Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

The final Ipsos and Galaxy polls of the campaign record little or no change, with both suggesting the election is still up for grabs.

The final Ipsos poll for Fairfax has the two parties back at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 a fortnight ago, although Labor maintains its 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences. The primary votes are 40% for the Coalition (up one), 33% for Labor (steady) and 13% for the Greens (down one). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up two on approval to 49% and down one on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 50%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-34 to 49-35. The poll of 1377 respondents was conducted Monday to Wednesday.

The News Corporation tabloids have a Galaxy poll of 1768 respondents which give the Coalition a lead of 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 in a similar poll a week ago. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one).

Today’s Advertiser has two seat polls from Galaxy Research, which find Kate Ellis leading Liberal challenger 53-47 in Adelaide, and Mark Butler reported as leading 76-33 in Port Adelaide (although this really should add up to 100), with the Nick Xenophon Team presumably running third in both cases since the report doesn’t say otherwise. The samples on the polls are a little over 500.

Three polls have emerged from Campaign for Australian Aid, conducted last Thursday to Saturday by Community Engagement – a national one, and seat polls from Sturt and Higgins. The Higgins poll is particularly interesting in that it suggests Kelly O’Dwyer faces a very serious threat from the Greens. Greens candidate Jason Ball leads Labor’s Carl Katter by 26% to 21%, and O’Dwyer’s 44% is low enough that it would be touch and go for her after preferences. The Sturt poll has the Nick Xenophon Team clearing the first hurdle by outpolling Labor 21% to 18%, but with Christopher Pyne’s primary vote of 48% being high enough to keep him safe. The national poll of 861 respondents has primary vote results of Coalition 40%, Labor 31% and Greens 11%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,153 thoughts on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 50-50; Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. Adrian – I’ll be so glad when this is all over.
    Adrian, repeat after me ‘I am a week old lettuce leaf, I am a week old lettuce leaf, be the lettuce leaf’.
    Failing that – Margaritas, Sangria, Whiskey…. any order.

    Dont touch the Gin.

  4. TASMANIA
    Where were all the Tasmanian Liberal Senators, MPs and candidates today? Out on the hustings, at pre poll stations, trawling votes in shopping Centre’s across the 5 electorates perhaps ? No way.. They decided to gather everyone together for a group hug up north at a private function to celebrate another ‘successful campaign’, refusing to do any more interviews or doorstops. That sheer arrogance and contempt for the punters is going to turn the next Liberal group hug into a wake with three empty seats

    Bass, Braddon and Lyons MPs

    and so it bloody should.

  6. sir mad cyril @ #1038 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 5:46 pm

    Love the day before an election. I was asked by two people at work who they should vote for, and they weren’t joking, they really wanted to know who to vote for. I told em they should vote for Derryn Hinch. lol
    Spoke to at least five people who said “it doesn’t matter who I vote for, they’re all the same”. A couple of people had variations on that like “they all screw us no matter which party they belong to” or “they’re all a pack of dickheads”. One bloke said he’s going to draw a “rocket ship” on the ballot paper. Democracy at work. lol

    None of that raises a laugh from me.

  7. I think we should have learned not to trust tweets from the conservative media regarding polls – ‘ripper’ could mean anything (including ‘ripper’). Probably a red herring to get people to view.

  9. C@Tmomma – I just can’t help but wonder if the small ‘l’ liberal anger with Turnbull that seems to be happening in Wentworth is also happening Higgins. Demographically they are very similar seats.

  15. phoenixgreen @ #1039 Friday, July 1, 2016 at 5:46 pm

    @C@Tmomma
    I don’t think that argument has ever been effective on anyone except Labor purists with an authoritarian streak. You don’t convince people to support Labor by berating them about how worthless their vote is.
    Interestingly, it’s the exact opposite approach to the Greens slogan: “Your vote is powerful”.

    All one of you in the House of Representatives. : )

  17. I think that’s something that a lot of my fellow Laborites might not understand. Part of the reason why the Greens and Independents do well in areas like Manly, North Sydney, that part of Melbourne – they might not want to vote Liberal, but they sure as hell aren’t voting Labor.

