states are diehard Republican – though some states are peeling off (Virginia now Dem-leaning; N.Carolina now GOP-leaning rather than solid red). According to current polling, most of the swing states look terrible for Trump. Even some reliably Republican states are now in play (Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, maybe even Utah) because Trump is so unpopular. (Yes, Clinton is unpopular, but not nearly to the same degree; and the Dem base love her, which helps turnout.)
The Democrats will likely not win the House, owing (in part) to rampant gerrymandering. But the Dems have a decent shot at winning back the Senate. It remains to be seen if (or to what extent) Trump infects the down-ticket races.
david @ #2962 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 1:45 pm
The only good thing about Queensland is that the problem is self-correcting. As the flood of aged retiree migrants from other states … err … stop voting … Queensland will become gradually more progressive.
I don’t think that anyone can say with any degree of certainty exactly what the impact of the unrelenting campaign on behalf of the spivs by the media had.
However, it is clear that had this campaign not been conducted, so close was the election, that Labor would undoubtedly have won.
briefly
We saw, on Sky late yesterday, the clip of Ann and her terrific team enjoying your win in Cowan. The elation came through the screen. I hope you were there. If so it will be great for your family archives.
Lizzie
Have a rest and get well.
Who else do I talk to at 5:45AM.
player one @ #2904 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 11:21 am
Cheap shot.
Just wait until she’s back firing on all cylinders.
Great to see you back Lizzie.
Nicole
No I do not think greens/Labor slagging will have influences ALL voters, just a subset.
And for the 1000th time I am NOT a green. i am a green leading LABOR voter and hard bloody Labor worker.
However I support progressive policies and am saddened by the decline of the left in the ALP. I see the Greens/Labor fighting as the mainstream ALP trying to exorcise its left wing. I feel fairly confident that MOST of you who are slagging off at the Greens are ALP right wiongers of various kinds. Destructiv,e internicine, young labor antics of the very worst kind.
Now Briefly I know you have denied this but I would be very surprised if many of the most vitriolic anti greeners are anything but active paid up members of the ALP right wing. Many of you have made it pretty clear – GG of course makes no secret of his views (I respect him because he is at least honest), Cat who has indicated she attended NSW conference and given her views on many matters I would assume she is a proud member of the NSW right, Bemused is NOT factional, but was in a former life. He is definitely NOT of the left.
I think that most members of the ALP left regard the Greens with tolerance as close cousins with shared values.
@ Adrian – that’s hardly fair.
Every election is a battle with the Liberals, Big Business, IPA, Journalists and Churches one one side, and Labor, Unions, and Get Up on the other side.
Sure, without the journalists, the Coalition would have done worse. But without the Unions, Labor would have done worse.
If it weren’t for Russia, The Allies would have lost WWI and WWII.
lizzie @ #2908 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 11:26 am
That’s part of the cost cutting.
Increases your motivation to get out so it reduces individual costs whilst increasing bed numbers.
Its snowing.
Trees down all over the place. Which is good, cause I am churning through the wood.
Lizzie, what sort of scan did they do? From experience, a second scan or a higher level scan may be worth lobbying for.
SK
“Suck it up, Princess”.
“@ Adrian – that’s hardly fair.
Every election is a battle with the Liberals, Big Business, IPA, Journalists and Churches one one side, and Labor, Unions, and Get Up on the other side.”
Yeah, I know. Shit, I remember The Australian getting stuck into Gough back in the day when it was a newspaper.
However a big difference was that in those days the ABC was pretty impartial, as it has generally been in every election campaign apart from this one.
This is why I am not amiably disposed towards Papa di Natale. He is too fond of smearing Labor to the Press and comes over as a know-it-all.
adrian @ #2965 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 1:52 pm
The only way would know that would be if we were to go and ask the Tory voters in those tight Queensland seats just why they voted the way they did. We might also ask all the Labor voters the same questions….
Most voters have fixed attitudes on most issues. Change certainly occurs, but it’s doubtful it’s driven by deliberate political campaigning by the media….very doubtful. It’s worth asking where this fixity comes from….especially when we consider that even though we are all exposed to the same media products, we exhibit such variable responses to “news”.
My own experience with the MSM is they lie. They do not tell the truth even about their own actions, let alone about those who are the subjects of their “stories”. I apply 95% discount/95% forget factors to just about everything I see reported.
The evidence is that most voters assign a very low level of reliability to media products. They know implicitly that what they see is just “story”. It is to be mistrusted in the absence of confirming information. People are not at all as stupid as is so commonly assumed.
Hey lizzie
Good to see you back on deck.
I’d hoped you were just having power outages.
The positive from the scans, I guess, is that there’s no sign of strokes, etc. So, that’s good.
Who took care of the pooches?
Simon Katich
Because I had gone through a kind of muscular weakness (seven hours on the bedroom floor and couldn’t get up) they gave me a chest X-ray and a head MRI. Assured me no sign of a stroke.
Silliest question of the day: why didn’t you call an ambulance? Answer: because I was upstairs and the mobile was across the room, so I had to gather enough strength to get to it, and inching along the floor took 7 hrs. (Memo to me: keep mobile charged and beside me at all times).
@ Adrian – it is a shame, but unless you can honestly say you would rather be fired than sell out your principles then you shouldn’t criticise.
When Labor win the next election, they need to enshrine the ABC’s impartiality, charter and budget in the constitution. CEO to be appointed/fired by 75% of members in both houses, not appointed by a single person’s say so.
