As the campaign for a July 2 double dissolution election officially begins, three big polling guns have sounded:
• In The Australian, Newspoll records a 51-49 lead to Labor, unchanged on the last result three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 41% (steady), Labor 37% (up one) and Greens 11% (steady). Malcolm Turnbull is on 38% approval (up two) and 49% disapproval (steady), with Bill Shorten respectively on 33% (up two) and 52% (steady). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 49-27, little changed on the 47-28 result last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of about 1739. Hat tip: James J in comments.
• In the Fairfax papers, Ipsos goes the other way, with a 51-49 lead to the Coalition after a 50-50 result three weeks ago. The Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 44%, with Labor and the Greens steady on 33% and 14%. Despite that, there’s been a big improvement in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings, his approval up five to 38% and disapproval down six to 49%. Turnbull’s ratings, which have been markedly better from Ipsos than Newspoll, have him down three on approval to 48%, and up two on disapproval to 40%. The poll also found the budget to be deemed fair by 37% and unfair by 43%, which compares with 52% and 33% after last year’s budget, and 33% and 63% after the disaster the year before (when the series was conducted by Nielsen rather than Ipsos). Fifty-three per cent of respondents expected the Coalition would win the election, compared with 24% for Labor.
• News Corp’s Sunday tabloids also had a Galaxy poll overnight that had the result at 50-50, from primary votes of Coalition 42%, Labor 36% and Greens 11%. While the Newspoll and Galaxy result both come from the same firm and involved a combination of online and phone polling, the phone polling for the Galaxy result was, I believe, live interview rather than automated. The Galaxy also found low recognition of Scott Morrison as Treasurer (48%) and Chris Bowen as Shadow Treasurer (18%), and had a few attidinal questions whose wording Labor wouldn’t have minded: “Do you consider it fair or unfair that only workers earning more than $80,000 a year got a tax cut in the budget?”, recording 28% for fair and 62% for unfair, and “do you support or oppose Labor’s plan to leave the deficit levy in place so that workers earning over $180,000 a year pay more tax?”, which got 63% for support and 21% for oppose. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1270.
I’ll be running all that through the Bludgermator a little later to produce BludgerTrack projections, so watch this space.
UPDATE: BludgerTrack has had a feel of the four new opinion polls and found them to be, if not exactly budget bouncy, then tending to ameliorate what was probably an excessively favourable reading for Labor last week. The Coalition is now credited with having its nose in front on two-party preferred, assisted by a ReachTEL result that was better for them than the headline figure of 50-50 made it appear. That was based on respondent-allocated preferences, but on 2013 election preferences it comes out as 51.6-48.4. I don’t have any state data from the latest round of polls, so the state relativities are unchanged from last week’s result. The seat projection has the Coalition clearly back in majority government territory after making one gain apiece in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Note that primary vote and two-party charts are now featured below going back to the start of the year, with a further two-party chart continuing to show progress since the start of the term. Three polls have provided new leadership ratings, including the Morgan poll together with Newspoll and Ipsos. The trend results suggest Malcolm Turnbull’s downward plunge might at least be levelling off, but an improvement for Bill Shorten that can be traced back to the start of the year is, if anything, gaining momentum.
Sir Pyjama,
Couldn’t agree more with your assessment of Waleed Aly. There was mention about ego but to me it is more one of confidence of his subject matter.
Have the L-NP started a new drinking game called “jobs&Growth”?
Zinger Bandt!
Now if you want to meet real racism, try tonight’s Family Story. Lynnette Daley dies on a beach in Qld during an incident and no one gets prosecuted due to the Qld DPP.
Of course, Ms Daley was aboriginal and the men involved are two white no-hopers.
Keynes showed conclusively that the level of aggregate demand and therefore employment and output in an economy could be increased by increasing tax on the wealthy – by taxing their surplus income (savings). By definition, these savings are not cycled into consumption as long as they remain in private hands. If they are taxed and then spent by the State, demand and consumption will be greater than they otherwise would be even if the budget remained in balance both before and after the tax increase.
The basic point is the wealthy do not want to surrender any of their savings even if they can be used to increase employment, incomes and investment in the economy generally. What we see is Tory policies that increase taxes on workers, reduce taxes on the wealthy, increase public spending (though not on goods and services that would benefit workers) and increase deficits. The combined effect of these policies is to increase public indebtedness, increase the savings of the wealthy, increase public demand for goods and services provided by the wealthy and to provide an argument for a reduction in the services provided to workers.
The Tories find opportunities to advantage themselves each every which way.
I thought it was the NSW DPP Puff? A disgrace.
Dangerous question. ALP-GRN. Don’t tell PB.
soft option @ #695 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 6:17 pm
Only worthwhile comment on the topic all day!
