Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The first poll of national voting intention in nearly a week records a significant drop in the Coalition’s primary vote.

Morgan has released a poll of federal voting intention derived only from this weekend’s round of face-to-face and SMS polling, and not combining two weeks of polling as per its usual practice. Compared with the poll from the two weekends before the election was called, the poll records a solid drop in the Coalition primary vote from 40% to 36.5%, with Labor up half a point to 33%, the Greens up two to 15.5% and the Nick Xenophon team up one to 5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, this converts into an increase in Labor’s lead from 51-49 to 52.5-47.5. Going off 2013 election preference flows, the change is from 50.5-49.5 to 52-48. Despite the shorter than usual field work period, the sample is a considerable 2318.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

577 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. Paul Bongiorno is about the only one worth listening to on Fran Kelly’s show – he demolished the ABC spin over penalty rates in a few sentences and Fran could only reply “well its hard to get that in a headline” – says all we need to know about her brand of political commentating. She’d spent a great deal of time lauding Greens tactics and dismissing the day as “lost” for Shorten. Its a pity we only get Paul B. for a few minutes twice a week as his role lately has been a great foil for Fran’s gotcha style. He often seems pretty frustrated at her dumbed down approach.

  2. Who, in their right mind, would believe a word Di Natale says after his disgraceful preference deal with Kroger’s Liberals..?

  3. Nicholas and co,

    Given your great desire to stand up for Australian workers I would be interested to hear what you think about the greens and their leader Di Natalie attacks on the jobs of thousands of Australian workers in the ship building industry.

    Simply sprouting ideology does not mean a thing when real jobs and real lives are being destroyed by your extreme lefvwing party.

    I hope Di Natalie stands up and tries to answer that question today.

    Cheers.

  4. Ken McNeill

    Frankly, after a day of politics a show like MasterChef is just the right distraction. No need for brains, and I love food.

  5. –“If there is a hung parliament with no deals Turnbull will be asked to test the confidence of the house. If he fails to gain the required votes Shorten will be asked to do the same. If the Greens alone have the balance of power votes it will be them forcing a new election. Simple really.”

    Indeed. The ALP should simply state that they will make no deals with anyone to secure confidence and supply. Legislation will pass or not just as it does now. If the Greens wish to support a Liberal government then that is there right. If the Greens and the Liberals wish to do a deal to shore up a Liberal government then they must wear the consequences. The ball is in the Greens court as far as I can see.

  6. Hairy Nose

    “well its hard to get that in a headline”

    The secret of Tony’s popularity with the MSM. Thye didn’t need to exercise their brains? Short headlines written for them.

    But life isn’t like that.

  7. “Their ABC is giving me the absolute shits at the moment.”

    Yes, their political coverage is infantile at best, and downright misleading at worst.
    Apart from Stephen Long and one or two others, they like the SMH, don’t employ journalists in the traditional sense any more. They all see themselves as celebrities or newsmakers in their own right, searching for a relevance that is fading fast..

    And when they trot out bloody Kate Carnell as an independent authority on penalty rates for 7.30, you realise all hope is lot.
    I notice before turning it off that Sales kept referring to penalties, rather than penalty rates. No accident I’m sure!

  8. El Guapo – I’m a bit confused by your post.

    We both know that both Labor and Liberals are lying when they say they wouldn’t do deals to get into power. Of course they will. So will the BoP MPs.

    Whether this takes the form of a formal coalition, or simply an agreement to vote ‘yes’ on confidence and no on ‘no confidence’ motions is yet to be determined.

    If a Labor/Coal politician came out and said “yes, a hung parliament is possibly and obviously we would do a deal to get into power”, they would be destroyed by the media.

    The only possibility of a second election is if Coalition gets exactly 75 seats and fail their negotiations.

  9. Ek Guapo

    I doubt there will be a hung parliament. However if there is a lot of this commentary before the election will disappear after one.

    Predicting what will happen in the unlikely 1 in 5 chance of a hung parliament and less than that for the Greens holding balance of power is a mugs game and a lot of people are falling for LNP Murdoch spin on this

  10. BevanShields: Backpacker tax announced in Joe Hockey’s last budget. Has taken a year for the government to realise it might not be great policy #ausvotes

  11. I like these long pressers from Shorten. Really shows the government with its short pressers has no detailed policy to talk about.

  12. victoria @ #444 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 10:55 am

    Just me
    Not sure if correct, but are you the bludger who is very familiar with politics in the NT? If so, how do you think the seats will fall?

