The Courier-Mail today brings the Coalition one of its most encouraging poll results in a while, crediting them with leads on federal voting intention in Queensland of 54-46 on two-party preferred, and 46% to 33% on the primary vote. This compares with 57.0-43.0 at the 2013 election, and primary votes of Coalition 45.7% and Labor 29.8%. The only seats a uniform swing of 3% would net for Labor would be the Rockhampton region seat of Capricornia (margin 0.8%), which Labor has only lost three times since 1961, and the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie (0.5%). The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday evening from a sample of 1176.
Also from Galaxy, the Daily Telegraph has electorate-level polling showing the Liberals leading 54-46 in Lindsay and by unspecified amounts in Gilmore and Reid, with 50-50 results from Banks and Dobell and a 51-49 lead for Labor in Macarthur, the scene of last night’s leaders forum. More precise figures on that will be available at some point, hopefully soon. The polls were automated phone surveys of around 500 respondents per electorate.
I’m aware at least one other big set of regional polling that will be with us this evening, so stay tuned for that one. Other news:
• The small sample of attendees at last night’s leaders forum came down 42-29 in favour of Bill Shorten over Malcolm Turnbull.
• Family First Senator Bob Day’s constitutional challenge against Senate election reforms got short shrift from the High Court in yesterday’s judgement, which said in reference to the plaintiff’s submission: “None of the above arguments has any merit and each can be dealt with briefly.”
• The government has maintained its recently developed interest in South Australia with a visit to the state yesterday by the Prime Minister, in which he committed to funding half of an $85 million rail project connecting Flinders University to the central business district, with a scheduled completion in late 2018. This helpfully runs through the electorate of Boothby, to be vacated at the election by Liberal member Andrew Southcott.
• Labor and Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie have attacked the federal and Tasmanian state governments over $22 million in grants from the Tasmanian Jobs and Investment Fund that were announced this week. Most of the money had been freed up by the demise of a proposed tourism visitors centre at the Cadbury’s factory in the northern Hobart suburb of Claremont, in Wilkie’s seat of Denison, but the bulk of the new projects were in the three marginal Liberal seats in the state’s north. The Hobart Mercury reports that $6.29 million has gone to Lyons, $5.55 million to Bass and $3.59 million to Braddon, compared with $3.6 million in Denison and $2.91 million in Labor-held Franklin.
• Some anonymous public-spirited individuals have put together an outstanding interactive data visualisation site through which you can explore disclosures of political donations.
lizzie @ #299 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 5:12 pm
Hell’s teeth!
If Terry McCrann has given up on Malcolm, let slip the dogs of war!
Seriously? I’d love to know Hildebrand’s source for that. If true, no wonder Kroger’s been crowing about this supposed preference deal.
Davud
I was actually talking in terms of the maths needed to be the majority needed to win government.
Sometimes the basics need to be repeated.
BB @ 292
🙂 Sounds like you’ve just encountered ShowsOn’s alter ego!
confessions @ #374 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 6:52 pm
Yes, however I think it’s more got to do with the fact that (as Andrew Elder pointed out in this article): http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/the-blind-spot.html
that the above is beginning to change (as, like someone mentioned in an article somewhere about the Greens wanting any and all sorts of publicity, they’re getting more attention this *week* than the entirety of the 2013 federal election campaign).
The Senate voting reforms did not force a DD election, the ABCC trigger (among other triggers) did. And while some Greens supporters did not support the voting reforms, I don’t ever claim that every Greens member supports every policy the Greens have. There are even some Greens voters who support current asylum seeker policies (!!!) and do not support marriage equality (!!!!). Similarly, there are ALP supporters which disagree with some ALP policy (such as their asylum seeker policy, which briefly, among others probably, do not support).
