ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition

The Coalition just keeps its nose in front on the latest ReachTEL national poll. Also featured: marginal seat polling galore.

The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.

This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.

We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:

• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).

• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).

• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.

• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.

ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:

Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.

Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.

Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.

Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.

Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.

Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:

bludgertrack-2016-06-24

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,347 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 23 of 27
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  3. confessions @ #1096 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:49 pm

    I expect Mal is taking notes to apply to his plebiscite.

    Mal doesn’t care about the plebiscite. He instigated it as a sop to his party’s right wing. If it fails then whatever. He’ll be moving on.

    Fair point – Mal probably won’t be leader by then anyway. And since they RWNJs don’t intend to abide by the result, they probably don’t care either.

    Can someone remind me again why we are spending $160 million on a pointless plebescite?

  6. I could have some sort of respect for the liberal right wing if they stopped the plebiscite from going ahead, but to try and game it, so they could vote ‘no’ in a parliamentary vote is very poor. Especially after spending $160m and a decisive campaign.
    They should simply get one vote , on the day of any such plebiscite , like everyone else.

  8. confessions @ #1101 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:53 pm

    Turnbull the weakest leader of the Libs since Downer.

    Ouch, even after “the things that batter”?

    ………………………………………………………………

    Some here posted sometime ago, wtte –

    I once heard Mr Downer’s father, Sir Alexander, described by someone (working for the same side of politics) who knew him as “the dumbest thing that ever walked upright”.

  9. K07, News Corp does decide the seats that get polled. But this notion that Galaxy is doing loads of polling and News Corp is cherry-picking the seats it publishes is a fantasy. On Monday I will email David Briggs and ask him to send me full results from the polls, and I will receive from him exactly what News Corp received. You need to have a think about the fact that the strongest poll series for Labor during the campaign has been Newspoll.

  11. victoria @ #1104 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:55 pm

    CFMEU
    3h3 hours ago
    CFMEU ‏@CFMEU
    GP asking voters to save #Medicare and put the #LNPlast #auspol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlVnOt6lbTk&sns=tw … via @youtube

    Health is biting in Perth as well. Cuts to hospital budgets, financial and clinical mismanagement, cuts to pathology support, co-payments, the high cost of private insurance, the risk to Medicare…they are all real and they all get a run from voters…

  12. WB….what do the pollsters say about the difficulty (or otherwise) of accounting for the opinions of voters that refuse to be polled??

  13. Davidwh

    Sorry to hear that, Davidwh. Hope the grandkids visiting isn’t too much, then. Best wishes to your wife.

    And it’s good to see you still commenting despite the god-awful crap your beloved party has dished up over the past three years. Takes some courage.

  14. WILLIAM – You mean, David Briggs would reassure you that everything he polls on the instructions of News Corpse is published. If so, I will pull my head in (though I do note that News Corpse does get to pick the seats). As I said, I’m not questioning the polling of Galaxy or Newspoll. But to say I don’t trust News Corpse would be an understatement.

  15. Dave:

    Eek! That’s pretty bad. MT being talked of as being in the same category must send alarm bells through the Lib partyroom.

    And on that note, where’s Abbott? 😀

  16. “It should be a matter of concern to Labor that 2 out of 3 voters are not buying what Labor is offering as their first choice. So what are they going to do about it?”

    On the other hand Rossco 9 out of ten voters aren’t buying what the Greens are offering. What are you going to do about it?

  17. On eve of Brexit, Aussie media had two headlines ready to go:

    BRITS VOTE TO LEAVE – DISASTER FOR SHORTEN!!

    ..and:

    BRITS VOTE TO REMAIN – DISASTER FOR SHORTEN!!

  20. Kezza the Abbott period was ok because it was expected. Turnbull has been harder to deal with because I expected much better.

  25. Can someone remind me again why we are spending $160 million on a pointless plebescite?

    The same reason the British had their Brexit vote: to paper over internal difficulties inside the ruling coalition.

