Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

With a week to go, Newspoll finds the Coalition poking its nose in front for the first time since March, albeit by the barest possible margin.

The Australian reports Newspoll shows the Coalition opening a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 36% (steady) and Greens 9% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 37% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Bill Shorten is steady at 35% and down one to 50%, and Turnbull leads 45-30 as preferred prime minister. The poll of 1713 respondents was conducted Thursday to Sunday. Here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, including tonight’s Newspoll and yesterday’s Galaxy:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Here’s a closer look at how the minor party vote has tracked since the 2013 election, with the Greens shown in green, Palmer United in orange-brown, and others in grey.

2016-06-27-minor-party-vote

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,037 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 15 of 21
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  1. William, I wonder if you could offer an opinion on the apparent overstatement of the combined minor party vote, which seems to have been a constant in opinion polling for as long as I can remember. Your graph of the minor party (incl Greens) vote published today starts at the 2013 election date, but plainly not with the 2013 election results. At that election -http://results.aec.gov.au/17496/website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-17496-NAT.htm – the Coalition and the ALP shared a combined 79% or so of first preference votes in the HoR (where, of course, many of the minor parties do not stand candidates in most seats), meaning that the rest shared about 21%. But, to my naked eye, your chart today suggests that BludgerTrack had them at about a combined 26-27% as at that date. It still has them at about the same total today (although of course the mix is very different – PUP dead, NXT emergent). Is it likely to be any more right this time? Or is it just an inevitable feature of opinion polling, ie that some people just don’t like to admit to pollsters that they are major party voters? What impact would it have if an adjustment was made for this factor, and how might an appropriate adjustment be calculated and/or estimated?
    (Also, thanks to those who correctly surmised, in response to my one and only previous post last week, that despite my name I am NOT the former Federal A-G!)

  2. C@Tmomma earlier you mentioned that Marine le Pen should be careful what she wished for as European fragmentation would play into Putin’s hands. Her and Putin are good mates and she approves of his expansionism.

    Le Pen, Putin, Trump, Palin, Pilger – there are very strange bedfellows in this saga….

  4. CTar1
    Monday, June 27, 2016 at 7:34 pm
    It’s just ‘amazing’ how the Liberal leaning commenters all keep mentioning that Labor may have overdone it on Medicare …

    However there appears to be no limit to discussing “stop the boats” and “debt and deceit” …you can never overdo the deceit!!!!

  6. Kenny’s second article for the day see him in full Turnbull For PM! throat.

    Bill was never going to win. There was a slight indication in early June, but Brexit and his lies over Medicare have wiped all that out. You see, Libs don’t lie. Well, at least Malcolm doesn’t. Tony might have, but that was then. This is now.

    Anyway, Bill might win enough seats (you know, the seats, plus a few more, he was going to lose back in last October because Turnbull was just so unstoppable and could be PM For Life if he wanted, and yeah, that other thing about how brilliant the Double Dissolution gambit was — if he’s lucky Malcolm might just hang on… How brilliant is that??? Eh? SEN-sational political work from the Master who lost the unlosable Republic Referendum!).

    It’s all here if you want a laugh…

    (Oh, and by the way, if Bill can win almost enough seats to tomost beat Turnbull, then he “might” keep his job as LOTO. That’s a pretty good consolation prize, what?)

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-labors-unlikely-win-slips-away-analysis-of-11-major-polls-finds-20160627-gpstn7.html

  7. Rummel
    Monday, June 27, 2016 at 7:03 pm
    I’m still shocked at the media and political response to Brexit and how fast people seem willing to drop the democratic principle when a vote does not go as expected … even your ABC.

    —————-i think murdoch’s influence should disqualify any poll or election – something in media rules – maybe last two elections in australia should be re-run

  8. It’s just ‘amazing’ how the Liberal leaning commenters all keep mentioning that Labor may have overdone it on Medicare …

    Actually, I thought the polls showed the punters *believed*Bill on this?

