The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.
This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.
We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:
• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).
• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).
• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.
• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.
ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:
Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.
Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.
Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.
Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.
Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.
Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:
From the last thread
[
Everyone wants to blame someone or something for the rise of Trump, NXT, Bam Bam Johnson, Farage yadda yadda.
Me too! I blame junk food and the impulsivity of modern western culture.
And globalisation.
And reality TV.
]
All of these disturbing changes have appeared at the same time as the rise of psephology blogs on the Internet. I think people like Kevin and William have a lot to answer for.
Yep. A very nasty ad slagging Shorten for being weak on the economy, weak on boats and at the mercy of the Greens in a hung parliament. Been on five or six times.
Also seen on high rotation an ad with Turnbull waving his hands at the camera how a “Turnbull Coalition Team” will “protect” Medicare and provide stability and economic leadership. Puke-making.
Oh and an ad for the brain dead Liberal candidate for Paterson.
jimmydoyle @ #152 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:09 pm
Of these messages, the single most damaging is the claim that Labor may enter a deal with the Gs. This is utterly toxic.
Maybe we could lose the gross sexual metaphors when expressing our displeasure of Sales’s interviewing? It’s not the fucking stone age.
Try again
Margo Kingston
2h2 hours ago
Margo Kingston @margokingston1
So @LaurieOakes reports there will be a second Labor launch on Sunday ’cause new seats in play now. #ausvotes
https://twitter.com/9newssyd/status/746253782787383302 …
Margo Kingston retweeted
Nine News Sydney
2h2 hours ago
Nine News Sydney @9NewsSyd
#9News Political Editor @LaurieOakes explains the impact #Brexit decision will have on our own federal election. http://snpy.tv/28UOmor
Nigel Farage channelling the ‘US President’ in ‘Independence Day’.
I know it’s unhelpful, even highly annoying, but when Di Natale talks about Greens alliances with Labor it says quite clearly he is trying to garner media attention. The Greens have been largely invisible in the latter weeks of this campaign, esp over here. I’m not surprised the Greens need to cloak themselves around Shorten in order to suck up as much attention as they can get.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/victory-freedom-le-pen-demands-referendum-france
Briefly – I must admit it is worrying that the Liberals are spending so much money in the Hunter media market. Paterson should be locked in for Labor.
Vic:
Isn’t the Lib launch on Sunday? #confused
The anti Shorten adds were always going to happen.
Labor will just have to deal with them.
Cheers.
I agree.
president of the solipsist society @ #154 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:15 pm
Says the guy who couldn’t leave out the word fu*king.
Dave:
Someone at work today was wondering what a UK withdrawal would mean for Ireland and Nthn Ireland. She envisaged a return to the separatist hostilities of 30+ years ago which I found quite alarming.
jimmydoyle @ #159 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:18 pm
The Libs will fight with everything and anything they can find. They have piles of $ and just a few days left in which to spend it. So spend it they will.
If I were to go through this thread and delete all of the wholly moronic comments about the news media, there’d be depressingly little of it left.
Another highly original comeback from C@Tmomma, brimming with all the verve and wit of a clogged urinal.
Sounds like Turnbull got the Full French from Sales tonight!
president of the solipsist society @ #167 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:24 pm
…the tactics of the hooligan…
Briefly – true. Hopefully Labor can still pull it off.
Poss
I don’t use the kind of language you object to, but exactly the same kind of metaphors are used by posters here for male journos, too — it’s equal opportunity sexual slurring.
confessions @ #164 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:21 pm
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Fess – not sure why that would emerge now.
Have seen other reports (unlikely IMO) that English Occupied Ireland might re-unite with the remainder of the Emerald Isle to both remain in the EU ?
The way I currently understand things by sometime in 2040 based on current demographics the votes will be there to reunite Ireland?
After a 1000 years about Bloody time I say!
AR I also thought he didn’t do very well and waffled as usual BUT those who scrutinise less will not recognise the negatives …. which is abut 98% of viewers, unfortunately.
Plus Leigh’s comrades in the press pack will laud her efforts and MT’s responses … it’s a bit Pavlovian when you think about it
jimmydoyle @ #170 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:27 pm
I am not in any doubt (yet). Voters are inured to nearly all advertising….and they really do not like intensely negative, personal campaigning. They are more likely to switch the ads off or flick the channel than to absorb them. Great swathes of the electorate barely even watch free-t0-air TV at all, still less believe advertising, journalists and politicians. They just discount nearly everything they see and hear.
