Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

With a week to go, Newspoll finds the Coalition poking its nose in front for the first time since March, albeit by the barest possible margin.

The Australian reports Newspoll shows the Coalition opening a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 9% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Bill Shorten is steady at 35% and down one to 50%, and Turnbull leads 45-30 as preferred prime minister. The poll of 1713 respondents was conducted Thursday to Sunday. Here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, including tonight’s Newspoll and yesterday’s Galaxy:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Here’s a closer look at how the minor party vote has tracked since the 2013 election, with the Greens shown in green, Palmer United in orange-brown, and others in grey.

2016-06-27-minor-party-vote

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. The Commonwealth Bank whistleblower asks Cormann about the Royal Commission question on Q@A.. and he fudges to “under the previous Govt”—omg he is kicking own goals all over the place.

  10. UK Sun readers are unhappy that they weren’t told the consequences of Brexit by the rag before they voted.
    http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/the-sun-has-also-got-around-to-telling-its-readers-what-brexit-will-mean-and-they-are-not-happy–WySvafrAVZ

    The article claimed the following consequences of the UK leaving the EU:
    1. Inflation is likely to rise
    2. The cost of an average family holiday will rise
    3. Accommodation abroad will cost more
    4. Beer prices will go up
    5. EU caps on international calls will no longer apply, so it’ll cost much more to make calls in Europe
    6. Unemployment will rise and wages will fall by up to four per cent
    7. Mortgages prices will rise
    8. Rates of taxation will increase
    9. Benefit payments may be slashed
    Sun readers, seemingly in a dream up to this point, had the equivalent of a jug of ice-cold water thrown at them.

  13. No wonder the Liverpudlians voted Reman. Liverpool has a motto. ‘A Scouser never buys The Sun.’
    Hence my support of Liverpool Football Club.

  14. Let’s look at what must be Rummel’s argument here:
    1. Most people over 65yo voted “leave”.
    2. Everyone who fought in WW2 is over 65.
    3. Therefore, most people who fought in WW2 (and is still alive) voted “leave”.
    Elementary logic shows this argument to not be valid. However, humouring Rummel for a moment and allowing (3), his next argument is also invalid:
    4. The views of those who fought in a war should count for more than those who didn’t.
    5. So, the “leave” views of those who fought in WW2 should count for more than the “remain” views of younger generations.
    Rummel betrays his anti-democratic values here. He clearly rejects the principle of “1 vote 1 value”.

  16. puff, the magic dragon. @ #913 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    No wonder the Liverpudlians voted Reman. Liverpool has a motto. ‘A Scouser never buys The Sun.’
    Hence my support of Liverpool Football Club.

    Someone made a remark about this before. Liverpool voted remain because they never heard The Sun drone on about Leaving.

  20. Judging by her performance tonight, Marcia is a bitter person, and she takes great delight in putting the boot into Labor.

    Apparently she rode down the road to Damascus with Saul and Warren.

  21. psyclaw @ #920 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:04 pm

    Judging by her performance tonight, Marcia is a bitter person, and she takes great delight in putting the boot into Labor.
    Apparently she rode down the road to Damascus with Saul and Warren.

    Her appearance tonight has been woeful IMO, and Alan Jones a surprise.

  22. Someone who is 65 today was born 5 years after WW2 ended. It’s the parents of today’s sexagenerians who stormed the beaches.

  24. hairy nose @ #810 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    By the way people I know LOVE Polish (and other nationality) workers. Polite efficient and filling a real need.

    Having spent over 5 years in the UK working in the pub trade, I found that the Polish kids were fantastic people and workers. With only a few of exceptions I could the same of the British when it came to work.

  25. Boerwar
    Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:33 pm
    ‘Raaraa
    Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:20 pm
    daretotread @ #785 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:17 pm
    “BW
    I do not think it is just about Muslims in the UK. They were pretty hostile to Polish plumbers and Ukranian pros. ”
    It seems the meme of Polish workers is brought up in most cases immigration is mentioned.’

