Another electorate polling round-up

A brace of union-commissioned marginal seat polls provide much better news for Labor, while insider accounts of the state of play feature reams of seats that could go either way.

The New South Wales Teachers Federation has produced the most intriguing set of marginal seat poll numbers of the campaign so far, showing Labor headed for victory in six crucial seats in New South Wales. The polls were conducted on Monday by ReachTEL, and target the same electorates as an earlier round of polling for the union on April 19. Five of the six results record movement to Labor since the earlier poll:

Dobell (Labor 0.2%): A poll of 616 respondents credits Labor’s Emma McBride with a lead of 53-47, up from 51-49 in April. The forced preference primary vote results are Labor 39.6%, Liberal 36.6%, Greens 7.8% and others 16.0%. On previous election preferences, Labor’s lead would be still greater, at 54.7-45.3. Karen McNamara won the Central Coast seat for the Liberals in 2013 by 0.7%, but the redistribution has left it with a notional Labor margin of 0.2%. Polls earlier in the campaign showed very little in it: a ReachTEL poll for the Fairfax papers on June 9 had it at 51-49 to Labor, and a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had it at 50-50.

Lindsay (Liberal 3.0%): Four earlier polls, including two from ReachTEL and two from Newspoll/Galaxy, showed the Liberals leading in the outer western Sydney seat, but the NSWTF’s poll of 610 respondents has Labor’s Emma Husar with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Fiona Scott. Primary votes are Labor 39.9%, Liberal 34.5%, Greens 3.9% and others 21.6%. On previous election preferences, Husar’s lead is 54.6-45.6. Scott led 53-47 in a Newspoll on June 14, 51-48 in a ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13, 54-46 in a ReachTEL for Fairfax on June 9, and 54-46 in a Galaxy poll for the News Corp tabloids on 54-46.

Macquarie (Liberal 3.3%): The poll of 636 respondents has Labor candidate Susan Templeman with a 54-46 lead over Liberal member Louise Markus in the western Sydney hinterland electorate, from primary votes of Labor 38.9%, Liberal 38.9% and Greens 12.1%. On previous election preferences, Templeman’s two-party lead is 55.0-45.0.

Eden-Monaro (Liberal 2.9%): In a poll of 636 respondents in the famous bellwether electorate in the state’s south-eastern corner, Labor’s Mike Kelly has a commanding lead of 55-45, or 54.0-46.0 on previous election preferences. Primary votes are Liberal 40.4%, Labor 37.5%, Greens 14.8% and others 7.3%. A similar poll for the Australian Education Union on June 18 produced much the same result.

Gilmore (Liberal 3.8%): A poll of 632 respondents in the southern New South Wales seat, which was last held by Labor in 1996, has Labor’s Fiona Phillips leading Liberal member Ann Sudmalis by 53-47. Primary votes are Liberal 39.3%, Labor 37.0% and Greens 12.5%. The result on previous election preferences is much the same (52.7-47.3). A poll by Galaxy for the News Corp tabloids on May 11 had the Liberals ahead 51-49.

Page (Nationals 3.1%): A poll of 647 respondents has Labor’s Janelle Saffin leading 54-46 in the seat she lost to Nationals member Kevin Hogan in 2013, from primary votes of Nationals 39.1%, Labor 36.6% and Greens 15.4%. On previous election preferences, the two-party difference is 53.3-46.7. A ReachTEL poll for the Australian Education Union on June 13 had Saffin leading 52-48.

Elsewhere:

• James Massola of Fairfax offers an account of the state of play based on discussion with “more than a dozen Labor strategists, officials, MPs and campaign workers across every state of Australia on Wednesday – as well as Liberal and National party strategists”. This suggests Labor has 66 seats pencilled in, with a good deal many more not being written off, and a hung parliament being well within the range of possibilities.

• The West Australian reports Labor polling “has picked up substantial swings against the coalition in Burt, Cowan, Swan and in the safe Liberal seat of Pearce, held by Cabinet minister Christian Porter”. Laurie Oakes related on the weekend that Labor had detected a 9% swing in Pearce, where Porter’s margin is 9.3%, and I gave the pot a further stir in a paywalled WA situation report in Crikey yesterday.

• According to Sharri Markson of The Australian, polling for the Nationals confirms the findings of a ReachTEL poll for GetUp! on June 13 in showing independent Rob Oakeshott on over 20% of the primary vote, leaving him “neck and neck” with Nationals member Luke Hartsuyker after preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,229 comments on “Another electorate polling round-up”

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  1. TPOF

    I am sure as the night follows day, that if Turnbull is re elected, he will drop this issue immediately. He doesnt give a shit about the great unwashed.

