BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition

Daylight has finally opened between the two parties on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without quite freeing the Coalition from the risk of a hung parliament.

What would normally be the regular weekly reading of BludgerTrack, conducted after Essential Research completes the weekly cycle, finds a late break in favour of the Coalition, who have recorded a stronger result from Newspoll and two successive above-par showings from ReachTEL. The latest numbers also incorporate the Newspoll state breakdowns published on Monday by The Australian, together with state-level numbers from Essential and ReachTEL. The former were chiefly notable in finding a weaker swing to Labor in Western Australia than polling earlier in the campaign indicated. BludgerTrack now records a 5.5% swing in WA with two seats falling to Labor, which finally brings it into line with what both parties say they are anticipating.

The national seat projection now records the Coalition at 80, with gains since last week of two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and South Australia. However, since this is a two-party model, it fails to account for the threat the Coalition faces from non-major candidates in New England, Cowper and at least three South Australian seats under threat from the Nick Xenophon Team, and hence can’t be seen as definitively pointing to a Coalition majority. Full details at the bottom of the post, together with the latest reading of Coalition win probabilities on the betting markets, which seem to have resumed moving upwards after a ten-day plateau.

The final reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote 39%, but is otherwise unchanged on last week with Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 4%, with Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. There was also a follow-up question on preferences from those who voted for minor parties and independents, with Greens voters splitting 86-14 to Labor (83-17 at the 2013 election) and others going 52-48 to Liberal (53-47 last time), but high “don’t know” results limit the usefulness of these figures.

The poll also records Malcolm Turnbull gaining two on approval since a fortnight ago to 40% while remaining steady on disapproval at 40%, while Bill Shorten is up three to 37% and down one to 39%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 40-29. Of the remaining results, the most interesting for mine is that 50% think it very likely that a Liberal government would privatise Medicare, with only 34% rating it as not likely. The poll also records 30% saying Turnbull and the Liberals have run the better campaign, 28% opting for Bill Shorten and Labor and 8% favouring Richard di Natale and the Greens; 39% expecting a Coalition majority versus 24% for Labor and 16% for a hung parliament; and that 63% would support “phasing out live exports to reduce animal cruelty and protect Australian jobs” (a bit leading, in my view), with only 18% opposed.

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,080 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.9-49.1 to Coalition”

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  1. “If you look at the support for the Andrews Labor government’s progressive reforms around equality, which Shorten has been cautious in adopting … there’s nowhere for that progressive vote to go except the Greens.”

    The Guardian upbeat about the future of the Greens vote nationally, and in particular re the Greens’ chances in Batman.

  2. people are suggesting an overseas job for abbott.

    thought occurred to me that he could offer himself at leader of the Tories in the UK. They need a new PM, probably a temporary one for two years while they sort themselves out.

    he could shirtfront a few EU leaders, secure Britain’s borders, fix the economy, get the UK coal industry back up and running and generally bring peace and unity to the party, as he did in Australia.

    best of all he might even make the Labour Party electable again.

  5. I think Shorten should appoint Mr Abbott as ambassador to the Ukraine for services to Labor.

    Lots of opportunities to shirtfront Putin.

  6. TheMurdochTimes: Really, @RupertMurdoch? Election eve and your tabloids PRAISE the @Greens for ‘Putting Farmers First’

    Is it Jerry or the new medication?

  7. Am I the only one who has problems returning to PB after linking on to a twitter link? I use an Ipad and find it so annoying. Every other link is fine.

  9. Ratsak @ 5.05

    I agree that it is still an issue of Labor having too scattergun an approach. Which is why I never thought that NBN would be a big vote catcher. But there are some things Labor did not pursue enough after kicking things off. Negative gearing, for starters. It seems they backed away (no doubt following feedback from focus groups) rather than aggressively making the case that it was a huge waste of money that was creating an uneven field.

    But most of all, Labor should have run on disunity. It has been totally united for three years. It has a story to tell that it has learnt from what happened between 2010 and 2013, while the Liberals kicked out a first term PM and installed someone who is hated and distrusted by large numbers of his own parliamentary party. The Liberal claims of stability could have been knocked out of the park.