    I recall when, as migrants, we moved into a rural area of Victoria. Naturally we kids did what the kids had done on the family farm in Europe for at least three centuries: worked in the morning and at night, with school in between, and on the weekends. I still recall pausing to listen to the cheers when a goal was kicked at the local footie ground, wondering why people were not working, before continuing to dig a drain with a shovel. Dad worked hard. So did Mum. So did many of the other Hollanders and Italians.
    We were informed by the local Aussies that we worked too hard. It took less than a generation for the migrants to take over most of the farms in the district.
    I can see why there was resentment at us.

    It’s arrogance like this that turns most people off migrants.

    My gggg parents, and their children, as we did, your own generation, worked bloody hard, before you lot ever set foot in Australia. Generations of them. Granted, not three centuries, but Australia wasn’t that old.

    Whilst you were making your way in Australia, and welcomed into the districts, onto cleared farming land, done with back-breaking labour by generations before you, our families were also busy building community, while you reaped the benefit; but smugly thought you were better.

    And you still do. You pay no fealty to the work done before you. You don’t acknowledge that the sporting recreation was borne out of that hard yakka. People needed a break, but you smug bastards have always thought you were a cut above everyone else. As if you were the only ones to wield and implement when everyone else was at play.

    How much, really, have you ever done to enhance the community in your district? Given the enormous amount of anecdotes you have to regale us with, it seems you to me you have no roots, and nothing to show in any community that you have contributed anything worthwhile at all.

    Yet, despite your Dutch roots, you have a good deal of Pommy whinge in your genes.

  27. puff, the magic dragon. @ #913 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 10:58 pm

    No wonder the Liverpudlians voted Reman. Liverpool has a motto. ‘A Scouser never buys The Sun.’
    Hence my support of Liverpool Football Club.

    Liverpool was built on trade. Sugar, rum and fish in, textiles and metalwares out. As a port, they would be least likely to want to repress trading opportunities.

  28. Don’t even get me started on Jeremy Corbyn.
    Everyone here knows my opinion of Bernie Sanders so it might surprise you to know that I respect him many times more than Corbyn.
    A measure of just how far the left has lost its way in the UK is the fact that someone so hopeless like Corbyn could rise to position of alternative PM.

    Anyone who describes it as an honour and pleasure to host in his own words ‘our friends in Hamas and Hezbollah’ should never be allowed within spitting distance of the PMship.

    Thankfully the UK Labour Party now have an excuse to rid themselves of this terrorist apologising anti semetic throw back and elect a leader who is actually electable.

  29. I caught the last 1/2 hour of Q&A. I agree, Alan Jones was surprisingly interesting. Tanya performed well. Chris Richardson was interesting, Matthias was his usual self. Marcia was a bit flat.

  30. Hairy Nose

    I did read your link and found it uniformative. I found another much more academically reliable article that examined the Leave vote according to key demographicin the relvant electoratess . The five KEY correlated variables were in descending order I think:
    1. Educational level – high stay low leave
    2. Jobs in the area that required higher education (fairly intuitively obvious i guess)
    3. Not having a passport – leavers
    4. INCOME (not as strong as the ones above but still correlated)
    5. Age – older were for leaving.

    So cut the abuse. It is az Zoomster rightly pointed out similar to the One Nation demographic here. You have only got to look at the map of where the brexit vote leave came form to realise that the poorer areas voted leave.

    Of course the exception is Scotland, but that is all wrapped up in the whole Independence thing.

  34. Well I watched QandA it was as bad as I thought. Its a worry when Alan Jones is the best ally on the panel that Tanya Plibersek has.

    Some really good questions showing yet again how the neo liberalism economists are totally ignoring the social contract

  35. colton @ #928 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:11 pm

    Don’t even get me started on Jeremy Corbyn.
    Everyone here knows my opinion of Bernie Sanders so it might surprise you to know that I respect him many times more than Corbyn.
    A measure of just how far the left has lost its way in the UK is the fact that someone so hopeless like Corbyn could rise to position of alternative PM.
    Anyone who describes it as an honour and pleasure to host in his own words ‘our friends in Hamas and Hezbollah’ should never be allowed within spitting distance of the PMship.
    Thankfully the UK Labour Party now have an excuse to rid themselves of this terrorist apologising anti semetic throw back and elect a leader who is actually electable.