Windsor is on Sydney’s semi rural outskirts, about 57km WNW of the Sydney CBD. It actually has the feel of a country town, surrounded as it is by open fields and farms. The main street looks like that of a country town, apart from the fact that it is now a pedestrian mall. If your definition of a place being in the country is that you see cows on the way to get there, then Windsor and nearby Richmond are ‘country’. But of course they are within (relatively) ready commuting distance of inner Sydney, more so to Blacktown and Parramatta. Also, they’re on the Sydney rail network. Definitel Sydney.
An interesting choice for a political event.
OK, I’ll stop doing my own Q&A Twitter feed.
Geez Andrew Leigh should be kept away from a camera. Talking about the Greens instead of how bad this Coalition Government is going to lose Labor the election.
That’s a question coming from a very frustrated man.
Politically frustrated I mean. He’s aware that the tax cuts only benefit those who don’t really need it.
jimmydoyle @ #911 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 9:55 pm
That’s because he was asked about a coalition with the Greens.
Sorry Question, not watching Qanda.
A drinking game involving the phrase “jobs and growth” would see me sent to the A&E tonight.
His simple question has KellyOwhatsername in knots.
Kelly O’dwyer as usual gives an answer that does not help the person asking the question at all.
TPOF – I get that, but couldn’t he just have said “we’re aiming to win in our right” and talked about something else, anything else? Like taking the fight to O’Dwyer said, and pointing out how the Liberals have increased debt, deficit, are only cutting taxes on the wealthy, and want to increase the GST?
Gobsmacked by O’Dwyer.
That should say “we’re aiming to win in our own right”
Adam Bandt visibly sighing at KO’D’s irrelevant answer at the low-income earner. “Growing the pie” doesn’t put food on his table.
Fess, sorry if I don’t make sense.
Fishmouth O’Dwyer totally embarrassing herself with her response to the poor bugger wondering why he people such as himself don’t get a cracker from this miserable govt. Lecturing him about a small business tax cut???
Innes Willox demonstrating the depravity of corporate Australia.
Just caught up with DeNatalis comments abou.t Shorten and the Beaconsfield ‘coal’ mine.
DeNatali is a slimy grub
Duncan the low income earner when told that he don’t pay much tax anyway:
“I’m taxed every time I go to the supermarket, every time I use my car”
Andrew Leigh needs to fire up a little against Bandt, am starting to lose a little faith in him.
Aaaand Innes Willox just shows what a callous mongrel he is.
Industry Dude: Sorry to be harsh but you don’t pay tax so piss off.
question @ #929 Monday, May 9, 2016 at 10:06 pm
Sounds almost exactly like he was saying that!
Sir Pajama Pudding Of Lake Disappointment,
Regarding Aly – nailed it… *pats Sir Pj on buttocks*
Come on. then he will be inspired by the words of the wise O’Dwyer, to with great agility inovate himself into a small business so he gets the tax cut. You know it makes sense.
Yet another reason to despise the treachery of the perfidious Greens.
In regards to Willox (who I earlier today incorrectly referred to as Wilcox), I quoted JK Galbraith today, and this section comes to mind:
You can like Andrew Leigh and Adam Bandt it’s not mutually exclusive
Geez O’Dwyer is useless – facts are now “snark”.
This Q&A is worth it just to watch Kelly wriggling.
Kelly: Don’t be snide Tony.
LOL at Kelly O’dwyer’s “winding it back” when they’ve increased the deficit.
Geez O’Dwyer is a bit useless – facts are now “snark”.
Apologies for the double post.
Leigh zinger! The L-Np Men in black, memory wipe.
question,
yes it could have been in NSW, not Qld. Geography was my only disliked subject at school.
Airlines – I’m enjoying Bandt’s sassiness and Leigh’s fact-based responses.
Without wanting to start a ‘race’ war –
Andrew Leigh is very smart and capable, but smug.
My local member. You don’t have to love them to vote for them.
Blast from the past – A tweet from The Finnigans made it on quanda
Cassandra Goldie from ACOSS is a waffle merchant
She needs to sharpen her message
Someone needs to make the point that the measure of a person’s contribution to society is not the tax they pay.
I know I’ve said this before, but the greater the inequality in income and wealth of private citizens, the greater the difference in tax paid.
Re the question about Labor + Greens question.
Bandt came across as reasonable in saying the Greens would negotiate with Labor to form government and made the aside the Coalition’s policies are reprehensible. In contrast Leigh responded wtte an alliance would not be a good idea.
Industry Dude deserts Kelly on neg gearing.
Willox suggesting getting rid of stamp duties and instead have a federal land tax