  26. Hi Kezza

    A day or two before you reappeared on the blog I was out on my daily walk and for some reason you popped into my mind. I found myself wondering what had become of you. It seemed such a long time since you had posted anything. Then all of a sudden there you were – back with us again.

    An amazing coincidence, or telepathic communication? Either way, welcome back. I hope your eye has fully recovered.

  27. steve777 @ #1125 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 9:24 pm

    Can someone remind me again why we are spending $160 million on a pointless plebescite?
    The same reason the British had their Brexit vote: to paper over internal difficulties inside the ruling coalition.

    I’m dreading the plebiscite…see it as nothing but a licence for the publication of fear and insult…

  29. Mr. Shorten deserves the chance to govern

    He’s been given nearly 10 months. More than enough. Failed.

    I wonder what the front page of tomorrow’s Sunday Telecrap will be? The Sunday before the last election, it was a fall page picture of Abbott “Australia needs Tony”.
    They were giving it away free at the local newsagent. I said no thanks I had plenty of toilet paper.

  31. Bluey Bulletin No 90

    Bluey calls it: Brexit is the Black Swan Event that means Labor has no chance of forming Government, and it increases significantly the probability that Turnbull will have a clear majority in the House. The only other big feed to come in the last week is the Labor deficit figures and these will feed straight into bias confirmation vis-à-vis the Brexit story.

    Bluey urges all Labor supporters to keep their heads up and to go down fighting to assist Labor to pick up as many marginals as possible. This matters muchly.

    The only light relief for the day was Keating belling the Greens cat. ‘Opportunists and Trots hiding behind a Gum Tree’. Boom tish.

    Verdict for the day: Liberals
    Cumulative Tally: Labor 57 Coalition 58

  32. Shorten and his team are ready to govern.
    How much longer can News Ltd and their mates try to convince us that the current lot are governing? Couldn’t hold a chook raffle, piss up in a brewery, root in a brothel. Name your cliche. They are useless.

  33. boerwar @ #1131 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 9:32 pm

    Bluey Bulletin No 90
    Bluey calls it: Brexit is the Black Swan Event that means Labor has no chance of forming Government, and it increases significantly the probability that Turnbull will have a clear majority in the House. The only other big feed to come in the last week is the Labor deficit figures and these will feed straight into bias confirmation vis-à-vis the Brexit story.
    Bluey urges all Labor supporters to keep their heads up and to go down fighting to assist Labor to pick up as many marginals as possible. This matters muchly.
    The only light relief for the day was Keating belling the Greens cat. ‘Opportunists and Trots hiding behind a Gum Tree’. Boom tish.
    Verdict for the day: Liberals
    Cumulative Tally: Labor 57 Coalition 58

    Bluey has it wrong on Brexit. Today I asked more than a few Labor-intending/past-Lib voters today what they thought of Brexit. They had heard of it, thought it very remote from them and said it would not factor in their decisions. This was the unprompted reply of all those I asked. This is just ephemera for most voters.

    Voters were thinking about health, jobs, traffic, local facilities, education, support for families….they were not thinking about Lib-panic.

  35. NORWESTER – You’re standing in the polling booth and you’re thinking why you should re-elect this mob. Surely, unless you’re rusted on, your mind is a blank.

  39. Well, it feels like political groundhog day in here again. Most in the room way overstating Labor seat wins and then shock, disbelief and (usually) anger at the voters afterwards for ‘getting it wrong’.

    Marginal seat polling is extensive, usual a week out, and the betting markets make for an even stronger position. The usual tightening of odds has occurred and on my data I can see no coalition gains and a single, quite likely, loss to NXT in Mayo (others will, no doubt correct me if they have seen the betting markets predict any LNP gains). The marginal seat betting market sees Feeney lose to Greens but Albo and Plibersek both marginal wins but wins nonetheless. Katter, McGowan and Wilkie are all holds and that leaves the Greens with Melbourne and Batman. So the parliament:

    LNP: 80
    ALP: 64
    IND: 3
    GRN: 2
    NXT: 1

    This is nowhere near enough for Labor to regain power, almost no change from predictions I made here three weeks ago now on this basis. The Coalition will, no doubt console themselves that “It could have been worse under Abbott”, much as the ALP did in 2013 to justify the change to Rudd. The difference being, I guess, that the Coalition will win this one.

