State of confusion: day three

Another open thread for general post-election discussion.

A thread for general discussion of the political environment as the nation hangs on late counting, the intricacies of which may be discussed in the post above this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,823 comments on “State of confusion: day three”

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  1. RB
    It will not be as dire as Gillard confronting the ruthless Abbott but the Government may at any one time, be looking for pairs for quite a few people at any one time.
    I am sure that Labor will rise to the various thresholds set by Abbott.

  2. FWIW
    I would be happy to see poker machines banned.
    But… pokies are old hat.
    The up and comer is online gambling. No pokies needed.

  3. BW

    Yes I agree. We have a chance to regulate online before it gets out of control and vested interests get too powerful.

  4. Her mistake was in promising reform in the first place.

    It wasn’t a mistake to promise to make sensible changes to spare hundreds of thousands of people the misery of lost life savings, lost homes, and wrecked families. It was her job to do something about it, and she failed. She was too gutless and too clever-by-half with the Peter Slipper maneouvre, and it blew up in her face big time. In the meantime, the problem remains unsolved.

  6. https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/07/05/state-confusion-day-three/comment-page-35/#comment-2443354

    I would wait for the result in Melbourne Ports before being sure that the Green representation is 100% male (with only 1 MP is has to be 100% something; whether that is male female or another category). It could end up 50:50, if the Greens win Victoria. I also not that the green representation in the Senate is likely to be 5:4 female:male.

  7. Boerwar

    I think the Scottish influence and the brand of C of E types that arrived early on played a big part. Much desire to make a ‘better’ society than what was back in the UK. Added to that were the Maoris. They very early on engaged with the Europeans and were organised, powerful enough that the settlers had to deal with them as equals and sometimes superiors.

  8. From the NYT
    The report is likely to underline in Britain the sense that Mr. Blair was “Washington’s poodle,” in the phrase widely used by Mr. Blair’s critics at the time. The report says the lessons from the British government’s conduct are that “all aspects” of military intervention “need to be calculated, debated and challenged with the utmost rigor,” and decisions, once made, “need to be implemented fully.”

  9. Tom

    Much as I am no fan of Danby it looks as if the greens have fallen out of the race in Melbourne Ports. Mind you I suspect it will be a Liberal win there, by a very narrow margin.

  10. Sky News Australia
    Sky News Australia – Verified account ‏@SkyNewsAust

    Michael Kroger says the Mediscare campaign bite hardest in the ‘less well educated electorates’. #theboltreport http://snpy.tv/29wQmTq
    2:52 AM – 6 Jul 2016
    35 RETWEETS15 LIKES

  12. Poroti

    Yes they were employing people with Maori heritage in government way back in 1840s. It was also quite fashionable to marry Maori “royalty.” My uncle way back 4 generations was one such and his son was employed in the government. Sadly killed by a Maori revolt

  13. the thing about “both parties being the same” doesn’t apply to policy. Its how people see the institution of politics itself. People on both sides of politics are dedicated to the system and how its ongoing functioning. People outside of politics are increasingly seeing the system as something that works against them not for them, as something that has been co opted by special interests. People on here make comments all the time that reinforce this perception and they are unaware of what they are doing. Every time someone suggests a “pragmatic” course for the ALP they are feeding this perception.

    This is so wise, Jules. I admire your insight. The current system is detached from the people’s needs and aspirations, especially those of the less powerful. Every time a political junkie harps on about how marginalized people just need to suck it up and suffer some more in the name of pragmatism or because that’s the way it’s always been done, that toxic dynamic is reinforced, legitimacy leaches away, and the system sinks deeper into the mire.

  14. Michael Kroger says the Mediscare campaign bite hardest in the ‘less well educated electorates’.

    So the Murdoch Press failed in their part of the campaign?

