Highlights of week five

A mixed assortment of public holiday reading concerning the last week or so of the federal election campaign.

With nominations having closed on Friday and pre-polling opening tomorrow, there has been a frenzy of activity with preference negotiations:

• The Australian reports that Labor will not direct preferences in South Australia, and the Liberals will do likewise in South Australian seats safely held by Labor. The purpose of this is to clip the wings of the Nick Xenophon Team, and add some measure of credibility to Malcolm Turnbull’s and Bill Shorten’s insistence that they will not emerge from the election pleading for the support of cross-benchers in a hung parliament.

• In a similar spirit, Malcolm Turnbull has pulled rank on the Victorian Liberal Party organisation by announcing that the Greens will be placed behind Labor on all how-to-vote cards. This maintains a policy that was first adopted at the 2013 election, which slashed Liberal preference flows to the Greens from at least three-quarters to around a third.

• Labor’s part of this apparent bargain is that it will direct preferences to the Liberals ahead of the Nationals in the three-cornered contests of Murray in Victoria, and Durack and O’Connor in Western Australia.

News from the Victorian front:

• Daniel Andrews’ government in Victoria is at the centre of an ill-timed controversy over the state’s Country Fire Authority, which led to the resignation on Friday of his Emergency Services Minister, Jane Garrett, and the sacking of the board of the authority. At issue is a proposed enterprise agreement which would grant the United Firefighters Union powers over the management of the authority, such as it exercises over the non-volunteer Metropolitan Fire Brigade. The CFA board refused to sign the agreement on the basis that the Victorian Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission has ruled its effective bans on part-time work to be discriminatory. The issue is of heightened sensitivity in each of Victoria’s most marginal seats, since the boundary between the CFA and MFB zones runs well inside Melbourne’s suburbs, having been drawn in the distant past. Issues involving the CFA are acutely important in Corangamite, scene of the Surf Coast bushfires between Christmas and New Year; McEwen, which takes in some of the area affected by the Black Saturday bushfires of 2009; and La Trobe, which consists of urban fringe and semi-rural hinterland in Melbourne’s east. The issue is somewhat less pressing in the eastern Melbourne marginal of Deakin, but it nonetheless falls within the zone of the CFA. Corangamite, La Trobe and Deakin were the three seats won by the Liberals in 2013, and McEwen for Labor by a margin of 0.2% in the face of a 9.0% swing.

• In McEwen, however, the Liberals’ job is being complicated by their candidate. Chris Jermyn is back in the spotlight after Adam Gartrell of Fairfax provided a fascinatingly detailed account of his role in a social media project that emerged with nothing to show for $15 million in venture capital funding. The Liberal Party passed up an opportunity last weekend to disendorse Jermyn ahead of last Thursday’s nominations deadline.

• The Liberals are down a candidate in the unimportant northern Melbourne seat of Calwell, held for Labor by Maria Vamvakinou on a margin of 13.9%. This follows the resignation from the party of John Min-Chiang Hsu over a failure to declare a business interest on his preselection nomination form, namely an establishment that purports to be nothing less than the “best brothel in Frankston”. Since nominations close, Hsu will continue to be listed on the ballot paper as the Liberal candidate.

Elsewhere:

• After bowing out in Lyne at the 2013 election, Rob Oakeshott seeks to re-enter the fray in the seat of Cowper, which post-redistribution encompasses Port Macquarie, where his political career began in state parliament. Cowper is held for the Nationals by Luke Hartsuyker. Oakeshott says he would give Malcolm Turnbull “first go” at forming government if he again found himself holding the balance of power.

• Penrith councillor Marcus Cornish is running as an independent in Lindsay and directing preferences against the Liberal member, Fiona Scott. Cornish quit the Liberal Party in protest against the removal of Tony Abbott, and said Scott had “stabbed him in the back” by supporting Turnbull.

Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that Coalition internal polling has Tony Windsor’s primary vote in New England at just over 30%. The report says this would be “enough to topple the Deputy Prime Minister if preferences go Mr Windsor’s way”, but it’s difficult to say exactly how troubling the result would be for Barnaby Joyce without knowing his own primary vote.

