It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy

The official start of the election campaign has been marked by three new polls confirming the impression of a very tight race.

As the campaign for a July 2 double dissolution election officially begins, three big polling guns have sounded:

• In The Australian, Newspoll records a 51-49 lead to Labor, unchanged on the last result three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Malcolm Turnbull is on 38% approval (up two) and 49% disapproval (steady), with Bill Shorten respectively on 33% (up two) and 52% (steady). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-27, little changed on the 47-28 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of about 1739. Hat tip: James J in comments.

• In the Fairfax papers, Ipsos goes the other way, with a 51-49 lead to the Coalition after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 14%. Despite that, there’s been a big improvement in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, his approval up five to 38% and disapproval down six to 49%. Turnbull’s ratings, which have been markedly better from Ipsos than Newspoll, have him down three on approval to 48%, and up two on disapproval to 40%. The poll also found the budget to be deemed fair by 37% and unfair by 43%, which compares with 52% and 33% after last year’s budget, and 33% and 63% after the disaster the year before (when the series was conducted by Nielsen rather than Ipsos). Fifty-three per cent of respondents expected the Coalition would win the election, compared with 24% for Labor.

• News Corp’s Sunday tabloids also had a Galaxy poll overnight that had the result at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. While the Newspoll and Galaxy result both come from the same firm and involved a combination of online and phone polling, the phone polling for the Galaxy result was, I believe, live interview rather than automated. The Galaxy also found low recognition of Scott Morrison as Treasurer (48%) and Chris Bowen as Shadow Treasurer (18%), and had a few attidinal questions whose wording Labor wouldn’t have minded: “Do you consider it fair or unfair that only workers earning more than $80,000 a year got a tax cut in the budget?”, recording 28% for fair and 62% for unfair, and “do you support or oppose Labor’s plan to leave the deficit levy in place so that workers earning over $180,000 a year pay more tax?”, which got 63% for support and 21% for oppose. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1270.

I’ll be running all that through the Bludgermator a little later to produce BludgerTrack projections, so watch this space.

UPDATE: BludgerTrack has had a feel of the four new opinion polls and found them to be, if not exactly budget bouncy, then tending to ameliorate what was probably an excessively favourable reading for Labor last week. The Coalition is now credited with having its nose in front on two-party preferred, assisted by a ReachTEL result that was better for them than the headline figure of 50-50 made it appear. That was based on respondent-allocated preferences, but on 2013 election preferences it comes out as 51.6-48.4. I don’t have any state data from the latest round of polls, so the state relativities are unchanged from last week’s result. The seat projection has the Coalition clearly back in majority government territory after making one gain apiece in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Note that primary vote and two-party charts are now featured below going back to the start of the year, with a further two-party chart continuing to show progress since the start of the term. Three polls have provided new leadership ratings, including the Morgan poll together with Newspoll and Ipsos. The trend results suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s downward plunge might at least be levelling off, but an improvement for Bill Shorten that can be traced back to the start of the year is, if anything, gaining momentum.

bludgertrack-2016-05-09b

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,094 comments on “It’s on: Newspoll, Ipsos, Galaxy”

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  1. Pegasus
    I think it’s fair for him to put a position out that Labor doesn’t want to suggest the possibility of doing a deal with the Greens. The Coalition will easily pick on that.

  2. Airlines – Leigh now giving Bandt’s sass a run for his money with respect to Turnbull’s rich parents comment: “Turnbull was born with a silver foot in his mouth.”

  3. Media Person: Mr Turnbull you have not mentioned that you will keep Medicare.
    Mal Turnbul: Jobs and growth.
    MP : You have not mentioned the environment.
    Mal Turnbul: Jobs and growth.
    MP: You have not mention Global warming.
    Mal Turnbul: Jobs and growth.
    MP Okay where are jobs and growth going to come from.
    Mal Turnbul: Lets talk about the environment.

  4. frednk @ #846 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 8:34 pm

    I am sure every one is happy the Liberals have a PLAN. Love to know what it is.

    I worked it out.

    The plan is to keep saying they have a plan ad nauseam.

    They have to do that because the plan has no substance and they don’t want to be asked what the plan is.

