First up, the latest dispatches from the front:
• The preference deal with the Greens being pursued by the Victorian Liberals at the behest of the party’s state president, Michael Kroger, is meeting resistance from other branches of the party. Rick Wallace of The Australian today cites unidentified Liberal sources expressing displeasure at the idea, and gets Tasmanian Senator Eric Abetz to reiterate that the “very strong view” of his own state division was that the Greens should be put last. The party’s federal director, Tony Nutt, issued a statement yesterday stressing that no decision had been made.
• Labor hit a spot of bother today in the Townsville electorate of Herbert, which it has never quite been able to pick off since it fell to the Liberals in the 1996 landslide. Bill Shorten’s Queensland road trip brought him to the electorate today, but a doorstop he conducted together with the Labor candidate, Cathy O’Toole, was dominated by O’Toole’s involving in a protest at Liberal member Ewen Jones’s electorate office in February pleading for “a more humane policy for refugees”.
• Apropos Dennis Jensen’s announcement he will run as an independent in Tangney, the Australian Parliamentary Library reviews “the electoral fortunes of MPs who left major parties and contested the next election as Independents”, going back to 1949. Out of 17 identified examples, 12 failed to win their seats (several of whom left office under a cloud); three won re-election but were then defeated at the next election subsequently; and another won re-election and then retired at the election subsequently. Only Bob Katter went on to lasting electoral success.
Now to polling. BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest Essential Research, along with state data from Ipsos, Essential and ReachTEL. The Coalition is now credited with a lead of 50.5-49.5, which is full point better than the pre-budget reading from last week. That translates into a net gain of three since last week on the seat projection, with two gains in New South Wales and one each in Victoria and the Northern Territory balanced by a loss in Queensland. At some point in the not distant future, I’ll start including state-level primary vote breakdowns and two-party results from respondent-allocated trends as well as previous election preferences, but for the time being the display looks like so:
Two new polls were released yesterday, and I have a bit left to say about one from the day before:
• Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average has the Labor lead down from 52-48 to 51-49, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 42%, Labor steady on 38% and the Greens steady on 10%. The poll also records 20% approval and 29% disapproval of the budget, with 35% opting for neither and 15% for don’t know. Twenty-one per cent felt the budget had made them more confident in the government, compared with 32% for less confident and 35% for makes no difference. However, most of the specific measures were well supported; 69% for internships for the young unemployed versus 14% opposed; 72% for the higher tax on cigarettes, versus 21% against; 62% for capping super tax concessions, versus 21% against; and 50% in favour of company tax cuts, versus 34% against. Opinion was evenly divided on the tax cut for those on more than $80,000, at 43% for and 44% against, and there was a predictable result for “cuts of $1.2 billion to aged care providers”. A bonus survey question provided exclusively to SBS recorded a view that the budget would make it harder for young people looking to buy their first home and gain a higher education, migrant families seeking education jobs, and people saving for their retirement – but there was a relatively good result for “young people trying to find a job”, presumably reflecting the internships scheme. The poll also recorded 48% opposition to bringing asylum seekers from Manus Island to Australia with 30% in support, and 39% holding the view that conditions in detention centres were poor, versus 32% for good.
• The Guardian Australia yesterday published a poll by Lonergan Research showing 50-50 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. It also found only 12% felt they would be better off because of the budget compared with 38% for worse off, and that 29% said it made them more likely to vote for the Coalition compared with 47% for less likely. The poll was automated phone survey of 1841 respondents conducted Friday to Sunday.
• I hadn’t mentioned the budget response results from Newspoll, which are worth a closer look. Among other things, there are breakdowns by income cohort, which you don’t often see in published polling. Those on higher incomes ($100,000 and lower) were more disposed to have an overall favourable view than those on lower incomes ($50,000 or less), but not by a great order of magnitude: 39% good and 22% in the former case, 31% good and 22% bad in the latter. However, bigger disparities were recorded on personal impact, with 11% of low-income earners expecting to be better off and 45% expecting to be worse off, compared with 29% and 27% for higher income earners. There are also interesting differences by age, with the most favourable responses coming from the young and the least favourable from the middle-aged, with the older cohort landing in between. Charts below put all this into the context of the regular post-budget Newspoll questions going back to 1988 (although there’s a slight change this year and that there are no longer neutral as distinct from uncommitted response options), and show the historic relationship between the “own financial position” and “economic impact” questions, with this year’s question identified in red. On pretty much every measure, this was an average response to a budget, although the plus 5% net rating for economic impact compares slightly unfavourably with an average of plus 10.9%. Its also a weaker than usual result for a Coalition budget, which have had historically better results (part of which is to do with the Howard government holding the reins in the pre-GFC boom years).
