A ReachTEL poll conducted for Seven last night finds two-party preferred at 50-50, unchanged on the last such result three weeks ago. Primary votes are likewise little changed, with the Coalition up 0.9% to 41.4%, Labor down 0.7% to 35.1%, the Greens down 0.3% to 9.5% and the Nick Xenophon Team is up 0.4% to 4.2%. ReachTEL has slightly changed its methodology in that there is now an undecided option on the first question, with those selecting it then prompted as to who they are leaning towards, which more closely replicates the established practice of live interview phone pollsters. The results show 8.5% of respondents choosing the undecided, and then showing a lesser tendency of first responders to favour Labor, and a considerably stronger tendency to favour “others”.
The poll also finds an overall negative response to the budget, with 33.8% saying it has made them less likely to vote Coalition compared with 16.6% for more likely. On the question of personal impact, 7.1% said it would make them better off, 33.4% worse off and 59.4% the same. There is still a view that the government will be returned, with 49.1% saying they expect the Coalition to win, 28.1% opting for Labor and 22.8% choosing a hung parliament option that for many would have been a proxy for “don’t know”. On personal ratings, ReachTEL records the first improvement in Malcolm Turnbull’s position this year, his combined very good and good rating being up from 25.5% to 28.1%, while poor is down from 36.6% to 34.5%. Bill Shorten is respectively up from 23.3% to 24.6%, and up from 42.2% to 44.0%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is down very slightly, from 58.4-41.6 to 57.7-42.3.
There are also personal ratings today from Roy Morgan, which has published one of its occasional phone polls on the subject, in this case a survey of 584 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. The results were published through separate releases focusing on Turnbull and Shorten and preferred Labor and Liberal leader. Along with the revelation that voting intention among the sample broke 51-49 in favour of the Coalition, the poll found the following:
• Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister is 57-24, well down on the 76-14 lead he recorded at the last such poll in mid-October. The net change of 29% compares with a 22.8% shift in the BludgerTrack trend measure between that time and April 15, which was the last time new leadership data became available.
• Turnbull’s approval rating is down 23% to 43%, with his disapproval up 25% to 41%. The net change of 48% compares with 42.1% in the equivalent reading from BludgerTrack.
• Shorten is up nine on approval to 34% and down 13% on disapproval to 49% – a 22% net shift to compare with just 6.9% from BludgerTrack.
• Malcolm Turnbull’s rating as preferred Liberal leader has slumped from 64% to 41%, while Julie Bishop’s has doubled to 24%. Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and Scott Morrison continue milling around in single digits.
• Despite his improved standing, Bill Shorten is in third place as preferred Labor, which is at least one better than he managed last time. Tanya Plibersek is down five to 22%, Anthony Albanese is down three to 20%, Bill Shorten is up five to 14%, Wayne Swan is down two to 8% and, in a rejoinder to the beard skeptics, Chris Bowen is up three to 8%.
I’ll start.
I’m wonder when on Thursday night the poll was taken. Before or after Shorten’s speech? And beyond that, the multitude who did not see/hear Shorten’s speech … would it not have been better to poll tonight?
ReachTEL result now available on their website.
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-5may2016
The pre-election polls are pretty much the status quo come election time. However a long campaign does add a wildcard.
Yeah Jen,
I think the government would have got the better of the timing, and there is also usually a lag in these things. Over time I think more will move from “the same” to the “worse off” column.
Funny that so many have been saying the budget will be the launching pad for the L-NP campaign and tonight Riley said WTTE “the government will be glad to get the budget out of the way without any damage”.
No (bounce) news is good news!
If the government were always worried about the budget, as Riley suggested, then why not set up the DD much earlier? Or was there some difficulty with that beyond crappy management from the L-NP?
On those ratings if I was shorty I’d be taking Tanya out with me as much as possible!
Was this posted here?
Tim Nichols replaces Springborg as Queensland LNP leader.
