BludgerTrack: 50-50

Essential Research corroborates Newspoll in recording Labor retaining its 51-49 lead, but there’s nothing in it so far as the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is concerned.

The addition of Newspoll and yesterday’s Essential Research result to BludgerTrack leave nothing between the two parties to the first decimal place. Observers of BludgerTrack’s form will know that actually translates into a small Coalition majority on the seat projection, which has the Coalition up one on the seat projection in New South Wales and down one in Queensland. I haven’t updated it with Newspoll’s leadership ratings yet, but will get around to doing so tomorrow. I haven’t yet covered the Essential Research result, which was once again unchanged in having Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. On the primary vote, both parties were down a point – the Coalition to 41%, Labor to 37% – while the Greens and Nick Xenophon Team steady on 9% and 3%.

bludgertrack-2016-05-25

The Australian has also been treating us to a series of supplementary results from the weekend Newspoll over the past few days that echo the further questions posed by Essential Research this week, to wit:

• The latest in Essential’s occasional series on leadership attributes finds Malcolm Turnbull deteriorating between five and seven points over the past three weeks on “out of touch”, “arrogant” and “understands the problems facing Australia”, without suffering much change with respect to capacities such as “intelligent” and “good in a crisis” (although “hard-working” is down five). Bill Shorten’s numbers are little changed, leaving him rated lower than Turnbull on most attributes, with the singular exception of being out of touch with ordinary people, which is the largest point of difference between the two. Similarly, The Australian today has Turnbull ahead on a series of measures, but with Shorten leading on “cares for people” and “in touch with voters”, while Turnbull has lost all but two points of a ten-point lead on “understands the major issues” from February.

• There has been a whole bunch of “best party to handle” results in the past few days. Amid an overall predictable set of results, Essential Research finds Labor increasing leads from 4% to 11% on health, 6% to 13% on protecting local jobs and industries, and 4% to 10% on housing affordability, the latter of which has only recently emerged as an area of Labor advantage. The Seven Network last night had further results from Friday’s ReachTEL poll showing the Coalition favoured 55-45 on economic management, Labor favoured 61-39 on health. Newspoll framed the questions in terms of the leaders rather than the parties, and had Malcolm Turnbull favoured 55-29 over Bill Shorten on the economy, 48-25 on asylum seekers and 43-38 on the cost of living, 46-33 on tax reform, 50-27 on interest rates and 42-38 on unemployment, while Shorten led 47-40 on health, 47-41 on education and 41-36 on climate change.

• When it asked if respondents expected Labor to keep or change the government’s asylum seeker policies, Essential Research found 28% opting for keep, 38% for change, and 34% for don’t know.

• As recorded in the chart below, the three betting agencies have been consistent in offering odds on the Coalition to form government that imply a probability of between 70% and 80%, although the one most immediately responsive to the actions of punters, Betfair, seems to have recorded a bit of a dip over the past few days.

2016-05-25-betting-markets

• In further horse race news, Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports Labor is having trouble landing the swing where it needs it, with Labor margins that were cut fine in western Sydney over the past two elections set to blow out again. Coorey had earlier reported one Liberal strategist saying the election was “genuinely close, but at this stage, the retention of the government is more likely”, while a Labor counterpart concedes they were behind, but concluded: “We haven’t put our cue in the rack.”

Local matters:

• Labor is scrambling for a new Senate candidate in the Northern Territory after Nova Peris today confirmed she would not be seeking re-election, with widespread reports she is to take up the position of senior adviser for indigenous and multicultural affairs with the Australian Football League. Trish Crossin, whom Julia Gillard forced out of the seat to make way for Peris at the 2013 election, told ABC Radio yesterday that Peris had presented Labor with a “selfish distraction”, and called on Gillard to admit she made a mistake. There are as yet no indications as to who Labor might preselect to replace her.

• Both major parties have now lost their first choice candidates for the seat of Fremantle, after Sherry Sufi resigned as Liberal candidate, after local newspaper the Fremantle Herald reported he had been recorded in 2013 doing an unflattering and profanity-laden impersonation of his then boss, state Mount Lawley MP Michael Sutherland. There had been news reports in the preceding days about articles Sufi had written in opposition to same-sex marriage and an apology to the stolen generations, which had actually been in the public domain for some time, and rather technical allegations he had provided an inaccurate account of his employment record on his candidate nomination form. The Liberals have rushed to endorse previously unsuccessful preselection candidate Pierette Kelly, an electorate officer to Senator Chris Back.