• One parliamentarian and two candidates ran into trouble last week over Australian Defence Force guidelines against use of military uniforms in election campaigning. Andrew Hastie, who won the Canning by-election for the Liberals in September last year, refused to desist from using an image of himself in army fatigues on billboards that sold him as “not another politician”, which resulted in his dismissal this week from an army reserve unit. A similar threat has been made to Pat O’Neill, Labor’s candidate in the seat of Brisbane, and attention has been drawn to Labor candidate Mike Kelly’s use of such images in a pamphlet, which he claims to have been permissible by virtue of being “low key”. Fairfax reports that the ADF is considering asking the government to prohibit campainging in uniform under the Electoral Act.

• It has also emerged that Andrew Hastie did not declare his purchase of a home on March 27 before the dissolution of parliament in May 9, when parliamentary rules required he do so by April 24.

Pork-barrelling:

• Labor’s confidence about Herbert is said to relate to a promise made on May 10 to contribute $100 million to a 25,000 seat home stadium for the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville.

• Barnaby Joyce has been able to shore up his position in New England this week by announcing $8.5 million in funding for a sports precinct in Tamworth, followed by a promise that the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority would be relocated from Canberra to Armidale. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that the latter initiative has displeased ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja and the National Farmers’ Federation, “which fears the valuable work done by the agency will suffer because many staff won’t go”.

Phillip Coorey in the Financial Review dissects “$1.7 billion worth of relatively minor announcements” since the campaign began, including a series of major road announcements last Monday. This included $42.6 million in funding for an upgrade of the Hann Highway in north Queensland, which forms part of a direct inland route from Cairns to Melbourne, and is thus of particular interest in Warren Entsch’s electorate of Leichhardt. In Tasmania, the battleground seats of Braddon, Bass and Lyons were respectively promised roads funding worth $4.5 million, $3.0 million and $1.1 million.

Betting markets:

• Sportsbet has responded quickly to the Liberals’ preference announcement by revising the Greens’ prospects downwards in all seats where it is thought to be competitive. In Batman, the payout on a Labor win has been slashed from $2.50 to $1.15, while the Greens are out from $1.50 to $4. The Liberals are now credited with favouritism in Murray, coming in from $2 to $1.50 while the Nationals are out from $1.70 to $2.50

• More generally, there has been fairly substantial movement to the Coalition on betting markets over the past week. On the Betfair exchange, the Coalition is in from $1.34 a week ago to $1.23, or from 75.2% to 81.3% in implied win probability terms. Labor is out from $3.85 to $4.80, or from 27.0% to 22.2%. In Sportsbet individual seat markets, both parties are now on $1.87 in Page, after Labor had $1.65 to $2.15 favouritism a week ago; the Liberals are in from $1.75 to $1.50 in Deakin, while Labor is out from $2 to $2.50; Peter Dutton is in from $1.35 to $1.10 in Dickson, with Labor out from $3 to $6; and Christian Porter is in from $1.20 to $1.01 in Pearce, with Labor out from $4.20 to $12. The chart below provides a measure of three agencies’ implied win probabilities for the election overall, derived from a composite of their odds on the Coalition and Labor.

2016-06-13-betting-markets

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,118 comments on “Highlights of week five”

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  1. Guytaur
    Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 4:18 pm

    It was a bit of rhetoric. Feel free to replace Katter with any faceless RW idiot that the L-NP can easily manipulate 🙂

  2. A couple of points re betting on this election:
    1) More money on the Coalition means more people with a direct financial stake in the Coalition winning. Each one is going to be a de facto campaigner for the Coalition in whatever circle of fellow-voters they think they have a chance of influencing. This corrodes the transparency and integrity of political discussion during the campaign. How many journalists or media industry execs have placed bets in this election?
    2) Betting odds reflect people’s expectations of electoral outcomes, but these expectations are attempts to predict phenomena that are insufficiently regular in occurrence to warrant their apparent confidence. I don’t sweat too much about what betting markets indicate punters are predicting, but I do worry about the “campaign recruitment” effect I mentioned above.

  3. Paul
    Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 4:16 pm

    The Guardian Live mentions Parakeelia, and Lenore did a piece on what a piece of work Morrison is. Fairfax “broke” the Parakeelia story so expect them to go hardest (currently top political story on SMH).

  4. There it is again, that elusive concept of ‘momentum’. Certainly not with Labor at the moment I would have thought, but strangely enough, no great enthusiasm for the LNP either. Another week almost through, and this must be one of the most bizarre elections in the last 10 years as most people I come into contact with rate the election somewhere a long way down the list in their thinking. I think it was mentioned that up to 1/3 rd of the electorate will have voted by election day. Either this means they care a lot or just don’t want their Saturday stuffed up. Still there for Labor to win and the LNP to lose for mine. However, as many have pointed out, Labor need a couple more percentage points for it to happen for them.