I don’t think Peter Wicks is wrong all the time about the Greens, but it irritates me when he results to outright lying, such as the Greens being annoyed that Fiona Patten was elected in the NMR because it took a Greens spot – please, they had something like 1.3 quotas between them, if the Greens had all this vote they would have exhausted soon after Barber was elected, and I knew of various Greens, including myself, putting Patten as #1 in an attempt to get her elected, or Di Natale supporting Senate voting reform to get rid of SHY when SHY is at the top of the ticket and had basically no chance of losing (due to her having ~8 years more experience in the Senate than Simms).
Labor got Fremantle back after Carles imploded.
Are you bright enough to work out why Labor has had enough?
nicholas @ #388 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:03 pm
So, he only would be happy with Abbott if he made so many people’s lives a misery that they revolted. If Abbott was nicer than that, he would not be so happy. Fair enough.
The future is here:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/05/04/the-largest-coral-reef-in-the-continental-u-s-is-dissolving-into-the-ocean/
Airlines:
I think the Greens party’s anti transparency when it comes to its own internal processes has made the media sit up and take notice. Esp now they have changed leaders twice without the media cottoning on. Shutting the media out of their conferences also wouldn’t have gone down well with the media.
victoria @ #393 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:07 pm
I’d rather he voted Labor (or Liberal, or whatever) than informal.
victoria @ #393 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:07 pm
victoria, in my wider family there are four some-time G-voters. One is a post-graduate student, two work in the arts and the third is a retired academic. Not a single one of them will vote Green this time. They have needed no persuasion from me or anyone else. They will not vote for a Party that is aligned with the LNP. It is not complicated. No matter they have voted Green in the past, their aversion to the LNP is stronger than their attachment to the Greens. For them, the G’s have mainly been a proxy for pro-Labor expression.
G’s such as Nicholas can soothe themselves by talking about neo-liberalism. No-one gives a s@#$ about that. What they want to see is a Labor Government and that is what they will vote for.
Gotta go.
Sydney game to watch.
Go Swannieeessss!!!!!!
confessions @ #410 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:20 pm
I’m okay with the “changing-leaders-without-much-notice” thing, I don’t want the leader in a parliamentary system to be a big presidential figure – I much prefer a Hawke style of government.
Di Natale said he’d begin opening up his conferences, and I’m not sure how far that’ll go, but Sky News was let in to televise one of his speeches, so progress is progress.
c@tmomma @ #359 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 6:42 pm
I never see Pegasus’s comments. Does she criticise the Labor party?
Who cares? Certainly not me. Pegasus is a waste of time and effort. Life is too short. Any time I have sometimes actually looked at her comments, I see nothing but quotes which I am not interested in.
The magic of Musrum.
guytaur @ #385 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:02 pm
You have drunk so much of the Green Kool-Aid you are slurring your words.
Best you have a lie down for a while till it wears off.
guytaur @ #398 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:12 pm
This is the gamble the Greens have made. It may work for them. But it may well not work for them too. And if they are wrong, they will not only lose lower house contests they will lose Senators too. There will be great rejoicing if this occurs.
Will be interesting ,if Turnbull does win, to see the numbers in a joint sitting. He probably will still not be able to pass the ABCC legislation.
“Sometimes the basics need to be repeated.”
Guytaur don’t be a smart arse. You said in your post “Labor could retake Melbourne”- it could have been interpreted as retaking the seat of Melbourne.
Also your suggestion that more people leaving ALP to go to the Greens is simplistic and misguided. Largely the Greens are building up inner city are highly paid professionals who identify with the Greens on environment, gay marriage, and to a lesser extent asylum seekers. But they can’t identify with Labor in terms of unions and industrial relations wages battles. There people who like Green kind of issues but can’t relate or are not interested in Labor’s mission to help the working class battler.
Also my name is DAVID not DAVUD. Sometimes the basics need to be repeated.
Guytaur,
At least we KNOW you are a Green supporter now. Because no one, unless they were a supporter of The Greens, would say this:
Also there is a reason why Labor seats are more likely to go Green before the LNP seats. Social policies like supporting unions.
Nor categorise my support of the Labor Party against Green undermining as a ‘rant’.
