A ReachTEL poll conducted for Seven last night finds two-party preferred at 50-50, unchanged on the last such result three weeks ago. Primary votes are likewise little changed, with the Coalition up 0.9% to 41.4%, Labor down 0.7% to 35.1%, the Greens down 0.3% to 9.5% and the Nick Xenophon Team is up 0.4% to 4.2%. ReachTEL has slightly changed its methodology in that there is now an undecided option on the first question, with those selecting it then prompted as to who they are leaning towards, which more closely replicates the established practice of live interview phone pollsters. The results show 8.5% of respondents choosing the undecided, and then showing a lesser tendency of first responders to favour Labor, and a considerably stronger tendency to favour “others”.
The poll also finds an overall negative response to the budget, with 33.8% saying it has made them less likely to vote Coalition compared with 16.6% for more likely. On the question of personal impact, 7.1% said it would make them better off, 33.4% worse off and 59.4% the same. There is still a view that the government will be returned, with 49.1% saying they expect the Coalition to win, 28.1% opting for Labor and 22.8% choosing a hung parliament option that for many would have been a proxy for “don’t know”. On personal ratings, ReachTEL records the first improvement in Malcolm Turnbull’s position this year, his combined very good and good rating being up from 25.5% to 28.1%, while poor is down from 36.6% to 34.5%. Bill Shorten is respectively up from 23.3% to 24.6%, and up from 42.2% to 44.0%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down very slightly, from 58.4-41.6 to 57.7-42.3.
There are also personal ratings today from Roy Morgan, which has published one of its occasional phone polls on the subject, in this case a survey of 584 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. The results were published through separate releases focusing on Turnbull and Shorten and preferred Labor and Liberal leader. Along with the revelation that voting intention among the sample broke 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, the poll found the following:
• Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister is 57-24, well down on the 76-14 lead he recorded at the last such poll in mid-October. The net change of 29% compares with a 22.8% shift in the BludgerTrack trend measure between that time and April 15, which was the last time new leadership data became available.
• Turnbull’s approval rating is down 23% to 43%, with his disapproval up 25% to 41%. The net change of 48% compares with 42.1% in the equivalent reading from BludgerTrack.
• Shorten is up nine on approval to 34% and down 13% on disapproval to 49% – a 22% net shift to compare with just 6.9% from BludgerTrack.
• Malcolm Turnbull’s rating as preferred Liberal leader has slumped from 64% to 41%, while Julie Bishop’s has doubled to 24%. Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and Scott Morrison continue milling around in single digits.
• Despite his improved standing, Bill Shorten is in third place as preferred Labor, which is at least one better than he managed last time. Tanya Plibersek is down five to 22%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 20%, Bill Shorten is up five to 14%, Wayne Swan is down two to 8% and, in a rejoinder to the beard skeptics, Chris Bowen is up three to 8%.
Question,
I can relate to that. I definitely agree with a lot of Green policies, as written, but the Greens as a party have lost my faith in terms of being able to do practical politics. I don’t like the behaviour of certain Labor people basically making shit up and misrepresenting things that the Greens say and do. But I do wonder sometimes about the Greens’ strategy of not telling it like it is (ie, Labor has vastly better policies when it comes to most Green issues).
Did someone say newspoll?
GhostWhoVotes: #Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Turnbull 51 (-3) Shorten 29 (+2) #ausvotes
VoteCompass Green 89 Lab 71 LNP 37 Slightly more Progressive, but slightly less Left than the Green dot. As already stated, no way voting Green. I want things to actually happen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMXKVJIsWjs
Ipsos’ personal ratings are still very pro-Turnbull.
VoteCompass Greens 100%
Being Malcolm i think we can assume a dead cat bounce.
Yes guytaur, Kenny did suggest no budget bounce, through gritted teeth of course.
BW
LOL you sh*t stirrer.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 3h3 hours ago
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (+1) ALP 49 (-1) #ausvotes
Is this really from today?