  9. Ducking out of work early, I took a late afternoon shift handing out HTVs at Gordon, deep in Bradfield in Sydney’s North shore.
    It was cold,closing time was 5:30. As it got darker and the voters dropped off some of the others said they would go early, I said I would stay until closing as I hadn’t been there all afternoon.
    So of course most of them stayed until the close 🙂

  10. rummel

    democracy can only be legitimate when conducted by rules … would one uphold hitler’s claim to be democratically elected when his gangs were roaming street and the opposition in jail? (also egypt and dozen+ states today)

  11. I’ve just been watching “Outnumbered” on ABC23. The little girls asks about the House of Commons “How do they decide which laws to make?”
    Dad replies “Well, they read the “Daily Mail”.
    Translated to Oz that would be the Daily Teleme

  13. The online version of the The Age this evening (to illustrate just how low rent this once great paper has become) is fixated on the following
    – Commuter “pain” over Frankston line level crossing works (gosh… this is not news and was known 12 months ago)
    – Ben Cousins’ new drug problems
    – Yet another yawn fest over the Game of Thrones (zzzzz……………)
    – Melbourne’s coldest morning (it “IS* Melbourne)
    – Several stories about the end of Bill S and the ALP and it is practically all over red rover so everyone go back to watching Masterchef and Game of bl&&&y Thrones.
    Class journalism all round. Makes the Hun look good.

  16. Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey has THE most sensible post Brexit analysis I’ve seen so far. This:

    You can’t get more elite than the Eton-and-Oxford-educated buffoon Boris Johnson, now visibly at a loss about what to do since he backflipped and opportunistically became a leader of the Leave campaign. That the EU could somehow be portrayed as a bastion of neoliberalism and market economics is laughable — witness the Welsh town that heavily depends on EU subsidies voting to leave.

    The darling of the far left and doughty opponent of neoliberalism, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, campaigned for Remain, albeit so tepidly that he failed to mobilise the Labour vote. And while Wales is the poorest part of the United Kingdom, the average wage in both Scotland and Northern Ireland is considerably below that of England, but both voted Remain — especially the Scots. Hard to portray the Scots as members of some out-of-touch supranational elite.

    And the most perfect indicator of voting intention was age, with likelihood of voting Leave increasing perfectly consistently with age. It was the oldies wot won it — leading to claims of intergenerational war and Baby Boomer selfishness, except for the problem that younger voters didn’t turn out in the same numbers as the grey army of Brexiteers.

    What’s clear in the aftermath is that no one expected Leave to win, not even Leave. David Cameron has announced his resignation and indicated he won’t be initiating the departure process, leaving that with his successor (“why should I do the hard shit?” he is said to have asked). The leaders of the Leave campaign are already busily backpedalling on some of the promises and claims they made during the campaign about the benefits that would flow from leaving the EU. The actual Leave process from here is entirely unclear: the EU wants to get cracking and start the departure process immediately, but there’s talk of waiting months to start it from the British.

    Johnson has argued, with a serious face, that Britons would still get all the benefits of EU membership despite the UK leaving. The problem for this ridiculous optimism is that the EU can adopt an all-care-and-no-responsibility approach to the negotiations that will commence as soon as the departure clause is triggered, because the UK automatically gets kicked out of the EU after two years of negotiations. There will be no pressure on the EU to agree to anything the UK wants; it can simply run down the clock to late 2018.

    And the hapless, politically ineffectual Corbyn is facing open mutiny, sparked by his own decision to sack shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn, in turn prompting a dozen shadow ministers to resign; his own deputy, Tom Watson, is refusing to back him. Labour seems to be waking up to the fact that, given the Tories are in disarray and a new prime minister, whether Johnson or a uniting figure like Theresa May, will likely go to an election, having the least electable leader since Michael Foot guarantees progressive voters are, in effect, disenfranchised.