Bluey Bulletin No 54 Day 54 of 103
DEBATE
Bluey reckons that Turnbull was on a hiding to nothing and that he did not get nothing.
BACKFLIP
Bluey notes that Turnbull partially backflips on pathology cuts. Bluey thinks this may be the first significant policy backflip by either Party during the election campaign. Bluey notes that no-one actually seems to be too sure what it means for anybody. Bluey notes that the ‘agreement’ includes a commitment by Turnbull to have a think about something or other until after the election. Sure. The total sum being played around with is in the order of $650,000,000 and Bluey would like to know how the agreement changed the Budget numbers.
WHAT’S IN A NAME
Abbott reckons the Abbott-Turnbull Government. Bluey reckons that that would make it the Abbott-Truss – Turnbull-Joyce Government. Not one of them lasted in their jobs for three years.
POLLING
Queensland: horrible one day and crap the next.
Bluy says Aaaaaaargggghhhhhh!
NSW marginals are looking OK, by comparison.
ENSTSCH BAGS CREDDO
Bluey reckons just lovely. Keep it coming. Disunity is death.
DUTTON BASTARDISES YET ANOTHER PREGNANT WOMAN
Having decided not to appeal his conviction for bastardising one pregnant woman, Dutton is involved in bastardising yet another pregnant woman. The mother and the baby are both in a critical condition. Bluey notes that Dutton reckons it is all good. But then he would.
SO SAD
Bluey knows that McCrann is always depressed about something or other. ATM he is depressed about Turnbull. McCrann reckons that Turnbull is a political and policy dud. Bluey reckons that this is the very first time that he and McCrann are soulmates.
TAKEN DOWN A PEG
Bluey reckons it could not happen to a nastier person – Kroger has been shoved out to the back paddock in some internal Liberal shit fight or other. Griffin or somebody is going to do some stuff that Kroger was supposed to be doing.
DIGGERS AND DEALERS
Mining industry spokespersons have expressed concern about Labor’s opposition to giving free money to foreign owners of Australia’s miners at the expense of investment in education and health. Bluey reckons they would.
BILL HECKLED BY CRYPTO-GREENS ABOUT ASYLUM SEEKERS.
Bluey reckons that this is good for Shorten.
MR TURNBULL HECKLED ABOUT HIS OBSCENE WEALTH
Bluey reckons that this is good for Shorten as well.
SEA LEVEL RISE HALTED!
Bluey is very optimistic about this late breaking development. He notes that the Coalition has fixed global sea level rise problems by sacking the CSIRO expert who was measuring it. Where is Hunt? Where is Turnbull’s emphasis on innovation? Where is their concern about global warming? Why do neither of them give a rat’s about the sacking of one of our national living scientific treasures?
Verdict for the Day: Evens.
Cumulative tally: Labor 34 Liberals 20
This story of Duncan Storrar is instructive. It appears that if you an annoy Big Money or their political wing (a.k.a. The ‘Liberal’ Party) to the extent that it gains a national profile, expect to be investigated by Big Money’s propaganda wing a.k.a. Newscorp. If they find anything dodgy in your padt, or anything that can be used as a basis of attack, expect to be exposed and publically attacked.
We’ve seen it before. Remember the dusgusting attacks on Gillian Griggs. Remember ‘Carbon Cate’. Remember the Right’s reaction to ‘Illridwithyou’. In the latter cases, they couldn’t find anything real ir capable of being beaten up so they resorted to ridicule, class warfare and dogwhistling.
The Liberal-Murdoch dirt units exist.
nicholas @ #388 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:03 pm
FFS. The only fundamental change needed to stop the neoliberal economic orthodoxy throttling our country is the removal of the Greens and their self serving agenda of having no intention to govern anything – THAT’S complacency!
Airlines
He will not be voting informal.
Briefly
Encouraging to hear
Does anyone have Damon Johnstons phone number? He is the editor of the herald sun. I would like to call the c#*t at 3 am.
Is it wrong to await Bluey’s daily verdict with the same anticipation as actual polls?
steve777 @ #422 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:38 pm
Very well said!
