The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:
Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.
Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.
Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.
Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.
Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.
Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.
Elsewhere:
• James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.
• The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.
• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.
Greens Homeless Services Action Plan: http://greens.org.au/sites/greens.org.au/files/2016-05%20Greens%20homelessness%20services%20boost%20initiative.pdf
I’d love to know what the Liberals think they will achieve with the CFA astroturfing? Talk about winning McEwen went west after their candidate went Jaime Diaz on them. The idea that Maklin is in any doubt is crazy talk. I suppose it’s to try and hang onto Henderson, but the Liberals have much bigger problems than Victoria.
It really feels like they are writing off SA and WA and trying to hold the last line of defence before it becomes a rout. If they were winning as well as they were trying to con everyone last week I think we would be seeing a very different campaign from them with a lot less grabbing at desperate State issues in a State that is likely to see the smallest change in seats.
EM
Yes you are because you ignored the state federal divide and the words increase supply
Guytaur please withdraw your FALSE allegation that I am trolling.
Gt
😆 :derision:
EM
Well admit you ignored those words and thus your response was wrong and I will say that yes you are not trolling.
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
I AM NOT TROLLING
This bad polling is dreadful for Malcolm because a lot of voters may well decide that if they are only going to get a wounded Malcolm they may as well knock him off and start fresh with Labor. They wanted Malcolm to be the magnificent front-runner who won decisively and then tacked to the left and provided stable government. It is now obvious that is a dream. And wait till Tony turns up to the Liberal launch like Banquo’s ghost. Too much fun. Ta, ta, Turnbull.
CT
Deride as much as you like. I was pointing out a difference in the branding of a political party
RATSAK – Also be interesting to see if hijacking a state issue might piss off a lot of voters.
RDN can GAGF
Well I can rest my case. Now thats proven I can ignore EM in future.
Guytaur, what I wrote came from the heart, and you are a FUCKHEAD. You are the heart Labor party.
ratsak
Your view is going to have zero effect on how RDN is going to campaign. Just as mine is.
Theres truth for you.
Briefly..
I’m looking forward to seeing if Di Natale’s strategy of openly attacking the ALP & largely running dead on the LNP with their plethora of regressive & anti- environment policies lifts their vote from the miserable 8.6% they got in 2013..
heartless Labor party
guytaur @ #142 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 10:03 am
Every time this is said of a politician the listener will hear the opposite meaning: “So-and-so is a liar…”
When T says “Believe me”, voters will hear him saying “I am not believable.” When one political voice says of another “You are lying”, rejectionist voters are returned to their default view, which is that all politicians lie all the time. They will respond by voting “other” and, two times in three, directing their prefs against the incumbent government.
DiN is making a bad situation worse as far as the Gs are concerned. He has just reminded them he is liar too.
briefly jumps on the Green bashing wagon again .
I’d like to be a fly on the wall in negotiations between Mal and Xen whose top priority is getting rid of gambling.
It’d be way worse than the Gillard – Wilkie stoush.
No gambling would bring down all state govts.
jen
I am sure Senator X knows that and would unlike Wilkie go far a phased out option over time.
However I do agree that he LNP are totally captive of the vested interests
In the “West Australian” today was some evidence that desperate times for the Liberals require desperate measures. Justice Minister, Michael Keenan (Stirling) whilst supporting Luke Simpkins (Cowan) “launched an extraordinary attack on Anne Ally, Labor’s candidate …. in Cowan ….. suggesting she intervened in the trial of radical preacher Junaid Thorne to have his jail term reduced.”
Aly said that what she did was to make a submission to a NSW sentencing hearing for Thorne and his co -accused that they might be candidates for a deradicalization program which was funded by the AG Department.
Keenan is a nasty piece of work and hopefully the swing here in W.A might catch up with him and at the very least put him under pressure to hang onto his seat
Good morning all,
Bill Shorten gas spent most of his working life knee deep in industrial disputes. To think he would not have his finger on the pulse re the CFA dispute is just not realistic. Bill knows what he is doing and the labor campaign team knows what it is doing.
Behind the scenes a lot would be going on and I would think this issue has a few more twists and turns to go before Election Day. Labor would not just have it in the too hard basket. It would not surprise me if a few developments start to surface in the next few days.
