The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:
Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.
Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.
Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.
Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.
Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.
Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.
Elsewhere:
• James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.
• The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.
• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.
BBC saying article 50? means teh UK remains intact the EU until the UK makes formal declaration to leave, then it’s up to the EU to outline the conditions it will require for UK interaction with the EU… without negotiations.
JimmyDoyle “Just for a start, the European banks will exit London.”
Why?
The plebiscite’s outcome will be that
“every emotion (is) will be exploited by the right to thwart rational no brainer outcomes.”
Just heard a very naive Morrison say that business will basically save us from any fall out. They’ll be pulling their heads in so fast it won’t be funny.
That was exactly why ALP started stimulus during GFC … business went into hiding when markets plummetted.
The breakup of the UK illustrated.
K17 Standby for recriminations and finger pointing plus squealing from Brussels and the French
Kevjohnno – tax implications from falling outside European free-trade area:
http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/goldman-sachs-exec-warns-european-banks-will-quit-london-if-uk-leaves-eu/
Brexit a huge finger to the British establishment by the ‘great unwashed’..
..I didn’t think it would happen ..as an expat Northerner (Manchester), I’m very pleased it has 🙂
David Cameron, if he remains in office, will next see his counterparts at a European Council summit on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
The deal, struck after months of negotiation last summer, has evaporated under a ‘self-destruct’ clause.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu-what-happens-now-that-brexit-is-a/
He will be under intense pressure to activate Article 50 and commence exit negotiations. Leaders do not want to be drawn into months and years of haggling over Britain’s status: “Out is out,” Jean-Claude Juncker said on Wednesday.
the brexit is remarkable in that Remain lost even though it had bi-partisan support from the leaders of both main parties. BUT the murdoch media went hard in Leave because Rupe thinks the EU are socialists who stop him imposing his far right agenda in the english speaking world. I hope this backfires by creating a pool of angry unemployed who vote in Corbyn as well as seeing scotland leave the union and become a socialist republic within the EU.
lizzie @ #1953 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 3:46 pm
Yes Lizzie. It was sarcasm. But with Twitter’s limitations there is always the risk to sound straight when it is anything but.
Jenauthor ..I heard the that drivel from Morrison. If they get back in they will implement their stupid contractionary policies just as big business will be pulling in their horns. We will undoubtedly need Govt stimulus ..we will get none of that, but rather austerity …leading to inevitable recession!!
JD
That article on the Banks is 3 yrs old.
The momentum the ALP had with medicare might be snuffed out by Brexit.
Mal’s Tampa.
Markjs
I think they actually want a recession – big business ultimately profits while the rest of the populace goes backward
Brexit has apparently inspired (or re-invigorated) Texit:
[‘Why not Texit?’: Texas nationalists look to the Brexit vote for inspiration
Daniel Miller and others draw parallels with what they call Britain’s ill-suited relationship with Europe and frustration in Lone Star state with US government]
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/19/texas-secession-movement-brexit-eu-referendum
Is anyone in WA still promoting Wexit?
<a href
CTar1 – so it is, apologies. This one is from the last few hours:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/23d576b0-386a-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html#axzz4CTQ35a1v
I’m going to have to downgrade my successful prediction %. 😥
The polls were wrong again. The shift back to status quo didn’t happen in the last week. I’m getting worried about my hung parliament prediction as well.
What’s up with Cornwall? It still hasn’t declared. Last one to do so.
Another article from a few days ago:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/banks-likely-to-move-some-operations-from-london-after-brexit-a-1098633.html
Don’t get me wrong, I think leaving the EU could be good in the long-run – it is an un-democratic and neoliberal organisation. But the UK can’t pretend there won’t be repercussions in the short-term.
This is the new face of England
Dog! “Texit?” “Wexit?” —–exit must be the new —–gate.
Sceptic.
That’s what worries me. That boofhead AND Boris J. Sheesh.
Lizzie,
I think you have misinterpreted Bonjiorno’s tweet, as I explained in my 3:34pm
Pithicus,
This is a big opportunity for labor to present its economic case for election to government.
