The Australian reports Newspoll shows the Coalition opening a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 9% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Bill Shorten is steady at 35% and down one to 50%, and Turnbull leads 45-30 as preferred prime minister. The poll of 1713 respondents was conducted Thursday to Sunday. Here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, including tonight’s Newspoll and yesterday’s Galaxy:
Here’s a closer look at how the minor party vote has tracked since the 2013 election, with the Greens shown in green, Palmer United in orange-brown, and others in grey.
Thanks TPOF.
He must have been a goner at the start of the campaign because if he can’t manage to topple this awful government, he certainly has not campaigned well at all.
boerwar @ #773 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:09 pm
I was attempting to be kind to Bluey and not kill him off but merely express my malodorous inclination towards his prognostications. :
Brexit links to Russia & China.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Hot-off-Brexit-Vladimir-P-by-Pepe-Escobar-China-Investment-Corp_China-Politics_China-Russia-Alliance_Vladimir-Putin-160626-160.html
Serious question for those arguing about the horror of Brexit
Exactly what are the jobs at risk and where are they? What industries depend on being in Europe and will suffer? What industries may survive if the UK issues counter tariffs.
This is a serious not rhetorical qustion. I just feel that the London bankers are wailing long and loud but what is the ACTUAL impact. For example there will presumably be immediate benefits to locals if immigration is slowed – houses, jobs health services but this might be offset over time by reduced investment. But I do not really know the details – Briefly nor do you.
Now only 40% of UKs exports are to Europe and presumably a goodly share of this will remain. So maybe there is a 20% loss of exports, but possibly there could be gains as well elsewhere.
Now people talk about places recieving $ from Europe. Why do they get this money?
Does every politician these days only face the press with guidelines from a media adviser? I miss the times of politicians speaking frankly. (Not directed at any one person in particular.)
dtt…you’re basically trying to find a way to reconcile the irreconcilable. The Leave position has been espoused by the idiotic neo-fascist, Nigel Farage. None of his arguments make any sense at all yet he has split the Tory Party, humiliated Labour and is the cusp of doing more damage to the UK economy than both WW1 and WW2 combined. His lines failed with working people and the young. If I were you, I’d stop trying to excuse his so-called success.
Anyone know what the Liberal party is going on about with “local votes” in their ads – the Turnbull walking one refers to it, as does the ALP-Green hung parliament chaos terror one.
Is this just a cheap way to try to make people feel more engaged, or is it some odd reference to House vs Senate voting? It just sounds peculiar to me every time they do it, and there must be a reason (and it always gives me a “League of Gentlemen” vibe which can’t be the intention).
the election at stake over $16B -? after the subs – a bit of creative accounting or pruning labor – how could this issue crop up at last minute? or am i falling prey to media?
By the way people I know LOVE Polish (and other nationality) workers. Polite efficient and filling a real need.
I’m not dismissing the awful privation in areas like Sunderland but that has precious little to do with Europe and much more to do with Thatcherism.
In fact it has often been EU rules that have protected workers rights against a vicious Tory government.
‘Raaraa
Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:20 pm
daretotread @ #785 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:17 pm
“BW
I do not think it is just about Muslims in the UK. They were pretty hostile to Polish plumbers and Ukranian pros. ”
It seems the meme of Polish workers is brought up in most cases immigration is mentioned.’
I recall when, as migrants, we moved into a rural area of Victoria. Naturally we kids did what the kids had done on the family farm in Europe for at least three centuries: worked in the morning and at night, with school in between, and on the weekends. I still recall pausing to listen to the cheers when a goal was kicked at the local footie ground, wondering why people were not working, before continuing to dig a drain with a shovel. Dad worked hard. So did Mum. So did many of the other Hollanders and Italians.
We were informed by the local Aussies that we worked too hard. It took less than a generation for the migrants to take over most of the farms in the district.
I can see why there was resentment at us.
Welp, 4 Corners is a lot better when it’s less topical and have more time to prepare their material.
hairy nose @ #786 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:18 pm
You may be interested in this explainer about the main motivators behind the Brexit campaign and their motivations:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/key-figures-leave-government-conservatives-boris-johnson
Briefly
Look the leave people were less well educated, lower incomes and older. I think that they may be considered the working class, by any normal measure.
The fact that someone you do not like is arguing for a particular issue does not make the issue wrong. The North east which voted heavily for Leave has just suffered a huge job decline. There is your rationale.