  5. lizzie Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 4:19 pm
    I love the pic of Cormann that the SMH has chosen for this story. He’s not just touching his nose (a sign of prevarication), he’s pushing it right to one side.

    **************************************
    My mum used to say – ‘He breathes through his nose to keep from wearing out his teeth’

    Or as Peg Bundy said to Al – Besides me, who would point out that your teeth have turned the same color of yellow as your underwear and that you have more hair in your nose than on your head?

  6. Dave: the last thing turnbull wants is a party room challenge – which might come at anytime – let alone if he goes off the reservation with Captain’s picks.

    The irony being that if he did start making some Captain’s picks, particularly in areas like marriage equality and climate change, he’d win the election handily.

  7. Rewi

    No. Conventions are not “constitutional”.

    The Constitution (any Constitution) cannot make rules for every procedural nuance that might arise. Humans are not that wise.

    So over time, parliaments have developed other unwritten “rules” when necessary, to fill the gap when a formal rule is not applicable to a circumstance.

    For example, the “rule” that if any serious matter arises during an election, the PM who is now in caretaker role will consult the Leader of the Opposition as to what should be done, is a convention.

  8. Could Parakeelia be an election losing scam for the Liberal

    If it is brought to prominence that the msm can’t completely ignore then it could have a big impact. The Facebook debate isn’t the place. The Turnbull solo show on qanda on Monday is the place. I just hope that someone is allowed to ask the question. If the question is asked AND if Jones asks a followup (as is normally the case) then it could become a big story.

    Monday will be a good test of the ABC to see if it is prepared to put a Lib PM under extreme heat on live TV.

  9. So the ‘rule’ that a Governor General will act on the advice of the Prime Minister is also not correctly referred to as a ‘constitutional’ convention?

  10. I guess what I’m asking is, is there a comparison to be made between this breach of convention and other breaches of convention that may have occurred in history, such as, I don’t know… sacking a Prime Minister?

  11. Yes the polls were very accurate in the PRIMARY vote, in Qld, but where they went wacko was in estimating the preferences.

    They assumed that preference flows would be similar to 2012, but in fact they were wildly diggerent. First whereas in 2012 about 40% (do not quote numbers) of green preferences exhausted, in 2015, probably less than 15% exhausted. these went to Labor so the polls under estimated the TPP by almost 2% on this alone. What is more wheras in 2012 Greens preferenceing Labor was quite low in 2015 it was back to the 85% we normally see.

  12. William Bowe
    Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 3:50 pm
    William, do you have handy exactly when those final polls were published and what period the polling was done over? And is there somewhere I could get the answer myself without bothering you?

  13. nicholas @ #1928 Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 3:59 pm

    These voices encourage disaffection/ rejection. This is their MO.

    Your post is Exhibit A in support of the proposition I have advanced.

    The polemical line used by the G’s is only aimed at fragmenting political expression and posing as a “solution” (changes to the electoral system) measures that are not only unavailable but would be in any case certain to fail. This is the political equivalent of a magic show. Like all magic shows, it relies on deception and on the willing suspension of disbelief.

    The political order we have is more than capable of responding to the challenges we face…as long as the order itself is not deconstructed and dismembered. The splitters will wreck it for their own purposes. This is a very sad thing…and very dismaying to observe.

  14. Rewi

    I forgot to add that conventions are very necessary to fill “unlegislated” rules. They are often described as essential oils without which the parliamentary system will grind to a halt.

    They are honoured over time by all parties and thereby become “conventions”.

  15. I see that Essential is out, and back up a point for Labor. I can’t see that Morgan is out yet.
    Sorry, been tied up all day. Anyone have details?

  16. Thanks Psyclaw.
    In the back of my mind I had an ancient politics lesson where I thought they were referred to as ‘constitutional conventions’, in particular by reference to the Dismissal. Perhaps it’s the passage of time which has fused concepts together in interesting ways…

  17. MTBW,

    Thanks for the advice but if its all the same to you I will continue to talk Sanders down for as long as he selfishly tries to steal a nomination that he has not earnt.
    I will stop the second he accepts reality and conceded and supports Clinton.
    Until he does that and pulls his aggressive and sulking supporters into line and stops giving soundbytes to and helping the disgusting fuckwit known as Donald Trump he will continue to deserve any scorn heaped upon his sorry ass.

