The latest weekly ReachTEL campaign poll for the Seven Network has two-party preferred unchanged at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. However, the Coalition is down 1.1% on the primary vote to 42.4% on forced response primary votes, with Labor up 0.2% to the Greens up 1.3% to 10.5%, translating into a 1% shift to Labor if preference flows from the previous election are applied. The failure of this to translate into movement on the headline two-party result is down to a more conventional looking respondent-allocated preference result this week – and perhaps also to the fact that ReachTEL has dropped the Nick Xenophon Team from its list of options outside of South Australia, in recognition of the fact that it won’t be fielding lower house candidates anywhere else (correction – it does have a few candidates here and there). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull records a tick upwards, from 27.4% to 33.5% on the combined very good plus good rating and from 36.3% to 33.3% on poor plus very poor, while Bill Shorten also improves, from 29.6% to 30.7% favourable and 39.7% to 37.8% unfavourable. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is slightly improved, from 57.6-42.4 to 58.4-41.6.
This week’s regular ReachTEL marginal seat campaign poll for Seven is from Cowper, and it provides more evidence of Rob Oakeshott being highly competitive in his bid to unseat Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. The primary votes are Nationals 42.2% (53.9% at the 2013 election post-redistribution), Rob Oakeshott 32.1%, Labor 11.1% (23.6% in 2013) and Greens 8.4% (10.9% in 2013). Based on a 72.7-27.3 respondent-allocated preference flow to Oakeshott, this translated into a two-party preferred result of 50-50.
We’ve also got marginal seat polling galore today courtesy of the News Corp tabloids, with Galaxy polling conducted for its Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide papers, and ReachTEL going into the field for The Mercury in every seat in Tasmania. The Galaxy polls produce an average swing to Labor of around 2%, and are thus mostly disappointing for them, but the swing in the ReachTEL poll is closer to 3%, which in the Tasmanian context puts three seats on edge. Starting with the Galaxy polls, which surveyed slightly more than 500 respondents per electorate:
• The Daily Telegraph has polls of six Liberal-held marginals in New South Wales, showing every one going down to the wire, with the Liberals fortuitously poking their nose in front in every case but one. Two-party results are 52-48 in Banks (0.5% swing to Labor) and Reid (2.2% swing to Labor), 51-49 in Dobell (1.4% swing to Liberal), Gilmore (3.0% swing to Labor) and Lindsay (2.0% swing to Labor) and 50-50 in Macarthur (3.3% swing to Labor).
• The Herald Sun’s numbers suggest a status quo result across two Liberal-held and two Labor-held seats. The Liberals lead 53-47 in both Corangamite (0.9% swing to Labor) and Dunkley (2.6% swing to Labor), and Labor leads 52-48 in both Bruce (0.2% swing to Labor) and McEwen (1.8% swing to Labor).
• The Courier-Mail reports Labor leads of 54-46 in Petrie (4.5% swing to Labor) and 51-49 in Capricornia (1.8% swing to Labor), Liberal National Party leads of 52-48 in Brisbane (2.3% swing to Labor) and 53-47 in Longman (3.9% swing to Labor), and a 58-42 lead for Bob Katter in Kennedy (5.8% swing to Katter). Also polled was the Labor-held seat of Griffith, where Labor has reportedly been worried, but the poll records a 53-47 result in favour of Labor Terri Butler, unchanged on Kevin Rudd’s winning margin in the seat at the 2013 election.
• The Advertiser reports results of 50-50 in Hindmarsh (1.9% swing to Labor) and 53-47 to the Liberals in Boothby (4.1% swing to Labor). The Nick Xenophon Team was third in both seats, on 19% in Boothby and 16% in Hindmarsh.
