BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition

Daylight has finally opened between the two parties on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without quite freeing the Coalition from the risk of a hung parliament.

What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.

The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.

The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.

The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,080 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition”

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  1. Lahiru
    Almost impossible to see the Libs winning any seats from the ALP in Victoria though Bendigo has been mentioned and huge resources have been poured into Chisholm and presumably Bruce. Can’t see the Libs losing any either – the CFA mess will help them in both La Trobe and Corangamite. In Deakin, the ALP have been very low key – even lower than last time when they had very obviously given up.
    My in laws live in Corangamite – they are by no means Lib voters but they speak very highly of Sarah Henderson – very active and well liked on the ground.
    As for Chris Jermyn, every election throws up the archetypal dud candidate in a winnable seat – last time it was Jaymes Diaz and in 2007 it was Nicole Corned – cuts both ways.

  2. Huh.

    Bernard Keane just tweeted a document showing Shorten has been interrupted by Leigh Sales more than three times as frequently than Turnbull in their respective election period 7.30 interviews.

  3. BevanShields: !!!! Nine’s @lcalcutt airs footage of campaign director Tony Nutt falling asleep during Malcolm Turnbull’s speech today #ausvotes

  4. Is Rummel about??

    The CFA chief was happy to stay if he got a pay rise.

    5h5 hours ago
    Brett Mcleod ‏@Brett_McLeod
    Vic govt says Joe Buffone offered to withdraw resignation and back CFA EBA if he got pay rise. Email from lawyer:
    Embedded image

  5. K2
    I’m also in the seat of McMillan. I must say even though I’m a rusted ALP voter I have been pleased with Russell Broadbent’s efforts.
    What are your thoughts on McMillan? I think it probably will be retained by Broadbent but with the usual swing.
    The CFA issue is a non issue AFAICT here in Bass but happy to be corrected.

  6. Just a thought about local versus federal issues.
    Here in Victoria rate capping with local councils would one assume be a BIG issue given service reductions, job cuts, etc and so forth.
    Interestingly THIS issue has received little or no interest from the LNP but the CFA issue has. Obviously the LNP are very selective in their support for specific ’causes’

  7. If the Greens were preferencing the X team, it would be conceivable for the X Team to have a clean sweep in SA. Quite conceivable now that the Greens will save both Lib and Lab MPs by preferencing the ALP first.

  8. Steven
    If NSW is anything to go by it will take years for rate capping to bite and enter the public consciousness. My rates have almost doubled in the last few years and my feeling is that the Council have been ‘saving for a rate capped rainy day’.

  9. Alp wins
    Nsw …… Patterson, Barton and Dobell….. changed boundaries
    Macarthur….. loses Camden…… probable ALP gain
    Eden Monaro, Gilmore……… excellent Candidates
    ?….. Reid, Banks, Lindsay, Page, Robertson
    Possible Indep…… New England Cowper

    Calare…… very big swing….. council amalgamations

  10. Who was that little waffler on the Drum ….. sheeze.

    (Only joking – anyhow he is away from the office for a few hours at least)

  11. My sister reports that the Coffee Bean poll in Westfield Burwood (within Reid, NSW) shows a decided majority for Labor.

    My sister tells me that it’s never been wrong… and she’s lived in the area – and participated in Bean Poll – for 30 years.

  12. Just had a robocall from “Bob” the concerned CFA volunteer who believes that only the Mirabellas can save him.

    Meanwhile, Mr Mirabella accused of menacing a Labor woman at prepolls.

  13. Mick @ 6:26
    Labor can probably kiss McMillan goodbye. The La Trobe Valley towns are stagnant or declining in population and becoming a smaller proportion of the overall. The only possible hope is that it somehow moves west and becomes more outer suburban – an eastern Victorian version of Corangamite so to speak.

  14. davidbewart: labor volunteers calling in for polling booth supplies are very upbeat . good labor vibe in a conservative seat @Labor4McMillan

  15. Just caught a glimpse of Michael Kroger on Sky. He said wtte that he is not prepared to call the election a done deal for the fibs

  16. Independent (ex-Liberal party member) calling Jason Falinksi a communist. Yesterday there was a full page ad in the paper with Falinksi as a puppet and “Kick out Turnbull’s Liberals”.

  17. Massola’s at it again:

    Labor Left MPs are already organising their first post-election factional meeting and, if the ALP falls short of victory on Saturday, Bill Shorten’s leadership of the party will be the first agenda item.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-labor-left-faction-already-planning-election-postmortem-leadership-discussion-20160630-gpvbuy.html#ixzz4D3A10SIz
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  18. wendy_harmer: Tomoz @702sydney mornings – biggest issue in #Election2016 via #abcvotecompass
    Welcoming @birmo and @KateEllisMP
    Taling questions, students!

