BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition

Essential Research’s latest result records the gentlest of nudges in favour of Labor, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate has gone the other way.

It’s been an oddly quiet week on the national polling front, though no doubt the coming fortnight will more than make up for it. Besides the regular weekly campaign ReachTEL poll for Seven, the only new result is the latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, out a day later than usual due to the Monday public holiday. This records Labor with a 51-49 lead, returning it to its position before a sudden two-point shift to the Coalition a fortnight ago. The primary votes are Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 4% (steady). Also featured are personal ratings, which Essential usually does on a monthly basis, but it seems to have picked up the pace to fortnightly for the campaign period. Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 40%, while Bill Shorten is steady on approval at 34%, but down four on disapproval to 40%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows slightly, from 40-27 to 40-29.

An occasional question on the parties’ attributes records positive movement since March for Labor, whose ratings are up from three to nine points on favourable indicators (the biggest gain being from 30% to 39% on “has a good team of leaders”), and lower ratings on all the negative ones, with the exception of “will promise to do anything to win votes”. The movements for the Liberals are more of a mixed bag, with both positive and negative indicators going up. The one exception is “divided”, something the Liberal Party is now deemed to be by 52% of respondents compared with 61% last time. Other results from the Essential survey include a finding of 47% approval for the superannuation changes in the budget, with disapproval at 22%.

The only other bit of poll news from the last few days has been a Greens-commissioned Lonergan Research poll from the traditionally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Higgins, where the Greens appear to be giving Kelly O’Dwyer something to think about. The Greens were on 24.2% of the forced preference primary vote, which would put them in second place for the first time, with O’Dwyer on 44.6%, Labor on 18.5% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 7.9%. O’Dwyer leads 53-47 on respondent-allocated preference. The poll had a large sample of 1118, and unlike ReachTEL’s polls was conducted over two nights, on Friday and Saturday of the weekend before last.

The BludgerTrack aggregate records a reasonably solid tick to the Coalition this week, which is mostly down to a ReachTEL result that would have come out at 52-48 in favour of the Coalition if previous election preference flows had been used, as opposed to the headline result of 50-50. BludgerTrack now shows a more plausible result in Western Australia, although it’s still on the sunny side for Labor compared with what’s coming through anecdotally and in individual seat polls. Since last week’s reading, the Coalition is up two seats in Western Australia and one in Victoria, but they’re down two in Queensland. They are also recording a favourable swing in South Australia, which possibly just shows the two-party model isn’t working there any more. It’s worth noting that the Greens have been losing steam nationally over the past few months, presumably because some of the loose anti-major party vote is being gathered up by the Nick Xenophon Team.

bludgertrack-2016-06-15

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,941 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.5-49.5 to Coalition”

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  1. ‘President of the solipsist society
    Friday, June 17, 2016 at 4:51 pm
    “You are expecting me to accept your best guess?
    Golly.”
    Glad to see you’ve given in. Next time, why not cut the crap and outright accuse the Greens of being anti-semites? Subtlety is not a weapon you’re capable of wielding.’
    Oh, sensitive about that issue are we?
    Now, let’s just see where the Greens have made a public criticism of the head of Hamas. Hamas murders its own people. Hamas’ treatment of women and of LGBTI is not nice. Hamas does not run a democracy. Hamas does not run the rule of law. Hamas makes no distinction between killing Israeli civilians and Israeli military when it fires missiles off into the wild blue yonder.
    Anything, POTSS? That is all a matter for the Greens to be silent about?
    Or is ONLY Gantz worth having a go at?
    You do get the way your picture looks, don’t you?

  2. Edi_Mahin

    I’m sorry you feel that way, but no, I don’t think there is a thumbs down button. Just don’t watch. You’ll feel calmer.

  3. This is how easy it is to get a gun in the US

    Just in case you were wanting a clearer picture of America’s love affair with guns, here’s a graph from online statistics portal Statista.

    It shows that there are more gun dealers in the US than there are supermarkets, McDonald’s and Starbucks put together.