ReachTEL’s Tasmanian polls bring better news for Labor, finding them leading in one of the three Liberal-held marginals and dead level in the other two. Denison and Franklin look set to remain with Andrew Wilkie and Labor’s Julie Collins respectively. The polls were conducted last night and have slightly smaller samples than we’ve been used to seeing from ReachTEL, presumably because Tasmania’s electorates themselves have only about three-quarters of those on the mainland. The results:
Bass (Liberal 4.0%): Nothing in it on two-party preferred, from forced preference primary votes of Liberal 42.6% (47.8% last election, 46.2% last poll) Labor 33.4% (34.6% last election, 36.0% last poll) and Greens 10.4% (7.9% last election, 9.7% last poll). The result on previous election preferences would be 51.2-48.8 in favour of Liberal. Sample: 538.
Braddon (Liberal 2.6%): Another tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Liberal 42.7% (46.9% last election, 46.4% last poll), Labor 37.9% (37.6% last election, 34.4% last poll) and Greens 8.8% (5.2% last election, 6.6% last poll). Labor has the edge on previous election preferences, at 51.0-49.0. Sample: 566.
Denison (Independent 8.9% versus Liberal): Andrew Wilkie has 34.5% of the primary vote (38.1% at the election, 37.3% last poll), the Liberals are second with 29.5% (23.2% last election, 27.3% last poll), Labor is third on 24.5% (24.8% last election, 22.1% last poll) and the Greens are on 8.7% (7.9% last election, 13.3% last poll). ReachTEL has a 63-35 two-candidate result for Wilkie versus the Labor candidate, but the final count would in fact be between Wilkie and the Liberal, not that it would make much difference to the result. Sample: 552.
Franklin (Labor 5.1%): Labor leads 59-41 from primary votes of Labor 37.1% (39.9% last election, 40.7% last poll), Liberal 37.6% (38.7% last election, 34.3 last poll) and Greens 18.3% (12.2% last election, 15.9% last poll). On previous election preferences, the result is 56.7-43.3. Sample: 550.
Lyons (Liberal 1.2%): Labor has a commanding lead of 55-45 in what has generally been reckoned its likeliest Tasmanian gain, from primary votes of Liberal 40.4% (44.4% last election, 45.8% last poll), Labor 35.2% (36.8% last election, 29.2% last poll) and Greens 11.8% (8.3% last election, 13.3% last poll). The result is a fair bit narrower on previous election preferences, at 51.1-48.9. Sample: 540.
Now here’s the latest BludgerTrack update, inclusive of the ReachTEL national result and (for state breakdown purposes) its Tasmanian polls:
Does anyone have a link to a page showing how comments can be styled?
Incidentally, I met couple of G-leaning voters today. They are attracted to Anne. She will likely take votes away from the G candidate, whoever that is. These voters certainly do not buy the Labor=Liberal theme promulgated by the Gs. They are likely to vote Labor on the strength of the candidate and on Labor’s environmental, renewable energy and science budget credentials.
Gina funds Barnaby …
The TCT, the best government money can buy.
Heard 3 separate 5AA radio news bulletins today – all 3 stated “Malcolm Turnbull has assured the nation that Australia’s economy is shielded from the worst of the global effects of Brexit, and a safe pair of hands is the best way forward”.
Channel 7 News – “The Prime Minister has urged Australian’s not to change the government amid the global economic chaos as a result of Britain’s EU Referendum”.
Channel 9 – “In a surefire boost for the Government, leading AMP economists suggest that economic management will become the nation’s number one issue in the final week of the campaign. On the back of billions of dollars being wiped from global stockmarkets, Malcolm Turnbull has reassured voters that our economy would be cushioned if they are re-elected”.
They’ll ride this hard all the way until next Saturday. Medicare is off the table. Time to go hard on Morrison, and Turnbull’s $50bn tax cuts. Relentlessly.
ratsak @ #900 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 4:58 pm
bravo!!!!!!
Briefly
that is good news. I sometimes worry about how TV covers complicated stories like Aly v the TCT terror squad.
As I am sure you are aware The Australian is not a big seller in Perth so going hard at Dr Aly there is hardly likely to resonate in the northern suburbs
steele blade @ #1001 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 6:52 pm
What does styled mean in this context?
