Results of a poll conducted concurrently with the election on the weekend, and a place for general discussion of the election aftermath.
Kind of old news now, but Essential Research didn’t let Saturday’s election stop them conduct their usual weekly poll, results of which were published on Tuesday and can be found here. I’m continuing to follow the progress of the count here, so you are invited to discuss count-related matters there while continuing discussion of a more general nature here.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Voters are well and truly over the acid politics of the Gs. For them, there are far more important things to be dealt with than G vanity. Labor will respond to the voters and in so doing will certainly prevail. The Gs are just another obstacle among the many that must be overcome and that will be overcome.
Cute pep talk, but it’s not an answer to my question.
The Gs should take note that in many seats the prefs their supporters assign to Labor are fewer than the prefs that come from supporters of other 3rd voices. Labor can make great gains by ignoring the petulance and the acrimony of the Gs. Politics is changing in ways that assuredly do not favour the Gs who are now just one among many minor voices.
There’s just no doubt now…Labor will set out to reach the supporters of the Gs and all the other 3rd-voices as well as the disaffected Libs. We will meet our old friends and make some new ones. We will talk with them. We know how to do this and we have the means to do it. We will draw our companions together and rebuild the Labor plurality. We can change the way politics is conducted and the way it is concluded. This is going to happen.
president of the solipsist society @ #2850 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 3:25 am
The G campaign is tearing apart the deeply held beliefs of their supporters. It is not possible to be both for Labor and against Labor at the same time for very long. And yet this is the basic demand of the G-campaign. It requires people to accept a contradiction. This will not last. It is already leading to decay of the G base. This was obvious on Saturday 2 July, when there were literally no booth workers to be seen anywhere at all in, for example, the seat of Cowan. Not a single one.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-coalition-hopes-of-passing-the-abcc-bills-are-growing–and-pauline-hanson-could-hold-the-key-20160711-gq34e4.html
Doesn’t that mean the laws won’t pass as is in the Joint Sitting?
Badham paused, as the audience processed that they’d just watched a grown man dismiss a woman as being “hysterical” literally while she was explaining how dismissive attitudes to women feed into a culture of gender-violence, Badham delivered the coup de grace.
“It’s probably my ovaries making me do it, Steve.”
Quote. Of. The. Year.
On a related note: if #myovariesmademe isn’t a trending hashtag by sunrise, internet, then you’ve let your nation down.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-recap-steve-prices-hysterical-insult-prompts-a-mic-drop-from-van-badham-20160712-gq3jco.html#ixzz4E8U47eQm
Morning all. Turnbull may be PM but it is a hollow victory. As surely as I was robocalled by the Liberal Party on my private mobile without my permission, the Senate will see Turnbull struggle to pass any of his more odious “reforms”. Looking at the swag of Liberal seats on tiny margins, he will not run back to the polls either. We may all wish for another election soon, but we will not get one before 2019.
Shorten can take heart from a good campaign and a solid policy program. Protecting medicare and fixing negative gearing are both socially just and responsible policies. More of the same please!
The only negative for me (and Labor) was the foolish and nasty attacks on the Greens and NXT. They only made Labor look desperate. Looking at the close contests, it is an unfortunate fact that Labor preferencing strategy may have meant the difference between a majority and minority Turnbull government. Imagine how much less stable the latter might have been! That is winning a few battles but losing the war. I support Labor and consider some Green policies loopy. But I would still prefer a Green MP to a Liberal one. Same for NXT. Remember the saying, “my enemies enemy is my friend”.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s going to be another very rough day here in the Adelaide Hills again today.
Peter Hartcher writes that although the US is sitting on a social powder keg there is no room for Australia to be smug.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-cant-afford-to-be-smug-about-americas-great-unsolved-problems-20160711-gq35e7.html
James Massola tries to do the numbers on a joint sitting over the ABCC bill. And he thinks it might be up to Pauline Hanson.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/australian-federal-election-2016-coalition-hopes-of-passing-the-abcc-bills-are-growing–and-pauline-hanson-could-hold-the-key-20160711-gq34e4.html
Shorten taunts Turnbull to enlighten Australia with the details of the deal with the Nationals.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-bill-shorten-calls-for-a-new-liberalnational-coalition-deal-to-be-made-public-20160711-gq2zx9.html
Will Bill Shorten block the plebiscite?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/will-bill-shorten-block-the-samesex-marriage-plebiscite-20160711-gq31we.html
Jennifer Hewett with the Coalition’s win and losses post election. Quite a good read. Google.