Elizabeth Farrelly a few months ago on the IPA:
Ideas themselves are not dangerous, but when money and “ideas” hold hands, get suspicious. Then get cracking. Fight for our freedom to see the strings and who’s at the pulling end.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/institute-of-public-affairs-the-think-tank-with-arms-everywhere-20160406-gnzlhq.html#ixzz4CUWYVgu4
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
The IPA are far mor inimical to the Australian way of life than any ‘Union thug’, ‘extreme Green’, or bikies or jihadis for that matter.
By the way, I’m sure that’s not Bluey in the ‘Think Tank’.
WB
It’s only a few pages
sceptic @ #122 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:48 pm
Oh wow! She might have had a Liberal Party document on which she based a question.
Serious tin-foil hat stuff.
There is plenty to criticise in her performance without grasping at stuff like that.
Jesus, seriously?
Good luck to the Scotts if they want to leave Great Britton. Who will pay for their pensions then? The Germans… lol.
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Amen to that! Over and over and over…..
Plus its a democratic right to do so.
a r @ #128 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 7:52 pm
Agree. But Sales sure went out of her way to make it easy for him.
Still didn’t help him much.
Briefly – Labor’s advertising only aired during the news. The onslaught of Liberal advertising has been constant and therefore highly irritating – I imagine undecided voters would be equally irritated.
FWIW ..my rellies in the UK all (three) voted to leave the EU..
..most important issue that has caused the most anger (rage might be a more accurate descriptor) was NOT immigration ..NOT unemployment ..NOT the un-relenting attack on welfare recipients ..NOT housing affordability..
..it was the destruction of the National Health Service by Cameron & his spivs..
Briefly,
I agree with you.
I would have thought the personal attack style advertising would be a turn off for many especially if it comes across as hysterical.
Interesting to see what labor comes up with in the last few days.
Cheers.
“Thought I saw Liberal Party logo on Sales notes in the wide shot.”
That would be the only place that’s it’s been seen this election.
Well in breaking news, Teenage Fanclub are releasing a new album in September. Cheered me up no end.
sprocket_ @ #140 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:04 pm
And a complete ban on hacks employed by other ‘news’ organisations.
Hi folks after that Sales interview I can’t help but make one of my three yearly or so comments.
Why was the interview with Shorten last night set up to look like and interrogation different lighting and not at the usual desk position and yet Turnbull is just seated and lit as usual in the normal position with Sales in her usual spot too? Surely at least they would have had the two interviews set up the same way for some attempt at it being seen as both leaders being treated equally?!
Its just too weird!! Do they acuttally want it to seem totally obvious the two leaders aren’t to be treated the same way???!
Deja vu.
The tories here either copy those in the UK or the Repugs.
Rossmore, how would you feel if I passed your douchebaggishly sexist comment about Leigh Sales up thread on to Norman Blake?
rummel
Haggis bashers should unite with the ‘Scandis’ , They have much in common and shared history.
Nobody has mentioned this, but Leigh did at least make the point, on two separate occasions, that Labor got us successfully through the GFC. Turnbull’s response was the same Liberal response, debt and deficit etc, to which Leigh pointed out that the deficit has tripled. No, Turnbull did not get anything like the treatment that Shorten did, but I don’t really think Turnbull gained anything much from the interview.
The only things that really register with voters are stories they can personally relate to…which is why broadcast news is mostly (tediously) about the local, the trivial, the ephemeral, the yawningly inconsequential. It’s why idiotically dreary, repetitious cooking shows attract such large audiences. We all eat, cook and shop and there are “competitive stories” featuring winners/losers with whom audiences are invited to identify. This kind of meaning-free junk TV captures viewer attention.
Politics is very high on the list of content that viewers/voters have learned to ignore.
rummel @ #185 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:37 pm
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OK – I’ll pay that one. lol
Dave:
As I said before I haven’t really followed this issue in detail to be able to offer informed comment, but if what you say eventuates, then yes, it’s about bloody time!!
kevin-one-seven @ #142 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 8:05 pm
The phone bank I have worked on has stopped calls at 8:00pm.
We are going to give it another half hour for the final week as the response rate has been better around 8:00pm.
Lest I sound too much the SJW, I wish Sprocket would have the sense to recognise how foolish he sounds when referring to “Fatso Farr” who “spews Murdoch bile”. Or that “Daily TurdBurgler” wasn’t even funny the first time.
Briefly,
I have been meaning to ask you for your opinion re the change of tack from Bill on the privatisation of Medicare. He did seem to moderate his message today.
Would it be something labor has picked up from feedback and such like ? I am interested in your view seeing you spend so much time talking to voters.
Cheers.
Wasn’t the Tasmanian polling dropping now?
ALP unlucky not to be back to 50-50 Reachtel