Blue rinse, perm and blow dry?
Thanks Don. Always good to have local comment.
Colovic is letterboxing parts of the seat of Adelaide trying to whip up anger about the O-Bahn extension imposing into the parklands. It’s beyond pathetic. Even though the parklands would be important to a lot of people there would have to be very few that think having a Liberal federal government would have anything to do with the issue.
Don:
My very dear departed wife loved the “Irish Blessing”. Yours with variations greatly appreciated as is your humour.
Bye
Already addressed above. Jobs Compact was the precursor to the Jobs Network and the same kind of neoliberal scheme. Creating an unemployment industry instead of creating jobs for the unemployed. Very poor macroeconomics and incredibly cruel and wasteful.
phoenixgreen @ #823 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 3:09 pm
The term “progressive” is only a polemical flourish. I fully expect the RWNJ to appropriate it and make it their own. There is nothing even slightly “progressive” about the Gs. Fatuous, yes. Disingenuous, yes. Hallucinating, yes. Delinquent, oh yes, very much so.
Murdoch’s effect on Australian elections
In the Brexit coverage, a blogger on The Guardian website raised the possibility that Liverpool (UK) voted Remain against the general trend in England outside London because Murdoch’s Sun newspaper hardly sold there.
This was in the aftermath of The Sun’s coverage of the 1989 Hillsborough football crowd disaster where the Murdoch rag sensationally blamed the 96 deaths on Liverpool FC supporters.
From Wikipedia: “The front page (of The Sun) caused outrage in Liverpool where the paper lost more than three-quarters of its estimated 55,000 daily sales and still sells poorly in the city more than 25 years later (around 12,000). It is unavailable in many parts of the city, as many newsagents refuse to stock it.”
Worth thinking about this as a proxy for Murdoch’s effect on Australian electors’ behaviour. In Liverpool UK , although people may have substituted the Daily Mail for the Sun, they may have historic cause to be more sceptical than most about tabloid drivel.
Like another poster way back in this thread, I regard Rupert Murdoch as the most morally bankrupt public figure operating within the Anglosphere democracies. And not just “operating within” but more pertinently “manipulating”. He’ll do anything to sell his papers or Foxtel or his US TV rubbish.
If I were St Peter at the Pearly Gates when he turned up, I’d be bound to say: “Well, I have to admire your success in your endeavour to pervert everything to your own interests, but: I sentence you to Dante-cubed layers of hell and I am going to put you in the same room as your creatures Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Kevin Andrews. You will find that this is worse than eternal solitary confinement”.
Nicholas move on…..vote for the coalition and have no services funded
Nicholas & Briefly,
You are both part right and part wrong re the CES changes.
Nicholas, Hawke/ Keating did not disband the CES and replace it with The Job Network. Howard / Costello did that.
But Briefly, the move to NGOs and private service providers DID actually begin under Hawke/Keating, with the introduction of Job Clubs and Job Search. Sure, it wasn’t taken anywhere near as far as Howard took it, but they opened the door. Coupled with the introduction of Newstart it amounted to some pretty substantial changes to the old CES processes and benefits established way back in 1946, and Paved the way for Howard’s own more draconian approach.
If Labor are defeated and there is a contest after the election I think that is not necessarily a negative under the new rules of a 50% members vote. It will provide a sharp contrast to the other parties.
Shorten of course would deserve to win.
rossmcg @ #1006 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 6:59 pm
I saw her today. There was nothing but enthusiasm. She has had her first skirmish with Liberal malice and come out of it well. I think she will be a totally formidable force in Canberra.
Paul Bongiorno
6h6 hours ago
Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno
Fascinating @markgkenny is hearing the same as me.Lib conservatives plan to torpedo marriage equality no matter plebiscite result
John Reidy:
Assuming Labor remain in opposition and that Shorten contests the leadership, he would have some very strong claims for re-election.
But this is a conversation for Sunday next week. Or, in the event of a hung parliament, some time in the future.
I have met Greens at polling booths. They seem nice enough.
