ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.
Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.
Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.
MrMoney
It was obvious to me that Lenore Taylor had sold out as soon as she joined the Guardian with Murphy as her offsider. Many here on PB seem to worship the ground she walked on. I could never understand why.
No mention of this on the ABC news ..not suggesting they’re biased, but if it had been Labor……..
Katy Gallagher
@SenKatyG
“Brothels, abusing protestors, sex tapes and missing millions the Libs have really outdone themselves today”
fess and vic,
I think that’s the thing with the Tories, the Coalition and any Conservative party the world over, they bitch and moan in a very public and concerted way at any media impediments in their way until they get their way with them. Viz the ABC. Just think about the decades-long moan about it being infested with Lefties. All the while they have a counter program underway to infest their perceived bete noir with subversives of their own stripe. Viz Sarah Henderson, and god knows how many others at the ABC. Then they just keep on going until it is terminally-whiteanted and weakened.
Job done!
Do please continue fishing out Guardian-bashing articles from right-wing websites in response to articles it runs that are critical of the government, MrMoney.
Now is the time for Labor supporters to let slip the dogs of war.
here’s one for workers of the land a must listen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTafZRecy2k&list=RD_ZN3weW1udE&index=7
steve777 @ #697 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 8:49 pm
Yes, by fobbing off journalist’s questions to the booklet they avoid answering said question in front of the camera. It’s like a shell game for them and they just have to keep it up as long as the campaign goes on and until they can get back to working hand-in-glove with their favoured propaganda outlets only.
Waiting for the NewsLtd headline:
“HSU EXPOSED AS BROTHEL OWNER”..
SIr Git
A whole episode? I will have to look it up.
Personally, episodes never got as good as the Ace Rimmer ones. What a guy.
bill’s rallying song for the ALP launch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTafZRecy2k&list=RD_ZN3weW1udE&index=7
cupidstunt @ #483 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 3:33 pm
What’s the big deal really? Was the brothel operating illegally, or was there some conflict of interest?
They gotta reduce penalty goals to 2pts and ditch conversions (tries 7pts). Every rugby game against the old foe i watch ages me a month.
I’m not sure why the Guardian would need to pay tax when it’s a non-profit entity.
Raaraa
Candidate failed fo declare it
wil-i-am
i wouldn’t belittle myself venturing to those RWNJ sites
These are just some comments listed in the comments section of said articles of THE GUARDIAN AUSTRALIA.
i just pick out ones i think are worthy of appearing @ PB
Now is about the time a normal election starts, a month or so a journalist was wetting herself about Turnbull being PM for as long as he wanted. Now he is stuffed. Labor has being doing very well until now and I’m confident the will do better in the next three weeks,
Simon Katich
What about Rimmerland.
I’d like to hope that the electorate are still disengaged – that suits the Liberals fine, their strategy is obviously for people to vote Turnball back in without thinking about the issues or being inspired by the alternative.
Shorten’s job is to energise swinging voters over the next 3 weeks, starting with Q&A on Monday night. Sure, it won’t be easy, with 21 seats required for a win, and the media pretty much against him and barracking for the other side.
The New York Times @nytimes
These scientists say climate change made the Paris floods more likely to occur (link: http://nyti.ms/1Xf0d1l) nyti.ms/1Xf0d1l
i should add that these comments are the ones that haven’t been censored by
Katherine ( with a K ) Murpharoo and Lenore ( i’m the new editor) taylor @ the guardian australia.
The realistic part of me thinks the Libs will fall over the line, perhaps by 10 seats.
But throw Xenophon into the mix, + the Palmer United voters from 2013, and things might get messy indeed on July 2.
WP
Rimmerland freaked me out. WAYYYYY out.
I loved most episodes of Red Dwarf but the Dwayne Dibbley ones had me cracking up.
Maybe the media and the CPG all writing off Labor is a blessing in disguise – Shorten and co now can campaign as if they’ve got nothing to lose. Throw away the spin doctors and the carefully choreographed set pieces, let it rip
Seriously the fiberals are taking the electorate for mugs!!
reshape the social media landscape.
Instead it was an epic multi-million dollar failure overseen from start to finish by embattled Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn.
Announced to the Australian Stock Exchange by a company called Mooter Media in 2012, Shutterbug Millionaire was billed as “the search for the world’s most incredible photo” – a global competition that would combine the suspense and excitement of reality TV with the interactivity and immediacy of the web.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/liberal-candidate-chris-jermyns-missing-millions-after-social-media-flop-20160610-gpg2rl.html#ixzz4BGqprUcR
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
WP
I quite liked Polymorph and the idea of The Committee for the Liberation and Integration of Terrifying Organisms and their Rehabilitation Into Society.
And this is the clincher
an end to its trading halt. But the exchange said Mooter did not “satisfy ASX’s requirements for reinstatement of its securities”.
So what went wrong? And where did the rest of the $15 million go?