The last week of the campaign was always going to be about economic management with scrutiny of the labor costings.
Now is their chance to put forward a clear difference and prosecute their case for putting Australians first ahead of big business.
Shorten and Bowen now have the stage. Let them prosecute the case.
And they will.
Cheers.
JD
Trading the Euro will be a problem for them.
But realistically the difficulty of colluding from Frankfurt or Berlin is a real barrier. Not as easy as a quick ‘accidental’ meeting at Bank Tube Station.
In the fallout of Brexit, expect rampant “economic stability!” rhetoric from the LNP and their trumpeters. “Britain’s exit from the EU has created instability in the global economy – do not risk a change to Labor” will be the mantra for the next 7 days. Every single minute. Have a feeling it may work, too…
Well, if I had any money worth spending, I’d buying Australian shares at the moment. When the investment herd runs thataway, it’s usually best to run thisaway.
Re WAxit (you couldn’t put an e in that) if at first you don’t secede try try again.
[This is the new face of England]
One should be careful what you wish for….
….and even more careful in what you take credit for.
Allan
They’re country people so they’ll take their time.
I fail to see how this can be described as ‘Mal’s Tampa’.
If anyone thinks Brexit will be as much of an influence on the voters as Medicare they are dreaming.
Most Aussies will go ‘oh the Poms left something or rather’ and watch the footy tonight. I’m tipping Penrith for the win.
At its most simple level Germany & France are wedded to European unity so never to repeat the suffering of WW2 , it’s not in their intrest to make anything easy for the UK.
It could get very ugly , already talk of the U.K. losing its AAA rating, Governor or of the Bank of England to make statement shortly
I bet the Greeks are cheering
So when does the forecast WWIII start?
Exit not unprecedented
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_Treaty
JimmyDoyle I am not sure Cameron resigning immediately would be a good thing, surely there needs to be some certainty in government to try and stabilise the markets. Then he can go.
Lindsay Ross
[I fail to see how this can be described as ‘Mal’s Tampa’.
If anyone thinks Brexit will be as much of an influence on the voters as Medicare they are dreaming.
Most Aussies will go ‘oh the Poms left something or rather’ and watch the footy tonight. I’m tipping Penrith for the win.]
I disagree. This will assist the Coalition.
CTar1 – lol you may have a point.
simon katich @ #1950 Friday, June 24, 2016 at 3:44 pm
Now that the political power of the Catholic Church has been broken in the Republic, I can see it as a possibility.
Edi_Mahin – Cameron’s credibility is utterly destroyed. His hours/days as Prime Minister are numbered.
I know the focus is in brexit, but does anyone know about this?
Tom McIlroy
7h7 hours ago
Tom McIlroy @TomMcIlroy
Liberal Helen Kroger agrees the government wants to privatise Medicare payments – “no question it needs to be organised more efficiently”
LR – Totally right. And Shorten looks a lot more calm and relaxed than flustered Mal.
VICTORIA – At least someone’s sticking up for the donors.
There is already muddled messages coming from the government about Brexit. Any advantage they may perceive will be swiftly squandered.
UK Exporters just got a massive competitive boost.
Scotland had their Referendum already and won’t get another chance anytime soon.
Sinn Fein are a minority rump and their calls will be ignored.
Doyley
The Alp have performed flawlessly so far, so they might just pull it off.
And being the GFC saviors is a plus.
No Teaser tweet from Mark Riley on tonight’s ReachTel yet. I’ll take that as a good sign for the ALP.
IMO Mark & Ch7 news have been a bit desperately pro Turnbull this week.
What is David Cameron going to do is the big question
All those who think this could be Mal’s Tampa need to consider the following:
1. It was not the Tampa that helped Mal, but Howard’s response to it.
2. It was reinforced by the events of 11 September 2001
3. Brexit is not a matter that requires an immediate emergency response (or indeed any response) from the Australian government.
4. Most importantly, as a leader Turnbull is not John Howard’s bootlace. And I think Howard was a pretty ordinary leader.