• Pauline Hanson’s prospects for a Senate seat is the topic of the hour, having been canvassed by me in Crikey last week, Jamie Walker in The Australian on Saturday and a Courier-Mail front page yesterday. Antony Green told ABC Radio’s World Today program yesterday had “some realistic chance”. Kevin Bonham is a little more skeptical, but doesn’t rule it out.

Phillip Hudson of The Australian reported on Monday that Labor is seeking to exploit talk of a preference deal between the Liberals and the Greens in Victoria to shore up working class support in two low-income regional seats: Bass in northern Tasmania, and Dawson in northern Queensland.

Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports that Jacqui Lambie is advocating that her voters give their second preference to the Nick Xenophon Team, and put Labor ahead of the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,123 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50-50”

Comments Page 3 of 23
1 2 3 4 23
  1. CC

    On advertising. Most of the advertising will be at the pointy end of the campaign. Hopefully money is being saved for NBN adverts for that time.

  2. guytaur @ #93 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:36 am

    CC
    I don’t know what Labor is doing in Marginals I don’t see the handouts media etc.

    I’m in a should-be marginal (Macquarie) because the sitting member is an utter waste of carbon monoxide. At 4.5% it is certainly in play. The ALP candidate was doing handouts at the train station this morning, a cardboard flyer saying that the budget was all for the big end. It is generic, not seat-specific. I think this will be a recurrent theme because it bites. It’s also true, which while not compulsory certainly helps.

    As an aside, a lot of candidates and helpers of all persuasions are going to be mightily pissed off that some nong called an election in the dead of winter.

  3. warrenpeace @ #94 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:36 am

    Bemused #77 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:14 am
    My Point was that the Libs are only interested in coal, they are destroying the Great Barrier Reef polluting the water tables of farm land. All for the sake of a dying industry most counties around the world are moving toward renewable energy. Of course other minerals will have to be mined but with this government gutting the CSRIO and other leaders in the renewable energy industry in both research and development how can these new mines come about. It can only be interpenetrated as that the Libs hold coal mining to be sacrosanct. With which you seem to agree.

    We do have known deposits of lithium and other minerals of interest in renewable technologies.
    The coalition will want to simply dig them up and ship overseas.
    Gutting the CSIRO is consistent with this. We don’t need smart people and research to just dig stuff up.

  4. Cud Chewer #99 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:41 am
    jobs and growth They have yet to tell us in what industries these jobs will be created and what actually will grow.

  5. Autocrat

    Thanks for that. I do agree that the actual length of the campaign is a real loser for the LNP.

    For all the reasons you mentioned as well as voter fatigue. That very voter fatigue is going to destroy the scare campaign by the LNP. We are already seeing a lot of them failing.

    The real choice of people first or the big end of town is biting and I think will see marginals swing towards Labor.

    This is why I am quietly confident of a Labor victory.

    Thats without train wreck pressers.

  6. bemused @ #104 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:54 am

    warrenpeace @ #94 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:36 am

    Bemused #77 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:14 am
    My Point was that the Libs are only interested in coal, they are destroying the Great Barrier Reef polluting the water tables of farm land. All for the sake of a dying industry most counties around the world are moving toward renewable energy. Of course other minerals will have to be mined but with this government gutting the CSRIO and other leaders in the renewable energy industry in both research and development how can these new mines come about. It can only be interpenetrated as that the Libs hold coal mining to be sacrosanct. With which you seem to agree.

    We do have known deposits of lithium and other minerals of interest in renewable technologies.
    The coalition will want to simply dig them up and ship overseas.
    Gutting the CSIRO is consistent with this. We don’t need smart people and research to just dig stuff up.

    Evidently WA has the world’s largest readily accessible reserves of Lithium.

  7. Thanks to those who responded to my question last night about any differences between private and public polling. Apologies for not responding sooner, but fell asleep a few minutes after posting it.