    Oh, and for someone who is/was so quick to bag other politicians eg Gillard so regularly your advice actually means shit to me.
    So typical of a green supporter. Dish it out but cry like babies when any criticism comes their way.

    Cheers.

  18. Lizzie
    Wednesday, June 15, 2016 at 3:55 pm
    ScoMo cherrypicking the truth again to make his point.

    He is happy to talk about the ‘greening’ of Labor…….How about the deep “greening’ of the LNP as a result of all the big business money they receive…..and the subsequent brown nosing to repay the favors……

  19. [How many journalists or media industry execs have placed bets in this election?]
    You would like to think that doesnt happen due to it being clearly contrary to their ethics and/or employment contract in the conflict of interest section.

  20. PSYCLAW – REWI – The main point about the Constitution is that it trumps all other law in the land (let’s not look at treaties for the moment). Thus if the court would recognise a “convention” as something that Parliament could not legislate to overturn then I suppose it would be a “constitutional convention”. I’m a lousy constitutional lawyer. But let’s say the Governor General went rogue and dissolved Parliament on the advice of the Opposition Leader, I suppose that would be a breach of a “Constitutional” convention that the High Court might intervene to stop. However, they might well say that it was a breach of an implied term of the Constitution. Just a matter of words, I suppose.

  21. The global climate is undergoing “fundamental change” with abnormal weather conditions becoming the “new normal”, the United Nations warned on Tuesday, as the month of May was declared the hottest on record.

    The northern hemisphere also experienced the hottest spring on record, including heavy rain across much of Europe, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a Geneva-based branch of the UN. Meanwhile, the Arctic ice cap began melting unusually early. By March, the ice was disappearing at rates not normally seen until July.

    The average temperature in May was 0.95 degrees centigrade higher than the average recorded between 1951 and 1980, while the world had now seen 370 consecutive months of warm or warmer than average temperatures, the agency said.

    “The state of the climate so far this year gives us much cause for alarm,” said Dr David Carlson, the director of the Climate Research Programme at the WMO. “The super El Niño is only partly to blame. Abnormal is the new normal.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/global-climate-experiencing-fundamental-change-says-un/?utm_content=bufferb5f95&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

  22. MariamVeiszadeh: @ashtonpittman
    The LGBTI community have fought Islamophobia alongside us & we will fight Homophobia alongside you.

  23. Bonza,

    Haha, just caught up with your smart arse comment.
    How very typical. Anyone who supports Clinton must be a paid shill eh?

    Do you even know anyone in the US?
    Well as I have mentioned before I do. I have 3 children who are US citizens.
    The result of that election is important to my family and friends.

    If you can not accept the simple fact that Clinton has won this contest comprehensively that is your problem.

    I will ignore the snark coming from unknown dickheads.

    You can sit back and await your $10 from the Sanders campaign. Perhaps use it to buy a dummy to replace the one you obviously have spat out.

    Come back to me with your smart arse anonymous bullshit in November.
    cheers.

  24. 1934pc
    I only half joketh (the first half). If a fairfax journalist bet on the election they would be in clear breach of their employment contract.
    And dont call me Shirley.

  25. I had $2000 on Kevin07 and had no problem making the bet – with Centrebet if I recall. Made about $700 – $800 from memory. Not bad for somebody who’s biggest ever bet until then was $10.

    Tom.

  26. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane · 31s32 seconds ago

    The thing re caretaker is, even the most partisan, govt-friendly secretaries take it deadly seriously. Switkowski just didn’t give a shit.

  27. david Speers interviewed ASinodinos on Sky during his usual segment earlier……

    Likes
    Tweets
    Geoff Pearson
    1m1 minute ago
    Geoff Pearson ‏@GCobber99
    Arthur Sinodinos is asked about Parakeelia Q: You don’t think it looks bad?

    On the basis of the info provided to me, I don’t think it does.

    Geoff Pearson
    1m1 minute ago
    Geoff Pearson ‏@GCobber99

  28. I wonder if the potential for Nick X (anti pokies/gambling) to hold the balance of power is effecting the betting agencies in how they set the odds.

    I have a conspiracy theory for any occasion.

  29. Question
    I missed the blockquotes but that was the Guardian following up from yesterday, not me personally. Slowly slowly but at least they are still interested.