    The senate is likely to be far more interesting. Nick Xenophon can at least play cribbage with another party member when it gets boring in the senate (or when SHY says anything). David L looks like history, though he has some ‘brand recognition’ and those who don’t understand Libertarians may think he makes the world of sense. I can’t see a single net gain for the Greens in this election, they did surprisingly well last time and I don’t think they will be as lucky this time. Ricky Muir is on his bike (rather than in a Monaro), Bob Day is a chance with FFP polling curiously higher in SA, Jacqui Lambie will survive easily, Glenn Lazarus a chance.

    Certainly, the HOR looks to be a bit of an anticlimax this time around. Bill Shorten may sink a few seats if he decides to keep on with the stupid Medicare Lie (and other dumb lies like the ‘$100 000 degrees etc) by simply taking voters as too stupid. If you must lie you must do it well. I actually hope he does continue with this strategy so that it can go under the microscope and maybe strategist for both ALP and Coalition can take a long, hard look at stupid scare campaigns like boats, work choices, medicare and, of course, the Great Barrier Reef, that apparently all parties but the Greens are going to annihilate by Christmas.

  40. By the by….most voters I spoke to have already condensed their thoughts into intentions…there are some undecided, but they are few and they are Labor-leaning. There is no sense that a few news bulletins are going to change several years of sensitisation around Lib incompetence, deceits, follies and contempts. This also suggests that they do also believe Labor can govern in stressful times….which, of course, is a completely rational position to hold. Voters already know the times are difficult or uncertain and already have a willingness to vote Labor. Voters are in fact a lot smarter than they are given credit for…I absolutely love them.

  42. DavidWH@1120

    Kezza the Abbott period was ok because it was expected. Turnbull has been harder to deal with because I expected much better.

    Everyone expected much better. When Turnbull became PM, I expected him to move the LNP back to the centre, and to implement evidence based policies after mature discussions with voters.

    I did not want an LNP government, because I do not like their neglect of the poor and the unemployed. However, I thought that if we had a reasonable Turnbull govt, with generally good policy decisions, I could live with it.

    And for me to say that is something!

    Anyway, Turnbull has been a massive disappointment, and I have completely reassessed who I though the many was.

  44. The MSM would back Trump here if he was the Lib prime minister.Can you imagine it?

    Well, they backed Abbott, so yes. In fact, Murdoch is backing Trump for President, so again, yes.

  45. Labor ready to govern. That much is clear to anyone paying attention.
    Libs popping red, blue, green pills to blot out the horror of their complete hopelessness. *Help us please Uncle Rupe*

  46. Dave
    Bluey took one look at the world’s stock markets today and gave the Liberals 22 points today. Bluey understands that most of falls are probably algos playing silly buggers but the punters won’t get that.
    They will retreat to economic ‘safety’. Silly buggers.

  49. Bluey calls it: Brexit is the Black Swan Event that means Labor has no chance of forming Government, and it increases significantly the probability that Turnbull will have a clear majority in the House. The only other big feed to come in the last week is the Labor deficit figures and these will feed straight into bias confirmation vis-à-vis the Brexit story.

    This is also my conclusion. Even without Brexit, when the ReachTel last night showed no movement, with Labor still short of enough seats to prevent Turnbull getting a majority, I thought it was looking tough.

    In addition, the Brexit Black Swan event means that there is now little chance for Labor to grab that much needed momentum to get a few more seats.

    But, I am not giving up on holding Turnbull to a minority government. There are a large number of “other” votes this time, and these could deliver unexpected results on an individual basis.

    In 2013, Antony Green called the election a win for the coalition at about 7.10pm. If it takes a few hours longer this time, then I will consider that a consolation.

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