Sorry to keep banging on about Riley’s “post piece” commentary to the Anchor, but this is the week the government laid some actual cards out, and the first half of the week got all those “black hole” stories going. Their strategies are failing…
And to be fair to Oakes, on budget night I saw a “budget wrap” late in the evening where he did try to clean his hands of the “big black hole” story and went to great pains to explain the way the PBO works, and that they came up with similar numbers very recently for that Libertarian senator (forgotten his name).
Turnbull each day comes across more and more as a smooth tongued real estate agent.
Ten news highlighted his political lie on the treasury costings over the cost of tax cuts to people like the Macquarie millionaires.
But but Malcolm squirmed, I said, but hum ah, the costings were only in the forward estimates not in the ten years, or was it the other way around?
All I know is that Malcolm said that there were no costings and there were.
Coogee flat with ocean views, where’s the ocean views?
Well if you look at that window over there you can see the waves brake on the rocks. hmm maybe stand on a chair,ah look maybe the tides going out, you can see it better at high tide.
Perth Flat with views over Kings Park.
Wheres the views over Kings Park?
Well, look, now look, you see those tree branches waving in the wind over there, there, you see them, no there, yes, well um those trees are in Kings Park.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/lnp-leadership-spill-new-opposition-leader-tim-nicholls-says-labor-is-frozen-20160506-goo8f5.html
Bluey is getting famous, got a mention on FDOM. Better not tell him in case his head gets too big for his rockpool.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/06/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-australian-election-brought-to-you-by-snitty-the-cassowary
It was bound to happen. The Borg is just hopeless.
To be fair to Riley (although I don’t want to be) he did have the Turnbull quote about how treasury had only costed 4 years of the tax cuts, and then cut to some treasury guy saying it was $48bill over 10 years.
[If the government were always worried about the budget, as Riley suggested, then why not set up the DD much earlier? Or was there some difficulty with that beyond crappy management from the L-NP?]
Had to be July 2 for a DD due to half senate and timing and stuff that William and Antony Green explained.
I’ve been impressed with the SMH reportage on how the budget benefits Liberal electorates, esp in Sydney. First we had which electorates make best use of negative gearing (all Liberal), now we’ve seen reports of how MT’s own electorate benefits most from the govt’s budget in terms of tax cuts.
A pretty powerful backdrop when overlaid with Labor’s countering of the class warfare claims by the govt.
Richard Willingham
13m13 minutes ago
Richard Willingham @rwillingham
Kevin Andrews staffer has resigned over branch stacking furore #springst #auspol
[a rejoineder to the beard skeptics]
Firstly, who could possibly be skeptical of beards? Surely no such beast exists unless they live off with the tooth fairy in smooth face nancy boy land.
Secondly, rejoineder? rejoineder; a reply, especially a sharp or witty one.
WB – Wordsmithy Bowe.
[To be fair to Riley (although I don’t want to be) he did have the Turnbull quote about how treasury had only costed 4 years of the tax cuts, and then cut to some treasury guy saying it was $48bill over 10 years.]
Turnbull and LNO caught out twice, treasury and PBO costing.
Was fine for abbott and hockey to use their suburban accountants costings in 2103 when non-one really cared about such, the electorate just wanted wanted labor out.
Different this time.
Boris, Yeah I remember a discussion about that, but surely the L-NP would rather bank a win and worry about future senate elections later?
[A pretty powerful backdrop when overlaid with Labor’s countering of the class warfare claims by the govt.]
It is class warfare though confessions, why deny it.
The LNP want to give tax cuts to millionaires and multi billion dollar companies including the banks. Tax cuts funded by cuts to education, health, welfare , the environment.
Labor want to maintain tax rates on the millionaires, and multi-billionaire companies, reform tax laws to stop rorts on negative gearing and super to better fund education, health, welfare and the environment.