But the people who post here identifying as Green are, in general, turds.
I agree with Keating.
It’s easy to throw rocks from the outside.
The Greens need to get real.
Victoria:
Haha! What took the elite media so long to cotton on? An ME plebiscite was always a delaying tactic for the coalition rather than a decisive strategy by MT.
Jeez we are SO poorly served by the media in this country!
Sure Albo should challenge.
He won’t win.
Shorten has run a flawless campaign.
As I said two years ago, he is the best leader we have had since Keating.
Fess
Turnbull and co are morally bankrupt.
Victoria:
Why are the media only ‘hearing’ of this uncertainty one week out from the election, when the signs have all been there for the hollow promise it was from the get-go? Seriously, the coalition was never going to honour a plebiscite on ME. It was a sop to the Lib RWNJs to shut them up and then quietly drop it after they were re-elected. Nothing more.
fess
I think you already know the answer to that
PHodgson
the Murdoch influence in Australia is interesting.
I read during the week that the DT in Sydney is not nearly as anti-labor this year as it was in 2013 when the coverage bordered on deranged. Despite that the Labor vote held up in DT heartland, western Sydney.
More recently the Courier Mail campaigned unashamedly for Newman and we saw how that worked out.
In Melbourne the Herald Sun is running hard on the CFA dispute but if there is a good footy story around…
Adelaide I am not familiar with but in Perth he has the Sunday Times which while it runs a few RW columnists it rarely goes hard on the politics up front. The local political writer is actually one of Colin Barnett’s fiercest critics
The Australian seems to set the daily agenda for the ABC but I suspect its sales are mostly to people who want their prejudices catered for.
So does he still have to be feared? Not as he once was in my view
I have decided I now hate the Greens.
I would like to thank the Green bloggers for that.
Australian Unions
Australian Unions – Verified account @unionsaustralia
Here’s what some patients are receiving. Doctors speaking out.
If you value health, put the Liberals last. #ausvotes
Embedded image
1:49 AM – 25 Jun 2016
36 RETWEETS15 LIKES
Link to image
https://mobile.twitter.com/unionsaustralia/status/746626416922370048
Just caught a snippet of ABC news, unfortunately it was Greg Jennet’s report on the election. Not unsurprisingly the optics were very bad for Labor, with Shorten shown in the worst possible light, badly edited, sounding desperate. In contrast Turnbull and Morrison sounded measured and reassuring.
I know that a lot of this is in the editing and presentation, but Labor needs to be very careful that it doesn’t play into the hands of the spivs.
“Already addressed above. Jobs Compact was the precursor to the Jobs Network and the same kind of neoliberal scheme. Creating an unemployment industry instead of creating jobs for the unemployed. Very poor macroeconomics and incredibly cruel and wasteful.”
Funny you should say that Nicholas – I was a beneficiary of Keating’s job scheme, found meaningful work and never looked back. How old were you at the time? Six?
BK
Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 6:20 pm
If Turnbull does manage to win the election the Coalition will have an excellent chance to show that they as good at economic management as they say they are.
It won’t be easy.
Might be the best long term outcome. Hopefully will remove the illusion that the Libs are economically competent ….something they never have been very good at. They have just been lucky enough to be in power during the boom times.
Well said Hairy Nose.
Nick the dick Green is an armchair wannabe. Just like the Greens. All froth.
HaveIGotNewsForYou
HaveIGotNewsForYou – Verified account @haveigotnews
With Nigel Farage dismissing Leave’s NHS pledge and Dan Hannan saying immigration won’t fall, Britain realises it’s voted for bendy bananas.
12:39 PM – 24 Jun 2016
roger bottomley @ #1021 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 7:26 pm
…………………………………………………………
I voted last week. Took a HTV from all who offered them, wanting to have a good look at who were preferencing whom and in what order etc.
A Green Booth worker had given me her Green HTV and was next to the Labor person handing out HTV’s but Labor worker was distracted on something else.