  15. The history Maori representation in the NZ Parliament is not all fairness. When Maori representation was introduced it was only 4 seats, even though the Maori population of New Zealand was significantly larger as a proportion of the population that 4 seats was as a proportion of the Parliament and this caused significant under representation of the Maori in Parliament. This was changed only in 1975, when the Labour Government allowed all Maori to choose between general enrolment and separate enrolment and removed the cap. A large proportion of the Maori chose general enrolment and so the number of Maori seats did not go up and then Labour lost in 1975 and Muldoon`s government reimposed the cap of 4, which was not re-scrapped (I believe) until the introduction of MMP in 1996 (since which the number of Maori seats has risen to 7).

  18. daretotread

    “It was also quite fashionable to marry Maori “royalty.” .
    Yes, ‘fraternisation ‘ was very popular from the early days . Family ties always helps 🙂

  19. Nicholas

    Her mistake was in promising reform in the first place.

    BFS. Julia Gillard tried her utmost to get the pokies reform up and running. Wilkie did nothing. Sat on his bloody arse, and did nothing. He expected the govt. to do the work for him.

    So, put the blame where it actually lies, with Wilkie. He wouldn’t compromise.

    Or show me where he put in the hard yards. You can’t, because he did nothing; so when a seemingly easy way to kill two bids with one stone i.e. instal Slipper as Speaker, and forget Wilkie’s impossible demands, in order to get order in the lower house, I would have done the same.

    Wilkie became irrelevant from that point on.

    He’s still irrelevant.

    He’s achieved nothing. Apart from holding his seat. And good for him.

    Some day the Taswegians of Denison are going to call him to account.

  20. https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/07/05/state-confusion-day-three/comment-page-36/#comment-2443383

    There are no absent, declaration pre-poll (out of electorate) or provisional votes in yet. The Greens were looking a bit like they were out of the count in Prahran in 2014, yet they won that. We shall have to wait for the full distribution of preferences. It would help if the AEC were conducting a 3CP count to show who was ahead in the race for the top 2, but that would probably require legislative change.

  22. Lenore Taylor‏ @lenoretaylor
    Malcolm Turnbull meets crossbenchers as Coalition pulls ahead in key seats

    This will be fun.

  23. Further postal votes were counted for Cowan this evening. After these votes are added to the count, the margin between Aly and Simpkins will be just over 700 votes in favour of Ali. There are a lot of absent votes to come in, but these are expected slightly favour Labor. On the trends shown at the last election, absent votes should widen the margin between Aly and Simpkins by at least 360. There will be about 1,600 more postals to count. Simpkins would need to poll around 1070 more of these than Aly in order to break even, or a split of 1335/265 (83%/17% split). So far he has received just under 54% of the postals counted.

    Aly will win. She will win quite comfortably in the end, by a clear 1,000 votes or so.

  24. Tony Windsor
    20m
    Tony Windsor‏ @TonyHWindsor
    Chilcot Report ….what will John Howard the man of steel have to say about going to war without consulting parliament

  25. Tom the first and best

    It was not perfect of course but the original thinking was good. They set it up because they thought Maori must be guaranteed representation in parliament as eventually they would be outnumbered in electorates and so may not gain representation.

  28. daretotread @ #1639 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 6:54 pm

    Question for Briefley and Bemused and othersd involved in campaigning(serious not attacking)
    You two have both been personing the phones for one on one voter contact. How effective do you rate it NOW compared with more traditional campaigns?
    It seems to me that in Qld we relied on it and it has not delivered.Seems much the same in WA and Victoria.
    NSW and Tas have been ALP star performers. Did they use traditional methods (leaflets, street stalls, posters) or more modern phone and social media (or both)?

    Actually hard to take seriously.

    If you think anything beats one on one contact, preferably face to face, then I’ve got news for you.

    Our candidate with others in support did extensive door-knocking and personally knocked on thousands of doors.

    In addition, volunteers made many thousands of phone calls and spoke directly to voters, discussing the issues of concern to them and putting Labor’s point of view.