/opinion/columnists/coalition-wins-and-losses-post-election-20160711-gq34k6
Michael Gordon outlines the testing times ahead for both leaders.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/testing-times-for-both-leaders-20160710-gq2ktb.html
As does Michelle Grattan.
https://theconversation.com/nationals-ministerial-claims-complicate-turnbulls-reshuffle-62311
And Quentin Dempster.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2016/07/11/nationals-secret-coalition-agreement/
Nicholas Stuart in the Canberra Times says that Turnbull is on borrowed time.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/nicholas-stuart-column-20160711-gq37tw.html
Shaun Carney tells us that Turnbull needs an ideas boom of his own. Google.
/news/opinion/malcolm-turnbull-needs-an-ideas-boom-of-his-own/news-story/a0cf277c8b2a4e273b61d0b81b77e22a
Peter Reith dishes out his weekly emetic saying Shorten won’t get any closer next time.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bill-shorten-isnt-any-closer-to-winning-the-next-election-20160711-gq33ih.html
The Australian tells us the ministers were advised about the backlash on its superannuation policy. From QandA last night it was obvious that Brandis certainly wasn’t listening. Google.
/federal-election-2016/ministers-warned-malcolm-turnbull-over-superannuation-tax-changes/news-story/82e698eed9edb6b03ed21ce3425ffae7
Michael West reveals the tax avoidance architects.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/07/11/architects-global-tax-avoidance-revealed/
Section 2 . . .
BestJet is certainly one outfit to avoid like the plague!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/budget-airfare-website-bestjet-accused-of-misleading-customers-20160622-gpp6n5.html
Music to one’s ears from Richard Denniss- Why the BCA doesn’t deserve public influence. Google.
/opinion/columnists/election-2016-why-the-bca-doesnt-deserve-public-influence-20160711-gq33gx
The Mehajar wedding of the century crashes and burns as the missus seeks an AVO against the arrogant husband.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajers-wife-aysha-applies-for-avo-against-the-former-councillor-20160711-gq3ka7.html
“View from the Street” with a sure fire guide to wealth in Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/the-surefire-path-to-wealth-in-australia-already-be-rich-20160711-gq2xt6.html
In the shadow of the jailing of uncontrite, greedy arsehole Oliver Curtis the SMH calls for a Royal Commission into financial services.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/greed-is-not-good-the-importance-of-jailing-oliver-curtis-20160624-gprgm4.html
And Wacka Williams is not giving up on that industry.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/11/nationals-senator-wants-focus-on-life-insurance-industry-and-veterans
It’s getting worse and worse for the Parramatta Eels.
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/parramatta-eels/parramatta-eels-officials-jason-irvine-and-scott-seward-admit-underthetable-payments-20160711-gq3et2.html
Prize goose Steve Price makes a goose of himself on QandA – with help from Van Badham.
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-recap-steve-prices-hysterical-insult-prompts-a-mic-drop-from-van-badham-20160712-gq3jco.html
The Yanks get their daily mass shooting – this time inside a courthouse.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/multiple-people-shot-dead-at-michigan-courthouse-reports-20160711-gq3jst.html
This story highlights the next area of reform Labor should target: multi national tax dodging. Enough revenue is lost from this problem to balance the budget, pay for schools and still not tax workers any more.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-11/corporate-tax-minimisation-costs-governments-1-trillion/7587092
The Liberals will never do it, and Greens and NXT would support it, so it is also a great political wedge. Have a good day all.
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
Ron Tandberg with an inconvenient truth for Bill Shorten.
And Roy in the Herald-Sun is doing something similar.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/849dd2bf19393841f30f33958a4ff743?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
Pat Campbell takes greyhound racing into the Senate.
David Rowe is suggesting that Turnbull is in for a difficult leadership ride.
Bill Leak has had his sights set on Barnaby Joyce lately.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/463728125a64f4a3d53a1b9c58f10b83
Sceptic – just watched the Steve Price Q&A clip…..can not believe people like him are paid well to peddle their trash.
Have to admit I like the project and having him on it often shows the contrast of views and how baseless and stupid those views can be on that forum.
He was actually getting angry that he was getting grouped in to the sexist views discussed and then highlights how sexist he is without any insight at all at how it adds to the problems discussed.