Anyway I waited for the Labor worker to finish what she was doing and then smiled and put out my hand for a Labor HTV.
The look the green worker gave me was priceless – it ‘said’, I’ve already given you ‘instructions’ on how you should vote – why do you need a Labor HTV.
I gave the Labor lady another smile and a wink and went into the booth.
But all the party workers did seem to be getting on pretty well together. On my way out they were changing shifts and all workers were gathered around for group photos on mobile phones.
Well huzzah for you, Mr Anecdote! Shame about the hundreds of thousands of jobseekers who got nothing.
I don’t care! It’s worth the risk. I am voting for Trump to leave – he’s the weakest link!
Tom.
“Already addressed above. Jobs Compact was the precursor to the Jobs Network and the same kind of neoliberal scheme. Creating an unemployment industry instead of creating jobs for the unemployed. Very poor macroeconomics and incredibly cruel and wasteful.”
P. N. Junankar Uni of Western Sydney
“In this paper I have compared the labour market outcomes
under the Keating government’s Working Nation labour market programs with the
outcomes since the Howard government came into power. I provided a simple graphical
analysis to compare unemployment and long term unemployment of males and females
separately and then of long term unemployed youths (15-24 year olds). Even though the
economy was going through an unprecedented run of economic growth (equally shared
by both governments), the unemployed and long term unemployed have not benefited
from this growth as much as under the Keating government’s Working Nation labour
market programs.”
Nicholas ….you really are bitter
What is the fight you are fighting????
“Well huzzah for you, Mr Anecdote! Shame about the hundreds of thousands of jobseekers who got nothing.”
Hmm actually Nicholas, its Ms Anecdote
I’d be ROFLMAO about The Green knobs here trying to get away with dissing Paul Keating’s achievements. If they weren’t so pathetic.
@Ratsak
You seem to be caught up in your own strawman there, I don’t care what party Whitlam was in: his left-wing achievements were disassembled and watered down by Hawke and Keating in their attempt to re-make the Labor party into a tory-lite outfit.
Keating didn’t represent the same ideology as Whitlam and in the same way Labor no longer represents the left. Labor tries to represent xenophobe reactionaries, social conservatives, entrenched industry lobbies and expects to be able to reconcile those constituencies in a broad coalition with humanitarians, progressive liberals and disruptive innovators. The hard truth is that if you represent the former you have to leave the latter behind, and that’s the choice Labor made and continues to make in its futile pursuit of a self-contradictory coalition.
That means the Greens shouldn’t, can’t and won’t try to replace or replicate today’s Labor, because Labor represents an entirely different kind of voter. And in the same way, Labor is trying in vain to hold on to voters it shouldn’t, can’t and won’t represent who are turning to more accurate representation with the Greens. Neither the Greens nor Labor are capable of holding both groups of voters at the same time, they’re just different constituencies with different, contradictory demands.
TLDR: The voter coalition Labor imagines for itself is impossible to reconcile. The Greens are a natural consequence of Labor’s strategic decision not to represent the left anymore. The progressive vote is only split between those who demand their own representation, who vote Green, and those still in denial about the doomed Labor voter coalition.
Nicholas, you really are a dick.
Piss off.
A friend of mine on Facebook just went to Shorten’s townhall meeting in Longman……said it was great, a big crowd there too.
Do wonder, Nicholas, why you made the assumption I was male?
Nicholas – Keating saved us from Hewson’s Fightback in 1993, that alone makes him a legend
Out of curiosity, why does anyone even bother to mention Galaxy polls. As I understand it, Galaxy Research is owned by News Corpse (?), the polls are only selective seat-level polls and are published on an infrequent basis with no discernible pattern. On that basis, they are not independent and therefore meaningless.
Briefly
the point I was making was that prosperity does not equal tolerance. A rich nation is not necessarily a non-racist nation – which was Nicholas’ claim.
evan parsons @ #1047 Saturday, June 25, 2016 at 8:10 pm
Something of a pyrrhic victory given that Howard implemented it all and worse from 1996 onwards.