    Cheers, Colton. Thanks for this. I was unaware of the anti-semitic strain to his thinking and expression. Rather deepens the wound….

  36. Has there been any other apart from Newspoll that showed a shift to Coalition? Reachtel was -1 for Coalition, Galaxy was the same as before in 50-50. I don’t remember any other poll.

    It just goes to show how much weight Newspoll carries in the media circles. One Newspoll and the agenda is set till the next one.

  38. Boerwar, if you don’t get that parties are allowed to have policies on the Israel/Palestine conflict without also having ones on the strife between the Sudans or the Rohingya in Myanmar, I’m not sure what to say to you other than that your finger should also be pointed at Labor and the Libs.

    Love that you gave the Coalition a bounce on your imaginary friend’s campaign tally, by the way. Your twenty point lead for Labor wasn’t going to play well with the punters after a narrow election loss, hey?

    See you on Thursday night.

  39. Those of you raving against Corbyn for talking to Palistinians who represent the people will forever evade peace.

    Diplomacy makes leaders say some stupid things. They are no worse than Saudi Arabia with at least the excuse they use they only weapons they have. No I am not endorsing those groups. I am just saying don’t talk to them and you will get ISIS instead as someone seeks to fill the vacuum left by Israel destroying any political structures as part of their occupation.

    Palestine is accepted world wide as on the path to be a state in its own right. The first thing the Israelis have to get into their heads is this means no matter how much Israel hates it the Palestinians have rights.

    I am sick of this if you talk to Palestinians that means you are anti semitic. Its just BS.

  40. Jeremy Corbin has now list 19 of 31 shadow ministers, he lost 5 who were prepared to support him but as a result of a meeting with Corbyn they all resigned.
    He is trying to make a vote into his leadership public not private although I am not sure what that will do except further undermine him.

  42. Liverpool’s great rival city, Manchester, also voted Remain, despite having no particular issue with The Sun.

  43. Briefly and Colton
    English Labor seats or very many of them are in areas with hugh Muslim populations. I think that you should expect that many politicians from those areas will be supportinve of Muslim radical groups, just as JFK seeking support in Boston was supportive of the IRA. Given that UKIP has taken the poor white workers, SNP the Scottish labor voters, Muslims is pretty much all that English labor has left.

    Given Sanders is Jewish, it is a bit rich to call him anti-semitic.

  44. gorkay king @ #936 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:16 pm

    Has there been any other apart from Newspoll that showed a shift to Coalition? Reachtel was -1 for Coalition, Galaxy was the same as before in 50-50. I don’t remember any other poll.
    It just goes to show how much weight Newspoll carries in the media circles. One Newspoll and the agenda is set till the next one.

    The polling is all very tight…and all of it points to the same place. The “other” vote holds the key to the election. How big will it be in contests where there are plausible 3rd voices as well as those without such voices? Where has it been drawn from? Where will it be distributed? Where will “other” prefs flow?

    They are the mystery on which the result depends. Who are these voters? They are hard to measure…

  45. daretotread @ #943 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 11:23 pm

    Briefly and Colton
    English Labor seats or very many of them are in areas with hugh Muslim populations. I think that you should expect that many politicians from those areas will be supportinve of Muslim radical groups, just as JFK seeking support in Boston was supportive of the IRA. Given that UKIP has taken the poor white workers, SNP the Scottish labor voters, Muslims is pretty much all that English labor has left.
    Given Sanders is Jewish, it is a bit rich to call him anti-semitic.

    Colton described Corbyn as anti-semitic. He made not remarks about Sanders.

  46. The undermining of Corbyn has passed the point of no return. The Murdoch press and their Blairite allies have made sure of that.

    Corbyn will have to go or the membership has to elect an entire new Cabinet unless Labour has a caucus like Labor does.

  49. With QandA again the public is not buying the neo liberalism right wing we must have austerity no tax increases for services crap the panel was saying.

    Note Marcia Langton was all neo liberalism laffer curve except when it came to her cause the First people.

    I think we may still see a lot of preferences go Labor way because two things are still resonating with voters. They hate the banks and think scrap the plebiscite to pay for the Royal Commission is the way to go.

    The panel was just out of touch with what a government is for. One standout exception of course

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