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/05/14/galaxy-54-46-federal-coalition-queensland/comment-page-9/#comment-2393347
The Greens would not run dead to help the Liberals. They are putting resources into trying to unseat Liberal MP Kelly O`Dwyer.
https://www.facebook.com/greens.jason/videos/890159911106781/
gecko @ #427 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:49 pm
ROFL
I particularly enjoyed this bit…
Bluey is right again!
“I just don’t see the Greens acting in their interest as being against the Labor party.”
The big issue is that lots and lots and lots of voters vote against their own best interests. Propaganda as an electoral tool works very well in deceiving even intelligent people. Currently, people vote Green on an idea/mission statement that has been propagated over time but is no longer wholly based on fact. As time has gone on ‘politics’ has invaded the idea and distorted it.
I grant metamorphosis can be said of any political party, but the original Green concept was, overall, fairly singular in nature.
I don’t doubt that in the Greens brains trust, there is a goal of gaining govt. But this is truly impossible as the vote hovers in or around 10-12% and has done for a long time. People say Labor has a reputation for being less economically able than the Libs (wrong, but it is the perception) and the perception of the Greens is that they have NO economic nous at all.
And since it generally comes down to economics in an election, this strands them on the outer no matter how well intentioned they might be.
This is why, though I do agree with many of their ideas, I really think they would be better served concentrating on the senate where they CAN have some influence on policy.
gecko @ #427 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:49 pm
No. This shows a very clear view of the important things in a poll bludger’s life. Bluey has his finger on the pulse.
But keep an eye on Bludger Track. The trend is your friend.
Thanks William, and thanks Bluey.
I find it interesting that Bluey has a persona independent of his creator, in the same way as Kermit on Sesame Street was independent of his creator.
We live in interesting times, when Bluey and Kermit (and Siri for that matter) have influence and gravitas and importance beyond what their creators envisioned.
Bluey’s wrap is the bookend to the day , the other of course being the Dawn Patrol.
Don
Ahem. Bluey says thank you and respectfully asks would you please not be anthropocentric about Bluey. Bluey reckons he has several tentacles on three pulses, occies having three hearts instead of the one that most humanoids have, and none at all in the case of Dutton.
Kroger is being Kroger, talking shit. The Libs will never preference the Greens, but the idea they may diverts ALP resources for a few weeks. The Greens may run open tickets as they have in the past, but it Makes little difference.
The Greens problem is where do they get preferences from, the minors have the snits over voting changes and if they end up 2CP with the ALP the get none.
Remember Sophie Mirrabella got a higher primary vote than Adam Bandt.
I think Bluey adds a bit of real world perspective to the whole political debate here on PB.
I look forward to it every evening. I am too engrossed and obsessed with politics to really have any idea what the real world is actually thinking and how the everyday voter may be reacting to events.
I do not know how he does it but bluey cuts to the chase and has his finger (s) on the pulse.
So, many thanks to bluey and to Boerwar for allowing him to appear !
Cheers.
Doyley
I will pass along your kind words to Bluey but do so with a certain circumspection, occies being rather big headed to start with.
victoria @ #425 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 7:46 pm
victoria, the Green calculus is easy to understand. Their franchise is weak and getting weaker. Despite the failures of the most reactionary and deceitful LNP government in post-war experience, their PV has at best stagnated while Labor’s has recovered. Along with the LNP, they have to reckon on the return of a new Labor Government.
In the run-up to the election, the G’s know they really don’t have much to offer either major, but they have just enough to be relevant to the LNP. They have an offer of “open tickets”. It’s a fairly paltry offer, really. But it may be just what the Liberals need in a few tight seats. In exchange they get some Lib prefs in a few hard-fought anti-Labor scraps. If this works out for both sides, they each get what they want. The Libs get to stay in office. The Greens get some public funding $ and something in the lower house to cover their expected Senate losses. (They really made a serious mistake when they guessed there would be no DD).