Anyway, I don’t think anyone should assume that Malcolm’s let’s all be calm and adult because the world is an uncertain place is resonating out their in the community. We shall see.
BW,
Maybe you need to tell Bluey, ‘All work and no play makes Bluey a dull occie’.
Please Bludgers – explain Malcolm’s Plan to me. Even Ferguson didn’t get an answer for me. Starting to think I’m a dumbo.
Geoffrey Labor is gambilling they can win the fairness argument. The only trouble is that apparently they are adopting some of Abbott’s harsh measures. It weakens their argument a little.
Well that’s the media rhetoric anyway.
boerwar @ #811 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:33 pm
I can relate. Often I hear managers say, “I like to hire immigrants from , they work hard.” or WTTE.
$16B over 4 years, no less. But apparently that’s a really big deal, if the Coalition is to be believed.
Gee Labor must be worried. They have raised GScareT in their ads.
‘Look the leave people were less well educated, lower incomes and older. ‘
Exactly the kind of person who voted for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.
i have always felt labor vote would be 3%+ higher with another leader … always
but bill has improved a lot and one hates to consider outcome if he looses. bit of aussie brexit im afraid
Turnbull is already being put on notice. Lol!
Sky News Australia
42m42 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Credlin: Parliament unlikely to pass plebiscite legislation, vote by MPS could put @TurnbullMalcolm job in jeopardy. http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2016/06/27/credlin–plebiscite-trigger-won-t-pass.html …
Sky News Australia
42m42 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Credlin: Parliament unlikely to pass plebiscite legislation, vote by MPS could put @TurnbullMalcolm job in jeopardy. http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/federal/2016/06/27/credlin–plebiscite-trigger-won-t-pass.html …
If you lived in the UK you’d be a Tory… a pompous old geezer who gets appointed to the Lords when he reaches a certain weight.
daretotread @ #805 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:29 pm
50% of UK exports go to the EU. The list will be very long but will include all the stuff they make these days…all kinds of hard and soft products created and used in automotive, aerospace and aviation, pharmaceutical, therapeutic and other medical, computing, communications, bio-technical sectors, ceramics….processed foods, agricultural, fisheries and forestry products…just think of the whole scope of manufacturing and extraordinary scope of jobs they include from the low-skilled to the most knowledge-dense.
This production will not have duty-free access to EU markets. Rather than cease production for the EU, it will just be shifted. Renault or Citroen will close their English plant and move them to Spain, Lorraine, Slovenia or the Veneto or somewhere. The jobs and the workers who fill them will be left behind…but the capital will re-locate.
This is what Leave will do.
It is as if Australians decided “No, we will not sell metals and minerals to China and Japan.” It is totally addled.
I think Credlin is prosecuting her own agenda. She’s a player who hates being out of the game.
BH
The Plan is exactly the same as THE PLAN Tones had in 2013. THE PLAN was mentioned endlessly but never enunciated. Oh and did I mention the press pretty much accepted THE PLAN’s existence without asking WTF it actually was. ?
A R
Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:38 pm
the election at stake over $16B -?
$16B over 4 years, no less. But apparently that’s a really big deal, if the Coalition is to be believed.
—-where the hell did that figure come from – libs never invented it – there should be no such low figure at all, certainly at this stage of election – is bowen asleep?
The Buckland riots (staged not far from here) were driven by resentment because the Chinese worked harder than the (largely British) diggers did, and thus made more money – often adding insult to injury by going through areas the diggers had already ‘worked’.
Nothing much has changed, apparently.
Davidwh
Turnbull is toast
Whilst we are throwing shade on the ABC, I fear MediaWatch has also jumped the shark
DTT
‘Serious question for those arguing about the horror of Brexit
Exactly what are the jobs at risk and where are they? What industries depend on being in Europe and will suffer? What industries may survive if the UK issues counter tariffs.’
1. 12% of the UK economy is the financial services industry. British, foreign and non-UK banks tend to be headquartered in the City. This industry has around a 100,000 direct jobs. With the UK out of the EU the UK, the EU rules will penalize financial services providers headquartered in City. Ditto branches of, say US banks located in the The City. Although no-one is sure about how many City jobs will go, it will probably run into tens of thousands by the time the dust settles. With them will go many indirect jobs. With them will also go, presumably, substantial part of the 66 million pounds in tax that the Financial Services Industry pays. That tax is being used to employ doctors, nurses, school teachers and the like.
