BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition

Daylight has finally opened between the two parties on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without quite freeing the Coalition from the risk of a hung parliament.

What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.

The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.

The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.

The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,080 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition”

Comments Page 39 of 42
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  1. From Leroys post:

    Also, the Fairfax Ipsos poll was done between Monday and Wednesday, just before an apparent swing back to the government.

    So it was done this week, with last data collected yesterday, but it was done before an apparent swing back to the government, which by this logic only happened today. My god, I am in a wrong profession. If I was doing this kind of a shitty job myself I would be out of job eons ago.

  4. Re hung Parliaments: not just NZ. Same goes for most European countries, with their proportional representation (or MMP) systems. In fact, our ‘Liberal’ party rarely gets a majority in its own right and has to go into coalition wuth the Rural Socialists. We only ever get ‘single party’ Government from Labor.

    In any case, whoever is in Government has to wrangle their legislation through the Senate.

  7. Morgan basically hid away its penultimate (poll 51 – 49 Labor ) and is now effectively hiding this one. Respondent allocated seems good for labor. Draw your own conclusions.

  10. Have the CPG swung back to the Government? Again? They’re always doing that. I wonder what the IPSOS internals are!!!

  11. William did a good job on the Drum, although it was depressing to hear his views on the way Brexit could work in the Coalition’s favor. I am sure this is correct.
    Brexit, and its likely influence on Saturday’s election, reinforces my view that conservatives are completely unfit to govern in a rapidly changing world. They are responsible for increased inequality, the destruction of the ecosystem, and eventually massive social dislocation.

  13. Characters like Massola must be panicking right now as they try to write a story debunking Fairfax’s own Ipsos 50-50.

  14. A B
    Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 7:23 pm

    What apparent swing? I thought Brexit was the big vote-changer. Maybe they’re referring to that devasting SSM video of Bill from 2013 that nobody saw. Dynamite!
    —–

    Bollocks.

  15. ADRIAN – I never watch TV. But decided to have a chat with the OH. But the AFR is a very good example of the delusions of the Liberal elite (most of whom probably spend idle hours on SportsBet). I’m sure they definitely think they are going to romp home.

  16. After Mal failed completely to even come close to answering a question from a SBS journo at the NPC today, the SBS news featured a couple of minutes with Bill, was it revenge ?

  21. C@t:

    If there is a hung parliament I think it would be wise to sit back and let Turnbull deal with the fall out. After all, this laborious 8 week campaign, confected on the back of legislation the reason for which has not been mentioned once in those 8 weeks, and which has come after the Liberals rammed through electoral amendments to the Senate, is all of Turnbull’s own making.

  22. Polls this week..

    Essential: ALP 51 / Coal 49..
    IPSOS: ALP 50 / Coal 50..

    ABC & NewsLtd: ‘Coalition on track to win..’

    ..am I missing something?

  23. victoria
    Michael Kroger is hard to watch on Sky. He is easy to dislike. I hope his part in the handsofcfa campaign is exposed fully.

    IPSOS is a little heartening for prepolling Bludgers tomorrow. Go get ’em.

  27. With all the claims of labor being out of the race and the ‘exclusive poll’ from SMH, could there be a seat by seat poll fairfax is holding onto? – Maybe they got exclusive access to Morgan poll?

  28. citizen
    Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 7:29 pm

    Characters like Massola must be panicking right now as they try to write a story debunking Fairfax’s own Ipsos 50-50.
    —–

    Na, he is well trained at talking chitt without bothering with facts

  29. I don’t think that there would be any problem digging up videos of the current Prime Minister rubbishing Direct Inaction (“a figleaf for doing nothing”) or espousing positions very different from those he now has to support as figurehead of our major right wing political party.

  32. trog sorrenson @ #1911 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 7:28 pm

    William did a good job on the Drum, although it was depressing to hear his views on the way Brexit could work in the Coalition’s favor. I am sure this is correct.
    Brexit, and its likely influence on Saturday’s election, reinforces my view that conservatives are completely unfit to govern in a rapidly changing world. They are responsible for increased inequality, the destruction of the ecosystem, and eventually massive social dislocation.

    I dunno what William said about Brexit but I have yet to hear from a single voter who thinks it is even slightly relevant to them or will possibly influence their vote. I have certainly asked more than a few, just to to satisfy my curiosity. The Brexit stories are just ephemera as far as voters are concerned. Fewer than 1/500 voters will be thinking about this when they vote and when they do, it’s not at all sure just how their intention might alter. It may be that voters who would respond to T’s “stability” line are already Lib-positive voters. There are so few of them, it would be very hard to get a fix on their behaviour.

  35. My present run in with the media has deepened my contempt of the profession immeasurably.

    Apparently it’s perfectly fine to attribute comments to someone who didn’t make them, as long as they’ve said something similar somewhere else, and you’ve made an (unsuccessful) attempt to contact them.

    These guys wouldn’t know an ethic if it danced before them naked (assuming ethics indulge in such behaviour) and then they have the gall to judge politicians.

    With a couple of very obvious exceptions, most politicians I know outclass journalists in every respect.

  36. leroy lynch @ #1924 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 7:32 pm

    AFR editorial talking up the govt’s prospects, pointing out Labor need more than 3.5% (50-50) to win enough seats. True enough, but pretty goddamn close. It mentions the “others” figure though.
    http://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/the-pms-message-has-resonated-20160630-gpv76j
    “Fourteen per cent of voters in the Fairfax Ipsos poll chose “other”, even eclipsing the Greens.”

    14% for others….That’s quite possible in seats where there are strong “other ” candidates. But in all the many seats around the country where there will be no viable “other” campaigns, the results must surely be different.

    This election is almost unpickable….

  41. I’ll take 50-50 a day out. No late swing to LNP. Gives me hope for the punters making up their minds on the day in the booth.

    We can win this!

  42. I believe I read in one of William’s posts a week or two back that Morgan had reverted to seat polling only for the rest of the campaign

  43. BK:

    If my brother sent me a photo of himself with Pyne I’d disown him! Not that he would, he is vocally anti-Liberal.

  45. Sales has been fine in terms of her tone on this interview thus far. Not many interruptions up to now. Shorten doing well, but he does look a bit tired. Can’t say I blame him.

  48. With a couple of very obvious exceptions, most politicians I know outclass journalists in every respect.

    It’s a sheltered workshop. You shouldn’t be too hard on the poor disabled kiddies.

  49. Greg Jennet in his Inspector Gadget trench-coat solemnly declared it was slipping away from labor. Must be true if gadget says so.
    Shorten handling a more subdued Sales well so far. She’s biting her lip.

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