  5. There is nothing more certain that if Labor gets into bed with the Greens than that the Greens will destroy:
    (a) Labor’s ability to form government in its own right
    (b) the likelihood that the left will form government at all.

  6. O’Loudmouth:
    ‘we are doing what we can do and more’
    So, she says they are doing what they can’t do as well as what they can do.
    Sheesh

  7. What an excellent QandA the LNP exposed to the electorate as facts make a comeback.

    I don’t care if you are a Green or Labor supporter that was an excellent Qanda in changing the debate to what people want to talk about rather than what the LNP wants to talk about.

    The LNP is in big trouble with Housing affordability as central election issue.

  8. damon johnston
    2h2 hours ago
    damon johnston ‏@damonheraldsun
    Tomorrows @theheraldsun front page tonight … Libs set to cut deal with arch enemy Greens to oust Batman #auspol

  9. Andrew Leigh needs media training to know which camera to focus on. He looked shifty in TV land talking to the questioner rather than the camera

  10. The problem for the Libs is their policy is a bit incoherent. Makes it very hard in public debate. Hardest question for the ALP “will you work with GRN”? They have to pretend “no” to stop LNP painting them as radical.

  11. frednk,
    I suspect you know that the Libs have a plan
    The Libs are keeping their plan secret
    The Libs know their plan is deeply unpopular in voter land

  12. victoria

    The LNP are more upset by the deal than Labor. Former Greens person as staffer got the conservatives up in arms.

  13. geoffderrick: BREAKING: Libs massive backflip as @KellyODwyer says, “Let’s be honest.” #QandA #auspol

  14. Guytaur

    The liberals and Greens have made a deal to attempt to unseat Labor MPs.

    And your response is that the Liberals are upset?

    What about going with the Greens are happy to have the coalition re elected. Greens supporters who profess to be progressive, should be disgusted. But of course, turns out they are a bunch of hacks after all

  15. victoria

    I am not upset at the Greens doing deals to increase their chances of winning. You want to stop the backroom deals have OPV.

  16. guytaur @ #972 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 10:56 pm

    victoria
    The LNP are more upset by the deal than Labor. Former Greens person as staffer got the conservatives up in arms.

    Not even a staffer. A Deputy Secretary in the Department, which is a non-political job. These dicks are so used to thinking they own the public service they now regard it as just an extension of the PM’s office.

  17. Jones stopped O’Dwyer in her tracks when he asked her if the Liberals want house prices to rise. It was the only time I have ever seen that big mouth silenced – if only momentarily.

  18. victoria

    By the way thats the Greens getting serious about having influence in parliament. Win more seats your voice gets heard more. Its pure mathematics.

    Self interest rules. Follow Paul Keatings advice back that.

  19. The LNP plan is ballot box poison so they can’t reveal it before the election. But we know they want to:
    – Dismantle Medicare
    – Replace unemployment abd disability benefitd with very low-paid work
    – Privatise the delivery of health and education services, winding public provision back to a very basic, underfunded safety net
    – Sell off public assets to mates
    – transfer the tax burden away fro the wealthy and the corporates. Make up partbof the lost revenue by increasing the GST
    – Move Australia towards Third World wages and working conditions for the many, so there’s more for mates

  20. TPOF

    Yeah sorry. I heard it wrong. You are right its worse if its the public service. At least if it was a staffer you can see why there would be political fallout in the party

  21. Steve Ciobo is a complete idiot. So far the Coalition has deeply confused spokespeople repeating lie after lie.

  22. Victoria, found the article.

    I’m really, really hoping this isn’t true, because if it is… words fail me.

    YOUR enemy’s enemy should not always be your friend.

    In an extraordinary move, the Liberal party is on the cusp of inking a deal with their arch enemies the Greens to preference votes in three crucial Victorian seats.

    The architect of the preference allocation to the Greens in the seats of Batman, Wills and Melbourne is Victorian Liberal president Michael Kroger.

    Batman’s incumbent Labor member is David Feeney, a potential future Labor minister who has been extremely close to leader Bill Shorten and is a key Victorian Labor powerbroker.

    Wills, the former seat of Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke and outgoing stalwart Kelvin Thomson, is being contested by Labor’s Peter Khalil.

    Melbourne is currently held by the Greens Adam Bandt.