    For what it is worth, coz I tend to be worse at predicting NT outcomes than general federal (and I am average at that):

    Senate: one each (ALP & CLP). Pretty much a given for any election.

    Reps: ALP definitely hold Lingiari and probably increase that vote (because indigenous, who make up a big chunk of the vote in that seat, got seriously burned by the faux native-friendly version of current Giles led CLP NT government), and ALP to quite possibly pick up Solomon. Natasha Griggs is a classic seat-warmer.

    One thing worth noting about the NT is that while we are seen as tending conservative, it is very much a centrist version of conservatism. An urban version of agrarian socialists. The CLP (until the Giles era, at least,) is more a mates party than ideological conservatives.

    Always difficult to know because we rarely see any public polling up here.

  13. There won’t be a hung parliament if Essential & Morgan is any guide ..can’t see Truffles making any inroads with his netsat moving into negative territory and no policies that attract swinging voters..

    ..Di Natale will have to work a bit harder to under-mine Labor, but..

  14. or simply an agreement to vote ‘yes’ on confidence and no on ‘no confidence’ motions is yet to be determined.

    No agreement is required. The vote is all that matters. Either the Greens/indies vote to support the ALP or not, and that will persist until they decide to vote for a no-confidence motion.

    Having a bit of paper that says “we will vote for the ALP in supply and confidence until we decide not to” is pointless.

  15. I was listening to Bell’s presser, sounding reasonable and ‘practical’. I walked away for a moment and the voice suddenly became a harsh roaring sound “plaaan”, “our plaaan for jobs and growth”. Oh, the PM, I thought, not sounding pleasant at all.

  16. @ Jackol – hence why I said informal agreement.

    You could also make the same argument for discussions before a potential leadership spill. The vote is all that matters, but you need informal agreements beforehand or you will end up with egg on your face.

  17. Likes
    Tweets
    Rachel Baker
    22m22 minutes ago
    Rachel Baker ‏@astudentnow
    Shorten on Libs saying Labor will form gov with the Greens
    “Mr Turnbull has either been told lies or is telling lies”
    #auspol #ausvotes

    2

    Rachel Baker retweeted
    Sky News Australia
    27m27 minutes ago
    Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust
    .@billshortenmp says Labor will commit $500m in grant funding to secure Adelink tram network if elected #ausvotes

  18. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-16/great-barrier-reef-coal-dust-kills-coral-report-shows/7419632?section=environment

    Questions about the risks of shipping coal through the Great Barrier Reef have been raised after a study showed coal dust released into seawater kills corals and slows seagrass and fish growth.

    Research led by scientists at James Cook University in Townsville in north Queensland has found corals exposed to the highest concentrations of coal dust died within two weeks.

    The scientists mimicked the exposure of marine species to coal dust by adding carefully controlled amounts of fine coal particles and measured their responses over time.

    “Corals exposed to lower concentrations of coal lasted longer, but most of them also died after four weeks of exposure,” researcher Kathryn Berry said.

    “The coal didn’t kill seagrass or fish, but it stunted their growth by half compared to clean water.”

    In Australia, more than 60,000 tonnes of coal remained on board the Shen Neng 1 when it ran aground on the Great Barrier Reef off Gladstone in 2010.

    “While the likelihood of a major spill on a coral reef or seagrass meadow is low, we are now beginning to understand the likely consequences,” Dr Andrew Negri said.

  19. There was once a couple named Penalty Rates and Welfare, then had a kid called Workchoices, things were going fine till the kid starting growing and started to be a brat.  Then the e parents got devorced.

  20. This piece by Paula Matthewson gave me a good chuckle

    Emilio, Barón Death
    Emilio, Barón Death – ‏@krONik

    Is Good cop, bad cop: Abbott/Credlin’s #ausvotes strategy? @Drag0nista socks it to Credlin! Reeeeeooow!

    http://fuqd.at/LsDjF8

  21. In case anyone would like to go:
    Dear NTEU Members

    Below is the Unions NSW notice regarding a motion of condolence for John Kaye to be heard on Thursday, 19th May 2016, 5.30pm at the Trades Hall Auditorium, 4-10 Goulburn Street, Sydney. John was a very proud member of the NTEU and worked tirelessly in the Parliament on Education and Environment issues.

    All NTEU members are welcome to attend this Unions NSW meeting.

