ReachTEL: 50-50

Movement in the Coalition’s favour on the primary vote from ReachTEL, but their enthusiasm will be tempered by an alarming result from the South Australian seat of Grey, where Rowan Ramsey is under the pump from the Nick Xenophon Team.

ReachTEL has produced another lineball result on two-party preferred for the Seven Network, which stays at 50-50 after moving from 52-48 in Labor’s favour the week before. However, the poll offers some encouragement for the Coalition in having them up and Labor down on the primary vote for the second week in a row, and the two-party result would have rounded to 52-48 in their favour if 2013 election preference flows were applied, as ReachTEL did until quite recently. Labor was able to retain parity in the headline result through a still greater flow of respondent-allocated minor party and independent preferences, which already looked stronger than plausible.

Labor did particularly poorly this week (and to a lesser extent last week) on the forced response follow-up question for the undecided, on which they failed to crack 20%. With the result of the follow-up question integrated into the total, the primary votes are 42.7% for the Coalition (up 1.2%), 33.2% for Labor (down 1.7%), 9.9% for the Greens (down 0.2%) and 4.5% for the Nick Xenophon Team (down 0.5%). On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull’s combined very good and good rating is up from 26.3% to 28.3%, and poor plus very poor is down from 40.8% to 37.4%. Shorten is down on both measures, from 29.0% to 27.5% on the former and 39.6% to 38.6% on the latter, and Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is effectively unchanged, down from 55.6-44.4 to 55.4-44.6. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2175, which is on the low side by ReachTEL’s standards.

Of perhaps even greater interest than the national result is the regular weekly supplementary marginal seat poll, which credits the Andrea Broadfoot of the Nick Xenophon Team with a 54-46 two-party lead over Liberal member Rowan Ramsay in the electorate of Grey, which covers South Australia’s “iron triangle” of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie, together with the state’s remote areas. Inclusive of the forced preference results, the primary votes are Liberal 39.4%, Nick Xenophon Team 32.7%, Labor 14.5% and Greens 5.5%, with around three-quarters of preferences flowing to Broadfoot. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 665.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack updated with the ReachTEL result below. As BludgerTrack is going off 2013 election preferences, it’s treating this poll as being close to 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour, and there has accordingly been a significant shift in that direction on two-party preferred. However, it’s only yielded one extra seat on the seat projection because of some fairly substantial changes in the state-level results. This is because I’ve only just now added the state results for the last two ReachTEL polls, because their new practice of reporting undecided results presented an accounting difficulty that I’ve only now attended to. The inclusion of these numbers has makes little difference in New South Wales, pares the Coalition back in Queensland, and inflates them in the other four states. In seat terms, this knocks three off their tally in Queensland, and adds two in Western Australia (corrected what looked like an excessive result there earlier) and one each in Victoria and Tasmania.

bludgertrack-2016-06-10

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

830 comments on “ReachTEL: 50-50”

Comments Page 11 of 17
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  2. Hey, can I see some evidence of Labor directing its preferences towards Pyne over his NXT challenger? I am trying to find any news reports online and the only thing I have found is a story in The Australian (I know I know) which is hinting that the opposite is true.

  3. CTar1 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 3:47 pm
    Cupid
    “A LIBERAL candidate has quit after it emerged that he owns “the best brothel in Frankston” that charges $90 for sex at a business called Paradise Playmates.”

    *************************************************
    I heard there is now a sign on the entry door to the brothel :

    It says “Beat it. We’re closed”.

  5. PhoenixRED
    Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 3:54 pm
    The former lie-bral candidate will be returning as a member for the SEX party

  7. An new Army Captain was assigned to our remote desert post in Iraq. During inspection, he notices a camel tied up outside the barracks. He looks at me and asks , ” Sargeant, why is that camel there?”

    I said : “There are 250 men here and no women. Sometimes men get urges.”

    A month later the Captian has urges himself. He puts the ladder behind the camel, drops his trousers and has sex with the camel. He asks me : “Is that how the men do it?”

    “No sir, they usually ride it to the brothel!”

  8. Hey, can I see some evidence of Labor directing its preferences towards Pyne over his NXT challenger?

    I’m not saying they will, just that I can see scenarios where they might.

  9. Brothels are a legal business – merely owning one shouldn’t be a disqualification, just as being a sex worker shouldn’t be.

  10. Have all the non-Victorians left this blog? I can’t be the only one here who skips right over any post which includes “CFA” or “Andrews”. Lately, that hasn’t left much …

  12. Zoomster at 4.03pm – I agree.

    I thought the NT minister resigning for his legal consensual sexy times was also unfortunate.

    Don’t know anything about either individual, but the more we expect politicians to resign or be ineligible for anything remotely “smutty” the less real people we’ll have in parliament.