    That said, the brains trust at Labor HQ know a lot more than me and I am fervently hoping that their judgement is better than mine come Saturday night. Certainly, I don’t think the emphasis on Medicare was misplaced – only that it needed to be more aggressive in pointing out what a mess the Coalition is.

  10. j k @ #1753 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 5:07 pm

    The Oz headline: “Election done and dusted”
    FFS.
    –
    Yeah right. Wish i had that crystal ball- Id find out where MT is gonna be at Christmas time and get the raindeer to crap on his Rolls when he gets out.

  11. Jeez, we’re spoilt for choice in the RWNJ dept. in McMillan

    1. Lancaster, Donna (The Greens)

    2. Ipsen, Kathleen (Australian Christians)

    3. Baker, Norman (Rise Up Australia Party)

    4. McAdam, Jennifer (Animal Justice Party)

    5. McDonald, Jim (Liberal Democrats)

    6. Harding, Nathan (Family First Party)

    7. Buckingham, Chris (Australian Labor Party)

    8. Broadbent, Russell (Liberal).

    Ah well, at least the donkey’s in the right spot.

    But the Libs have a good run.

  14. lizzie – part of the ALP answer on the ‘higher deficits’ thing is that the LNP are including a number of ‘zombie measures’ in their calculations despite them not passing the old Senate and nothing to indicate they will pass the next Senate. The ALP claim they are being more honest, and if you take out the zombie measures the Libs are heading for “worse” numbers.

    I’m not sure on the strategy – they may win votes for “being honest”, or it may play into Morrison’s idiotic chart rhetoric. I’m not sure the ALP could have won either way – if they’d promised lower deficits and lower debt, no matter how solid the numbers and accounting was, I think there was a risk that people would just go “Yeah, nah.” and assume the ALP were bullshitting, whereas there’s perhaps the chance by taking the risk that people will look at the numbers and go “yeah, a little bit worse but at least they’re being honest, and those numbers don’t look too bad”.

    Dunno.

    I do wonder about the Federal budget though. They’ve been cutting and cutting for years – Swan and Gillard cut a lot to begin with, and then Abbott and Turnbull have been just cutting with absurd abandon, and yet spending keeps going up, deficits getting worse – it can’t just be health costs, surely?

  15. xoanon @ #1751 Thursday, June 30, 2016 at 5:05 pm

    “If you look at the support for the Andrews Labor government’s progressive reforms around equality, which Shorten has been cautious in adopting … there’s nowhere for that progressive vote to go except the Greens.”
    The Guardian upbeat about the future of the Greens vote nationally, and in particular re the Greens’ chances in Batman.

    Kind of a myopic thing for the Guardian to say considering that, just by looking at the seat of Batman; the Sex Party, the Cyclists Party, Animal Justice Party, the Marriage Equality Party, plus a left-wing independent, are running candidates in the seat.

  17. The Oz headline: “Election done and dusted”

    Well either I or the GG are going to look like Baghdad Bob on Sunday.

    Unlike the clowns at the Oz no one is paying me to be a propagandist perfectly happy to make a fool of myself 🙁

    Sadly it looks like you can only make a living out of it if you’re doing it for the right.

  19. I’d have to say I think the coalition supporters in the media are taking a great risk in running the line that the election is all over bar the shouting. It has the potential to stimulate a protest vote not just among swinging voters who might be inclined to give the government a kick, but also among the 2 or 3 percent of diehard Abbott supporters who might take it as a licence to vote informal or pay the $20 and abstain without running the risk of electing Labor.

  22. Re: Abbott for UK Tory party leader

    At least, if the truthers are to be believed, his citizenship credentials will be in order.

  23. Seat Predictions:
    Changing seats
    1. Capricorna to Lab
    2. Solomon to Lab
    3. Lyons to Lab
    4. Bendigo to Lib
    5. McEwen to Lib
    6. Burt to Lab
    7. Adelaide Less than 50% retain to ALP
    8. Mayo to NXT
    9. Port Adelaide to NXT
    10. Wakefield to Lib
    11. Barker to NXT
    12. Eden-Monaro to Lab
    13. Dobell to Lab
    14. Patterson
    Lab +3 Seats Lib -5/6 Seats NXT +3/4 Seats
    Lib/National – 84/85 seats, Labor 58 Seats, NXT 3/4 Seats, Green 1 Seat, Katter 1 Seat, Wilkie 1 Seat, McGowan 1 Seat.
    4 Seats for NXT from SA too in the senate. He will be part of the balance of power in the senate (possibly solely).
    Two things to note, firstly NXT will get a higher primary than LAB in South Australia. Secondly, I cannot believe the antics of state LAB in Victoria – they could have almost won the election in that state alone. They never voted for Tony last election, but Turngoat and Andrews will see an anti-LAB swing in Vic.