  30. Bill Shorten attacks Liberal-Parakeelia ‘scam’; Malcolm Turnbull, Mathias Cormann dodge questions

    Date
    June 15, 2016 – 3:59PM

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    Arthur Sinodinos’ grilled over Parakeelia

    Lengthy pauses pepper the Cabinet Secretary’s responses to questions about the government’s use of a monitoring company linked to the Liberal Party.

    Federal election 2016: News, video and analysis
    Government staffers provided free training for Liberal software donor
    Mystery deepens over Parakeelia as Mathias Cormann ducks questions
    MPs directing taxpayer funds towards Liberal Party link company and donor

    Labor is calling for the Auditor-General to investigate the flow of money from a Liberal-owned software company to the party’s coffers, exposed by Fairfax Media last week.

    Fairfax revealed last week Liberal MPs pay the company $2500 a year to use the Feedback voter-monitoring software, money originating from taxpayer allowances. Large amounts are also understood to pour into its accounts from state parliaments, totalling in excess of $100,000 a year.
    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

    The company has in turn transferred more than $1 million into Liberal accounts in the past three years, becoming its second-biggest single source of income in 2014-15.

    “This looks like a Liberal Party washing machine turning taxpayer dollars into Liberal Party profits,” Mr Shorten told reporters in Perth. “Mr Turnbull needs to get off the fence and stop being in denial about the scam.

    “He needs to say whether he will continue the scam and approves of it or alternatively that he thinks it’s improper and will shut it down. They are the only two options he has.
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull brushed aside questions on Parakeelia on Wednesday.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull brushed aside questions on Parakeelia on Wednesday. Photo: Andrew Meares

    “I think for the sake of confidence in Australian democracy, the Liberal Party need to come clean on their activities and the buck does stop with Malcolm Turnbull.

    “He’s running for Prime Minister of Australia. He needs to say, does he condone what’s been going on or will he say it’s improper and stop. A question he cannot avoid.”

    Mr Shorten said that Labor’s shadow special minister of state, Brendan O’Connor, has written to the Auditor-General calling for an investigation into the issue.
    Finance Minister senator Mathias Cormann has so far refused to explain the operations of Parakeelia.

    Finance Minister senator Mathias Cormann has so far refused to explain the operations of Parakeelia. Photo: Andrew Meares

    The party has denied that this money is donations but is “payments for services purchased through the party”. It has declined to detail this arrangement.

    The party has refused to directly say if the company makes a profit from money originating from taxpayers. It has said only that it is “not run as a profit centre”, a term that does not preclude Parakeelia generating a surplus.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull brushed aside questions about Parakeelia and whether its links to the Liberal Party were appropriate on Wednesday.

    Mr Turnbull said it was a matter for the party organisation.

    However, if every Member of Parliament in the Liberal and National parties has availed themselves of the services of the software provided by Parakeelia, and they are standing for election by the people right now, then the matter becomes one for the people, NOT the Liberal Party organisation to deal with.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/bill-shorten-attacks-liberalparakeelia-scam-malcolm-turnbull-mathias-cormann-dodge-questions-20160615-gpjdug.html#ixzz4Bd3eT5MM

  31. William, do you have handy exactly when those final polls were published and what period the polling was done over? And is there somewhere I could get the answer myself without bothering you?

    The election was on January 31, the Newspoll and Galaxy polls were conducted from the Tuesday to the Thursday, and the ReachTEL poll was just the Thursday. All were published on the Friday evening.

  32. Colton
    [Come back to me with your smart arse anonymous bullshit…]
    It wouldnt be inaccurate to change the title of Pollbludger to ‘smart arsed anonymous bullshit’.

  33. I went and voted today at the Runaway Bay Pre-Poll centre (Fadden). The ALP and One Nation candidates were both out the front of the Pre-Poll centre along with volunteers representing the Greens, LNP and Family First.
    It is the first federal election here where I have seen the ALP candidate being active around the pre poll booth. Maybe that is a good sign for a swing here against Stuart Robert.

  34. I think I’ll try that again *blush*

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull brushed aside questions about Parakeelia and whether its links to the Liberal Party were appropriate on Wednesday.

    Mr Turnbull said it was a matter for the party organisation.

    However, if every Member of Parliament in the Liberal and National parties has availed themselves of the services of the software provided by Parakeelia, and they are standing for election by the people right now, then the matter becomes one for the people, NOT the Liberal Party organisation to deal with.

  35. REWI – If it doesn’t conflict with an express or implied provision of the constitution, then Parliament could. I’d need money in trust though before I tried to give you an answer to that.

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