  13. a joke to brighten the day very gloomy here

    TheSandiman
    4h ago
    9 10

    A man walks into a bar and sees Mal and Roy having a drink together. After a while he notices people going up to a sleeping dog next to their table and lifting the dogs tail. The man then goes to the bar tender and ask what’s going on. His replies, I don’t really know all I know is that I tell people that there is a sleeping dog there with two arseholes.

  14. Zoom
    You are right about the legal status of brothels. (Though in reality I think it is an industry that all too often exploits vulnerable women.)
    But legal or not, the dominance of the LNP by a cadre of moralising, extremist theocrats masquerading as conservatives makes this candidate choice a parody of their own self-proclaimed values. They either dont really believe what they say, or cannot manage themselves. Hypocritical or incompetent, take your pick LNP 🙂

  16. Zoom

    Brothels are a legal business – merely owning one shouldn’t be a disqualification

    Not declaring it is the problem.

  17. A LIBERAL candidate has quit after it emerged that he owns “the best brothel in Frankston” that charges $90 for sex at a business called Paradise Playmates.

    ABC24 was reporting that the Libs will have no candidate in that seat now due to timing.

    I am getting a bit annoyed at the media. This will get a mention, and the Parakellia stuff gets a mention and then quiet. Can you imagine the stink if it had been the ALP? Media would be all over it on high rotation with sarcy headlines and forcing any ALP member doing a doorstop to talk on it. Malcolm gets bloody foot rubs and they just let him lie to their faces with no calling out.

    ALP have run a reasonably positive campaign. I hope they go the mongrel a bit in the next couple of weeks.

  18. Good afternoon fellow Bludgers and William too.
    There’s an excellent profile of Chris Bowen in today’s Fairfax papers(the Good Weekend magazine). Worth a look if you haven’t seen it yet.

  19. I heard there is now a sign on the entry door to the brothel :

    It says “Beat it. We’re closed”.

    I suspect we need to crowdfund the purchase of some sense of humor for certain PB denizens.

  20. Yes, Shorten needs a good Q&A performance on Monday night.
    News Ltd gleefully think the election is all decided, so does 2GB………their so called political correspondent last night was spewing out the supposed negativity of unnamed Labor insiders.

  21. So how many lower houses seats can Xenophon win in SA if the preferences go his way?
    Mayo and Grey at least, it would seem, and maybe Boothby too

  22. carey moore @ #502 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    Hey, can I see some evidence of Labor directing its preferences towards Pyne over his NXT challenger? I am trying to find any news reports online and the only thing I have found is a story in The Australian (I know I know) which is hinting that the opposite is true.

    Well no-one has said that and so there is no evidence on PB.

  23. CTar1 Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 4:17 pm
    Zoom
    “Brothels are a legal business – merely owning one shouldn’t be a disqualification”
    Not declaring it is the problem.
    *******************************************************
    Makes the Feeney headline in Ruperts Oz look a bit stupid :

    David Feeney ‘stuff-up’ covered unfairly, says his wife

    I dare say there are more STUFF UPS going on the LNP candidates brothel than anything that Feeney’s omitted …

  24. In the UK Brexit vote due 23 June, the “leave” campaign is ten points ahead.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/brexit-leave-or-out-10-points-ahead-in-poll-on-britains-eu-referendum-20160610-gpgwv0.html

    I think it is a pity the poll is being fought around racist issues (immigration). There are other good reasons for the UK to get out. The EU is good in principle but I think that the economic management of the EU has been poor for a decade. The bankers who benefit from the EU exaggerate the risks of leaving IMO. Many Britons would be better off, and economic issues affecting social justice like out of control house prices in London could be better dealt with out of the EU.

  25. Sky news presenter…..

    Ashleigh Gillon
    58m58 minutes ago
    Ashleigh Gillon ‏@ash_gillon
    Not exactly a stellar day for the Libs with NT Minister resigning over a sex scandal & a federal candidate quitting over brothel ownership.

  27. I will say one thing about the polls and again it’s a complete feelpinion.

    There is no way that Labor’s primary is going to be stuck at the same level as the last election as BT is showing. Sorry, just not buyin it.

    I can accept that is what the polls are measuring, but I’ll bet they are missing a few percent that will appear on July 2. If they come from the Greens then that won’t make much difference. If they come from ‘others’ Labor wins the election.

  30. and here’s the follow up

    fiberal
    6h ago
    26 27

    Three LIBERAL’S walk into a bar. The bartender says, “We don’t serve LIBERAL’S here.”The LIBERAL’S say, “Thats OK…We don’t serve you either.

  34. Talk of brothels reminds me of 1959 when the Nicklin government started to close down the well known ones. As in “Margaret Street, and “George Street” and “South Brisbane”. The following year the students were having their “prosh” and a sign appeared on George Street saying “Grand Re-opening – Lucky Dip”.