D-money
That repetitive bloody Korean Pop music is driving them mad.
BK & D-money re “Dr visits”:
This looks like the rates of visits for primary attendance – without hospital/ED attendance. Korea, Japan and the old Soviet satellites use subsidised private clinics rather than GPs or ED attendance in the way we do. The UK & French figures – and most of the Scandinavian figures reflect a more established primary health care/preventive care arrangements, using non-hospital outpatient services than us. Ironically the US figures reflect the median of the appalling diversity and lack of coordination of primary care in that benighted country.
My sister reports two of her friends changing from being Abbott voters, to Turnbull fans, to now saying they will vote for Shorten, as Turnbull has been so disappointing to them.
Reason being given is that Turnbull can’t run a country on being personally popular if his party isn’t behind him.
Gangnamitis?
😆
BevanShields: Noni Hazlehurst has a crack at Malcolm Turnbull for his ‘we can’t be misty eyed’ comment about asylum seekers #TVWEEKLogies #auspol
Ipsos has a very strong L/NP bias so 51-49 might be right for them.
Rhwombat;
Thanks, I knew there must be a few confounders in there somewhere.
The USA will no doubt also be skewed by the ‘direct to specialist’ numbers, as would some European countries, while ours will be skewed by ‘direct to A&E’
Nor can the LNP govern with a policy agenda set to circa 2005. Times have changed, issues have gained far greater clarity ( AGW, boats, the economy, the wealth divide), and simply running a Howard redux is no longer viable or even that credible in 2016.
Cud, I try to stay well clear of lefty wars. I have often marvelled in the past how the right can march in lockstep, and turn their opinion on a pin, such as their about faces on carbon pricing (Howard I, Howard II, Turnbull I, Abbott, Turnbull II).
I have found the Turnbull experiment and Trump most refreshing, watching the RW marching bands turn into drunken out of tune singalongs.
MariamVeiszadeh: “No child is born a bigot”
Noni Hazelhurst
#TVWEEKLogies
smh: View from the Street: Prime Minister ruins Mothers Day. https://t.co/wn5tVauRVS | @AndrewPStreet
Australia open for business” was the slogan…business has abandoned investing in Australia…
The Liberals raved about how they would build investment in non-mining industries….they got that wrong as is evidenced by the falling investment.
Really brings into question their mantra of “Jobs and Growth”, hasn’t worked for the last 2.5 years
“No child is born a bigot”
…but having tory parents kicks it all along…..
TomCBallard: A channel that redefines reality? That’s SkyNews. #Logies
VoteCompass is the most ridiculous thing I’ve seen.
“Should companies pay more tax?”
More than what? 30%? 0%? What they currently pay?
ABC election coverage was a mistake. It’s nothing but trash.
BREAKIN NEWS Waleed Aly wins best presenter. Yay.
From the sounds of it a political party should have Noni Hazlehurst as a candidate.
Shorten and Combet came into Parliament on the back of leading the
“Your Rights At Work” campaign that saw the end of John Howard.
Turnbull successfully campaigned for the seat of Wentworth, not sure he has the same influence over all of Australia or deep enough pockets
guytaur:
Those Ipsos PPM figures don’t seem right. That’s what they were last time I believe.
Very simplistic to base a program such as Vote Compass on stated Policy instead of supported policy. The Coalition, on paper, supports education, health and low wage earners. The Greens support action on climate control etc. But what actions have they taken to support or defeat these policies? And to allow the MSM to nominate what they think is important is as weak as.
Tom.
The ABC coverage I saw this afternoon had Simon Banks, who I had never seen before. He debated the ALP POV very fluently. He practically had Uhlmann nodding in agreement. Greg Jennet had a worried look like “we are going to be accused of ALP bias if we can’t figure out how to take a point off this guy”. They tried… I hope he will be an election regular.
A B
No date but that was GWV last tweet 27 minutes ago.