    So true re Corbyn. He’s a Di Natale type in that he’s wishy-washy, trying a for bet here and there wherever he thinks he can shore up political support. And domestically, in relation to the parallels between Brexit and the Libs’ promise to hold an SSM plebiscite, Keane says this:

    Like the moderate, centrist David Cameron holding a Brexit referendum, moderate, centrist Turnbull is holding the same-sex marriage plebiscite as a sop to the far right of his party. The UK campaign has meant an MP murdered by a Brexit supporter and shameless xenophobia and fearmongering from Leave campaigners.

    It demonstrates how events can spin wildly out of the control of those who set them in motion. We know Turnbull doesn’t want the plebiscite. His judgement might yet be confirmed in ways he doesn’t expect.

  17. BK:

    Corbyn needs to go. I never supported his leadership as he always came across as insipid and weak and cowardly.

  18. BK

    Tom denying the tap

    Update: Tom Watson source furious at BBC for claiming Tom Watson directly asked Corbyn to resign, wants them to apologise and retract story.

  19. Chris Bowen just kicked Sales’ arse all over the shop. In fact, she basically just gave up and let him talk. She knew he was out of her league.

  21. ken mcneill @ #711 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 7:51 pm

    I’ve just been watching “Outnumbered” on ABC23. The little girls asks about the House of Commons “How do they decide which laws to make?”
    Dad replies “Well, they read the “Daily Mail”.
    Translated to Oz that would be the Daily Teleme

    How true, it’s amazing how much influence they seem to have in directing the political debate.
    Another thing that really annoyed me when living in the UK was how the media would ask bullshit irrelevant questions, relating to the latest celebrity scandal, to politicians as if this was somehow important in their role of being an MP.

  22. K17

    Leigh Sales main problem is not bias, but she does not comprehend economics. Complex application of sound theory to systemic problems are interrupted by crap like “explain it in terms an average viewer would understand” or “what does this mean for jobs and growth”.

    Chris Bowen was remarkably patient.

  23. SPROCKET – She’s got the Shadow Treasurer there and she asks him if Shorten should continue as LOTO if he loses the election. What a total lightweight.

  24. c@tmomma @ #663 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 6:36 pm

    Wow it’s getting fugly in New England:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-tony-windsors-wife-deeply-upset-after-nationals-ad-implies-he-has-a-mistress-20160627-gpsrej.html

    Horrible ad.
    It makes some very unpleasnat imputations about Windsor. But it’s most unlikely to work. It’s premise is all wrong. The electorate is asked to identify itself with a 30-ish blond woman who may have had a fling with Windsor in the past. Surely this will repel both male and female voters of all ages and inclinations. It’s gotta be one of the worst ads I’ve seen for a long time.

  26. Why the *%# do we need industrial relations reform? Industrial disputation is at an time low. Wage growth is stagnant. Full time employment as we have known it is being phased out, with full time work being replaced by casual and part time, with many not knowing whether they will be called to work that day until their employer deigns to call them in.

    Union coverage is at an all time low, employers now expect the government (or the workers themslves) to arrange and pay for training. They can use 457 visas to bypass the Australian labour market. And they can hide behind labour supplier companies and suncontracting and subsubcontracting to avoid award obligations.

    Further, Workers are crushed with the high cost of housing. They have very little bargaining power. Sure it suits a multinational multi billion corporation to negotiate ‘one on one’ with the guy who stacks the shelves.

    On the other hand, we haven’t yet reintroduced indentured labour, peonage or skavery. Maybe there’s more to do.