  19. My confident prediction is that Shows On will crow at about 8.30 on election eve.
    P.S. If the libs are going to stroll home, why aren’t we getting leaked Liberal internals?

  20. I thought subliminal advertising was illegal in Australian. If any one is interested that message flashing on an off in black and white in top left hand corner of the Liberal ad was “same old labor”. You had to focus to pick it up.

  21. Jim Ball is the bloke calling Falinski a commie

    Jim is a scrappy drop punt

    [Just a heads-up for all my Facebook friends It’s time to act, after living the northern beaches good life for the past 5 years, it’s time to come in off the beach and draw the line. As a life long conservative voter and a one time Liberal Party member, (I drifted away 15/16 years ago) I like thousands of others in Mackellar, am grotesquely offended by the preselection of this Jason Falinski character to replace Bronwyn Bishop as the local member. After brooding and ruminating whilst weeding on Sunday I decided on Monday that I will therefore be an independent candidate at the election. My weeding has now to extended to weeding out Falinski. Pass the Zero please. So there you go, my April 20 birthday present to the people of Mackellar and the nation. ]

  22. Steve

    McMillan won’t change hands this time.

    But once Russell Broadbent retires, look out.

    It’s taken so long to get within striking distance after the AEC cut Traralgon out the electorate – and gave a whopping gerrymander to Gippsland – and gutted the Labor vote in McMillan.

    Blackburnpseph
    Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 6:31 pm
    Mick @ 6:26
    Labor can probably kiss McMillan goodbye

    what are you talking about???

    McMillan is safe Lib territory. It’s been Liberal for a long time. So no kissing goodbye to anything, just yet.

  23. What kind of idiot is Massola. Of course leadership will be the first thing on the Caucus agenda.
    The Party rule is that the leadership is open immediately after the election.
    Gawd, it’s not going to hurt me 1 iota to see the MSM journos like Massola go down the drain. The good ones can freelance on independent sites in the new innovative media we’ll help create.

  24. ‘if the ALP falls short of victory on Saturday, Bill Shorten’s leadership of the party will be the first agenda item.’

    Well, der. The rules say that after an election loss, there must be a spill. So of course the issue will be discussed.

  25. Claims of a boost to living standards from the government’s planned company tax cuts rest largely on a dramatic reduction in tax avoidance, a new analysis shows.

    It means most of the benefits from cutting company tax wouldn’t come from jobs and growth.

    Modelling by Canberra economist Chris Murphy for the federal Treasury finds the tax cuts would boost long-run living standards by around $5.2 billion per year, or half of one per cent.

    But the bulk of the increase, $3.9 billion, would come from reduced profit-shifting.

    The $3.9 billion figure is large compared with estimates of total profit-shifting. In June, an estimate by the charity Oxfam put the total tax Australia lost to profit-shifting in 2014 at between $5 billion and $6 billion. The estimates aren’t directly comparable because the $3.9 billion includes the cost of setting up in a tax haven as well as the amount lost to the tax office.

    “The $3.9 billion estimate is important because it means most of the benefits from cutting company tax wouldn’t come from jobs and growth,” said Victoria University economic modeller Janine Dixon. “They would come from the changed use of tax jurisdictions.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-company-tax-cut-claims-built-on-uncertain-foundations-modeller-says-20160630-gpvh62.html

  26. Almost 90 per cent of the asylum seekers Australia has sent to Papua New Guinea are genuine refugees, new figures suggest.

    Figures tendered to the PNG Supreme Court this week, and obtained by Fairfax, show that just 12.3 per cent of the detainees on Manus Island who have been processed were found not to have valid claims for protection.

    This means that 87.7 per cent of people who have been assessed are refugees – an almost identical proportion to the number of boat arrivals to Australia who were later found to be genuine refugees. Figures from 2012-13 show 88 per cent of boat arrivals were found to be genuine refugees.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/most-people-sent-to-manus-island-are-genuine-refugees-new-figures-show-20160630-gpv5ns.html

  27. swan_legend: NAB has confirmed their internet banking outage is due to Telstra and a fix may still be between 6-12 hours away

  28. Isnt the media blackout in effect? Doesnt that include ads in the newspaper? Today’s Manly Daily was full of political adds (Abbott and Nick Xenophon’s Warringah Candidate)

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