The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.
This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.
We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:
• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).
• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).
• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.
• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.
ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:
Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.
Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.
Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.
Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.
Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.
Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:
K07, Galaxy Research is not owned by News Corporation. I’m not in a position to respond to the rest of your comment, because I can’t make any sense of it.
scoutdog @ #1040 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:03 pm
Irrelevance?
This is a great article by John Harris on the reason for Brexit: ‘If you’ve got money, you vote in … if you haven’t got money, you vote out’
Unfortunately, most of the issues probably have nothing to do with EU membership and much to do with those in power advocating for exit.
Note, some of the this applies to Australia and the US (and probably drives the support for Trump). We’re still seeing it in Australia with what the Government is doing to Medicare and with its proposed business tax cuts.
kevin-one-seven @ #1048 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:10 pm
………………………………………………………
Mmmmmm.
Comment from William in late 2014 –
No doubt Toorak Troll will take that as a sure sign that Colovic is going to romp it in.
Evan P
Thanks for the feedback from Longman. An Adelaide rellie went to a Shorten Town Hall forum in Hindmarsh (I think) a few months ago and she said he was well received. Friends with her who were swingers were actually swayed by him.
Oops, that doesn’t sound quite right. Swinging voters now giving Bill their vote.
Good to hear Evan – would luuurrrvvvvveeee that pipsqueak in Longman to go down – he’s tangled up with Brough, Pyne and the bringing down of Slipper. While I never liked Slipper’s politics, and I can’t comment on his personal life, he was an excellent Speaker and I was really sorry he got shafted.
zoomster @ #1049 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:12 pm
Nicholas is a propagandist. He is happy to make common cause with the racists of the National Front and UKIP…to overlook their turpitude for the sake of some ideological crusade.
In the UK, the petit racists and chauvinists of the middle class voted with their fears and prejudices for Brexit. They have annulled the future for millions of young working people…and he is applauding them.
One day maybe even a positive comment of some sort from him as well.
But don’t hold your breath.
I was in the CES delivering Job Clubs etc. We had good successes with them. Job Clubs were good because the short term unemployed e.i. four weeks uemployed (ue) they got free access to resume templates, application letters, phone calls, computers, printers, photocopiers, interview practise and postage. As well the 4 week full time course, with a Job Club leader, in job seeking included intensive phone calling and cold calling employers, as well as access to the CES vacancies. The Job Clubs were successful and we had a different program for people in different stages of unemployment, including three month, six month and twelve months plus. Also there was a specialist Disability Jobseeker Advisor. We had funding to address just about anything people had as a barrier. There was not a lot we could do to redress the unemployment rate, as in jobs created, but we gave people a good crack at what was there. We also funded training for long term unemployed people to take up positions with employers who were expanding. I remember we put a group through a Pesticide handling course for a business expanding their termite control area.
It worked a hell of a lot better than the useless Jobnetwork abomination that replaced the CES.
William, as I understand it, polling conducted under the “Galaxy Research” (not Newspoll) brand is:
1. Exclusively for news corpse (which presumably provides instructions and decides what will be published);
2. So far during this election, at least, has only provided seat-level polling;
3. Its polls are published on an infrequent basis (that is, no pattern);
4. When it is published, it only provides polling for selected seats (once again, no pattern);
How can much weight be placed on Galaxy polling?
Guardian article cited 2 petitions underway, one asking for a do-over with a requirement for a super-majority, the other petitioning Sadiq Khan for London to secede from the UK and join the EU!
Not saying those ideas would have legs or even deserve to, but I must say I’m glad our constitution is just that much more difficult to amend
http://gu.com/p/4my9v/sbl
There are enough pro-SSM Liberal MP’s to ensure SSM will be legislated if given a free vote. The conservatives can try and vote it down but they just don’t have the numbers to be successful.
Just robopolled
If an election held now, who would you vote for?
1. Lib, 2. Labor, 3 Green, 4 Others, 5 Don’t know
Press 2
Is your vote likely to change between now and election?
