Federal election live thread

Here is a thread for you to discuss events as they unfold. I’ll be providing commentary this evening on ABC Radio, together with Fran Kelly, Marius Benson and Sandy Aloisi, together with Senator Scott Ryan in the blue corner and Jenny McAllister in the red.

Usual story with exit polling: we’ve got Galaxy saying it’s 50-50 in selected marginal seats, but without knowing what those seats are, it’s very hard to say what that means.

UPDATE: Bug in comments relates what we need to know from Galaxy: 5.4% swing in SA, 3.9% swing in WA, 3.4% swing in Queensland, 3.2% in New South Wales, 3% in Tasmania, 2.9% in Victoria. And there’s a ReachTEL poll for Seven showing 51-49.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,912 comments on “Federal election live thread”

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  1. If those 70% NXT prefs to Labor translates through, that 9% Other will break better than the 50/50 the models have

  2. Sprocket
    “Exit poll says 70% of NXT preferences flowing to Labor”
    That’s great news for Labor. I thought it would be 60% tops (although I don’t trust exit polls, esp with such a large pre-poll.

  3. Fair enough, Guytaur. I did see that earlier comment about lack of staff training, however, it could have a large effect.

  4. OH and I had a great time at Edgewater Heights PS today. Totally different to 33 years in Paterson/Lyne. No Nats/Libs in sight and no fighting over fence space.
    It was exciting to have people actually wait in a line to collect our HTVs. There was a big crowd from mid morning til 1ish. It took ages to vote and I was surprised at how few AEC staff there were. There were no more than we’d been used to in the small rural village we left.
    Only 1 Green, 1 Christian Democrat and 1 Independent handing out so Labor was well represented. One of the campaign team turned up as we were leaving and seemed very upbeat for Pat Conroy in Shortland (I think) and Fitzgibbon won’t have any problems of course.
    The young ones were taking Green leaflets and ours but lots of tradies took neither.
    Biggest excitement for my skinny OH was 1.5 sausage sangers which were never on hand for us on any election day.

  5. 80-86 seats seems a bit generous to LNP but it might end up being right. I still think 74-79 range for LNP. My prediction was 76-65-9

  6. Windsor’s post election function has a sign up saying, ‘No Newscorp Reporters welcome’.

    Sales asked him how come – Windsor said they are just not welcome

  7. AEC Verified account

    A reminder that polling places close at 6pm local time today. If you are in the line at 6pm don’t leave – you’ll be able to vote. #ausvotes

  8. I don’t think I can watch ABC coverage. Last home I saw Uhluman im full flight was the night Turnbull challenged and he was in full flight declaring his love for Abbott.

    May run it on the iPad with sound off and keep and eye on figures., also keep an on news radio and the Tour de France …

    Busy night

    In meantime Swans v Dogs is a good game …

  9. Hindmarsh is a bit unique in SA as it is the only real battle between Liberal and Labor so its NXT preference flow maybe atypical of the rest of the state. 70% statewide for Labor sounds great because NXT seem to be taking more votes from Liberals. However most of the seats that matter will see NXT preferences not distributed because they will be NXT – Liberal or perhaps NXT – Labor battles. So the real issue will be how much the Labor preferences flow to NXT not the other way round.
    Boothby is the real question mark seat where Labor or NXT might finish second but Liberals vote looks like it might just hold up enough for them to hold the seat. Even if Labor finishes second in Barker or Grey I expect the Liberals to hold the seat easily.

  10. Patrick, the thing with giving people like Crabb, and vanOnselen, treat it so much like a game it takes gravitas away from the whole process.

    They are the loudest complainers when there’s a scare campaign, for instance, yet they ask the silly questions and create such an atmosphere that scare campaigns are the only thing that’ll cut through.

    You have to give it to Shorten and ALP, for the most part they HAVE treated Aussies like adults with their policy making and honesty in terms of budget surpluses. And they have done that despite fools of journos who only want to ask “will you be challenged when you lose?”

  11. ABC NewsRadio is unfortunately continuing their long, beloved transition of having online streaming that fails on election night. Shame, because I’d much rather listen to that panel than the TV one.

  12. Well my last minute predictions, mostly on the basis of marginal seat betting markets:

    LNP: 82
    ALP: 61
    NXT: 2
    GRN: 1
    IND: 4

  13. Jen, I agree. And crap like kitchen cabinet is basically free advertising where, for example, the people who run our offshore concentration camps are given free air time to humanise then over a nice chianti while Crabb fawns over them.

  14. If the ABC didn’t have Antony Green I’d be watching one of the commercials. Scott motor mouth Morrison is on the ABC panel. This is going to be a tough night.

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