Galaxy: 54-46 to federal Coalition in Queensland

After a week spent splashing cash at marginal seats in South Australia and Tasmania, new polls arrive from Queensland and western Sydney to steady the Coalition’s nerves.

The Courier-Mail today brings the Coalition one of its most encouraging poll results in a while, crediting them with leads on federal voting intention in Queensland of 54-46 on two-party preferred, and 46% to 33% on the primary vote. This compares with 57.0-43.0 at the 2013 election, and primary votes of Coalition 45.7% and Labor 29.8%. The only seats a uniform swing of 3% would net for Labor would be the Rockhampton region seat of Capricornia (margin 0.8%), which Labor has only lost three times since 1961, and the northern Brisbane seat of Petrie (0.5%). The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday evening from a sample of 1176.

Also from Galaxy, the Daily Telegraph has electorate-level polling showing the Liberals leading 54-46 in Lindsay and by unspecified amounts in Gilmore and Reid, with 50-50 results from Banks and Dobell and a 51-49 lead for Labor in Macarthur, the scene of last night’s leaders forum. More precise figures on that will be available at some point, hopefully soon. The polls were automated phone surveys of around 500 respondents per electorate.

I’m aware at least one other big set of regional polling that will be with us this evening, so stay tuned for that one. Other news:

• The small sample of attendees at last night’s leaders forum came down 42-29 in favour of Bill Shorten over Malcolm Turnbull.

• Family First Senator Bob Day’s constitutional challenge against Senate election reforms got short shrift from the High Court in yesterday’s judgement, which said in reference to the plaintiff’s submission: “None of the above arguments has any merit and each can be dealt with briefly.”

• The government has maintained its recently developed interest in South Australia with a visit to the state yesterday by the Prime Minister, in which he committed to funding half of an $85 million rail project connecting Flinders University to the central business district, with a scheduled completion in late 2018. This helpfully runs through the electorate of Boothby, to be vacated at the election by Liberal member Andrew Southcott.

• Labor and Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie have attacked the federal and Tasmanian state governments over $22 million in grants from the Tasmanian Jobs and Investment Fund that were announced this week. Most of the money had been freed up by the demise of a proposed tourism visitors centre at the Cadbury’s factory in the northern Hobart suburb of Claremont, in Wilkie’s seat of Denison, but the bulk of the new projects were in the three marginal Liberal seats in the state’s north. The Hobart Mercury reports that $6.29 million has gone to Lyons, $5.55 million to Bass and $3.59 million to Braddon, compared with $3.6 million in Denison and $2.91 million in Labor-held Franklin.

• Some anonymous public-spirited individuals have put together an outstanding interactive data visualisation site through which you can explore disclosures of political donations.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

571 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 7 of 12
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  1. Labour, England:
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/14/labour-struggling-attract-working-class-voters-analysis-fabian-society

    Labour’s performance in last week’s council elections suggests Jeremy Corbyn’s party is struggling to attract the working-class voters who traditionally formed the core of its support, according to a detailed analysis of the results.

    A report for the Fabian Society by the political analyst Lewis Baston examines the voting patterns in the marginal constituencies Labour would have to win to achieve a parliamentary majority.

    Baston’s analysis shows that Labour performed well in what he calls “the most modern bits of England”, and badly in its heartlands.
    ::::
    Andrew Harrop, the Fabian general secretary, said: “The results may not have been a disaster for Labour, but there is no sign that Jeremy Corbyn will do any better than Ed Miliband in winning the sorts of seats which Labour needs to govern.” He added: “With the party moving neither forwards nor backwards, Labour is no closer to resolving its internal conflicts. These results simply kick the can down the road.”

  3. GK

    Seat based polls didn’t perform well in 2013 as far as I know. Any result should be taken with a huge grain of salt

    10.4 on that.

  4. There are a lot of Greens members disgruntled at the party’s partnership with the Coalition in giving them a double-dissolution trigger rather than debate marriage equality and political donations reform.

    Sarah Hanson Young is tipped as likely to be a casualty of the changes to Senate voting, thus conveniently ridding Di Natale of a high-profile rival. Di Natale’s apparent dislike of strong women and his disposal of them, such as Christine Milne, and the likely Hanson Young has made some wonder if he shares Abbott’s views on women.

    http://wixxyleaks.com/the-struggle-within-leaks-highlight-major-issues-within-the-greens/

    The more I see and hear of Di Natale the more I dislike him. But it’s true that the divisions and the leaks have certainly intensified since he’s become the Greens leader.

  5. If she isn’t re-elected, SHY won’t be missed by the way. Certainly not by me. She’s done SFA to help the country achieve a workable, practical and sensible approach to asylum seekers.

  6. ‘fess

    The more I see and hear of Di Natale the more I dislike him.

    He certainly comes across as a sneering ar#ehole.

  11. CTar:

    I don’t know what it is but the new generation of Greens seem to lack humility. Or the ability to at least even appear humble.

  12. Terry McCrann: Malcolm is a dud.

    Shame about that. I thought Bill had a chance. But with McCrann dissing Turnbull… well, it’s a bit like Malcolm Mackerras telling you.

  13. If Turnbull keeps tinkering with things in the Budget, people might start to think there’s something wrong with it…

  14. Pegasus: Jeremy Corbyn won’t win any general elections in the UK.
    They need to recruit Dan Jarvis for the 2020 election

  15. I was talking with a friend last night who had, until this week, intended to vote for Turnbull. He had rather thought that Turnbull was going to usher in a new dawn of rational politics.
    This week my friend experienced, almost by accident, his first real exposure to Turnbull the substance as opposed to the imagined Turnbull.
    My friend has a close relation who is a single mother.
    It had dawned on them both that the single mother would be worse off in terms of the changes to social security, that there was going to be no tax relief for her and, on top of that, her child care costs were not going to be addressed by Turnbull until mid-way through 2017, if ever.
    Bang.