    As The Independent observed, “there are more places to buy weapons to shoot people with than there are to feed yourself in two of the biggest chains in the world”.

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/this-is-how-easy-it-is-to-get-a-gun-in-the-us/news-story/6e66a0e65d1d9cec50717401d463bff0

  4. boerwar @ #1718 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 4:47 pm

    POTSS
    Do yourself a favour and read through the Greens Party resolutions in the Foreign Affairs section: make a list of all the countries in the world that receive some form of condemnation or criticism in all the resolutions.
    And then try to figure out why Israel gets a Guernsey but Iran, which still executes both democrats and gays, does not.

    Green social expression clearly exists but is undeveloped politically in Iran…
    https://www.opendemocracy.net/simin-fadaee/negotiating-environmentalism-in-democratizing-iran

    G-political expression certainly has a legal existence in Israel:
    The Greens (Hebrew: הירוקים‎‎, HaYerukim) is a minor political party in Israel formerly headed by Pe’er Visner. Although the party was never represented in the Knesset, it holds seats in many municipalities across Israel.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greens_(Israel)

    Pro-environment political expression in Iran should not be conflated with the Green Party:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Green_Movement

  5. DON – According to Essential, Turnbull’s popularity continues to slide. The question is when that comes home to roost on the primary vote. I strongly suspect that will occur on or before election day when voters have to throw off their inertia. This election is far from over.

  6. Edi_Mahin

    That was a polite apology, not a heartfelt one. However, I will be very sorry if the Coalition is put back into power. Australia will suffer (even more).

  7. I don’t care who wins the election, neither side can do anything good. I long for a time when a true leader will rule over Australia.

  8. president of the solipsist society @ #1679 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 4:29 pm

    Oh, are you calling for Rhiannon to be kicked out of the Greens?

    Are you calling for Bullock and de Bruyn to be kicked out of Labor?

    Joe Bullock holds no office in Labor. I think de Bruyn has also been displaced from office in the SDA….or is due to retire anytime.

    Labor has adapted. It’s good at that.

  9. The first double dissolution election in a generation will be held in a fortnight. Why don’t we try to focus on that, rather than rehashing depressing old arguments about Israel.

  10. “Edi_Mahin
    #1759 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 5:13 pm
    Will Lazarus get re-elected?”
    I would say yes based on Qld state feel only – no poll info. Don’t put your house on it.

  11. http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/6bce8427-8c5a-40de-9af5-4fd6aecc2df0/Iranian-Kurds-embrace-environmental-activism

    ranian Kurds, although economically deprived and ethnically suppressed, have not given up on environmental activism.

    In the last 30 days, volunteers planted over 20,000 oak trees in Ilam and Kermanshah forests located in the northwest of Iran. The non-governmental organization, Heeloo, based in Kermanshah, a Kurdish province in western Iran, initiated and supported the movement.

    The movement was to compensate for the fire that burned down thousands of tree in the Zagros Mountains in the summer in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces.

    The Zagros Mountains that range across the Kurdish inhabited regions of Iran, Iraq, and Turkey, have a total length of 1500 km and have been an integral part of Kurdish life, culture, and resistance.

    In addition to planting trees, Heeloo organization has been active in controlling fire in the forests and have raised funds to educate school children about the importance of environmental causes.

  12. Briefly
    That is interesting but it still does not answer the basic question of why, in their on-line policy resolutions amongst the suite of Greens policies under the heading Foreign Affairs, the Greens go to some pains to choose Israel for condemnation.
    All I am asking POTSS and Nicholas to do is to explain why the Greens have given Israel this priority when there are so many more evil nations.
    After a half a day of dodging, ducking, abuse and weaving they have come up with precisely nothing in terms of prioritising Israel for the treatment.
    Nothing.
    The Greens have some questions to answer here and they are avoiding those answers like the plague.

  13. Edi_Mahin

    I don’t care who wins the election, neither side can do anything good. I long for a time when a true leader will rule over Australia.

    OIC. You prefer a dictatorship. Do I detect a flavour of Idi Amin?