  20. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-01/video-show-sexist-antigreens-graffiti-inside-liberal-bus/7560684

    ACT Greens Senate candidate Christina Hobbs has called on Liberal senator Zed Seselja to “seriously assess” his position after video emerged showing defaced Greens flyers inside his campaign bus.

    One of the signs is captioned “I’ll give your refugee a loving home”, while the other shows Ms Hobbs saying “I need a light railing”.

    Ms Hobbs labelled the graffiti, which appeared to be taped to the dashboard, “violently sexist”.

    “

    It was

    a picture of me, essentially saying ‘I want a railing’, which is a term talking about violent sex, also associated with rape, so it’s quite disturbing actually,” she said.

  22. Jackol –

    you didn’t read the rest of my post, did you?

    No, I saw, just didn’t feel it relevant to the underlying theory. Or underlying pie-in-the-sky nonsense, if you prefer. The fact that the current/historical machinations of government make it practically impossible for its current incarnation to operate in a broad-tent, will-of-the-people kind of way just underscores the point that the current incarnation is broken and should be repaired, in my mind.

    So yes, I suppose I’d rather daydream about a less dysfunctional system than try to speculate about what silly thing the current system is going to make everybody do next. Like vote again in August/September.

  23. Did he give up already?

    Guardian Australia
    5m
    Guardian Australia‏ @GuardianAus
    Malcolm Turnbull: ‘I’m honoured and privileged to be prime minister of Australia’ – video

  26. George C apparently very hot under the collar in a Mackay shopping centre this afternoon. Someone asked him about Adani, and he snapped.

  28. Well its 6 so not much more time for guessing Reachtel results

    I’ll go 50-50 too. You know it makes sense….

  33. but within the framework of how politics has been working in Australia – including the media and the voting public itself – what does this mean for forming government at this election?

    Politics has not been working. That’s the point. The public feels utterly disconnected and disengaged because the system doesn’t work for them. A party that forms government by itself without getting more than 50% of the primary vote is illegitimate. We need to fix our broken system to ensure that seats are allocated according to proportion of primary votes. We need power-sharing arrangements that reflect the expressed will of the people.

  36. The biggest issue of this election is just how long Seven will make antsy Bludgers sit through their “news” program before revealing the Reachtel results.

  38. So that’s it? 51-49? FMD you’d think it was 54-46 the way people have been carrying on.

    Anyway, onwards and upwards to tomorrow.

  43. GhostWhoVotes‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    #ReachTEL Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (0) ALP 49 (0) #ausvotes

  44. Bemused,

    Bit tetchy aren’t we. Things not going well for you in Bruce (ALP margin 1.8%)?

    On the other hand, the loss of Alan Griffin’s personal vote will likely weaken Labor’s position, and Liberal candidate Helen Kroger is a strong opponent. Considering these factors, it would not be a surprise if Bruce bucked the trend and went Liberal.

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2016/bruce2016

  48. Coorey – Tories will do nothing so a hostile Senate is no problem –

    Why an unruly Senate may not matter any more

    This week, Malcolm Turnbull……failed to talk about the biggest policy proposal he will put to voters on Saturday.

    The 10-year plan to phase down the company tax rate for all businesses to 25 per cent, at a cost of $48 billion, was the centrepiece of the May 3 budget and of his election pitch to generate jobs and growth and supposedly firewall the economy from the ravages of Brexit and other global headwinds.

    …a company tax stoush with a Senate that promises to be every bit as unwieldy as its predecessor, may be the only real legislative problem a re-elected Turnbull government will face.

    And that’s why an unwieldy Senate with nine crossbenchers, possibly including the likes of Pauline Hanson, Derryn Hinch and Uncle Tom Cobley​, may not prove to be the major problem it was last time.

    This is due largely to the government’s spartan agenda.

    …..Other than that, there won’t be a great deal for the government to do for the remainder of the term.

    Turnbull has ruled out any other changes to industrial relations, even shelving the promised response to the Productivity Commission report that was supposed to provide a reform platform.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-why-an-unruly-senate-may-not-matter-any-more-20160630-gpv7ua#ixzz4D8qnhK5b

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