Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

The final Ipsos and Galaxy polls of the campaign record little or no change, with both suggesting the election is still up for grabs.

The final Ipsos poll for Fairfax has the two parties back at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 a fortnight ago, although Labor maintains its 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 13% for the Greens (down one). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 49% and down one on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 50%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-34 to 49-35. The poll of 1377 respondents was conducted Monday to Wednesday.

The News Corporation tabloids have a Galaxy poll of 1768 respondents which give the Coalition a lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 in a similar poll a week ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Today’s Advertiser has two seat polls from Galaxy Research, which find Kate Ellis leading Liberal challenger 53-47 in Adelaide, and Mark Butler reported as leading 76-33 in Port Adelaide (although this really should add up to 100), with the Nick Xenophon Team presumably running third in both cases since the report doesn’t say otherwise. The samples on the polls are a little over 500.

Three polls have emerged from Campaign for Australian Aid, conducted last Thursday to Saturday by Community Engagement – a national one, and seat polls from Sturt and Higgins. The Higgins poll is particularly interesting in that it suggests Kelly O’Dwyer faces a very serious threat from the Greens. Greens candidate Jason Ball leads Labor’s Carl Katter by 26% to 21%, and O’Dwyer’s 44% is low enough that it would be touch and go for her after preferences. The Sturt poll has the Nick Xenophon Team clearing the first hurdle by outpolling Labor 21% to 18%, but with Christopher Pyne’s primary vote of 48% being high enough to keep him safe. The national poll of 861 respondents has primary vote results of Coalition 40%, Labor 31% and Greens 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,153 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Kevin,

    It’s the vibe, mate. Everyone knows it. Put down your glasses, 51-49 means it’s a landslide for Malnificent.

    I really hope the voters give the commentariat a great big shitburger to eat tomorrow.

  2. 51 49 to LNP by Reachtel

    How did they compute preferences? If they’re still using the ‘based on the 2013 election’ method, I call 51-49 to LNP as still being firmly in hung Parliament territory.

  3. Nicholas –

    We need to fix our broken system to ensure that seats are allocated according to proportion of primary votes.

    I don’t disagree with the sentiment, and I’ve posted in support of bringing in MMP for years now, but in the context of the conversation that was underway – what may happen in hung parliament situations at this election this is all irrelevant. We have the system we have now, talking about what we’d like to happen under some other system is just random daydreaming.

  4. happy with reachtel if newspoll holds up we’re well in this – still think you 70% young’ens is significant

  5. The fact that Channel 7 is talkimg up Liberal chances in Parramatta in Greenway tells me they’re more interested in talking up Turnbull.

  6. Bob Carr said and was not contradicted by Hewson or Milne on the Drum that most seats were 50/50 and no one knew which way they were going to fall.

  7. According to reachtel LNP were 41.3 at last election, but Labor were at 33.4, so it depends on the preferences.

  8. phoenixgreen @ #1087 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 6:03 pm

    Again, let’s not downplay nasty behaviour just because it’s your lot. Nasty behaviour on all sides should be shouted the hell down.
    I agree with the approach by Greens and Labor candidates in Wills, encouraging all volunteers to stop the thuggery. https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/the-battle-for-the-seat-of-wills-is-getting-nasty?utm_term=.qwR1yEzaO#.ypQRy8XB5

    The ALP do not encourage thuggery and we have none in my electorate.
    But OTOH, the Greens are pretty subdued here, as are the Libs.

  9. Wow, near 6 point movement in PPM. Turnbull from 58.4 down to 52.9 in 1 week.

    Wheels falling off the Lying Waffle

  10. 51/49. The perfect result for someone who can’t stand Turnbull. Or Shorten. What’s a conservative to do?

  11. GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: LNP 42.8 (+0.5) ALP 34.6 (+0.9) GRN 10.7 (+0.2) #ausvotes

  12. Two-party-preferred vote
    Australian Labor Party 6,216,445 50.12 −2.58 72 −11
    Liberal/National Coalition 6,185,918 49.88 +2.58

  13. Reachtel – no change. So Essential herding itself. Tut tut.

    Am i reading Reachtel right? Is the Coalition primary down again this week (0.4)?

    WB analysis will be interesting.

  14. The polls don’t matter according to Fran and Alison on the LNP Brekky Show this morning. The important number is the one from essential on who you think will win, and as 60+ % expect the LNP will win, it’s going to be a rout.