    The girls had to attend the medical centre in William Street once a week for a check.

  35. Socrates @ Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 4:27 pm
    Good news about the Brexit, but I’m not counting my chickens just yet. I seem to recall Scotland leaving the UK was well ahead for most of the campaign before the citizens lost their nerve on voting day.

  36. a comment re the house of ill repute.
    #barkingmad ‏@noelwardle1 1m1 minute ago

    @SkyNewsAust @SenatorRyan How many isolated instances does it take before they admit that they’re just downright dirty ??

  37. lizzie
    If re-elected, the Coalition will spend $18.5 million connecting towns on Tasmania’s west coast to the National Broadband Network using fibre to the node, bowing to public backlash against original plans to use satellite.
    —–e
    This reported back-flip is no surprise from April when they said fibre would take 8 years and wasnt costed in ALP PLEDGES. Federal Liberal MP for Braddon, Brett Whiteley said “The community spoke, I have listened.” Yeah right. All the Fibs listen to down here in TAS is where to drop the pork barrels – Most people down here have a good BS Meter- were not as dumb as they think.

  38. CTar AB

    I do not know who is right about the final Brexit polls, but certainly I think the scare campaign about leaving is BS. As I said, wealthy bankers do not want it, but most ordinary Britons will be no worse off, and better off in the long run. Their democracy may be better off too. As you say, I hope they hold their nerve.

  39. here’s one persons view of polls

    telbraithwaite
    6h ago
    12 13

    At this part of the campain the MSM usually would nanufacture a screaming headline:

    “Liberals back in the lead”

    …. but nowhere can they bodgey up a poll to achieve this. It must be extremely BAD for the LNP/Murdoch indeed.

    Even the BS ‘ReachTel’ for channel 7 can’t manage it! With that bogus poll you can eventually ADD ON another 3% to Labor.

  41. It appears that BK had caught Turnbull’s waffle bug. 50% of the words in this post are superfluous:

    “Briggs is almost universally disliked in his electorate”

    Briggs is universally disliked

    There fixed it.

  42. phylactella Saturday, June 11, 2016 at 4:39 pm
    Talk of brothels reminds me of 1959 when the Nicklin government started to close down the well known ones. As in “Margaret Street, and “George Street” and “South Brisbane”. The following year the students were having their “prosh” and a sign appeared on George Street saying “Grand Re-opening – Lucky Dip”.

    The girls had to attend the medical centre in William Street once a week for a check

    *************************************************

    Q “What are hormones ?’
    A ” noises heard outside a brothel ?”

  44. lizzie

    I always thought the Channel Tunnel was a mistake.

    England needs more HS Rail.

    The Scots are not playing the game however so they’ll miss out and have to deal with higher transport costs.

  45. Having lived on and off in the UK for number of years I always saw the complaints against the EU as the Brits being nostalgic for the past and unable to accept the reality of the day.
    As for immigration I just pointed out it was the Colonies returning the favour of Empire.

  46. Sturt, too, is a prospect for XNT if it receives ALP preferences.
    The danger is that Labor will miss this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to dismiss the egregious Pyne by doing some sort of preference deal with the Libs to keep the X candidate out, possibly to try to protect Albo in Grayndler or Mark Butler in Port Adelaide.

    If this were to happen, Labor people would leave in droves. X is a passing phenomenon. The Libs are enemies for ever.

  48. with all of these sex scandals its obvious the Libs need a root and branch review of their candidate selection procedures 🙂

  49. Quote the current PM a few days ago………..”Small business employs 3 million people in Australia. Quote FPTA………….”Australia is now open for business” …..except perhaps a knocking shop in Frankston at the moment owned by one our candidates.

  50. Re the Frankston brother case:

    (1) I rather think that he will still appear on the ballot paper for Calwell as a Liberal, as happened with Pauline Hanson in 1996.

    (2) While it may be legal to own a brothel, the really interesting thing in the story in the Fairfax press was this: “Paradise Playmates has made headlines before – Victorian authorities found a Chinese woman hidden in a secret cavity in one of its walls in 2013. The woman was on a tourist visa, meaning she was not allowed to work. At the time the brothel’s owners were named as Zian Meng and Jian Xu.”

    Now the candidate was named in the story as “John Min-Chiang Hsu”, which looks like a Chinese name rendered in the old Wade-Giles transliteration. The names of the former owners look like Chinese names rendered in the Pinyin transliteration. I rather think if you read them out loud, they sound quite similar, which raises the question, on which I obviously have no evidence either way, of whether “John Min-Chiang Hsu” and ” Zian Meng/Jian Xu” are actually the same person.

    It may be legal to own a brothel; not sure whether it’s legal or ethical to own a brothel with hidden wall cavities.

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