    I certainly agree with confessions that you can’t trust any of the political parties to give an honest report on the results of their own polling.

    ——————————–

    “If this were a contest between policies, Labor should be well ahead.”

    If it were a contest between policies, Labor would probably have won almost every election in my lifetime. The cons as we currently know them simply would not exist.

  8. warrenpeace @ #105 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:56 am

    Cud Chewer #99 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:41 am
    jobs and growth They have yet to tell us in what industries these jobs will be created and what actually will grow.

    BINGO! It really is just a slogan.
    I really am seriously concerned about jobs for the future, particularly for the low skilled. Such jobs are disappearing rapidly.
    And automation is moving into even skilled areas of employment.

  9. Alan Jones tells Malcolm Turnbull to ‘wipe out’ Safe Schools program

    Malcolm Turnbull has broken his two-year boycott of Alan Jones’ 2GB breakfast program, with the influential conservative broadcaster pressing the prime minister to “wipe out” the Safe Schools program.

    Alan Jones started the interview saying those who were expecting another “brawl” would be disappointed.

    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/05/25/08/34/alan-jones-tells-malcolm-turnbull-to-wipe-out-safe-schools#UXHZMDoR8eSfBQUJ.99

  10. Hmmm.

    In a stunning decision more than a fortnight into the election campaign, former merchant banker Carolyn Currie withdrew from the race, saying she felt like a “general with no troops” and had received no assistance from Liberal members in the area.

    “It is very hard leading a group of people that have disparate motives in a dysfunctional organisation into a battle where what I’m trying to achieve is an optimum outcome for everybody,” she said.

    Dr Currie claimed the three local branches did not even want a candidate to stand in the first place.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/mosmanbased-liberal-candidate-for-illawarra-seat-says-she-has-been-abandoned-by-party-20160525-gp35yl#ixzz49cs8usG4

  11. Nice to know Alan Jones never got bullied because of his homosexuality and so wants the ‘Safe Schools’ program gone. Not every LGBTQI young person is so lucky.

  12. Malcolm Turnbull has broken his two-year boycott of Alan Jones’ 2GB breakfast program, with the influential conservative broadcaster pressing the prime minister to “wipe out” the Safe Schools program.

    Well, after all, they didn’t have Safe Schools when Jones was in the dressing sheds after footy training, whipping up a bit of enthusias—–

    Oh… wait…

  13. dave @ #63 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 9:44 am

    Yet again the greens showing their true colours –

    The South Australian senator Nick Xenophon strongly backed Conroy’s move to push resolution of the {AFP raids – Privilege } issue back to the Senate.
    A spokesman for the Greens leader, Richard Di Natale, said the party would not adopt a formal position on the issue before a party room discussion after the election.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/24/nbn-leak-raids-labor-takes-fight-to-assert-privilege-to-senate

    Yup!

  14. Without putting William in a sue able position I hope what about Jones and the London underground toilet.
    Why should he oppose the Safe Schools program.

  15. ☺️I assume that a “swing” voter is one who is waiting to find out “what’s in for me” person.
    I like to think a Labor voter is one who is interested in what’s best for everybody.
    The Hillsong mob may know what the NLP want.
    ☺️

  16. “Malcolm Turnbull has broken his two-year boycott of Alan Jones’ 2GB breakfast program, with the influential conservative broadcaster pressing the prime minister to “wipe out” the Safe Schools program.”

    He’s only ‘influential’ because idiot media seem obsessed with him for no other reason other than click-bait. This non story is heavily featured on the SMH site also FFS!

  17. Bemused

    Evidently WA has the world’s largest readily accessible reserves of Lithium.

    That’s possibly right.

    But you have to destroy beaches to get it out.

  18. shanebazzi: PNG Supreme Court to hear Ben Lomai’s #Manus detention case on June 30 https://t.co/gvzopwnVXA

    AS will return to campaign on this date. All Labor has to do now after Mr Shorten has announced exit strategy staring with working with UN High Commissioner is ask what is LNP exit strategy. No matter which way court decision goes.

