Essential Research: 50-50

Results of a poll conducted concurrently with the election on the weekend, and a place for general discussion of the election aftermath.

Kind of old news now, but Essential Research didn’t let Saturday’s election stop them conduct their usual weekly poll, results of which were published on Tuesday and can be found here. I’m continuing to follow the progress of the count here, so you are invited to discuss count-related matters there while continuing discussion of a more general nature here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,056 comments on “Essential Research: 50-50”

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  5. boerwar @ #2749 Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:02 pm

    Plibesek running rings around the Right Rabble on health issues.

    I wish she would issue a flat denial that the alleged robo-call in the middle of the night came from Labor.
    On the phone-bank we stopped at 8:00pm or, in the last couple of days, 8:30pm. I simply do not believe any calls, robo or otherwise were made ‘in the middle of the night’.

  7. Derryn Hinch – people’s opinion? I think on crime and punishment he will vote with the Coalition, but other issues he will vote with The Greens (Euthanasia, Animal issues) and Labor (health, education) on a number of things.

  8. B
    Plibersek gets it better than you. As soon as you start talking about the robocalls you have lost.
    She ignored that and went into Labor’s main argument.
    D.E.A.D.L.Y.

  10. ides of march @ #2757 Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:06 pm

    Derryn Hinch – people’s opinion? I think on crime and punishment he will vote with the Coalition, but other issues he will vote with The Greens (Euthanasia, Animal issues) and Labor (health, education) on a number of things.

    Derryn Hinch doesn’t vote.

  13. That SMH article on ABCC seems a bit wacky. Claiming that NXT will support the bills with some amendments. Well guess what – amendments wont be allowed as part of a joint house sitting. It is the current bills or nothing.

  15. wakefield @ #2763 Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:09 pm

    That SMH article on ABCC seems a bit wacky. Claiming that NXT will support the bills with some amendments. Well guess what – amendments wont be allowed as part of a joint house sitting. It is the current bills or nothing.

    Well that fixes that. They will oppose I presume. 😀

  22. Why does NSW, and mostly western/outer Sydney, have 9 of the top 10 seats with the highest informal voting in the HOR – averaging 10%. Compared to the lowest 10 which are in the wealthy/best educated areas averaging about 2.5%. Great example of ordinary people missing out on democracy. Labor should move heaven and earth to sort out such anomalies.

  23. Very poor Qanda tonight. It’s the march of rightwing populists when it comes to ramming home their own talking points.

  26. bemused @ #2765 Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:10 pm

    wakefield @ #2763 Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:09 pm

    That SMH article on ABCC seems a bit wacky. Claiming that NXT will support the bills with some amendments. Well guess what – amendments wont be allowed as part of a joint house sitting. It is the current bills or nothing.

    Well that fixes that. They will oppose I presume.

    If the Coalition is desperate enough, they’ll reconsider the amendments that’s passed through the Senate and reconsider the amended version and forget about a joint sitting. I can’t see it gaining 6 other crossbenchers though.

  32. ‘Raaraa
    Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:20 pm
    I don’t see why Hinch can’t just go to the ballot box and give a blank vote.’
    It would save us several million words worth of Hinch rantings.

  34. Found a useful example of donkey vote in HOR. Need to find a group with no campaign and no recognisable presence. Citizens Electoral Council usually a good candidate. On Line Democracy group had the poll position for New England and got 0.89% in HOR. Also had a Senate team high up on NSW list at Group E – got 0.33%. Not directly comparable but pretty good evidence of a HOR donkey vote of about 0.5% for this seat in HOR. Donkey likely to be higher in seats with high informals and vice versa – New England about average on HOR informals at about 5.5%.

  38. IOF
    I don’t have any difficulty with people who vote Greens.
    At all.
    What I have difficulty with is their robust refusal to accept the obvious consequences thereof.

  39. With the AEC counting through the weekend and still putting up updates till about 9 pm each night I suppose PVO and this headless chook supporters will be complaining about overtime for AEC workers soon.

  42. boerwar @ #2788 Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:25 pm

    IOF
    I don’t have any difficulty with people who vote Greens.
    At all.
    What I have difficulty with is their robust refusal to accept the obvious consequences thereof.

    What about where i’ve voted Labor? Dont I have to accept the obvious consequences thereof? 🙂

  45. There are some fair reasons to remove Saddam Hussein from power, but why him in particular among all the other dictators that has existed then and still exist now?

  48. bemused @ #2793 Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    ides of march @ #2785 Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:23 pm

    boerwar @ #2781 Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    LOL. Bahham and Price both admit to having voted Greens once.

    I’ve voted Green many times. Do I need to now expect an earful?

    Well some people are even stupid enough to vote LNP.

    Without wanting to disappoint you, I can see why people would vote for the LNP. They have different priorities to others, just like you and I probably do. You can keep your hat on though, I dont like many of their policies.

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