ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

ReachTEL records a break to Labor after a period of stasis – yet also finds them trailing badly in a crucial Victorian marginal seat.

Good news and bad news for both sides this evening courtesy of the latest ReachTEL polls for the Seven Network, which have Labor opening up a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred nationally, but trailing 54-46 in the fairly crucial Liberal-held Victorian marginal of Corangamite. The national poll has the Coalition down 1.5% to 41.1%, Labor down 0.1% to 36.5%, the Greens down 0.3% to 9.6% and the Nick Xenophon Team back up to 4.3% after an anomalous drop from 4.2% to 2.7% last time. This gives Labor a two-party lead of 52-48 after three successive results of 50-50. It should be noted that this was achieved from a heavy flow of respondent-allocated preferences to Labor: using preference flows from 2013, and folding the Nick Xenophon Team into a generic “others” category, the result would be around 50.6-49.4. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are stable: combined very good and good is up 0.8% to 29.4%, combined poor plus very poor is up 1.7% to 36.8%. Bill Shorten’s improving trend continues, with very good plus good up 1.2% to 29.1% and poor plus very poor down 1.5% to 36.9%. Preferred prime minister continues a slow narrowing trend, now at 54.9-45.1 in favour of Turnbull compared with 55.6-44.4 last time. The automated phone poll was conducted last night from a sample of 2700.

The Corangamite poll is quite a different matter, with Liberal member Sarah Henderson credited with 54-46 lead on two-party preferred, and 48.3% of the primary vote when a forced preference question for the 7.7% undecided is included with the result. Both numbers are exactly identical to the result in 2013, when she unseated Labor’s Darren Cheeseman with a 4.2% swing. The primary votes also record Labor losing ground to the Greens, with Labor on 27.1% and the Greens on 15.0%, compared with 32.0% and 11.9% at the election. This poll was also conducted last night, from a sample of 770.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Triton

    It’s a powerful argument and the main reason people are disillusioned about Turnbull, so it needs to be articulated better and with more length than with a short, opportunistic aside in the course of saying something else.

    My long experience of politics makes me believe that the very best points are the ones that need absolutely no articulation at all – because they are resonating harmoniously with what the voters already feel and think. The greatest of all slogans ‘It’s Time’ reflects that virtue.

    The hardest things to sell in politics are not those that are crap or nonsense, but those that require the most explanation, especially the most technically complex explanation. The easiest things to sell are things that reduce what the voters want and think into simple resonant soundbites – three word slogans if you like. ‘Stop the boats’ was powerful and continues to be for that reason. It is low on public interest now because the boats are seen as having stopped. That is why Shorten is acting so aggressively on sharing the policy and why he actually scored a point today by bawling Turnbull out on appearing to encourage people smugglers by talking down Labor’s commitment to the same policies.

    So, yeah. With a policy that is a plan for jobs and growth, which is basically useless tax cuts for well-off people and all but the largest businesses, the Libs have not got much to sell other than Malcolm Turnbull and Labor scares. If Labor can deal with both – and both are readily addressable – the Liberals have nothing to ask the public to support them on.

  2. T seemed not to really have a clear idea who he was addressing..the panel, the NPC audience, himself, or the viewing electorate. Shorten spoke right into the camera….right at the viewers. He also made sure he directed his gaze (raised eyebrows and all) at T a couple of times, adding some animation to his delivery and his thinking. Shorten is a much more effective communicator than he’s been given credit for.

  3. Bill still holding back NBN and health policy on purpose.They are probably the big guns for the last fortnight.What the hell will Turncoats big policy be. JOBSON GROETHE.

  4. The NBN is a big election issue and labor will announce a strong policy in due course. It will then push the positves.

    To expect either leader to announce any new policy tonight was not realistic.

    A debate this early was always going to be as it was. The two leaders were not going up against each other, they were competing for air time.

    Once all policy is announced then a debate would be worth it, not this early.

    Cheers.

  5. Bill used this to Labor’s advantage. He got two clear short messages out, by repetition.
    Trust Labor
    Vote Labor
    If you remember nothing else of what Bill Shorten said, those words will stick. By contrast nothing of Turnbull’s verbiose presentation has stickability.

  6. Some CPG journo in the SMH complaining that the debate was a waste of time and didn’t deal with a whole range of issues.

    So who was running the debate and asking the questions?

  7. In my view the sticking line was:
    “Malcolm wants to give the banks a 7 million dollar tax cut; we want to give them a royal commission”.

  8. billie @ #1787 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 9:02 pm

    I noticed that Bill injected the snipes to needle Turnbull as well as highlight Turnbull’s flaws. Although everyone here is aware of how poor Turnbull’s Australian NBN many people watching the debate think its alright. They simply don’t know what they are missing.
    Or, maybe Shorten forgot to mention NBN until his summary

    Whatever Labor is going to propose on the NBN it has to be fully costed and explained. There is no point in going early and inviting questions, like the one that Shorten had to field tonight about Labor health spending, until Labor is well and truly ready to run with the full brief.