  3. I had thought about that

    Rachel Baker retweeted
    The Big Ship
    12h12 hours ago
    The Big Ship ‏@TheBigShip
    If the ReachTEL marginal seat polls are to be believed, the surge to Labor is on. A major AFP Gestapo ‘TERRORIST’ incident is nigh! #auspol

  4. TPOF,
    Andrews had a commentary piece on the The Age site a couple of days ago explaining the dispute and how it is being misrepresented.
    It sank without a trace within a few hours of being posted.

  5. Lizzie-
    Thanks for the heads up on that specialist given the flick after speaking up about the detention centre’s. This issue is the key issue that angers me the most about this Government and want to see them turfed out. What humane Govt is going to come up with The Border Force Act which

    ‘gives the Australian government the power to jail, for up to two years, anybody employed by the department or its contractors who speaks publicly about conditions inside the offshore detention regime, including doctors advocating for better healthcare, or other workers exposing sexual and physical abuse of detainees.’

    I am disgusted with this Coalition Government and Dutton in particular.

  6. victoria @ #43 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 7:59 am

    Morning all
    First up on the ABC radio news, is that Turnbull will be campaigning with SHenderson in Corangamite. He will be meeting with angry CFA volunteers today.
    Faine who starts his show at 8.30 gave an overview of politics to be discussed. He said the liberals and Herald Sun are going hard on the CFA stuff and Turnbull is taking advantage of same

    It’s not obvious this issue will help T with those voters who intend to vote against him. It is just this kind of political game that gets them worked up. They will see him as stirring the pot when they actually just want a Government that will govern in an orderly, reliable, consistent and effective manner. T is doing an Abbott – treating voters like they’re idiots. They will not forgive him for that.

  7. Malcontent at this mornings CFA rally… ” I wouldn’t normally make a speech like this to a voluntary organisation……. but I’m desperate & don’t have any policies”

  9. Labor is doing well.

    Thats a quote from Malcolm Farr when pressed by Marius Benson this morning. He then came up with all the excuses in the world like the voters are not engaged yet.

    This after voting has begun.

    This sounds familiar. Its a commentator looking for legitimate reasons not to accept the Reachtel results from NSW.

    I would respect this more with seat by seat polling if the polls were showing 50/50 with the LNP being the 51/49 when its not 50/50

    So while yes its too close to call all the momentum of change is with Labor and nothing I have heard from the commentators and LNP makes me think Labor is not doing well.

  10. DrCraigEmerson: “The boats are coming, $100 legs of lamb, Whyalla will be wiped out, shriek, shriek ⚡️” All irrefutable facts. Not a scare campaign

  11. William, your avatar/gravatar is still a ‘now you glimpse it now you don’t’ thing.

    I am reminded of a story from WWII. The Brits were training plane spotters, and they needed to be able to identify both enemy and friendly planes in just a brief glimpse, often all that was available in scattered cloud.

    They did it by flashing up very brief photos on the screen. They kept reducing the time the plane silhouette was visible, and the (male) plane spotters started to complain that there simply wasn’t enough time to recognise a plane from such a brief glimpse.

    These complaints stopped when the operator put in, in amongst the photos of planes, at the same speed, a photo of a naked woman. They had no problem identifying that!

  12. If we allow 2 Greens, 2 NXT, Wilkie, McGowan, Windsor & Oakshot as cross benchers, then there are 143 seats left to share between LNP & ALP – 72-71 anyone?

  13. Bakunin

    I don’t understand why Andrews is not defending himself more aggressively. In the Hawkey days, he would have sailed in and ‘fixed’ everything, to great acclimation. Bill seems reluctant to get involved at all. Someone really must stand up and explain better. Sarah Corangamite Henderson is simply shoring up her position.

  14. Mr Sanders could be speaking of Labor’s fight with the MSM coverage we are getting

    SenSanders: When folks stand together against a rigged system, they can forge a politics that can transform a city, a nation, and maybe the world.

  15. Boats, we are really nicer to medicare, the politically confected and liberal funded con-job around state firefighting; really a PM who has delivered nothing, stands for nothing and offers nothing.

  16. I think the impact of the CFA dispute is over rated. Suggestions for example it could lead to the loss of McKewan are fanciful, especially if you look at the Liberal candidate.
    It will of course be difficult for Labor to pick up seats in Victoria, but that was the case before the election was called and before the CFA dispute became an issue.