  24. Yes, well…

    ELECTION COUNTDOWN
    The Liberal Party has reached deep into its campaign coffers to fund what amounts to an advertising btitz before the curtain comes down on the electronic campaign.

    The Liberal advertising blitz has been carefully targeted. It is carrying a message about jobs and hope and is being directed at viewing times when both parents and young adults are believed to be watching.

    On Saturday and Sunday nights the adver tisements were relentless in their frequency.

    But the real question is whether advertising is having any real impact on the outcome of the election campaign and whether the frequency with which they are shown eventually becomes a negative.

    Canberra Times, Tuesday, March 9, 1993

    It ain’t over till it’s over.

  25. I haven’t heard a whisper from Russell Broadbent about the CFA. And, if indeed, it was a problem, he would have been all over it.

    Russell’s a long-term CFA vol. He didn’t even get involved with some hysteria from Wonthaggi.

    So, Rummel, stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

  30. Raaraa
    5. McEwen to Lib

    Isn’t that the one with Lib candidate Chris Jermyn? He’s not doing too well….
    It is – which is why I don’t think the swing will be as big as it could be in the seat – its notionally on 0.2%. Ballarat would have been another seat that Dan has put at risk, except for the brilliant local member, Catherine King – who will probably have another swing against her.

  36. I guess this has probably been posted, but just in case…

    First there was a ‘fake tradie. Now meet the ‘fake family’ of Higgins
    First there was the furore over “fake tradie”, and unfounded allegations the Liberal Party used an actor in its election ads attacking the ALP.

    Now embattled Assistant Treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer faces claims she has used a “fake family” in campaign material distributed in the once safe Liberal seat of Higgins, where she is facing a tough campaign from Greens candidate Jason Ball.

    The colour brochure, sent to thousands of Higgins voters, contains a photo of Ms O’Dwyer speaking with what appears to be a mum, dad and two kids.

    Liberal Party insiders have told Fairfax Media the man is Adrian Maher, a key member of Ms O’Dwyer’s campaign team. “That ain’t his wife, and those ain’t his kids,” said the party insider. “Forget about fake tradie, but this is certainly a fake family.”

    The source said the woman in the photo was also involved with the Liberal campaign in Higgins and “they are definitely not a couple”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-first-there-was-a-fake-tradie-now-meet-the-fake-family-of-higgins-20160630-gpvinz.html#ixzz4D2yBTSQp
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  38. K2

    I haven’t heard a whisper from Russell Broadbent about the CFA.

    He’s about as sensible as politicians come. If he din’t have a real grip on his seat he would have been ar#ed by now. Not like Hunt at all.

  40. Told you all last time

    William Bowe has to follow the media’s narrative which he is doing o the drum ,

    if people want to protest against the media the best thing people can do , is stop falling to gullible to people on crikey

  42. He’ll be distracted for at least 48hrs.

    Ice cream parlours, Luna Park, bars open until after 10pm, traffic roundabouts…

    He won’t know what to do with himself.

  45. [Re: Abbott for UK Tory party leader]

    1. The infrastructure PM: Rebuild Hadrian’s wall a bit further north than its original location.
    2. The “stop the boats” PM: Beef up border security with secret on-water operations in the North Sea and English Channel.
    3. The shirtfront PM: Make frequent trips to Brussels to harangue EU officials
    4. The “man of faith” PM: Have tete-a-tetes with his mate George Pell
    etc etc

    The perfect candidate to either unite or destroy the Tories.

  47. Russell Broadbent’s been campaigning to change the name of the Seat of McMillan – named after bloodthirsty Scot Angus “let’s murder all blacks on sight” McMillan.

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