Bill Shorten is a union man through and through who has survived and thrived in the world of union negotiations and workplace resolution. Turnbull is a light weight being poorly advised and blinded by the scent of a easy victory .
Remember Goodwin and the poor judgement of Turnbull then.
Cheers.
K17 I’m sure in Malcolm’s mind anything is preferable to talking about Medicare, but my gut tells me he’s in catch 22 on that. The more he avoids the issue the more deeply it bites, the more he talks about it, same deal.
In short I think Malcolm’s screwed and he probably knows it.
EDI – are you 5 years old? Seriously?
JENAUTHOR – Xen’s major priority will be pork and crackling (with lashings of apple sauce) for SA. That would be hysterical if he had a NSW senator as well!. But how could a dreadfully wounded Malcolm offer Xen anything, particularly with Monkey Pod at the other end of the table? It a menage a trois that just one work because one party will be impotent and another will be kinky as hell.
edi_mahin @ #163 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 10:12 am
Please don’t mistake G for a Labor figure. He is anything but…
Jenauthor, relying on gambling means the state governments are relying on the suffering of people they are meant to be serving. That is a total failure of their responsibilities.
Same with things like the tax on cigarettes which should be banned instead of being used to make money.
RATSAK – Right now, Malcolm just wants someone to shoot him.
Sorry Briefly but it is Labor’s policies that make them heartless. They show no compassion to refugees, instead their policy is to ship them offshore to be detained.
Guytaur
I don’t think that’s relevant outside the metro area, where volunteers are all there is.
If anyone is wondering why Julie Bishop has been looking so down-cast it’s because she knows that, after the election, she is going to be handed the boobie prize and she is realistic enough to know she is just not up to the job. I’d be depressed too, if I was her.
Banning cigarettes would just create a huge new industry for organised crime. That’s all that prohibition does.
Jenauthor I am a 38 year old male, from the seat of Kingston, SA.
lizzie
The dispute is about shared paid volunteer areas.
Why is Malcolm shouting?
It makes him sound desperate, regardless of what he is actually saying.
guytaur @ #168 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 10:13 am
Not at all…..merely trying to help a G in political distress, Guytaur…There’s no doubt that DiN has reduced his credit with the rejectionist cohort another notch or two even if he’s sung sweetly to the LNP and the Gs. These groups are largely mutually repelling.
Turnbull just announced he’s gone. His opening salvo was “People are saying it’s all over!”
TPOF, so instead allow something to be sold which is proven to cause cancer and cost the health system lots of money. Governments are killing Australians because they want the tax money from cigarettes.
tpof @ #185 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 10:20 am
‘cos he’s nervous…adrenaline levels sky high…
TPOF
Shouty Turnbull is desperate Turnbull.
BOATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Very scared by Reachetl polling confirming internal polling
Turnbull on 24:
“Can I just say” he’s sounding frantic.
Guytaur
I know that, but AFAIK these are in the outer metro areas which have comparatively recently been developed into suburbs.
edi_mahin @ #179 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 10:18 am
Dear, oh dear. You should direct your complaint to the Liberal Party. And you should not make the mistake of supposing that G is a Labor voice. He’s not.
Boats has so much to do with manufacturing.
Now Turnbull dismissing question as hypothetical about Senate 😆
Well Edi – your squealing posts sound like a 5YO.
Humans gamble – they’ll always gamble – better to have it legal and taxed so some good can come of it otherwise you have backroom bookies and Fantan parlours.
Did you know that the ENTIRE Hong Kong medical system is financed by state run Horse Racing?
People will always smoke and drink. You make these things illegal, you get worse organised crime, like we have with drugs and esp ice right now.
Your statements are naive
moksha @ #85 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 8:58 am
No, it is simply not there.
But since you can see it and I can’t, the most likely cause is some sort of interaction between cccp and the blog software.
Musrum?
lizzie
my point remains. voters will side with paid workers against unpaid workers unless given very certain reasons to do so. The CFA scare campaign has not done that.
Briefly, the Liberal Party, the Labor Party, the policy on refugees and rejecting boats is exactly the same. That is what Bill Shorten has said.
I wouldnt put too much faith in the polls , I was polled three times and each time picked a minor party and preferenced lib/nat and then no more calls, funny that.