  19. Lithium is common in granite, of which there must be about 5 million cubic miles in WA.

    Although lithium is widely distributed on Earth, it does not naturally occur in elemental form due to its high reactivity. The total lithium content of seawater is very large and is estimated as 230 billion tonnes, where the element exists at a relatively constant concentration of 0.14 to 0.25 parts per million (ppm), or 25 micromolar; higher concentrations approaching 7 ppm are found near hydrothermal vents.

    Estimates for the Earth’s crustal content range from 20 to 70 ppm by weight. In keeping with its name, lithium forms a minor part of igneous rocks, with the largest concentrations in granites. Granitic pegmatites also provide the greatest abundance of lithium-containing minerals, with spodumene and petalite being the most commercially viable sources. Another significant mineral of lithium is lepidolite. A newer source for lithium is hectorite clay, the only active development of which is through the Western Lithium Corporation in the United States. At 20 mg lithium per kg of Earth’s crust, lithium is the 25th most abundant element.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium

  20. On Mathias (twice) plugging Bill instead of Turnbull, my son’s comment was that, when the filters are off, Bill is the one who pops into your mind when you’re thinking about the Prime Minister.

  21. Alan Jones must surely be preaching to the converted. I don’t see him shifting many votes. His audience would be older and pretty much set in their political outlook. I’m assuming that they like to hear their fears and prejudices echoed by an eloquent and passionate showman.

    Young people don’t listen to him. What about the disengaged older listeners? Wouldn’t they be bored with political talk and listen to music or fluff instead?

  22. steve777 @ #136 Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 11:37 am

    Alan Jones must surely be preaching to the converted. I don’t see him shifting many votes. His audience would be older and pretty much set in their political outlook. I’m assuming that they like to hear their fears and prejudices echoed by an eloquent and passionate showman.
    Young people don’t listen to him. What about the disengaged older listeners? Wouldn’t they be bored with political talk and listen to music or fluff instead?

    The thing is, most people do not like being “talked at”. They like to “talk with” or “talk to”. Radio is not conversation. It is background noise for the most part. It would be very interesting to know how many “listeners” are actually “attending to” what is broadcast.

  23. [
    Young people don’t listen to him. What about the disengaged older listeners?
    ]

    I guess they would if in a taxi, now they just ‘uber it’s (I heard that phrase for the first time on the weekend)

  24. While on Sydney radio Mr Shorten has won endorsement of someone with a bigger audience than Jones

    This posted 3 Hours ago
    MarkDiStef: BREAKING: Kyle Sandilands has just endorsed Bill Shorten.

  25. Guytaur
    Wednesday, May 25, 2016 at 10:23 am
    Good Morning

    On the political segment on Mornings on 702 ABC Sydney this morning with Wendy Harmer, Lenore Taylor said that the spending by both majors is the same its the priorities that are different.

    She also referred to the Morrison overreach presser. Harmer was good at highlighting the change of figure from beginning of presser to end of presser.

    Good to hear. I like Lenore, but after her effort on Insiders I am beginning to go the same way as many of the people who comment on her articles, and give up on her.
    I don’t expect her to be an ALP partisan like me, but I also don’t expect her to be so generous to Turnbull, who has been a complete dud. It is not partisan to observe that his biggest failings are the imagery Lenore seems to find the most seductive. A progressive liberal he ain’t, a unifying force he ain’t, a better communicator he ain’t. If the months of confused government didn’t prove it, the first few weeks of the campaign should have. It’s just as vacuous as it was under Abbott.

  26. Alan Jones and Ray Hadley donseem to be a favorite of taxi drivers. That’s the only time Inhear them. They haven’t converted me. As Briefly says, I don’t like being talked at. I’d find them annoying even if they were to say someting I agreed with.

    Actually ditto many columnists. I’m looking at you Piers, Dolt, Miranda (but not Gerard Henderson or Greg Sheridan, who I find interesting even if I disagree).

  27. On advertising, I would expect all parties to seriously start to ramp up from this week, probably starting this Sunday night. On Saturday we are 5 weeks from poling day, so getting down to normal campaign length. Given the length of the campaign, the lack of advertising in the first three weeks was hardly surprising; there was a bit in the first few days when people would have had a passing interest, but certainly no point in wasting your key messaging in the early weeks. Labor in particular have a hell of a lot to work with and I have no doubt that the blitz is coming.