It reminds me of the same sex marriage discussion with those opposed feeling offended that their views are suddenly challenged as not being mainstream and correct – yep they are wrong. The impact of sexism and domestic violence is beyond horrific and as a man I feel I need to speak up when in a group of mates and it happens…..this occurred recently on a discussion re Caroline Wilson the sports journalist with someone saying that ‘bi..h’ should get back to where she came from
As far as polls go this the impact of the right wing rump and what the impact they want to have on Turnball ie Abetz, Bernadi etc is scary to me
One more thing. Let us have no “tactical” stances by Labor against a SSM plebiscite as an excuse to put off the popular will for another term. Demand a vote in parliament now AND agree to a plebiscite. That way you can point out the plebiscite is an unnecessary waste of money due to the hard core Liberal fundies.
Socrates ….the continual bagging of Labor is now boring, criticism should go both ways not just to Labor. The rest of your points I agree with!
Scoutdog
I am a supporter, not a paid PR consultant. I write far more comments critical of the Liberals. I have encountered individuals in every political party who love the power, but hate getting criticised when they misuse it. Too bad. Putting up with that is how Eddie Obeid stayed in power so long. It is misguided loyalty.
How many votes did that message win you?
fair call Socrates, did not see Labor being critical of the Greens and NXT as desperate but strong. Dunno what Eddie has to do with anything except that he was dodgy and had a lot to do with both the Coalition and Labor.
I agree they need to be strong in bringing votes on in parliament and it is time to do so, they have been disciplined and smart up to now and reckon they will continue to be so.
The debate that should be going on now is re this perception of ‘mandate’ I like how Shorten is stating he will work with the Coalition but still pointing out the negative effect of the tax cuts to few and lack of investment in services.
The narrative re mandate will be very interesting in the next 6 months expect it will be different to Pyne and Burke!
“Supporting a party other than the one you vote for might be a hard idea to grasp for one-eyed partisan hacks such as yourself, but I offer it up anyway in the hope that it can be understood by those not as far gone as you are.”
‘How many votes did that message win you?’
SOPP or whatever isn’t interested in votes – misplaced moral superiority is more his thing.
Scoutdog – How could the libs have a “Mandate” for the tax cuts for big business when Turnbull told the electorate that they shouldn’t worry about the tax cuts because Labor could reverse them later!!!! Well, Malcolm, that time has arrived!
RAARAA – That has got my scratching my head. You can’t amend a bill at a joint sitting, methinks. But, of course, the children at the SMH know better.
Kevin-one-seven: mandate occurs due to sense of entitlement;
socrates @ #2863 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 8:15 am
I think Labor will be guided by what those seeking Marriage Equality want. You can do the right thing and still wedge your opponents, because they are split over doing the right thing.
As for the plebiscite, recall that the Coalition would not even put the form of the question it proposes for the plebiscite into the public arena before the election. Bill Shorten and Labor are well within their rights to refuse to back a plebiscite when the exact question (and whether there are hidden tricks in it) is still unknown.
For my part, and I suspect most other supporters of marriage equality, the line that Bill Shorten and Labor should take is to support the proposal that will deliver the necessary simple change to the Marriage Act as soon as possible and with as little financial and emotional cost as possible. Technically this should be a free vote in the Parliament. But if that fails, a genuine plebiscite held this year is the next option. A dirty plebiscite question delayed until, say, the next election is not.
excellent comment by my son on the Liberal’s Medicare privatisation.
There may not be a policy but there is definitely a strategy.
Broelman and what Turnbull has in store for himself.
I went and checked out what the constitution says about bills that can be put to a joint sitting. The relevant part of section 57 states:
My very quick reading of that section is that the government can get the ABCC bill through Parliament the normal way – or through a joint sitting if necessary – in an amended form, provided that both houses separately, or in a joint sitting, agree to the amendments.
So Massola might, for once, have it right in terms of the Government being able to win over enough members of the new Senate and/or House cross-benchers to pass the legislation.
“Come on Herbert, we want 69.”
That’s what she said? 😉
Strange that it was West Coast Eagles players that his guy was managing!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-12/former-afl-player-manager-angie-papadopoulos-facing-drug-charges/7588614
Regarding the Liberal leadership.
With Turbull making deal with the Right to get the PM job.
And with many Liberals supposedly hating Credlin.
I could imagine the situation where Abbott would only be accepted back if he did not bring back Credlin.
That would be fun to watch.
kakuru @ #2876 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 9:47 am
Was that a plea from the Sex Party?
TPOF – I stand to be corrected, but isn’t s57 saying that only amendments passed by one house and rejected by the other during the last parliament can be put forward? Were X’s amendments passed by the senate? Lousy drafting.