George Masterman QC, who was NSW Ombudsman from 1981 to 1987, carried out a detailed investigation of the Ryan case, and concluded, with absolute certainty, that Ryan was not guilty, and that the guard in question was shot by one of his fellow guards from a high tower. He concluded that for Ryan to have done it Ryan would have had to be several feet in the air when he fired the shot, or the dead guard would have had to be at an angle of 30 degrees to the ground. Eye witnesses attested to the fact that neither of these were the case. Bur Bolte got his judicial murder, because that was the sort of man he was.
Thanks Zoomster – very handy.
How likely is it that Dodson will be re-elected at No. 3?
zoomster:
Am I right in assuming that Alex and Bronwyn Gallacher are related?
confessions @ #1353 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 7:27 pm
The ALP would have to get about 20% to be in with a shot, and 23.1% to be certain of Dodson as a Senator. I’d say he’s f ine.
Bluey Bulletin No 52 Day 52 of 103
BIRTHDAY BOY
Bluey wishes Bill Shorten happy birthday and many happy returns. Bluey noted that while Turnbull has dispensed with Lucy, Shorten has started to sport Chloe. Bluey reckons wise move by both men.
DOGS BREKKY
Bluey cannot recall a more agenda addled election campaign. The hares are leaping all over the paddock: MUA, Panama, Red Jim Casey, Greens/Liberal dirty deal, Super revolt, 7/11, cheating Pathway kids out of fair wages, the Ashby Brough Pyne Roy corruption affair…
THE UGLY AUSTRALIAN
Bluey reckons that George Christensen is gold medallist in the national ugly Australian championships for being a sectarian ratbag. And which soulmate goes up to cosset his bosom buddy? Abbott!
FOX MEET HENHOUSE
First the Caymans. Then 7/11. Then the Virgin Islands. Then the Panama Papers. Now fool’s gold in Russia. No wonder this chap does not want a Royal Commission into the Banks and the Finance industry. Bluey is tickled pink that the Sukhoi Log field may well contain only copper pyrites. Turnbull was skun by shiftier spivs than himself.
MUA MAN
Bluey reckons here today, gone tomorrow, good bye, thanks for coming, and try the truth next time.
RED JIM CASEY
Prefers Tony Abbott as prime minister.
SMASH THE POOR
Modelling shows what we all knew was happening. Bluey reckons that it is good to have it out in the open. This is a class warfare budget. Single parent families will lose 3.6% of their average incomes. The poorest fifth of households will lose 2.7% of incomes. Relatively well-off couples will gain $392. And those on a million a year will gain $17,000 a year.
20 YEAR RULE
Sinodinos was apparently unaware of his hypocrisy when he made this rule up this morning. Bluey reckons he probably forgot.
ROYAL COMMISSION
Bluey wants a Royal Commission into Turnbull.
NOT MELINDA
Bluey heard that Shorten has been harassed on the campaign trail by a distraught multi-billionaire. The multi-billionaire complained bitterly that the proposed extension of the deficit levy would mean that the multi-billionaire would have only $20,000 a week to spend after tax had been evaded successfully.
Verdict for the Day: Everyone lost. Evens.
Cumulative tally: Labor 32.5 Liberals 19.5
WB,
I have posted the link twice already.
You just seem to have missed it.
If you don’t think it is important, then that’s your news judgement. However, I reckon it’s going to make a difference in seats like Melbourne and Batman based on previous elections.
Just saying!
Yabba88
Thanks for this info. I did not know about the Masterman investigation.
FREDNK – Who the f… is the Australian to talk about people not paying tax. News corpse is a BILLION dollar organisation that pays not tax. Unbelievable effrontery.
I just saw a snippet of Turnbull’s unplanned encounter with a single mu. He sounded and looked like an insincere sermonizer.
I’d call this day a big win for labor. A single mother handed Malcolm his arse on a plate and tax havens reared their ugly heads. Anything Labor suffered was a mere flesh wound. And, as Laura Tingle is finally working out: the electorate is getting to see that Malcolm is a dill and Shorten can really relate to people.
Toorak Toff
Labor is on the ball in my electorate of Griffith.
I received their postal vote application yesterday, and the LNP’s today.
Are you in a LNP electorate?
Thanks Airlines.
Not sure that its failure to get mentioned in my non-existent update of the past two days’ events should surprise you quite so, GG.
The budget which hits the poor worse than others…
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/12/australian-budget-2016-hits-poor-families-hardest-modelling-shows#comment-74068162
WILLIAM – I thought you had Sco-Mo’s calendric problem
WB,
It was news before your non existent updates. In fact it was news before your existent updates.
I think that is my point.
Oh Bluey, where art thou?
Fair enough. Maybe it will be in the next one, maybe not.
Everything negative about Turnbull and the Libs is good, the trickle down effect.
Thanks Boerwar. I’m puzzling over Bluey’s assessment of ‘evens’, but whatever. Having been a work all day and not yet having seen the news, I’m not really in a position to comment about the day’s events.