I doubt Ghost would tweet Ipsos many hours before being made public. Ghost is often hours behind these days.
I don’t know about Kevin, but I reckon the ladies will be the difference for Labor. You can tell Labor are targeting the y chromosome deficient (not that there’s anything wrong with that) pretty hard and you’d bet that they’d have polling to support the strategy.
Tax cuts for millionaires and business isn’t the sort of stuff to swing women to you, and with Malcolm’s appeal deflating the Libs are leaving the ground vacant for Labor to occupy. And occupy it they will if the last week is any indication. More work toward equality, health and education, maternity payments, etc are the things that will resonate with female voters much more than mindless repetition of the ‘jobs and growth’ slogan.
Before we all have hysterics about every poll that comes out, can we please understand that a 1 % movement in TPP between consecutive polls from any pollster is absolutely meaningless, ie ABSOLUTELY MEANINGLESS. It signifies nothing at all! If the poll samples are new each time, absolute steadiness cannot be possibly expected. Leaving aside that fact, we also have no clear idea as to what the polls are measuring at all. The straight out question asked poses a fantasy situation, that of an election ‘today’, and records the response. Many in my extended family at our monster Mum’s Day lunch had no idea that an election was about to be called, and many would still not know that, since I was forbidden to talk about it.
Remarkable consistency, as in Essential, is actually a reason to suspect their sampling procedures. The whole point of PollBludger is to identify trends as revealed by aggregation, to minimise the impact of the occasional (completely normal, to be expected every now and then) outlier, and to derive a weighted ‘mean’ after William’s tweaks, which we hope has some predictive power. I repeat, to sweat on a single number, or pair of numbers, is just silly.
Question
Banks is a regular on the Drum panel.
Thanks guytuar, I will make an effot to keep up 🙂
Agree Yabba, 51-49 from Ipsos means 50-50 anyway 🙂
Waiting for Newspoll.
Boring, moronic Vote Compass bashing from commentators here, undoubtedly upset it reveals that the Greens have a policy platform closer to their own stance than Labor’s.
Two things, Tom et al: first, the entire thing is designed and run by political scientists, not the ABC or any other part of the MSM. And second, you can weight policy areas according to how important you consider them.
Step up your game.
Essential as a reliable poll barometer dismissed by Paul Murray on Sky as being “in part funded by the union movement.”
Sorry Guytaur, I blame the tablet.
If Paul Murray’s logic we can dismiss Newspoll and IPSOS because they are commissioned by big business.
question
A typo I can understand. No worries.
Guytar:
My mistake – I just had a look at the last Ipsos and it was 54-27.
Talking of polls, i have always found the question “Would you be more or less likely to vote for the LNP if Gengis Pinochet was the leader?” so ludicrous as i would NEVER vote LNP. The question implies that every voter is a potential LNP associate.
correct weight Yabba.
If Newspoll is still 51 to the good (or more) and Ipsos has moved 50-51 to the forces of darkness the most likely reality is that nothing much has happened, but the slow erosion of support for Turnbull and the Government that has been going all year is at best paused. Any small movement can just as easily be rounding error. That’s why we watch the trend. The trend ain’t Malcolm’s friend and nothing he’s done this week would lead you to believe the trend will reverse any time soon.
This is 4 hours ago and is yet to be verified. Weird.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 4h4 hours ago
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 51 (+1) ALP 49 (-1) #ausvotes
I couldn’t find a link to IPSOS result. AFR has articles on IPSOS but from what I can see it is an old one from April. I don’t know where 49-51 came from.
Ghost is correct about Ipsos being 51-49 to the govt, its mentioned in an (pretty mediocre in my view) editorial which is already up – though Ghost tweeted that before this went up, but only tweeted the PPM figure after this went up, so maybe got a tip about the TPP.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/election-2016-in-search-of-better-government-from-either-side-20160508-gop25x.html
AB 1544 – last Ipsos was 50/50