“The Greens exist in no small part to threaten Labor. They give Labor an ultimatum: either spend more money defending your seats, or adopt policy positions closer to ours. If voters flip a Labor seat Green, it means that Labor has become unrepresentative. ”
Garbage. Melbourne got flipped Green because Adam Bandt got Liberal preferences, Labor actually got a higher primary vote then Bandt in the 2010 election.
kevin-one-seven @ #2880 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 9:55 am
Yes, that’s my reading. You cannot propose new amendments, only approve old ones that were not previously approved by both houses.
Very funny BK. 😀
Morning bludgers
I saw bits of qanda. Steve Price proved once again what an egoist he is. Same with Brandis and Hinch. Sigh……
Do the people on this blog who are always complaining about the Greens think that, if the Green Party suddenly evaporated these people would vote Labor? That’s nuts. They have their own party because they don’t want to vote Labor: e.g. because they don’t like its union affiliations, don’t think it is progressive enough, has people like Feeney, etc etc. Get over it. They are a separate party with separate interests. Indeed, from the ALP point of view it is better that the “Green” voters are outside the tent rather than inside causing trouble (e.g. see what’s happened with British Labour).
@ David – and now Melbourne is still Green, even though the Liberals preference Labor over Greens.
Are you saying that the only reason Labor hold some of their seats is because of Liberal preferences and the advantage of incumbency? Losing either of these two seems to result in the seat going Green
kevin-one-seven @ #2880 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 9:55 am
It is poor drafting, but I’ve looked again and that is not my reading. In the first paragraph I quoted there are the words “or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree”. This clearly allows the Senate to amend the Bill in question again after the Double Dissolution. If the Government has agreed to the amendments with enough cross-bench senators, the Bill, as amended by the Senate, can then be passed by the Reps and become law.
If that does not happen, the second paragraph quoted, which provides for the joint sitting says “The members present at the joint sitting may deliberate and shall vote together upon the proposed law as last proposed by the House of Representatives, and upon amendments, if any, which have been made therein by one House and not agreed to by the other” (my bolding).
In my reading, that provision clearly contemplates amendments being made both in the resubmission of the bill to each house separately and then in the joint sitting process. No doubt, if there is any doubt, the High Court will be asked for a definitive interpretation.
Worth listening to… does anyone change their point of view…
For many on the Left, Trump’s popularity confirms their worst suspicions: that half of the population are fascistic morons. Similarly, President Obama’s presidency has confirmed for many on the Right that half of the population are America-hating elitists (who are also morons). According to Michael Lind, co-founder of the New America Foundation, these myths we perpetuate to explain how someone could have a different political, religious, or economic belief than we do are perhaps the most dangerous lies of all.
http://www.wnyc.org/story/elitist-traitors-vs-fascist-morons1
victoria @ #2884 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 10:06 am
It’s a great feature of QandA where idiots who have a lot power and audience reach but could not argue their way out of a paper bag are very simply shown up for what they are by an intelligent, articulate person who doesn’t normally have that level of exposure.
Price you are a fool and I suspect not a very intelligent one so unfortunately I don’t think you will learn from the experience.
Barney in saigon
My view is that Steve Price would be enjoying the attention. That is how people like him roll……
victoria @ #2890 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 10:31 am
It’s part of the mantra of a RWNJ.
Barney in saigon
Most definitely
Barney
Price will go out for a long lunch with his mates Eddie and Sam and they will tell him what a great job he did putting that Sheila in her place,.
It’s what they do.
Rossmcg
Yep. They are so damn predictable and nauseating.
rossmcg @ #2893 Tuesday, July 12, 2016 at 10:43 am
They may even have a good laugh about how long she would last if held down under water – after checking that there were no open mics nearby (the only thing they would have learnt from the experience).
Van Badham
20m20 minutes ago
Van Badham @vanbadham
My response to Steve Price; interview on @abccentralvic radio this morning. #myovariesmademe @QandA @JennaPrice
https://soundcloud.com/abccentralvictoria/steve-price-is-never-going-to-get-it-and-thats-a-tragedy-van-badham …
Hello everyone.
I’m home, feeling too discombobulated to post much, but am enjoying your conversation.
Turnbull’s the dog who chased the car and caught it, but is finding that there ‘s a couple of large and angry mastiffs inside. Now what to do? 😆
Lizzie
Glad to hear from you. Hope you are feeling better?
Steve Price is a dangerous pig-ignorant yobbo.
Get well soon Lizzie.