  27. Bluey Bulletin No 92

    AGENDA – WALL TO WALL STABILITY AND BREXIT
    IATA is predicting a significant fall in UK air travel. Some airlines association or other is also lobbying hard for the UK to maintain landing rights in the EU post Brexit. There is talk of the UK doing the same thing as Norway. But this seems to mean that you get access to the EU, contribute to the EU, abide by all the rules of the EU (including immigration) in return for market access. The Northern Ireland leader wants the EU to do a special deal on the Irish border. Bluey reckons Hello?
    Around 100,000 City jobs are in play. Not all will go but they generate over 60 million pounds in taxes for the UK. Net beneficiaries will include Frankfurt, Dublin, Amsterdam and Paris.
    The Scots reckon that they can block Brexit by way of the terms of the devolution act or something like that. Bluey reckons bullshit.
    As for the implications for the Australian elections: the Spanish voted on Saturday, took one look at the Brexit mayhem, and killed the Spanish ratbag populist fringe surge stone dead. Bluey notes that if Spain Spaxits then Catalunyxit and Basquexit will almost certainly follow. Hooray for Bam Bam!
    Having dropped $50 billion on Friday, the ASX clawed back a smidge today. Bluey reckons dead cat bounce. The gold price continued heading north at a great rate.
    Bluey reckons that the unfortunate thing for Labor is that the Di Natale have been promising a reprise of the RGR years all during the election – not casually, or informally, but deliberately, consistently and persistently. That instability, global instability as exemplified by the loss of $50 billion on the ASX in a single day, and the Coalition’s brand of economic stability, are coming together in a firestorm for Labor.

    THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN SLAVE TRADE
    Bluey has noted from time to time that the single greatest blight on Australia: the conditions of around 800,000 foreign workers here on 457s and the like, ought to have been a major election issue. Bluey reckons that the visa rorts stuff is but a pimple but that the great boil continues to suppurate. Frankly, Bluey does not understand why the man of the workers, Shorten, has been virtually mute on this. Bluey reckons that Shorten would have to know what has been happening.

    SLINGS AND ARROWS
    Bluey notes the unkind thoughts cast in his direction and his response is akin to the one from the chap on the fort wall in one of the Monty Python sketches.

    SLEAZE
    Bluey has long had a bit of a view that Joyce is a slippery sleaze. Bluey was disappointed that the MSM chose to look the other way when Joyce crashed twice in a short time. On the latter occasion this involved ignoring a road closed sign and subsequently writing off a Commonwealth vehicle in a flooded creek. Bluey notes that Joyce has had no compunction about smashing the lives of 200 ACT staff by shifting them to the boonies for his personal political gain. Now Joyce has topped off this saga of sleaze with a ratbag ad about Windsor’s private life. Bluey reckons that Joyce is unfit to be Deputy Prime Minister of Australia.

    POLLING
    Bluey reckons merde. The nasty bit in the innards was a 2% climb in the Coalition primary.

    Verdict for the day: Liberals.
    Cumulative tally: Labor 57 Coalition 60

  28. BK,
    25 resignations in total not including Watson. Only about 4 of the shadow cabinet are actually supporting him but unions and other groups that got him elected have come out and said they still support him.

  29. [For the record, Labor is promising a deficit that is $16.5bn higher than the Coalition over the next four years. But the Coalition’s costings count on $30bn of “zombie measures” that haven’t made it through the Senate – some of them from 2014. Australia has more chance of being a republic in 2020 than these measures have of being passed into law.]

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/strap-yourselves-in-folks-the-attack-ads-are-coming?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I didn’t realise the zombie bills totalled so much. I thought Bowen said the figure as $9bill.

    JK – I could cope with those numbers altho I’d desperately like Labor to win but I dread Turnbull winning by more than that. The sods would pile lots of nasties on us in the years ahead if they got a good mandate.
    I noticed today that all clips of Turnbull are smiley, sunny shots whereas those of Bill are much gloomier looking. Darn it.

  31. geoffrey @ #710 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 7:50 pm

    rummel
    democracy can only be legitimate when conducted by rules … would one uphold hitler’s claim to be democratically elected when his gangs were roaming street and the opposition in jail? (also egypt and dozen+ states today)

    In fact Hitler gained power by democratic means. It’s what he did straight after that turned his rule into a totalitarian dictatorship.

    The number one rule of democracy is the power of the voters to revisit their decisions at reasonable intervals. It keeps those in power accountable and those not in power free to come up with alternative ways of doing things and vie for the opportunity to do so through an election or through the capacity to put pressure on the government of the day.