PS lizzie
Agree about di Natale. Strange opinion he has, given that he was a GP before entering parly.
Lizzie
I would have to agree that Di Natale has probably not been a good leader for the Greens. probably better than Milne but not by much.
Now I have no problem with their change in the Senate rules but wonder why on earth they coupled it with a DD. I also do not mind their compromise on Taxation transparency – something is better than nothing.
However their cosying up to the Vic Liberals was too slick by half and while it might not have ever amounted much more than a casual chat, it was not a good look. There are SOME Greens that I find just a bit too “Meg Lees” for me. Whish-Wilson and Nick McKim for example.
I would like to see Larissa Waters or Scott Ludlam as leaders. I am not a big Bandt fan – not quite sure why.
kezza2
First thing I did, once I had a phone, was call a friend and arrange for her to look after the dogs. We all have our priorities! Unfortunately the Retriever fretted so badly he wouldn’t eat and still has an upset tummy.
Joined ABC YourSpace the other day with a view to being able to comment as aprt of a community (constructively, of course) on the ABC’s takeover by conservative forces, and the overpaid sycophantic Coalition groupies running news and current affairs.
Gravely disappointed.
The first ‘activity’ they would have me ‘participate’ in is a ranking of a bunch of Australian actors including most of those in ABC programming. In exchange for succumbing to their bullshit ‘community’ which is just a market survey, I’ll be put in a monthly prize draw to maybe get a chance to win a voucher for the ABC shop. Maybe. Woop-de-doo.
Well fuck off ABC, stop representing your market survey as some sort of ‘community’, and do your job as an impartial content provider.
Lizzie
Glad to hear that nothing sinister came up in the scans!
Lizzie
Goodness me. Just saw your post above!!
CTar1
[“Suck it up, Princess”.]
I made no complaint. Mountain tribe DNA. Although that overconfidence did once nearly kill me as I tried to swim naked across a half frozen lake in the Julian Alps.
I nearly did it again crossing a stream on the Cascade Saddle in NZ.
Slow learner.
lizzie
Couldn’t imagine you doing anything else.
Our loyal friends deserve our loyalty.
simon katich @ #2972 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:04 pm
Simon,
31 here and I’m sitting in my bordies with the a/c cranked up.
Lovely.
SK – The Thames is much easier.
Tricot at 1:28
There were no by-elections for any reason during the 43rd parliament, only the 4th time that’s happened:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_federal_by-elections
And just eyeballing that list, it looks like death is fairly uncommon. Prior to Don Randall there were 2 during the 39th (1998-2001) – Peter Nugent & Greg Wilton. The next most recent was Eric Robinson in 1981
lizzie @ #2979 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:20 pm
Scary,
Glad you kept going.
Phew, lizzie, 7 hours is an excruciating length of time. More power to you for the strength of mind to work your way to the mobile.
One of our rural neighbours had a similar thing with all the tests coming back negative. The hospital would only say that it could be a virus they have not yet caught up with. Election fever?!!!
Narns……..thanks for that. Canberra must be a lot more healthy than it seems to be in terms of its cold winters and hot summers. Mind you, if the demise of members is not that high, I would think that the demise of marriages would make up for it. I wonder if the divorce rate for Federal politicians is higher than that of the general public and how much of that, if it were so, is due to the charms of Canberra?
Barney
https://img.s-msn.com/tenant/amp/entityid/BBdnYme.img?h=373&w=624&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f
player one @ #2964 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 1:50 pm
I went to check whether it didn’t matter that aged retirees fall off the twig – after all, if they are replaced by slightly less aged immigrants, it makes no never mind.
I found this, which gives credence to your proposal:
lizzie
Just read about your frightening experience as well.
Best of luck getting some resolution to this.
daretotread @ #2969 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 2:01 pm
dtt…It does not follow that Labor voices that choose to contest the G’s anti-Labor campaign are factionally aligned. It just does not follow at all. You are a G-apologist who identifies with the “Labor-left”. It does not follow at all that those who disagree with you about the Gs are from the “Labor-right”. It just means they disagree with you with respect to the Gs. It is exactly that simple.
My own personal story is one of lifelong introspection, self-interrogation and self-exploration; of practical commitments against racism, sexism, violence, religious bigotry and the exploitation of workers; of exertions in favour of personal independence, social justice, emancipation and self-determination; of activism and expression based on shared values. This does not qualify me as left or right. It simply means I fit into a very long and venerable tradition as a Labor-believer. I rather see myself as a unifier than as a divider; as a partisan-within-Labor.
Life would be a lot simpler for you if you were to stop trying to label people…especially, when you do not know them at all.
Last night I had the pleasure of a brief meal with some volunteers from WA Labor. They are much younger than I am. I don’t think they quite know what to make of me, but they are generous and accepting of me. They represent the brightest right and the shiniest left of Labor youth. On parting, I made a point of telling them that I am delighted to know them. As I explained, the reason is because they prove to me that the things I believed in when I was their age are still alive and well.
This is a very much more satisfying account of things than the application of labels.
Sky News Australia
2h2 hours ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
.@mattjcan says @Barnaby_Joyce is ‘captain, coach and selector’ when it comes to frontbench positions #auspol http://snpy.tv/29ukH0d
[SK – The Thames is much easier.]
Dirty river. But quite an achievement.
I forget, you got arrested on that little paddle?