  22. I was interested that Hill a Shorten made a point of addressing the AS and greens issue front up in his interview.

    I thought at the time it was a bit unusual and well may have been a hint the two issues were hurting.

    However, I decided it was best to give Bill the benefit of the doubt and he does nothing without a reason.

    Seems the MSM may have picked up on his comments and following through on with questions to Turnbull, turning it on him and he does look uncomfortable.

    Turnbull in fact actually said border security was a political issue. Not a good look.
    Bill knows what he is doing.

    Cheers.

  23. I predict that most people in Adelaide will go around criticising AdeLINK tram proposal as a waste of money when discussing with friends and colleagues but thousands upon thousands of us will secretly love it and vote for it in the privacy of the ballot box

  24. –“El Guapo – I’m a bit confused by your post.
    We both know that both Labor and Liberals are lying when they say they wouldn’t do deals to get into power. Of course they will. So will the BoP MPs.
    Whether this takes the form of a formal coalition, or simply an agreement to vote ‘yes’ on confidence and no on ‘no confidence’ motions is yet to be determined.
    If a Labor/Coal politician came out and said “yes, a hung parliament is possibly and obviously we would do a deal to get into power”, they would be destroyed by the media.
    The only possibility of a second election is if Coalition gets exactly 75 seats and fail their negotiations.”

    The only people who need to vote supply and confidence are Greens and Independents. The ALP could do a deal. Or they could say to the Greens you can support the Liberals or you can support Labor. You choose. What do you think the Greens would do?

  25. Raaraa
    “With these numbers, it looks like a hung parliament is more likely.”

    My concern is that the swing to the ALP will expand their margins in seats they already hold. To put it another way, they’ll consolidate their heartland, but fall well short of winning enough seats.

  26. “Backpacker tax announced in Joe Hockey’s last budget. Has taken a year for the government to realise it might not be great policy ”

    They’re getting better then.

  27. Truffles election campaign appears to have come to a juddering halt ..and it’s only week two of an eight week campaign..

    ..already relying of the AFP to wheel out the TERROR ALERTS!!!! to distract voters from the Coalition’s abysmal campaign.. devoid of ideas/policies attractive to swinging voters..

    ..this is the election campaign from hell for Truffles..

  28. But, Hanged is Preferred for Execution by Hanging. Definition!
    So dear friends, are we speaking of “hung” or “hanged” parliament?
    In what sense are voters “swinging”?
    Surely we would not want decimation of our elected representative in the event of failure to deliver promises?

    Will a quality movie (picture to old folk like me) from the fifties be shown today at lunch/dinner time?
    Bye

  29. If the Greens were vote to keep a Coalition Government in power, that would be the end of them. Their collapse would echo that of the UK Liberal Democrats, whose share of the vote fell from 23% in 2010 to under 8% in 2015, after doing a deal with the Devil. Maybe it would be worse.

    They won’t do it. In a hung Parliament, Labor would just need to call their bluff.

  30. victoria @ #494 Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 12:01 pm

    Ken McNeil
    You could always watch Richard Di Natale at the NPC at 12.30 pm

    Victoria, Thank you. I will have a look at Richard Di Natale. My not so smart TV program guide does not refer to the NCP at all.
    A NSW police lady is currently talking (ABC24) about keep us safe. She has mentioned Dads, Mums, Sisters and Brother. It sounds like a verse from “I never see Maggie alone”. Either that or “He’s his own grandpa”. Complete bullshit as the number of women who are daily assaulted or murdered is apparently irrelevant when compared to evil furrinners out to get us.
    Bye

  31. Morgan Labor vote minus BludgerTrack:

    Nationwide: 3
    NSW: 2.7
    VIC: 3.7
    QLD: 1.3
    WA: 3.3
    SA: 5.6
    TAS: 8.5

    So unfortunately, if the state level breakdown gets pushed through the Bludger Track machine, it may not have much impact on seats, as the votes are coming from the wrong states.

    However, I don’t see how this squares up with the recent Tasmanian electorate level polling showing the Liberals keeping their 3 seats. If Morgan does bias in favor of the Greens 1st pref, it would explain the deltas being so pro-Labor in Tas, Vic and minimal in Qld.

  32. Kakuru

    My concern is that the swing to the ALP will expand their margins in seats they already hold. To put it another way, they’ll consolidate their heartland, but fall well short of winning enough seats.

    A Big Kim result is very possible. Winning the count but losing where it matters.

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