    Although the deal hasn’t been formally signed, sources familiar with negotiations say the Libs would direct preferences away from Labor to the Greens in those three seats.

    In return, the Greens would run an open ticket (not preferencing Labor ahead of the Libs) in marginal Liberal and Labor seats which could include Corangamite, Dunkley, Chisholm and Bruce.

    The ploy would force Labor to wage a rearguard action, spending considerable campaign capital, potentially millions of dollars, and focus on a messy three-way fight in the heartland seats.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/liberals-deal-with-greens-a-case-of-sleeping-with-the-enemy/news-story/35f990d4fb0ee2e0fe4b17bd0aa0bb5b

  23. I’ve yet to see open ticket HTVs by the Greens cost Labor an election, and I doubt it will ever happen. I also support open tickets on principle.

  24. airlines @ #985 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 11:11 pm

    I’ve yet to see open ticket HTVs by the Greens cost Labor an election, and I doubt it will ever happen. I also support open tickets on principle.

    What principle?
    The stale, worn out, mendacious Greens principle that the ALP is no better than the LNP?

  25. Didn’t Di Natale say today, hand on heart, at his Press Conference, that The Greens would NEVER preference the Liberals ahead of the Labor Party?

    And, guytaur, that’s the measure of a party, not whether they want to win seats or not, but that they will lie about the means to that end.

  26. If the Greens were to win several seats in the House, they will be a force to be reckoned with if they have the balance of power with other centrist and keft-leaning cross benchers, orvin their own right. Labor’s alternatives would be to:
    – Govern in its own right and hope/expect that they would normally have Green support
    – Come to an arrangement – a Coalition or an agreement for support for supply and confidence.

    Of course, should the Greens ever support the ‘Liberals’, the fate of the UK Liberals woukd await them.

  27. Nothing surprising in regards to Green-Liberal deal. Greens will do anything to increase electoral advantage even if it keeps Liberals in power.

  28. Airlines

    I also support open tickets on principle.

    So do I and have argued for such a position within my local Greens branch .

  29. bemused
    Monday, May 9, 2016 at 10:36 pm
    ..
    The plan is to keep saying they have a plan ad nauseam.

    I think you nailed it

  30. victoria

    Greens or Labor winning the same seats is the same amount in the parliament. None of these seats changing hands will affect who is the government. What makes a government is when a majority of seats is gained. Labor and the Greens can rule together if they cooperate. The truth is the voters are making the decisions in those seats not the Labor party as the demographics change.

    Labor could help the Greens and vice versa in wining LNP seats instead of Labor holding onto strongholds from the past. Either that or accept every election the Greens will go for whatever seat they can win and while deals are the system will use those deals to win seats.

    None of this it means a vote for Greens is a vote for the Liberals nonsense because the truth is the only evidence we have on a Federal level is that the Greens support Labor in government in a minority.

    Thats a reality that the LNP know and the reality of that maths makes the whole handwringing the sideshow that it is. Its election sideshow to maximise votes in a fight over inner city seats.

    So don’t try the high and mighty with me because I am not getting upset with faux outrage just because some well known names may lose seats. If they are looking after their voters deals or no deals will make no difference.

  31. bemused @ #986 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 11:13 pm

    airlines @ #985 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 11:11 pm

    I’ve yet to see open ticket HTVs by the Greens cost Labor an election, and I doubt it will ever happen. I also support open tickets on principle.

    What principle?
    The stale, worn out, mendacious Greens principle that the ALP is no better than the LNP?

    Principle that I don’t want any party dictating who to vote for, even if it’s something as informal and noncompulsory as HTV cards

  32. Guytaut

    You really do talk crap sometimes.

    I am calling it a night. Couldnt be bothered with anymore of it

  33. The stale, worn out, mendacious Greens principle that the ALP is no better than the LNP?
    That’s what the Democrats thought.

  34. c@tmomma @ #987 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 11:14 pm

    Didn’t Di Natale say today, hand on heart, at his Press Conference, that The Greens would NEVER preference the Liberals ahead of the Labor Party?
    And, guytaur, that’s the measure of a party, not whether they want to win seats or not, but that they will lie about the means to that end.

    It says nowhere in the Herald Sun article that the Liberals would be preferenced ahead of the ALP

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