    There are a number of powerful policies – and criticisms of the Coalition and Turnbull in particular – that Labor have hardly touched yet. While people here are worrying about what dirt Mordor and the Libs might have in store for Shorten and Labor, the Libs should be worried about what an incredible range of material Labor has in store for a government that has done nothing.

    In particular, once Labor starts to publicise all the savage spending cuts that the Liberals propose and cannot deny because they are quite specific in the 2016 (and 2015 and 2014) budget papers I would like to see how the Liberals explain them away, especially when they are going to fund minuscule tax cuts for taxpayers who will hardly notice the extra money in their pay packet.

  9. Puff, I remember Mal almost pleading that he had a Plan, numerous times.
    Trouble is he never began to answer the obvious question: What is it?

  10. Bill rammed the $50 billion giveaway to corporations 5 or 6 times.He knows the average Aussie hates corporations,banks,ceos etc.

  11. Left it on Sky while otherwise occupied and heard Paul Murray ranting about the commercial networks not taking the debate, on the grounds that they claim to be “serious news” organizations and would have shown it if that’s true. Well, Paul, they only make that claim to get people watching their news at 6 pm because that’s how they make money. Money, Paul, is all they’re about and they’ll show whatever they think will make the most of it. Didn’t you know that?

  12. vic:

    Those poll numbers are pretty conclusive.

    Wonder how the CPG commentary will fall tomorrow however…

  13. Fess

    The general consensus i have gleaned so far from the CPG is that Turnbull had a narrow win or was a draw. Me thinks as usual they are being too clever by half. It is the voters that need to be won over.

  14. My only criticism was that at times they didn’t answer the question they were asked. Malcolm Turnbull was asked how could he assure that he would be PM for a full term after rolling Tony Abbott. Turnbull never showed any hint of answering the question. Bill Shorten was asked the same question and did the same thing, but then was brought back to the question and said that Labor had learned from its mistakes in the past.

    I think Labor can neutralize that question better after bringing in the 50-50 reform. Liberals who have brought in no reform on electing the leader are still a left with a question mark.


  15. Whatever Labor is going to propose on the NBN it has to be fully costed and explained.

    The NBN was always arranged so that it was not part of the Budget, I doubt explaining it again will help.
    The issue is Turnbull got involved; forced on NBNco a solution that didn’t deliver. Now more has to be spent by NBNco to fix up the mess. I return on the investment will be harder to achieve.
    “The mess created by Turnbull has to be fixed; better to stop this disaster being built; the money wasted; sooner than later” it is more that three words but it is a simple message.

  16. Actually if they have it ready (and you’d be hoping they do) tonight would have been an interesting and possibly fruitful time to announce something big if it could be encapsulated in a clear, one sentence promise. To bring something really tangible to the debate would show up the PM and get the press all twittering. It would have to be big bold and simple though.

  17. How does an alternative PM discount the capacity of government to provide a ’50 billion tax cut’ on one hand BUT THEN factor them into their own capacity to spend???

    Shorten intends to spend the money on hospitals and schools.

    Turnbull intends to piss it up against a wall.

    It’s not the spending. It’s what you spend it on that counts, TrueBlueIdiot.

  18. Coorey –

    No-one’s mandate to be respected, whoever wins

    Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten have slugged out a nil-all draw in the first official leaders’ debate .

    ….Mr Shorten said Labor would not pass the $48 billion in company tax cuts through the Senate while Mr Turnbull would not give a straight answer when asked if the Coalition, in Opposition, would respect Labor’s mandate.

    …Mr Shorten portrayed the tax cuts as a afterthought by pointing out several time s the tax reform chaos that led up the federal budget and its centrepiece of $48 billion in tax cuts for business over a decade.

    ….”Our opponents have had three economic plans in the last three months. First of all, it was a 15 per cent GST. Then it was to propose that state governments be allowed to levy additional income taxes and now it’s a $50 billion tax giveaway for large businesses in Australia.

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election-2016-noones-mandate-to-be-respected-whoever-wins-debate-slugfest-20160529-gp6q2x

  19. Update
    39%Turnbull
    61%Shorten

    Self selected polls are worthless. But Shorten did school him.

    Again I think the real nuance that the CPG in their insularity is missing is the exclusiveness of Turnbull’s message versus the inclusiveness of Shorten’s.

    Turnbull’s plan is all about giving money to an already well off elite. Oh and some trade agreements. From this the majority are just expected to sit around and wait for the trickle down to reach em. Maybe. One Day.

    Oh and cop poorer education for their kids and more expensive health care, yadda, yadda, yadda to pay for the tax cuts they ain’t going to see a penny from.

    And this is reinforced by Turnbull’s rhetoric, his demeanour, even his little woe is me I was just a poor widdle kid brought up by a single dad in one of the most exclusive suburbs in Sydney attending one of the most exclusive schools in the country and my dear old Dad died when I was still but a stripling and he left me with an inheritance of what would be worth a mere $5.5 million today.

    His shtick is to have people accept that their betters know what’s best for them and he’s the best of their betters. For a while after September people were prepared to play along, but he didn’t fulfill what people thought was his part of the bargain, so not enough people are prepared to give him that benefit of the doubt anymore.