  14. And while you’re here William, what are your thoughts on “Bandwagon” versus “Underdog” when it comes to a candidate expressing confidence of a win?

    Do such expressions either help or hinder the boastful candidate’s chances, or is it zero sum? (as many hop on the bandwagon as feel sorry for the underdog or vote “Protest”)

  15. “I don’t care who wins the election, neither side can do anything good. I long for a time when a true leader will rule over Australia.”

    Oh FFS, not only are you worthless, but you are…I hesitate to add.

    If you don’t think that Labor policies on Medicare, the environment, schools, etc etc are not doing ‘any good’, I don’t know what to say to you.

    I think that at this election we have a stark choice, and if the coalition get back in you, and the rest of ‘they’re all the same’ crowd will find out what I mean. Of course by then it will be too late, but you will no doubt feel some sort of vindication for wasting your vote!

  16. Lizzie, no I don’t want a dictator. I want Jesus to return to earth and become King of the earth. Then all the wicked governments of the world will be destroyed, including the Australian government. The sooner the Australian government does not exist the better.

  17. I’ve just shown a colleague, a Liberal Party supporter, the WA Liberal’s Senate HTV and suggested he just vote 1. He’s asked what if he only numbers two boxes?

  18. Ah, but William, these depressing arguments are not about Israel.
    They are depressing observations about the true nature of the Greens.
    Now…
    The DD, I have been toying with how we are to frame a range of outcomes.
    Let’s say the Coalition slips from 96 to 81, will that be a good enough win for Turnbull?
    Let’s say the Coalition slips from 96 to 80 and the result is that the ABCC goes down. Will that be an acceptable outcome for Turnbull and his Party?
    What if the number is anywhere from 76 to 79? How would that tall?
    What if the number is less than 76 but more than Labor with the xbenchers getting a run for their money?
    And what about the Senate?
    And under what constellation of outcomes will the 1% tax cut for the Big Banks get through both the House and the Senate?

  19. Adrian
    Friday, June 17, 2016 at 4:58 pm
    Yadda, yadda ,yadda yadda ya
    The Greens are bad I tell ya

    Blather, blather, blather, blather ba
    The ALP is really shit so far

    Yep, And after the message is blurred through endless repetition, it just becomes… “ALP and GRN are shit”.
    Strange for a blog with mainly Left poster’s.

  20. boerwar @ #1767 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 5:17 pm

    I think there purity tests applied by the Fundamentalists. On the self-styled Left, this includes having the correct pro-forma line on Palestine, among other things. On the self-styled Right, the tests include pro-forma reactions on ME, the Racial Discrimination Act and refugees. They are very alike in their rituals.

  21. Vogon Poet, sarcasm does not translate very well on internet forums like this one so I rarely use it, although I did in one post earlier today.

  22. Edi_ – [take comfort in the fact there is no storage of galahs in Canberra]
    To stop them going back to their electorates?

  23. Briefly , Boerwar,
    As a Greens observer only and in no way officially because I am not an official representative, I would say the Israel Policy was devised by a group of interested persons in the Greens and it is what it is. You are probably right to point out that a comprehensive Greens Foreign Policy does not exist for all countries on the planet. Obviously at one point it was considered beneficial for the Greens to have a position on Israel.

  24. boerwar @ #1779 Friday, June 17, 2016 at 5:23 pm

    Ah, but William, these depressing arguments are not about Israel.
    They are depressing observations about the true nature of the Greens.
    Now…
    The DD, I have been toying with how we are to frame a range of outcomes.
    Let’s say the Coalition slips from 96 to 81, will that be a good enough win for Turnbull?
    Let’s say the Coalition slips from 96 to 80 and the result is that the ABCC goes down. Will that be an acceptable outcome for Turnbull and his Party?
    What if the number is anywhere from 76 to 79? How would that tall?
    What if the number is less than 76 but more than Labor with the xbenchers getting a run for their money?
    And what about the Senate?
    And under what constellation of outcomes will the 1% tax cut for the Big Banks get through both the House and the Senate?

    Quite right.

    They are, sad to say, about political praxis in inner Melbourne.

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