1. Yes, 2. No
Press 2
Demographic questions. Then,
Who do you usually vote for?
1. Libs, 2. Labor, 3. Greens, 4. Other
Press 3
Lizzie, if you’re about: I M OK.
The wind’s been a bit of a shocker here in Motown. Power outages mean stop-start internet connection; I gave up trying to post the other night, especially since half of it disappeared!!
Crossing fingers.
Speaking of negative comments for Shorten, whatever happened to Rex Douglas and Mexicanbeemer? Neither have been seen for ages as far as I can tell. Unless they comment during the day when I’m at work.
PS. Don’t know why they’re robopolling Mcmillan.
NewsCorp may tell Galaxy which electorates they want included but I doubt they can tell Galaxy how to conduct their polling.
Oops: “Cornwall votes for Brexit and then pleads to keep EU funding” http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-cornwall-issues-plea-for-funding-protection-after-county-overwhelmingly-votes-in-favour-of-a7101311.html
Note the promises made by those advocating leave.
Puffy:
Thanks for that personal insight. People mine and Nicholas’ ages often forget because we were so young and therefore have no personal reference point, the reality and lived experiences of people directly affected.
Fess – Yes Rex disappeared when Shorten’s polling improved and hasn’t been seen since – *under that name anyway*.
Beemer has just disappeared ?
DavidWH
It’s all hypothetical but I wonder of the RW plan is for there not to be a plebiscite at all.
It would involve engineering a crisis over the rules and question for the plebiscite, knifing Turnbull and the putting the whole thing on the back burner again because is it is divisive and the time is not right.
As good a theory as any I reckon
Kezza:
Long time no see. I hope you’ve been well.
DAVIDWH – If News Corpse can:
1. tell Galaxy which seats to poll; and/or
2. when to poll them; and/or
3. has a discretion as to what it publishes
It doesn’t matter if it can’t tell Galaxy what methods it should adopt.
Hmm. Looks like the bankers, insurance agents, accountants, finance consultants, real-estate agents and stock market spivs in London don’t much like democracy …
Dave:
Rex disappearing once the polls narrowed makes sense (Mod Lib anyone?). But Mexicanbeemer’s sudden disappearance is unusual. I hope everything is ok.
Davidwh, Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:32 pm
[NewsCorp may tell Galaxy which electorates they want included but I doubt they can tell Galaxy how to conduct their polling.]
If you were addressing that comment to me, then I have to tell you they didn’t identify themselves as Galaxy. They didn’t identify themselves at all.
BTW, how’s my favourite grandparent’s grand-parenting going?
Carey meanwhile Ellis has updated her facebook status, an attack on Colovic’s gaffes about Kilburn being the “poor end” of his electorate. Not sure the good burghers of Toorak Gardens would care much about that but it’s a diverse electorate for sure.
I actually literally laughed that Colovic had wasted his printing budget on it
Rossmcg some conservatives may try to stop the plebecite but it would be political suicide. A large majority support the process.
PO:
If at first you don’t succeed, then try, try again.
Puff,
I worked on that paper with Junankar at UWS.
The establishment of JobNetwork and now rebranded as JobActive pretty much privatized the delivery of job services which led to the providers being more interested in collecting their outcome payments and focusing on easy to place job seekers than doing meaningful work for hard to place disadvantaged jobseekers that needed more intensive work.
Fess,
Was out of action for a long while; poked myself in the eye, of all things. But all good now.
Thanks for asking.
How’s the new love?
Hi Kezza I’m going fair and grandparenting is still a joy. Will have two for a week the first week of July.
My comment was a general one regarding the Galaxy comments and not in relation to your post.
Good evening all,
For what it is worth the Sunday Age will call for a Shorten government to be elected in its editorial tomorrow.
One of the reasons for that support is labor has a better plan for the economy.
Cheers.
Galaxy under the yoke of Murdoch paymasters is a not legit. The latest batch of marginals have been ‘editted’ in Murdoch style.
Why no Eden-Manaro in NSW? This is the bellwether.
Why no NXT gains in SA? This is the talk of the town.