    Bill however, his whole message is how everyone can share and contribute to a growing economy. Having your local school give your kids a better education helps long term economic growth. Being able to see a doctor whenever you feel a bit crook without having it break your bank contributes to long term economic growth. Spending money on the public transport you use to get to work contributes to long term economic growth. Spending money so your internet connection is fit for the future contributes to long term economic growth. Making housing more affordable so your kids might actually be able to buy one contributes to long term economic growth.

    Remember, back self interest. But especially back self interest if you can portray it convincingly as being in the national interest. Turnbull will have most of the business and high income vote cheering because he’s telling them that their tax cuts just happen to be for the country’s benefit…

    The majority though are thinking this bloke who hasn’t delivered what he was supposed to, who is talking over our heads with waffle when he isn’t pretending to be Abbott with his slogans, he’s just asking us to make sacrifices for some greater good we can’t clearly see. But that other bloke, he keeps talking about how doing stuff that helps me in my life right now can also make the country stronger. He seemed a bit of dud before, but he really looks like he’s got a bit about him. That plan of his that is fair and believes in giving everyone a fair go sounds better.

  20. Sorry my last one was about the NBN, but as someone had pointed out above their policy may not be as easily summarised as “fibre to every home” this time unfortunately, thanks to the former Minister responsible

  21. Of course given a ‘popular’ and ‘great communicator’ as a PM a draw is a loss.
    I am sure the CPG will point that out.

  22. vic:

    I guess a leaders debate held this far out from the election date doesn’t mean much anyways as hardly anyone is paying attention.

  23. david @ #1825 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 9:28 pm

    My only criticism was that at times they didn’t answer the question they were asked. Malcolm Turnbull was asked how could he assure that he would be PM for a full term after rolling Tony Abbott. Turnbull never showed any hint of answering the question. Bill Shorten was asked the same question and did the same thing, but then was brought back to the question and said that Labor had learned from its mistakes in the past.
    ……………………………..

    No. Shorten said Labor had learned from its mistakes in the past immediately when he replied.

    Ulmann asked again trying to reopen the question and Shorten repeated what he said to start with, ie ” Labor had learned from its mistakes in the past”.

    Ulmann was wrong – the question was answered in Shorten’s first sentence.

  24. he actually scored a point today by bawling Turnbull out on appearing to encourage people smugglers by talking down Labor’s commitment to the same policies.

    I’m a bit gobsmacked that an ALP leader seems to have actually scored a good solid hit on the Libs over AS. Very well done on Shortens part. Usually dumping it on the Shadow Minister (Marles) would be a cop out the Shadow in such an unpopular portfolio would hate. This has been rather forcefully framed in an almost positive manner? I think that Bluepill’s rants are going to be the Liberal script if it comes up in interviews, but surprise surprise, weak.

    If the sky news viewers think that Shorten won that debate, then Malcolm is dead in the water.

    If that poll (regardless of its validity) gets reported it will set the tone and not a good one for the libs.

  25. I am wondering if the ALP is waiting on the Libs to declare their policies(don’t laugh – I am assuming they some policies somewhere) so that can go one up and use theLibs costs as justification for their own (i.e. the Lib gift of $50b to multinationals).

    Tom.

  26. I missed Shorten’s reply to Turnbull on boats, it is quoted in Coorey’s article

    If Bill becomes Prime Minister, his government will be tested by the people smugglers. Now, he assures us that he will be as strong and as resolute as we have been. And time will tell. But what we know is what happened the last time Labor was in government.”

    Mr Shorten said: “Shame on you Mr Turnbull for what you just said.”

    “Shame on you for giving the people smugglers any hope they could be back in business.”

    This is a good response, accusing Turnbull and he Libs of playing politics on this while sticking like glue to them.

  27. Might be wishful thinking but I really do get the feeling Labor are only just getting started while the Libs are running on empty. There’s a whole facebook campaign as well they’re being quite agile online

  28. confessions @ #1839 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    vic:
    I guess a leaders debate held this far out from the election date doesn’t mean much anyways as hardly anyone is paying attention.

    It all adds up…layer on layer. Voters will notice that Shorten did well and be encouraged to pay more attention to him; and they’ll notice the Turnbot had another miss and be inclined to take a more critical look at him.

    Shorten just flattened Turnbot…very very good result.

  29. confessions @ #1842 Sunday, May 29, 2016 at 9:36 pm

    Dave:
    Seriously, I do not even know where to begin with that Coorey peice.

    ……………………………………………….

    Fess – unless hell has frozen over he is spinning for the tories – even if/ when he gives Labor a backhanded ”compliment”.

    But, seriously did anyone expect either Shorten or turnbull to say they would voted against their own voters in the Senate if event the other side controlled the HoR?

    It was a bullshit question.

  30. All the Sky poll means is labor has more people active tonight voting.

    It is all about the perception.

    Most of the hacks I have read so far have it as a dull draw. That is a good result for Bill from the CPG and others. They are selling it as dull because Turnbull, the great communicator, is simply not so and they need a cover for him. Again, which is good for Bill.

    Cheers.

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