  15. pegasus @ #1094 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 6:04 pm

    Bit tetchy aren’t we. Things not going well for you in Bruce (ALP margin 1.8%)?

    On the other hand, the loss of Alan Griffin’s personal vote will likely weaken Labor’s position, and Liberal candidate Helen Kroger is a strong opponent. Considering these factors, it would not be a surprise if Bruce bucked the trend and went Liberal.


    Kroger is the invisible candidate and we have a very strong candidate.
    I have no reason to be tetchy and indeed am not.
    All indications are good.

  16. So, have I got it right? Two later polls to the LNP at 51-49, one somewhere between 50-51 and the fourth at 50-50 – with one more to come? And with this “late surge” it is all over? Has ReachTel moved at all? Gee, I thought all of these were in the famous “Margin Of Error” often touted in any other poll. It seems 0.5% of a point is enough to be certain. Mind you, some of the commentators are couching it as “an uphill battle for Labor” to be on the safe side. And Riley is conceding up to 12 seats for Labor as well? It would be more cheerful if the figures were the other way round but I suspect the MSM would couch this as “LNP making up ground at the last minute” or “Late swing back………blah, blah…….” What was the “ripper” comment all about? In reality the polls have barely moved for 8 weeks – a tweak, perhaps back to the LNP. In any event, this must mean 52-48 from Newspoll to seal the issue beyond doubt.

  17. ‘Wheels falling off the Lying Waffle’

    The more people see of him the more they dislike his smug demeanor and circumlocution.

    Or to put it another way, people have got the shits with the waffling liar.

  18. Actual changes from previous poll:

    – Both parties up slightly on primaries (ALP +0.9, Lib/Nats +0.5)
    – Shorten +5.5 on PPM, Turnbull down 5.5
    – Turnbull down 5.9 on netsat, Shorten is +3.3

    So I think not all doom and gloom. It looks like Labor’s got the momentum back going to the polls. Or at least, Shorten does. A shame that the prefs were respondent allocated, however.

  19. Oakes on 9 says that Shorten believes ALP still in race based on daily ALP tracking polls in marginals showing 4% swing to ALP.

  20. Very encouraging ReachTel for both Labor and Greens supporters. Leadership figures are also very interesting.

  21. GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Federal Primary Votes: LNP 42.8 (+0.5) ALP 34.6 (+0.9) GRN 10.7 (+0.2) #ausvotes

    As far as poll movements go, that’s actually pretty good for the ALP – +1.1 to the good guys, compared with +0.5 to the baddies. Others have obviously come off a bit, and the ALP didn’t show any headline improvement due to rounding, presumably.

  22. but in the context of the conversation that was underway – what may happen in hung parliament situations at this election this is all irrelevant.

    In the context of this election I think it’s relevant and apt to hope for a House in which neither Labor nor the Coalition has 76 seats. This will bring help bring about changes to norms and understandings about what legitimate government looks like. Another illegitimate majority government will not address the chronic problems that ail our political system.

  23. You gotta love the commentary:

    51/49 t coalition = it’s done and dusted

    seat of Chisolm 51/49 to ALP = tight

  24. This election campaign seems to have been going on forever. In a sense, it started on March 21, the day that Malcolm announced that Parliament would be recalled on April 18 and the Budget would be brought forward a week to May 3. That makes a total of 103 days. Back then it was still Summer. Sydney had just emerged from a late season heatwave, with a warm Autumn to follow.

    We’re now in a cold spell in Winter. I was actually hoping the anomalous warmth would reassert itself now to put people in mind of climate change. It could do so in a couple of weeks, but for now the past week or so in Sydney has been cold enough for the usual suspects to write columns saying Climate Change had been ‘disproved’.

    Anyway, my final prediction 78-7-65 to the Coalition, but as Queensland, the UK election and Brexit show, it ain’t over till it’s over.

  25. What a ‘ripper’, same as last 2 reachtels.
    Age breakdowns for who they think will win, but not who they will vote for…

  26. Don’t think I’ll sleep much tonight. Hoping for a tight run race tomorrow with Labor winning a workable majority. Longish odds I know, but hope springs eternal.

  27. This site is acting weird (again) and has had varying performance issues since the recent change… now beginning to wonder if it’s up to the challenge of tomorrow night. Trust ‘The Pub’ is standing by if the unthinkable happens.

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