WB,
That’s the most exciting announcement in the election so far.
Cheers.
confessions @ #1353 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 7:27 pm
The first four should all be elected. If Labor’s primary returns to the mid-30’s, a fifth will also likely be elected.
Peta Credlin makes her first usefull contribution….
[Tony Abbott’s former chief of staff Peta Credlin
In a damning assessment, Ms Credlin, who lost her job along with Mr Abbott in the September coup that installed Mr Turnbull as Prime Minister, poured scorn on the tactical retreat. Speaking on Sky News, she said that the decision to abandon a walk through of a shopping precinct with Lindsay backbencher Fiona Scott sent a bad message to voters.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with Liberal candidate Fiona Scott in Sydney on Wednesday.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with Liberal candidate Fiona Scott in Sydney on Wednesday. Photo: Andrew Meares
“I was surprised that they were flat-footed,” said Ms Credlin of the Turnbull campaign team.
“If it’s known that you were going to do a street walk in Penrith, the last thing you want to do, ‘Mr Harbour-side Mansion’, is look like you don’t know and you’re not welcome in Western Sydney.”
]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/peta-credlin-questions-campaign-tactics-of-mr-harbourside-mansion-malcolm-turnbull-20160512-gotu72.html#ixzz48QvSQTeY
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/12/election-2016-can-ken-wyatt-hasluck-first-federal-indigenous-frontbencher-hold-his-seat
I’m looking forward to the issue of Panama Hats to all members of the Labor Campaign team.
Testing.
I have bee having lots of trouble logging in. I keep getting told I am trying to do too many tasks or something like that. But I am persistent 🙂
Julie Bishop and Dutton are far more outraged and upset by the alleged insult than by what is actually happening. Clear what their priorities are:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/julie-bishop-says-alp-candidate-should-apologise-for-nazi-remarks-20160512-gotu75.html
Yah life is good.
rhwombat at 7.32
kevin-one-seven @ #1361 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 7:36 pm
I think Bluey tries to be even-handed. But he has eight hands and seven of them are right hands and only one of them is a left hand.
C
Both Shorten and Turnbull were dogged by distractions.
davidwh @ #1377 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 7:46 pm
Every time I try to log on on Firefox, it tells me it can’t do it. I then go back to the previous screen, wait for it to fully load and then refresh/reload. That works for me. Idiotic and tedious work around but it works every time for me.
briefly:
I’m used to Labor doing poorly over here, hence my pessimism.
davidwh @ #1377 Thursday, May 12, 2016 at 7:46 pm
This is a known WordPress issue. The crikey gerbils should have sorted it out weeks ago, but they seem to be completely unfamiliar with WordPress.
Boerwar:
I see. That make sense I suppose.
Bluey reckons that interview after interview involving Shorten were about Brown and about asylum seekers. Good for the Gubbies. Bad for Labor. The only possible benefit was that Brown was sanctioned with despatch.
Turnbull smiled quite unconvincingly when quizzed about Star Resources. Bluey reckons that the MSM are yet to get to taws with Turnbull. Bluey reckons Turnbull has questions to answer.
One good thing about today was the Greens gave Labor a bit of a rest.
Tomorrow is another day.
Thanks folks I will continue to be persistent.
Re the election, in the absence of anything really big, I think it’s too early to be scoring the campaign. I doubt too many people are engaged over seven weeks out.
William in today’s Crikey on the likelihood of Fremantle going to the Greens with the disendorsement of Brown:
I enter my name and password. Nothing happens except the pooter indicates that it is thinking, thinking, thinking…
Then I click on the Bludger site and it takes me straight to Bludger.
Just saw Malcolm talk about the Panama papers. He was saying that there was no report of wrong doing (or WTTE).
I noticed his body language and eye movement. Looked dodgy to me as though he was expecting someone to pull him up on that statement.
Some obvious questions missed by Leigh on 7-Eleven, the most obvious being, how can we tell that 7-Eleven has paid people what they deserve? Who’s going to review their decisions? The idea the chairman put forward that they have to clean up their own mess by handling it internally rather than by an independent panel, that this is how they will regain trust, is ludicrous. Why didn’t she ask him if he’d agree to allow Alan Fels and his panel to review their decisions?
BW
That is how I do it.
I discovered that way while hitting every button on keyboard
Sorry Bluey, much appreciated: memo to self: refresh before posting.
This is an absolute cracker!
Satire, but still a good question, which journos might ask him to explain. What a dodgy spiv!
http://www.theshovel.com.au/2016/05/12/turnbull-on-panama-papers-virgin-islands-most-logical-place-to-set-up-a-siberian-mining-company/
RHW
No worries.
I have the site ‘remember me’ to log on so I never have to re-enter my login details.
I saw a bit of analysis somewhere of informal voting. It said that the ACT had the highest percentage of deliberate informal voting in the last Federal election.
heh heh
GG
Excellent.