By contrast, the Greens have nothing to offer Labor. Labor do not need the Greens. The dependency is the other way around. The Greens need Labor patronage….and Labor cannot afford to bestow it, not after the last time. There is no G-saving deal between Labor and the Greens. None. The G’s are just about irrelevant to Labor, something that has been made quite clear to the G’s by the ability of Labor to attract former Greens to its lists.
So the Greens have made a choice that may prove fateful for them. Will their Labor-positive echelons forgive them if Green prefs sustain the Libs in power? Will they? Or will they condemn the G’s for their betrayal? We will soon see.
poroti @ #434 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 8:04 pm
Indeed.
I also find it interesting that we have people in the world who give so much to others, with nothing in return except heartfelt thanks.
Sometimes everything works out well. Humans are wonderful creatures. Gives you hope.
That full story from Andrew Elder is a real cracker!
It echoes my feeling that journos are trying too hard to find the colour & movement in an election campaign instead of ‘following’ the policy and in doing so, they are making themselves redundant.
Nicholas of the greens is a true twat.
briefly By contrast, the Greens have nothing to offer Labor. Labor do not need the Greens.
Perhaps so, but Green preferences are critical to Labor in many seats. How do you square away those dependencies with your other comments?
jenauthor,
This is why, though I do agree with many of their ideas, I really think they would be better served concentrating on the senate where they CAN have some influence on policy.
Yes, this focus by The Greens on getting HOR seats, unless it is for the purpose of influencing a Hung Parliament, which is what I think it is, is essentially a vanity project because if they go on present performance they may obtain government in about, oh, 2200! 😀
Catmomma, normally I find your posts very positive. You seem a bit muted about Labors prospects. Are you worried about the AS issue, and do you think that will significantly harm Labors chances.
Bluey is an even more welcome sight than Terry McCrann finally getting something right in his life and that being that Malcolm’s a Dud.
Does it get better?
don @ #443 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 8:26 pm
If the Greens were to generally direct prefs away from Labor their primary support will collapse. Their volunteer base will resign. Their donor net will largely evaporate. Their own PV and the flow of $ that follows their PV will disappear. Those resources and their related votes would self-re-assign to Labor more or less en masse.
From the standpoint of voters, the Greens are a proxy for Labor…an oblique means of voting Labor while also “withholding” something from Labor. If this were to change fundamentally, if the Greens were to become a means for expressing support for the LNP they would have to entirely reinvent their voter base and their brand.
The preferential voting system allows the Greens to appeal for PV support. By running in lower house seats and staffing most of the booths most of the time they are able to attract enough support to win Senate seats. But this is only possible…only practicable….because voters can also support Labor. The moment a Green vote becomes an anti-Labor vote, the machinery will break down.
The Greens cannot escape this. They have positioned themselves this way for most of their existence. They rely on collaboration with Labor for their popularity. They may not like it, but it is what they chose long ago.
If the Greens were thinking that it might be to their advantage to help the ‘Liberals’, maybe they should consider the fate of the Australian Democrates or the UK Liberals.
roger bottomley @ #445 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 8:32 pm
Yes.
It was pretty devastating to hear Malcolm Turnbull turn what is also it seems, a questioning of our treatment of asylum seekers in his own party, into a lethal attack line today against Labor:
“Labor cannot be trusted on our Borders.
Labor cannot be trusted on the Economy.”
Neither of which statements are true but they make for a good strap line, repeated endlessly.
There are plenty of valid criticisms to be made of the Greens under Di Natale, but I swear the Labor supporters on this site do an incredible job of making Labor criticism of the Greens look completely unhinged.
Quoting Jim Casey out of context because you want him to have said something that he didn’t actually say is, er, not very convincing.
And then the same people turn around and wail about the Greens being allegedly anti-union, despite the fact that a) not to state the obvious, but Casey is a union leader and b) the Greens vote to the right of Labor on IR practically never (I certainly can’t think of a case off the top of my head).
Labor is lucky they don’t have people like this doing their messaging or they may as well give up on the inner cities.