Jermyn will not say, refusing to respond to Fairfax Media’s repeated requests for comment. Former Mooter company secretary John F. Diddams and the La Jolla investors also failed to respond.
In May 2014, Jermyn was appointed to the Mooter Media board. In November that year he and his director Jacob Khouri – son of colourful Melbourne businessman Leo “The Gun” Khouri – were sent a letter informing them Mooter had breached a long list of ASX listing rules.
Jermyn left the company the following month to pursue his political career.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/liberal-candidate-chris-jermyns-missing-millions-after-social-media-flop-20160610-gpg2rl.html#ixzz4BGrfMQMq
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
SK and WP
My favourite is the suicide squid episode, love the Cat’s alter ego Dwayne Dibbley
Stupid game.
Speaking of Red Dwarf….I always wanted to revisit the episode where the Red Dwarf lads needed to impress an alien by using a weird set of cutlery. Anyone know the epsiode number or name?
We’d like to speak to Malcolm Turnbull … We’ve got the money’
9:55PM
Child protesters have attempted to gatecrash a lavish Vaucluse fundraiser being attended by the PM
Election 2016: Youngsters try to gatecrash Justin Hemmes’ Liberal fundraiser
Mr Turnbull, understood to have given a speech at the event, mingled inside Hemmes’ expansive Gothic estate for more than two hours.
It was overseen by Liberal Party president and former minister Richard Alston. Longtime Turnbull friend, Channel Seven commercial director Bruce McWilliam, was also in attendance.
It is understood couples were forking out up to $12,000 to be there.
The protesting children were not allowed in and left before the Prime Minister emerged
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-youngsters-try-to-gatecrash-justin-hemmes-liberal-fundraiser-20160611-gph5es.html#ixzz4BGtO3yzO
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Jolyon
I think it’s called Legion
The Libs can usually con a fair percentage of people to vote against their own interest, the would if they could be’s etc. Lets hope this election will be different .
Series 6 episode 2
Boerwar, just offering my opinion which might if printed out be only of use as toilet paper.
victoria @ #714 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 9:23 pm
Fair enough. For a while there I thought it was a leakage of Americanism into local politics.
Raaraa
And it is being reported on twitter that the brothel was raided in past. Dont know how accurate that information is
Victoria @ 10.13: The raid on the brothel was reported in the Fairfax press, see http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/liberal-candidate-resigns-over-frankston-brothel-ownership-20160611-gph1lt.html. Note the similarity of names of the candidate and of the “owners” of the brothel at the time. Same Same but different, as the saying goes.
Pedant
Thanks for that. I had only seen some commentary on twitter. I wasnt sure where the information had come from.
It was overseen by Liberal Party president and former minister Richard Alston. Longtime Turnbull friend, Channel Seven commercial director Bruce McWilliam, was also in attendance.
It is understood couples were forking out up to $12,000 to be there.
Malcolm, back among the people he feels comfortable with after a day spent almost getting close to the hoi polloi at the Nambour Show. Oh the things you have to do to get your trotters on the taxpayer dollar.
Pedant
And together with the latest information on the Lib candidate for McEwen, you gotta ask what type of screening the libs are engaged in?
C@t
If you look at fairfax online, all the articles are reflecting on how bad team coalition are presenting. I am actually gobsmacked. They are for all intents, a rabble!!
And to think, Candidate Jermyn of McEwen hated the press even before this latest expose appeared. The Liberals must be kicking themselves that they decided last week to keep him rather than dump him: too late now. He’ll hardly be able to make a public appearance without someone asking him what happened to the millions.
Re Evan Parsons @9:39PM: I think that the Liberals are the default party of the disengaged, especially when they are the incumbents. They are the party of money, the party of middle class respectability. They beat up side issues like ‘Boats’ to get the disengaged interested and on side. They cultivate fear of the bete noire du jour – communists, ‘union thugs’, jihadis, whatever. They have large sections of the mainstream media actively boosting them, while the rest of the media including our ABC mostly parrots their talking points before moving on to the NRL/AFL/celebrity trivia. They also have money on their side.
They are always going to be very hard to beat.
Pedant
Shonks and spivs, the lot of them!!
I love Alex Ellinghausen’s photography. The look of contempt from Chris Jermyn says all you need to know about Liberals’ opinion of the little people outside their world:
Has Turnbull been asked what the Liberals would do in the event of a hung parliament
Victoria @ 10.19pm: Indeed. Reading between the lines of his various websites Mr Jermyn looks like an ambitious mediocrity who might just have been a tenable candidate if he could at least have been shown to be ethically immaculate, rather than …
Who totally devote their Saturdays to comment moderation. Beyond which, what are the points you thinking you’re making here exactly? That Katherine Murphy and Lenore Taylor are censors, as demonstrated by these uncensored comments? Or failing that, that we should think less of Katherine Murphy because she’s not Catherine Murphy, and of Lenore Taylor because she’s the new editor?
that’s a sweet looking hat he has on his BOOF-head well done chris Jermyn
i’m with team LIEBRAL