2. The UK sells a substantial part of its manufactures and services inside the EU. There will be a conflict between a fall in the value of the pound and EU tariffs. Whatever the resolution of that, the EU will make sure that industries and service providers are protected. Of course if there are efficient UK providers they may receive rewards for shifting into the EU…
3. The end point of invoking Clause 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is a forced exit of the UK at the end of 2 years. Negotiations will drag on, presumably, but if they fail the UK will still be out. Given the certainty of economic contraction in those two years and given the uncertainty of how it will all play out vis-à-vis the UK’s access to trade with the EU, wise investors will look elsewhere.
4. There are other straws in the wind. If Scotland pulls out of the UK and goes to the EU, then England will have lost another five million people.
5. If the UK does force a million or so people back to Eastern Europe then it has effectively chased away a mostly willing and energetic labour force.
6. But wait, there is more, so much more. The dross will come to the surface in all sorts of way. For example, Airbus is an EU project. Britain makes Rolls Royce engines and makes Airbus wings. If someone else can make the wings (Germany, France, Italy) then that is where the wings will go. If the EU can buy cheaper Boeing engines, it will. And so on and so forth ad infinitum.
One thing is for sure: the things we obsess about on PB will have very little impact on how people vote. They will take a much broader brush approach.
why argue – fairness or otherwise – about some $4B a year.
i cant believe this is out bin media – whose fault is that? the issue is the Deficit word
DTT – I now see you are wilfully blind to posts that correct you. I posted I think yesterday that your simpilistic notion that Leavers were in the main dumb old and poor was wrong. I gave you links to support my view and even William corrected you.
Can I ask that you read carefully what is said before continuing on you merry way to repeat mistruths.
Laughable that YOU accuse Briefly of not having an open mind when yours is closed like a trap.
Looking at Sportsbet. Likely good bets –
Labor to win at least 1 seat from Liberals in WA – $1.22.
Labor to win both NT HOR seats $1.50.
Lambie to win Senate seat in Tas $1.20
Some of their odds for Senate are pretty mean – $4.00 for Madigan to get Senate spot, $5.00 for Ricky Muir.
Damned right. Voting rights for high earning young graduates only. That’ll fix those pesky peasants.
He will be if he loses the election Victoria. Outside of that its just assumption and wishful thinking.
I’m at the local RSL. The TV’s nearest us is in the background, on whatever channel is showing “(?) Love Child”. Malcolm in a sensible blue suit is on high rotation, talking directly at whoever is watching “the election’s underway blah blah blah… we are the only one’s with a plan blah blah blah…We need your vote…” Actually not a bad ad – obviously aimed at the disengaged, Malcolm being businesslike, succinct (for once), reassuring. I’m assuming that, being a republican, he isn’t using the Royal “we”.
I noticed one Labor ad. There may have been more. Just now, to my surprise, I saw a PUP ad. Something about Bronwyn Bishop getting $20,000 a month for life (4 helicopter rides maybe).
Up next, the Alan Jones Show.
Davidwh
Said it before and I will say it again. Win, lose or draw, Turnbull is toast
What a coincidence…
Today, President Michael D. Higgins begins his visit to #Scotland: http://www.president.ie/en/diary/2016-W26 … @scotparl @ScotGovFM @scotgov @IrelandEmbGB
Golly, the Greens can dish out but they can’t take it.
I have been waiting for them to flood the site with the Di Natale Ring of Confidence and with braggadocio about how they have destroyed Labor’s chances at government and about how their vote is going to be 15% on Saturday.
But the Gs do seem to have gone awful quiet lately.
Has ABC Media Watch’s Paul Barry got the most annoying way of speaking on TV?
Poroti
Ah, now I get it. Serves me right for not reading Tones blue book 3 years ago 🙂
president of the solipsist society @ #802 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:28 pm
If the Gs were to case campaigning for the election of a Liberal government we might be able to take their comments about leadership more seriously.
psyclaw @ #596 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 5:11 pm
Good to hear.
and turnbull has got away without three town hall leader’s meets – quel joke – and shorten seems to have obliged him or let him do so
Boerwar
Monday, June 27, 2016 at 9:51 pm
Golly, the Greens can dish out but they can’t take it.
I have been waiting for them to flood the site with the Di Natale Ring of Confidence and with braggadocio about how they have destroyed Labor’s chances at government and about how their vote is going to be 15% on Saturday.
But the Gs do seem to have gone awful quiet lately.
—time to worry about your own party