    So what is your ‘more traditional campaign’? Waving at cars?

    We also did lots of shopping centre campaigning and handing out leaflets at railway stations, schools and other places. And of course we had the corflutes and posters.

    But nothing beats the one-on-one.

  29. Ben Eltham‏ @beneltham
    Interesting (but not surprising) that the Australian govt has done absolutely nothing to inquire about its role in the Iraq War

  30. Bemused
    Please just TRY not to be antagonistic.
    Here in Brisbane, limited money meant that choices were made for phoning rather than leaflets or mailouts. There were not many street stalls and posters and core flutes were in short supply. This meant that there was generally low visibility. The WAS quite a bit of door knocking but not the sort of mass door knocking we saw in the Kate Jones campaign.

    My question I guess is “Do you need BOTH person to person contact AND high visibility”.

  31. C’mon Anne Aly! What a formidable National Security cohort Labor will have if she wins. Dr Mike Kelly, Dr Peter Khalil and Dr Anne Aly!

    And the Liberals have…..?

  32. DTT

    In the end, I think your heart wasn’t in it.

    You probably needed to be in Vic, or any other southern state to get the “vibe” that we weren’t buying Turnbull’s rubbish.

    The problem is, you were.

  35. In the areas where we were able to focus enough effort we got a great result. It enabled us to reach voters in must-win parts of the seat. Most likely, it made the crucial difference.

    But apart from the immediate result, there are many other benefits to be derived from this kind of work. Most importantly, it provides an unequaled opportunity to learn from voters. Voters are not only endlessly interesting, they are also the very reason for our activities. Learning from voters is immensely rewarding. My own politics has come a long way in a short time as a result of taking on this kind of campaigning. I would recommend it to anyone interested in democratic expression…to anyone who wishes to learn how to contribute to the system.

  36. Corbyn suggests the Commons should take action against Tony Blair for misleading it in the run-up to the war. That seems to be a reference to the tentative SNP plans to try to impeach Blair over this.

    John Howard’s turn will come

  41. Briefly,
    It is important that the momentum you describe continues. There is a risk of complacency setting in. The hard work for the next election must begin in the next few weeks.

  44. daretotread @ #1759 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 9:49 pm

    Tom
    Much as I am no fan of Danby it looks as if the greens have fallen out of the race in Melbourne Ports. Mind you I suspect it will be a Liberal win there, by a very narrow margin.

    How?
    Labor is preferencing Greens, Greens are preferencing Labor.
    Forget about Danby’s theatrics.

  45. nicholas @ #1763 Wednesday, July 6, 2016 at 9:54 pm

    the thing about “both parties being the same” doesn’t apply to policy. Its how people see the institution of politics itself. People on both sides of politics are dedicated to the system and how its ongoing functioning. People outside of politics are increasingly seeing the system as something that works against them not for them, as something that has been co opted by special interests. People on here make comments all the time that reinforce this perception and they are unaware of what they are doing. Every time someone suggests a “pragmatic” course for the ALP they are feeding this perception.

    This is so wise, Jules. I admire your insight. The current system is detached from the people’s needs and aspirations, especially those of the less powerful. Every time a political junkie harps on about how marginalized people just need to suck it up and suffer some more in the name of pragmatism or because that’s the way it’s always been done, that toxic dynamic is reinforced, legitimacy leaches away, and the system sinks deeper into the mire.

    This dialogue could have been lifted from a Pop-Right blog somewhere….

  48. Guytaur@1705,

    confessions

    If not for the media dominance Labor would have won easily. They certainly deserved to. I voted for Labor not just so I could vote for outstanding candidate Linda Burney.

    It was also because the policies Labor went with were without doubt the best of the two parties by a country mile.

    I still would like Labor to go further towards the Greens positions on some issues but I know they can’t while the media portrays the right as the centre instead of the right

    Thanks for voting for Linda in Barton.

    Also, I think my position on the political spectrum is similar to yours.

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