A blank sheet for WA. Well, I think we get the picture by now.
Murdoch droogs are gaming us (again).
A nice read if you want a refresher on the ALP’s green credentials under Keating. When Keating said he was Green he meant “Friend of Old Growth Forest Loggers and Woodchippers”.
http://www.auspsa.org.au/sites/default/files/environmental_policy_joan_staples.pdf
From the time of John Gorton, through the leadership of Whitlam, Fraser and Hawke, the Commonwealth had built up federal legislation to protect native forests (Ajani 2007, 6). In 1994, there was a public dispute between Environment Minister John Faulkner and Resources Minister David Beddall when Beddall increased woodchip quotas. Subsequently, Prime Minister Keating intervened to ensure that the Commonwealth relinquished responsibility for protection of native forests by handing all decision making to the states. This was despite a Newspoll at the time showing 80.3 per cent of Australians wanted native forest woodchipping to stop (Ajani 2007, 11). By the time this particular conflict arose, the NGO environment sector was deeply disillusioned with the lack of support Keating showed for the environment. Wilderness Society (TWS) director Marr (2008) claimed somewhat dramatically, ‘the Labor Party declared war on me, on the Wilderness Society and the forests’. The response of the environment movement was a vigorous, fiercely fought forestry campaign. Keating’s senior advisor, Don Watson (2002, 538), emphasised the importance of the conflict sparked by Beddall’s action, claiming:
The result was a debacle, the beginning of the end of the government’s relationship with the environment movement, a humiliation for the Prime Minister and an unimaginably splendid start for John Howard when in the New Year he became leader of the Opposition.
….
Keating’s behaviour towards the environment organisations at the end of his prime ministership sums up the extent to which the relationship had deteriorated. Prior to the 1996 election, the environment NGOs held meetings with both the major parties. Parlane (2010), representing one of the state conservation councils, recalled that a number of environment organisations were involved, including the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF), TWS and the state environment councils. Keating kept them ‘waiting for a couple of hours’ and
was ‘incredibly rude’. The group was ‘lined up along a hugely long table in the cabinet room’, and when Keating walked in he pointed at each representative saying, ‘Don’t like you. Don’t like you. Don’t know who you are. Don’t like you. She’s alright’ (Parlane 2010). (The last was a reference to ACF Director Patricia Caswell, formerly from the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU.)) In our interview many years later, Parlane was still amazed at such rude, unstatesmanlike behaviour saying that after all, ‘it was the prime minister of the country dealing with a major interest group’ (Parlane 2010). She saw the behaviour as a reflection of how Labor, and Keating in particular, had further hardened their attitude towards the environmental NGOs.
The polls that have been published have been for News Corp, yes. Probably part of their contract is that they don’t do polling for other media outlets. Note that word contract though – Galaxy is not owned by News Corp, as the old Newspoll was (half of it at least). But if you’d like to have your own Galaxy poll conducted, their friendly operators are awaiting your call.
There was a Queensland poll at the very start of the campaign, and a national poll shortly before it began.
There is some regularity to its Queensland federal and state polling for the Courier-Mail, but otherwise that is correct.
Galaxy has an excellent record with its national and state-level polling, and a fair one with its seat polling. If the inference is that this question is raised by the answers to the questions that preceded it, I fail to see how.
DavidWH
[There are enough pro-SSM Liberal MP’s to ensure SSM will be legislated if given a free vote. The conservatives can try and vote it down but they just don’t have the numbers to be successful.]
So RWNJs in the LNP may vote against marriage equality if they are opposed to the idea regardless of the plebiscite result. Remind me again what we are getting for our $160M!
confessions @ #1079 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:39 pm
I expect Mal is taking notes to apply to his plebiscite. No SSM unless 97.5% of the population votes and 95% of all heterosexual voters agree to it!
davidwh @ #1063 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:29 pm
…………………………………………………
Its the stench of deceit and hypocrisy involved.
The wanton waste of a huge amount taxpayers money on a none binding plebiscite while screaming and finger pointing about waste everywhere else constantly on the other.