  16. Evan Parsons
    G’day old mate. I remember you from the old OzPolitics days. Pre 2007.
    I went under the name ‘Ikey Solomon’ (for memory). It was a great community. A real hoot watching Howard get roasted.
    I’d love to chat with you. Not here. Here you get ignored if you’re not in the ‘in crowd’ .
    I’m easy to find on Facebook. David Fletcher. Works at Ausply Big River. Wagga Wagga. ABC blackout avatar.
    Cheers mate!

  17. Zoomster: I’m guessing there’ll be some tinkering with the superannuation changes, to mollify right wing talk back radio shockjocks like the 2GB lot

  19. EP
    That would be extremely risky for Turnbull, IMO. It will confirm the general view that he cannot stick to a policy.

  20. David Fletcher – G’day to you too mate, I’ll look you up on Facebook, but happy to chat here too of course.

  22. Boerwar – Will be interesting to see if Turnball goes on 2GB anytime soon, he’s boycotted them since he became PM, much to the chagrin of Jones, Hadley, Price and Bolt, who were all used to Abbott crawling to them shamelessly previously

  25. Ordinarily it would be called “tinkering” but when Turnbull does it, maybe it should be referred to as “Thinkering?”

  32. I don’t mean that they’ll get 2 quotas right off the bat (especially in WA) but they should be able to return 2 Senators.

  34. Colton please point out where those advocating for asylum seekers have said that those in African camps should “cop it”?

    You basically slandered the advocates you referred to by name, and others, of being racists who seek to prolong the suffering of African asylum seekers, for some kind of benefit to what you term “the asylum seeker industry” (drawing on the kind of language used by extremist xenophobes) and their own “vested interests, if not for their direct racial prejudice which you claim that they hold against people based on skin colour.

    Your post is a sickening stream of disgraceful slurs, probably liable to be considered legally defamatory by the three people you mention by name, and not founded on any kind of evidence.

    You should request that the post be deleted

  36. Robert Simms in no chance in SA, the Greens voted to dump him.

    Every SA Greens member was able to fill out a secret ballot paper to vote on the order of the senate ticket.

    True grassroots party democracy.

  37. lizzie @ #281 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 4:21 pm

    Con ‏@con_n_g · 18m18 minutes ago
    There’s 1 question re #DuncanStorrar that MUST be answered: how the hell did the Murdoch Press get access to his criminal record? #auspol

    That’s exactly what I thought. No one, not even Jon Faine, thought to ask THAT question of the Herald Sun and it’s editor.

    I don’t think Duncan Storrer has ever strangled a cat though because his wife or girlfriend spurned him.

  39. pegasus @ #301 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 5:15 pm

    Labour, England:
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/14/labour-struggling-attract-working-class-voters-analysis-fabian-society

    Labour’s performance in last week’s council elections suggests Jeremy Corbyn’s party is struggling to attract the working-class voters who traditionally formed the core of its support, according to a detailed analysis of the results.
    A report for the Fabian Society by the political analyst Lewis Baston examines the voting patterns in the marginal constituencies Labour would have to win to achieve a parliamentary majority.
    Baston’s analysis shows that Labour performed well in what he calls “the most modern bits of England”, and badly in its heartlands.
    ::::
    Andrew Harrop, the Fabian general secretary, said: “The results may not have been a disaster for Labour, but there is no sign that Jeremy Corbyn will do any better than Ed Miliband in winning the sorts of seats which Labour needs to govern.” He added: “With the party moving neither forwards nor backwards, Labour is no closer to resolving its internal conflicts. These results simply kick the can down the road.”

    Because we really need to know that The Greens care to inform us about the problems in the English Labour Party

  42. Pegasus
    By voting I meant in the Senate, allowing a DD by passing the voting changes. This ensured the loss of seats.

    No minor party will put the greens in their top six. I doubt the Libs will either, the effective optional preference voting will hurt the greens.

  44. c@tmomma @ #337 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 6:19 pm

    lizzie @ #281 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 4:21 pm

    Con ‏@con_n_g · 18m18 minutes ago
    There’s 1 question re #DuncanStorrar that MUST be answered: how the hell did the Murdoch Press get access to his criminal record? #auspol

    That’s exactly what I thought. No one, not even Jon Faine, thought to ask THAT question of the Herald Sun and it’s editor.
    I don’t think Duncan Storrer has ever strangled a cat though because his wife or girlfriend spurned him.

    Court cases are reported in the press and newspapers keep files.

  45. Personally, I find international politics news (especially about voting, being on a blog about psephology and all) pretty relevant, and I liked it.

  48. pegasus @ #298 Saturday, May 14, 2016 at 5:05 pm

    WixxyLeaks written by Peter Wicks.
    Is he still a a current member of the Labor Party and two unions, the MEAA and the USU?
    http://wixxyleaks.com/wixxys-royal-commission-witness-statement/

    And?

    I take it from your slur of Peter Wicks that The Greens are not supporters of the Unions?

    Interesting.

    I know The Greens would prefer to cozy up to the Liberals under the leadership of Richard Di Natale but I thought they were at least maintaining the pretense that they were in favour of the Union Movement.

  50. briefly,
    And now, at 5.15 we have had the main protagonist and cheerleader for The Greens on Pollbludger admit that they are Anti Union.

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