  28. Well, well. It appears not everything is as it seemed.

    Trust Bill Shorten?

    “No way!” says Miranda Devine.

    It appears Bill deliberately waived road safety rules in pulling his convoy over to the side of the road, then shamelessly got the cameras to photograph him “comforting” one of the women involved in the accident, and didn’t even go over to the other car to attempt CPR. Give Shorten the “Jaws Of Life”and I bet he wouldn’t know what the eff to do with them.

    So much for Union OH&S laws.

    What a hypocrite Bill Shorten is.

    Bill Shorten’s ghoulish display a political car crash
    Miranda Devine,
    Wednesday, May 25, 2016 (1:16am)

    REMEMBER those photos of Bill Shorten “comforting” a woman who had been involved in a serious head-on collision after trying to overtake his dawdling convoy on Cessnock Rd last Thursday?

    Remember all the stories lauding his empathy, and ALP candidate Meryl Swanson raving about what an “outstanding” man he was because he’d invited the 33-year-old driver of the Mitsubishi Magna and her two-year-old son to take refuge in his car while emergency services freed the other driver from her Nissan Pulsar.

    “It’s often when a person’s true character is shown, in a situation like this.” Swanson said.

    Ain’t that the truth. Turns out the families of both drivers involved in the accident are furious with Shorten and have blasted him on social media.

    “I find it very difficult to comprehend that anyone could give clearance for a cavalcade to pull up in that location, it’s bloody ludicrous!” wrote Shane Lee, the partner of the woman driving the white Mitsubishi which overtook the convoy.

    While the crash is not on camera, Lee alleges his wife swerved to avoid the final vehicle in Shorten’s convoy which had “not only FAILED TO INDICATE but also DID NOT PULL COMPLETELY OFF THE ROAD”, he wrote in a comment about the crash on Canberra Pastor Peter Pelt’s blog on Monday.

    Whatever is the case, locals are aghast Shorten chose to stage a media event on the narrow verge of that dangerous stretch of Cessnock Rd at Testers Hollow.

    Lee could not be contacted yesterday but he also claimed photographs taken of Shorten talking to his partner were less empathy and more political opportunism.

    Shorten, “took full advantage of a terrible situation to promote himself to the public. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate him & his people taking care of my boy & getting him home but it would have been far more genuine if ALL CAMERAS STOPPED.”

    Equally unimpressed is the grandmother of 21-year-old Tayla Simmons, the driver of the blue Pulsar who was taken to hospital suffering facial lacerations which required about 13 stitches, a broken nose, broken toe and bruises and cuts to her legs and chest.

    “Today I am a very, very unhappy grandmother,” posted Jann-Saunders-Bailey on Facebook on Friday.

    “To think that my granddaughter was in a very bad… accident at Testers Hollow yesterday and Bill Shorten or any of his crew [didn’t] even bother to go and see if she was OK, they were too busy talking to the lady that [was also in] the accident. Good on you Bill Shorten, did you bother to ask how she was or even ring John Hunter Hospital to ask?”

    Saunders-Bailey did not return calls yesterday and a relative, Samantha, declined to comment. But on Friday afternoon, a couple of hours after Shorten’s office was alerted by The Daily Telegraph to her Facebook comments, Saunders-Bailey posted: “I would just like to tell everyone that I have spoken to Meryl Swanson and Bill Shorten and everything is OK. Please don’t comment any more.”

    The Labor campaign clean-up crew had done its work.

    There’s nothing else for it: shorten is a complete fraud.

  29. Alan Jones rates well in the 55-64 age group, and completely dominates with people over 65. We see in poll after poll that the Coalition wins with those voters very easily. So it’s fair to say that he is largely talking to the converted, those who wish to have their biases and prejudices reinforced. That is why it is only really a story when he launches on the Coalition, such as he did on the Liberals in New South Wales recently, or the LNP in Queensland.

    Kyle, on the other hand, as much as I cannot stand him, dominates with people under 40 and would be more likely to be heard by swinging voters and the less engaged. I have no idea what he said, but like him or in my case loath him, an endorsement from him is certainly not a negative and probably more a positive.

Comments Page 3 of 23
1 2 3 4 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *