BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition

Daylight has finally opened between the two parties on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without quite freeing the Coalition from the risk of a hung parliament.

What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.

The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.

The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.

The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,080 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition”

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  1. confessions

    NZ is Rupe free isn’t it?

    On one of those rare occasions Rupes raised the white flag and ran . So yes, Rupes free. Joy.

  2. The only acceptable photo’s with Pyne would be one of those hunter’s pics crouching beside the quarry with the rifle you used to take him down.

    (not that I advocate hunting down and shooting Liberals of course – just you shouldn’t allow yourself to be photographed with one unless you do 😉 )

  3. “Morgan basically hid away its penultimate (poll 51 – 49 Labor ) and is now effectively hiding this one. Respondent allocated seems good for labor. Draw your own conclusions.”

    Morgan gets hid away for good reason, it’s not reliable.

  4. William,

    What is your weighting for Ipsos; would it have greater influence on Bludgertrack than this week’s Essential?

    Would there be an appreciable shift if there is movement in Reachtel/newspoll?

  5. How rude is that overpaid ABC abuser.

    it’s so terrible that Shorten is not giving Leigh sell-out the answers she wants that she cannot cope.

    She is just horrible. She insists its overreach despite any answer. She is no longer an interviewer but simply a spokesperson for her boyfriend malcolm.

  6. Darn – it’s TODAY. The full poll is just not online yet, but the 50-50 is out because a couple of articles have gone online early that mention the poll in passing.

  7. Started off alright, but developed into another Leigh Sales hectoring train wreck.

    SALES: “Just answer the question!”
    SHORTEN: “Well, I’ve…”
    SALES: Sorry we don’t have time to listen to your answer.

  8. BH

    I only caught a snippet of Michael Kroger as I was on way out, but he appeared rather subdued and not as smug as usual

  9. tassiedevil: #abc730 When @leighsales talks to Shorten it’s about Labor’s policies & when she talks to Turnbull it’s about Labor’s policies. #ausvotes

  10. God, you morons. If you paid any attention to what the psephologists here actually wrote, you would have seen that Morgan decided to stop their federal polls in favour of more attention-grabbing seat polls like their NXT- and Greens-related ones. I’m pretty sure even William himself said it in one of his posts.

  11. This prophesy from the AFR proudly announcing what it urged punters to do has come to fruition….. well it going to…we believe…on Saturday.

    “Malcolm Turnbull is on the verge of being endorsed by the Australian people by sticking to a single message on the economy, growth, and jobs. Bill Shorten has fought a dogged campaign…. But analysis of the polls, betting odds and Australian history suggests that enough voters in enough sandbagged marginal seats will return Mr Turnbull to power tomorrow. That’s what The Australian Financial Review urged voters to do on Thursday and what voters overwhelmingly expect will happen.”
    http://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/the-pms-message-has-resonated-20160630-gpv76j#ixzz4D3S1iqfj .


    Well I guess if the born-to-rule people who read the FIN have responded to the FIN’s urgent plea to remember your private school tie the election must be over !! Oh, wait a minute, does anyone else but landed gentry get to vote in Australia ? They do ? Well that’s no good, what it this, a frikkin democracy or something as vile !

  12. Leigh’s essential problem is that SHE’S NOT VERY BRIGHT and has to interview people smarter than herself. So she ends up getting angry.

  13. She treats Shorten like he’s a naughty schoolboy.

    Bill has the grace to put up with it, and try to get an answer over the screeching and barracking.

    Fair dinkum, Sales is a hope less interviewer. Her annoyance with anyone except her dinner mate, Malcolm, is palpable.

  14. TPOF
    Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 7:53 pm
    I HATE LEIGH SALES. THE MOST UNPROFESSIONAL INTERVIEW SHE HAS EVER DONE.

    —-her prejudice and ignorance were lips deep

  15. Fuck me dead!!! what is Leigh Sales problem with Bill Shorten??!!!???!!!
    That wasn’t an interview, just be laughing and smiling she doesn’t somehow make it justifiable to interrupt practically every sentence Bill shorten utters!!
    My god, I have come to no longer believe in public funding of the ABC news and current affairs programming, this is ridiculous!

  16. I’ve often felt like throwing something at some freaking liar of a politician. This is the first time I can remember wanting to throw something at a supposedly disinterested interviewer because she could not hide her biases and prejudices.

    Just who the hell does she think she is to decide it was overreach and to insist it was to Bill Shorten’s face despite him responding to the claim. She showed her bias. Whether she is paid by the Liberals there is no doubt that she is still in love with Malcolm and will do anything to further his interests.

  17. In his first interview with Sales after becoming PM, shorten should apologise for winning the election.

    He’ll have to apologise for interrupting her interruptions in order to apologise first.

  18. Bill did well, his newish , more moderate tone of voice drove Sales insane no doubt.
    (Her odd eye make up was a distraction – who does her make up, Gene Simmons?)
    Flat batted her back calmly and deftly circumnavigated the gotchas and interruptions.
    Good interview for Shorten, you could tell she was grinding her teeth with his constant references to “Mr Turnbull” and his policies with his answers; she hated it.

  19. Leigh’s essential problem is that SHE’S NOT VERY BRIGHT…

    I think you may have a point there. She always sounded like a bogan who’d lucked-in on a good gig. Superficial good looks in the early days, young, presentable… but she has morphed into the classic Big-Hair Matron of the airwabes, full of her own importance and too dumb to disguise it.

  20. [Darn
    Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 7:49 pm
    I’m confused. Has there been an Ipsos poll today? Or is that 50-50 from a previous Ipsos?]

    Ghost Who Votes tweeted 50-50 tonight but has not yet tweeted info on primaries etc.

  21. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/fairfaxipsos-poll-dead-heat-on-election-eve–coalition-faces-shock-loss-20160630-gpvmom.html

    Fewer than one in five voters think Bill Shorten will win the election, yet around half intend to give his party either their first or second preference, according to the final Fairfax-Ipsos poll on the eve of the election.

    The contradiction points to a looming dead heat that has lifted the potential for Saturday’s election to deliver either a shock Labor win, a narrow Coalition victory, or a hung Parliament with no side commanding a majority in the House of Representatives.

    A massive 27 per cent of voters remain intent on supporting Greens and other crossbench parties and independents, as support for the major parties threatens to erode further.
    Advertisement

    The tightness of the contest has the parties scrounging for every last vote especially in key marginal seats and prompted Malcolm Turnbull to use his final televised pre-election speech to the National Press Club to again plead with electors not to risk independents or a Labor protest vote, declaring: “Australians won’t want to end up next week with a result they didn’t see coming.”

    The final Fairfax-Ipsos poll of the 2016 election shows that with most Australians preparing to cast their votes Labor and the Coalition are locked in a 50-50 embrace based on second and subsequent preference flows recorded in the 2013 poll when Labor’s electoral support had tumbled.

    But when respondents were asked specifically which party would receive their second preference on Saturday, Labor edged into the lead at 51-49 – an identical outcome to that returned in the last two fortnightly Fairfax-Ipsos polls.

    That represents a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor since 2013 and if registered uniformly across the country on election day, would be enough to safely install a Shorten Labor government.

    The poll challenges a growing confidence observed on the government side over the past week and came as Bill Shorten continued to insist he could still win as he promised Australians that if they voted Labor, he wouldn’t let them down.

  22. Perhaps this is all part of the Libs grand plan to defund the ABC? A directive came out to be as partisan as possible specifically to convince the public that they should not waste taxpayer funds on the national broadcaster.

    Taxpayers: “Oh please stop wasting money on the ABC, they’ve proven they don’t deserve it?”
    Government: “Oh OK. If that’s what the people really want.”

  23. Further on Ipsos: Kenny

    But when respondents were asked specifically which party would receive their second preference on Saturday, Labor edged into the lead at 51-49 – an identical outcome to that returned in the last two fortnightly Fairfax-Ipsos polls.

  24. Bluey PENULTIMATE Bulletin: No 95
    LEADERSHIT!
    Bluey reckons that the MSM are as predictable as one of Pavlov’s dogs. The drool is excruciating. Bluey reckons that we have learned a lot about leadership this election.
    Turnbull simply does not have leadership. He is a one person team perched on top of a shaky shambles.
    Joyce has leadership if you reckon that a pubcrawl plus logorrhoea plus some pork farming plus shunting human beings from one end of Australia to another equals leadership.
    Di Natale has been effective in leading the Greens down a grubby path indeed.
    Shorten has real leadership in spades
    One of the things that has happened is that Labor supporters have had a good look at Shorten. Bluey’s view is that, if he loses the election, he should resign and then stand again. This time around he will trounce Albo in the popular vote and in the Caucus vote.

    Assuming he wins, Turnbull will be bogged down in the Senate. He will be beset by absolute hatred from the Monkey Pod Gang. His paymasters are already raising expectations that he will do more on cutting tax for the Big End of Town. He will be suffering from severe internal cognitive dissonance. And, as the superior economic management turns to shit, and as more and more punters discover their personal RegrettaBull moments over the next Coalition government is going to be an even bigger shambles than the last Coalition government.

    SCOTXIT NIXED FOR FEAR OF CATALUNYAXIT
    Spain, mindful of its centrifugal regional situation vis-à-vis the Basques and the Catalunyans has told Scotland to forget about joining the EU absent England.

    THE FUTURE MEETS THE PAST
    Bluey notes that Toffler is now a past tense person. Who could have foreseen that?
    BOB BROWN IN A DARK MOOD
    Bob reckons that the environment is a non starter in this election and he blames meeja. Bluey reckons OF COURSE the environment is a non starter! The Liberals and the Nationals hate the environment so they are going to say nothing. Labor can gets wedged on the environment by the Greens so what is the point for Labor to lift the environment.
    A classic example is global warming. Labor sticks its neck out on global warming objectives and the Greens say two things: Labor and Liberal are Coles and Woolworth and Labor intends to do nothing about global warming. At the same time the Liberals are busy chopping at Labor from the other side.
    The Greens are going nowhere but the green Greens have lost the battle with the Trots and the Opportunists. And the Red Greens are not really interested in the environment except as a series of issues around which to defeat the scourge of capitalism.
    And finally, Dirty Dealer Di Natale is playing grubby politics.
    Bluey reckons that it is the Earthians that are screwing with the environment, that it is not the meeja, and that the Greens have only themselves to blame.
    PREPOLL
    Over 2.5 million. Bluey is not sure what this means.

    POLLING
    Bluey reckons not good. Not great for Turnbull, either. But not good for Shorten.

    Cumulative Tally: Cumulative tally: Labor 58.5 Coalition 61.5

  25. I wouldn’t worry too much about light weight Leigh. Nothing she says is going to have any effect on the outcome of this election.

    I do agree though that she is certainly no red Kerry. Not even a shadow of him. He was someone you could truly respect.

  26. [Darn
    Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 7:49 pm
    I’m confused. Has there been an Ipsos poll today? Or is that 50-50 from a previous Ipsos?]

    One just released but Ben Cubby basically dismissed it as unreliable which is strange, why post and highlight a pol and then dismiss its reliability in the same post?

  27. Morgan decided early during the election period to only do seat polling. I assume that Morgan will do a full national poll and put it out tomorrow.
    But William would know.

  28. [PoliticsFairfax: BREAKING: Dead heat on election eve as Coalition faces shock loss, last Fairfax-Ipsos poll of #ausvotes finds
    https://t.co/VkrnaBLv5J%5D

    A quick read of Kenny’s article says 50-50 is based on 2013 preferences, while respondent allocated preferences is Labor ahead 51-49.

    Kenny doesn’t give primaries but says a “massive” 27 % is Green and others.

  29. The chart on Kenny’s article show a move of 1% from the Greens to the Libs. So rounding and natural variation explains the change. In fact it explains every change since April 16. Every Ipsos in that time has been between 51-49 and 49-51. That is no change in the polling at all and anyone getting excited about the 1 point moves is kidding themselves.

    What Ipsos has shown is a slow steady move of about 2% from the Libs PV to others.

    If that 2% comes back to the Libs, then no probs for them. If however those prefs actually go better for Labor…

    Oh and I’m still calling bullshit on the consistent 33% PV for Labor.

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