The pretense of giving voters the issue to decide – while being determined to stop an affirmative vote.
All from the monkeypod arseholes – yet again.
And turnbull – going along with it all as ‘part’ of the price to be PM – for a while at least.
Confessions
Talking abt people no longer here, I miss Edwina and Mod Lib and an awful troll whose name escapes me but seemed to be Queensland based as he said a lot of nasty things about Anna P .
Actually I don’t miss them at all …
Kezza:
New love is simply divine, thanks for asking. 😀
At the risk of interrupting another important and fascinating labor v greens flame war……
Has anyone else noticed that Turnbull used Morrison as an example of a RWNJ who will vote the way of the plebiscite even if a yes vote wins, the same Morrison who voted for Abbott but instructed his disciples to vote for Turnbull….My point is Morrison is doing the same thing now
Galaxy has been very good at past elections, very close,if I remember correctlythe most accurate, and their final poll was consistent with their previous polls,
Also re my previous post, yes any talk of post election ALP leadership processes is premature.
I have a black mark against Keating, although it wasn’t something he did on his own, nor do I believe it was intended. During the 80’s Keating, Hawke and Kelty with the combination of the Accord, the move to enterprise bargaining and the rationalisation of unions led to the ACTU being effectively neutered by the 90s. The ACTU used to be a major player in the political arena and now it is just a bit player with hardly any influence. The rot really set in during the time Keating was PM. Keating didn’t really have a union background and I think he thought he was beyond having to involve himself with unionists.
The only major thing the ACTU has done in at least the last 20 years is to organise the Your Rights at Work campaign in 2007. I was part of the campaign group in Stirling. I did that as a Green because it was run by the ACTU, not the ALP. The fact I was a Green wasn’t an issue for the other members of the group and there was no animosity. We all worked together as a team. I had worked in industrial relations for many years and appreciated the need to stand up against WorkChoices and to protect the role of unions.
I was disgusted and I believe so were many others that the efforts co-ordinated by the ACTU were not properly acknowledged by Rudd and Gillard. The revised legislation they introduced was in many ways just WorkChoices lite.
Rudd and Gillard did nothing to bring the ACTU back into having a significant role in supporting the Labor govt. They were too afraid of being tainted by association with “the big bad union” image. Rudd was never a union person and Gillard only worked for the AWU as a lawyer
I hope that when Shorten is PM he will have the courage to welcome the ACTU back into the Labor tent.
I was a Labor supporter/voter for 40 years but am now firmly in the Green camp. I don’t hate Labor and I hope that Labor wins the election. If I say I am a New Internationalist subscriber you might get an idea where my political views stand and the current Labor party clings too much to the centre for my liking.
It should be a matter of concern to Labor that 2 out of 3 voters are not buying what Labor is offering as their first choice. So what are they going to do about it?
Turnbull the weakest leader of the Libs since Downer.
Mal doesn’t care about the plebiscite. He instigated it as a sop to his party’s right wing. If it fails then whatever. He’ll be moving on.
Davidwh
That’s good to hear. The grandparenting, that is.
Not so good, the “fair” bit. Are you unwell?
WILLIAM – Really? You have no idea how many seat-level polls Galaxy does that News Corpse doesn’t bother to publish, or what instructions News Corpse gives Galaxy about which seats to poll and when. I’m not criticising Galaxy at all. It just does its job. But, seriously, News Corpse is hardly an impartial organ. In fact, it has a huge hard-on for the LNP. Thus I just don’t see how Galaxy polling (if the above is correct) once it has been filtered through News Corpse is any better than the teacher’s union commissioning ReachTel. Indeed, I would have thought it is worse.
Rossmcg:
In some small way I miss Mod Lib. I’d have loved to see his defence of MT such that it was when he wasn’t Lib leader now that he is. Seeing as MT is an abject failure as PM I’m guessing that’s why Mod disappeared rather than try to defend the indefensible.
Fess
[New love is simply divine]
Chuckle, thought you’d been a bit forgetful lately.