  17. Chris Hobson

    I think you are spot on. Don’t believe the hype is a motto to live by now in this stage of the election. This CFA is doom for Labor meme is coming with zero polling to back it up.

    As Victoria has pointed out the volunteers themselves are not impressed with the LNP on this.

    We will know the truth about the CFA thing from July 3 going onwards.

  18. don @ #61 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 8:26 am

    William, your avatar/gravatar is still a ‘now you glimpse it now you don’t’ thing.

    And when I checked the previous thread, where you linked this new thread, the gravatar there is of what looks like a painting of an ancient king complete with crown and long flowing beard.

    I like the one that appears only briefly, showing a photo of you, much better.

  19. I think Shorten is right to stay out of the CFA dispute. Mind you, it wouldn’t hurt if someone, anyone would point out how the Libs are attempting to use it for their own federal ends.

  20. bakunin @ #54 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 8:13 am

    TPOF,
    Andrews had a commentary piece on the The Age site a couple of days ago explaining the dispute and how it is being misrepresented.
    It sank without a trace within a few hours of being posted.

    It’s not about the dispute – it’s about the dishonest manipulation of an issue for political advantage that will not last beyond 2 July. In politics, arguing a reasoned case is often the surest path to disaster – more so if you are right and the other side is wrong!

  21. [FUNNYBALL
    Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 8:03 am
    I take it ReachTel questions were asked in the order they are published. The right question was asked first – primary voting intention. That way considerations of education or Gonski weren’t being primed in the minds of respondents before being asked how they’ll vote. So, they only caveat is sample size.]

    I think that the poll results also strongly represent views on Medicare, although Gonski would also be important. The NSW Teachers Federation has campaigned strongly on Gonski funding including TV ads.

  23. political_alert: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp is in Adelaide and will launch Labor’s ‘positive plan for South Australia’ at 9:45am CST #ausvotes

  26. Totally DUMPB statement from 24 reporter.. ‘Will Bill support vote for legislation on SSM plebiscite ” this after just outlining Labor policy to address it directly in parliament within 100 days.

    The ABC desperately manufacturing help for Mal

  30. Guytaur at 8.23

    Labor is doing well.

    Thats a quote from Malcolm Farr when pressed by Marius Benson this morning. He then came up with all the excuses in the world like the voters are not engaged yet.

    Interestingly, the failure of voters to ‘engage’ up to now has been my explanation of why the polls have not moved to Labor at the rate I expected. But Malcolm is paid very big bucks for his opinion and nobody wants to pay me anything for mine. Sigh.

    On the issue of a lot of voting having taken place already, I wonder how many of those early voters are actually committed and want to get voting out of the way because they know exactly who they want to vote for and are keen to register that vote. My reasoning is that a vastly disproportionate number of early voters would fall into that camp – but I have no evidence. Perhaps we need exit polls at pre-polling stations asking the people not who they voted for but the extent to which they are comfortable with their decision and when they finally decided to vote that way.

    My further reasoning, especially in this election where there are so many uncommitted who would want a plague on both houses and would not turn up at a polling booth if they didn’t have to, is that the last two weeks campaigning will really make a difference – as the way these people finally cast their vote will determine the outcome of the election and they will not be happy with their vote even after they have voted.

  32. Labor ads in SA are mainly anti-X saying you might like him but you don’t know his candidates. I haven’t seen any anti-Green or anti-Liberal ads but I don’t watch a lot of TV. The rationale escapes me as the better X polls, the more seats the Libs will lose to him.

  34. [Former prime minister Tony Abbott has taken aim at Malcolm Turnbull for saying it is fair to describe Australia’s colonisation as an invasion.

    With a week-and-a-half to go until the federal election, Mr Abbott has given a wide-ranging interview to conservative commentator Andrew Bolt, and sent a strong signal he intends to be an advocate for conservative values within the Coalition.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-23/tony-abbott-at-odds-with-malcolm-turnbull-over-invasion/7535132

  35. Don

    Scroll up to the top of the page. William’s photo is there twice, once at the top and once between his post and the comments. The photo just flashes for you because the page starts at the top and then brings you down to the comments.

  36. “A brace of union-commissioned marginal seat polls”. For consistency I expect William will preface all future Newspolls with “The Rupert Murdoch commissioned Newspoll”.

  37. Some people here seem to be ignoring the fact the LABOR Minister for Emergency Services resigned due to her disgust at Andrews. That’s what made this a big deal.

  39. Brussels warns UK ‘out is out’ as final polls give Leave camp the edge

    …officials based in the EU capital of Brussels made it clear any decision to leave would be final with Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission President, telling reporters on Thursday that “out is out”.