    In the context of the Brexit vote, from this distance it seems to me that not enough of the consequences were spelt out to the voters for them to make the best decision for themselves. That said, the risks of returning to a referendum are very great – the idea that you keep going back until you get the right answer is anathema to any nation’s progress.

    For that reason, many people strongly supporting the remain option are still committed not to oppose the moves to leave the EU. And quite rightly. If the decision is to be revisited, a petition signed by a large number of people who, for all we know, may have all voted to remain is not going to be enough.

    Maybe a general election with Labour promising to reverse the decision and the Conservatives promising to carry it through (given how many Tories were leading lights in the leave movement) might show a way forward. Otherwise, they are stuck with making it work for themselves and stuck with the legitimate concerns of the constituent nations in the kingdom who voted to remain.

  32. Rummel
    Monday, June 27, 2016 at 8:05 pm
    Geoffrey

    are you claiming that for Brexit?

    hi rummel no im not saying brexit is full authoritarian league however the press manipulated and finally determined it – and might happen this sat – there really should be rules for reasonable reporting of elections –

  33. Why didn’t Labor make more of the zombie measures. They are extremely unattractive and if people realise that they are giving a mandate to the Coalition to implement these measures they would be very unhappy.

  34. so how could labor allow any bad press in last week – or stop attacks on deficit and liberals? or even admit to a $16b figure

  35. Finally watched the anti-Windsor ad. Interestingly, she didn’t say what a great lay her current beau is.

    A very disgusting ad for its sheer negativity and sleaziness.

  37. Jeremy Corbyn is a strong defender of social democratic policies. The Blairites are self-serving, morally and intellectually empty careerists who have got to go. Labor’s supporters and members need MPs who will fight for them, and Blairites are not up to the job.
    If another leadership election is held, Jeremy Corbyn will be emphatically re-endorsed by Labor’s members, and the Blairites will have to yield.

  38. Brexit…52% voted leave on a turnout of 72%….so about 3/8 of the population are going to wreck their own livelihoods as well as those of the other 5/8. Useless Tories. Useless Labour too!!!

  39. Briefly

    Brexit…52% voted leave on a turnout of 72%

    The UK Press should be asking all those people on the street they interview if they voted.

  40. nicholas @ #737 Monday, June 27, 2016 at 8:39 pm

    Jeremy Corbyn is a strong defender of social democratic policies. The Blairites are self-serving, morally and intellectually empty careerists who have got to go. Labor’s supporters and members need MPs who will fight for them, and Blairites are not up to the job.
    If another leadership election is held, Jeremy Corbyn will be emphatically re-endorsed by Labor’s members, and the Blairites will have to yield.

    This is insane. Corbyn got what he has always wanted…a result that will invoke the obliteration of the British export-facing manufacturing and services sector. It might well be the Trots have taken control of Labour, in which case it will shortly cease to be a going concern in English politics.

  41. Nicholas

    Jeremy Corbyn is a strong defender of social democratic policies.

    But he’s bleating in the dark and not getting his message out.

  42. Nicholas as you well know the situation for UK Labour is FAR more complex than Blairites v Corbynites. Your simplistic analysis of issues is quite annoying.

  44. The five factors that correlatedn with voting leave are:
    Not holding a degree
    Living in an area where there are not jobs needing a degree
    HOlding no passport
    Lower income
    age

  46. Bevan Shields
    51m
    Bevan Shields‏ @BevanShields
    Credlin says the plebiscite will fail to pass Parliament, the issue will have to go to a vote on MPs and it will trigger a Coalition war

  49. Watching Four Corners. Good until Ferguson starts on The Killing Season. She’s like a dog with the best bone in its life never wanting to let go of the triumph.

  50. My fave is the lady they asked why she voted leave.
    It turned out she did not think that leave meant leave.
    Do nations do Darwin?

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