    …Prominent Brexiteers used Mr Juncker’s comments to once again argue that the only way for Britain to “take back control” was to vote Out.

    Describing Mr Juncker as an “unelected tinpot figure”, former Tory London mayor Boris Johnson said: “Who elected Jean-Claude Juncker to run anything in this way? Who put him in charge of us in this way?”

    “This gives the game away. If we stay in there is no prospect of any further change.

    “This is it, folks. We have been told from the horse’s mouth that any hope of further change is absolute illusion.”

    http://www.afr.com/news/world/europe/brussels-warns-uk-out-is-out-as-final-polls-give-leave-camp-the-edge-20160622-gpppuc

  41. lizzie @ #63 Thursday, June 23, 2016 at 8:26 am

    Bakunin
    I don’t understand why Andrews is not defending himself more aggressively. In the Hawkey days, he would have sailed in and ‘fixed’ everything, to great acclimation. Bill seems reluctant to get involved at all. Someone really must stand up and explain better. Sarah Corangamite Henderson is simply shoring up her position.

    Lizzie, that was Hawke as ACTU leader, not as Opposition leader in the last days of a campaign. Hawke always timed his interventions to a point in time where both parties were desperately looking for a way out that would save face and could tell their supporters they had something to show for all the pain. The way I see it, there is absolutely no entry point for Shorten that will not bring grief – especially as so much of this issue has been hyped far beyond reality by the Liberals for sleazy political purposes.

  42. Meher

    “Maybe a lot of others are now feeling the same way as I do: even if Labor’s high deficits and taxes are possibly going to hurt us personally, at least they look like they have some idea of what they are doing!”

    Congratulations Meher. You finally got to the same position where many of us who have been commenting on your comments arrived within 3 months of the 2013 election …… that the Conservos do not know what they are doing.

    All they know is that “we have a plan” and unfortunately you (and the MSM, still) accepted that the 2 bits of blue cardboard they have been waving around and spruiking about, had no pages in between them.

    After about 10 million words in 8+ weeks you’ve finally understood what more than half the country already knew

    Welcome aboard.

  44. There seems to be a strange attitude (as evinced by Mayne above) that somehow those handing out for the major parties are there by compulsion.

    The Greens and Labor are outnumbering Mayne because they have more supporters who are willing to help out.

    There’s a similar vibe in Indi – the Cathy McGowan people don’t interact (from my observations!) with those handing out for the majors. I get the feeling (which is all it is) that they see themselves as handing out because they believe in something, but that we’re all here because we’re part of teh evil party machine.

    As a result, I end up chatting with the Nats (who have always liked me).

  45. Booleanbach

    There can be no doubt the Conservos are shit scared of letting anyone put a camera and mic in front of Susan Ley.

    They know that she is in the featherweight division, and should not be running such an important department.

    I’ve been trying to coax her out on Twitter, but to no avail.

    Wonder why Catherine King doesn’t call her out. Think I’ll email CK right now.

  48. Confessions @ 8.59
    I thought this:

    We tend to think about election campaigns in binary terms. Someone wins, someone loses. Recent history tells us that election contests are not that simple. In this election contest, if the national polls are to be believed, as well as the win/loss option, we also have the prospect of a hung parliament. There’s been considerable discussion about the Labor/Green alliance, that particular hung parliament scenario, but far less focus on a minority parliament with the Coalition in command, because by and large, the prime minister has been able to hide successfully behind his slogan (and that’s all it is) that only the Coalition will deliver stable government. Imagine if you will Malcolm Turnbull governing with support from a couple of new MPs from the NXT, for example. Just let that scenario settle on your person for a minute or two.

    the most interesting part of Katharine’s assessment because it has been avoided by EVERY mainstream political commentator until now, even though I’ve banged on about it for weeks in the context of Labor doing ‘deals’ with the Greens.

    An empty government with no policies and an agenda devised by an ivory tower think tank whose members’ only contact with ordinary people is when the office cleaner turns up at the wrong time will try and run a minority government with NXT and a gaggle of country independents calling the shots. It’s the stuff of dreams for Labor.

  49. I took Myne’s “double teaming” comment to relate tho how many Liberal pre-pollers there are.

    During my pre-polling shifts there have been up to six Liberals at a time forming a pack around individual voters making it very difficult for anyone else to approach.

  50. Psyclaw @ 9.15

    I think Sussan Ley is one of the more human and humane members of the Coalition front bench, which makes her a particularly weak leak for their cynical political approach.

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