Boris, re 2013, “don’t you worry about that, we have L-NP DNA, and we’re grown-ups, and we have a glossy pamphlet. That’s why we can cut taxes, and keep spending on everything, and get the budget in surplus.”
I wonder how many would have thought Labor 50:50 or so going into the promised election when they were “trounced” three years ago? According to the friends of the LNP who used to come here, the LNP were set for at least 1,2 3 terms in government was it? with Labor not even able to get a sniff until the “new generation” came around in 2019 at the earliest. Funny thing politics….while Labor still has an uphill battle, to be this well placed at this point is not where most would have expected them to be. All due credit to Bill Shorten and the nous of Labor to stick at it.
little mention of Turnbulls cuts to pensions and unemployment benefits.
premium whisky drinkers get a tax cut on their whisky.
Tho 7/11 workers will get a rise in pay from $3.50 an hour to $4 and hour under the LNP internships. thats a 14% wage increase which probs has the IPA fuming.
Boris:
Shorten certainly didn’t deny it in his speech last night. He straight up said what the govt was doing with the budget outright represented class warfare. And he’s right. And furthermore, this class warfare crap, carped about whenever we talk about reining in non means-tested taxpayer-funded subsidies has got to stop.
[but surely the L-NP would rather bank a win ]
They needed senate control to pass their legislation on increased uni fees, increased health fees, the ABCC and other cuts to health, welfare and education.
Banking a win in the house is no good if face the same senate.
Tricot:
I commented last night that Labor have done so well not to fall into that funk first term oppositions typically fall into, and esp after the rancorous RGR years to unite behind Shorten.
Even better, the party has clearly been hard at work developing a policy agenda to take to the election. And it shows.
Good on him fess
I didn’t see the speech, heard bits and pieces on the news, but take them head on.
We need more polls to get a good feel on where we are post budget. Although budget related questions are not good for the government. Budget was supposed to be the game changer but I don’t see that happening. It will just come down to campaigning.
ABC News Brisbane
18m18 minutes ago
ABC News Brisbane @ABCNewsBrisbane
Federal MP Stewart Robert defends giving LNP funds to staffers to run for council http://ab.co/24BdXov pic.twitter.com/TBqC82FJB8
Can anyone tell or guess the margin of error on Morgan’s 49-51 to Coalition ? Sample size seems so tiny.
Yep. In a nutshell
Wayne Swan
10h10 hours ago
Wayne Swan @SwannyQLD
BCA opposed Labor’s 10 yr funded NDIS/Gonski plan but support 10 yr $50Bn splurge on themselves. Self-interest not national interest #auspol
On that note, bluey hasn’t posted yet?
Someone commented yesterday that the scores could be revised, in particlar the coalition downwards. An example is the tobacco tax black hole, that appeared to help the coalition earlier in the week, but has since become a liability, so the coalition should have points deducted, however I believe bluey’sscore is trying to capture the disengaged apart from the ‘bubble’ here.
So people may well have seen Oakes on TV earlier this week but not aware of anything further on that issue.
The score as it stands is pretty self evident.
The Libs want to parachute Inspector Grim into safe seat as soon as possible
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HNxiJize44
God what is it with these Libs that they have such a high entitlement factor when it comes to using taxpayer funds, yet declare themselves publicly to be in favour of purse-tightening and small govt! Hypocrites!!
Bill Shorten’s on The Project ch10 4 those interested…
vic:
Somewhat chuffed Labor have picked up on my self interest vs national interest theme. 😀
About 4%.
Turnbulls strategy has howards fingerprints all over it.
A steady as she goes budget to focus on the steady hand on the tiller meme.
Adopt labor policies that resonate with the people.
Security scare campaign over terry wrists and how labor is soft.
question labors costings using treasury
last minute surprise announcements like Singapore troops
next will come
Bill doesn’t have the ticker for the job
Bill is a thug, a union thug
they’ve already done money/savings scares with crashing house prices, but will restate it, with labors policies going to make the banks more insecure, runs on banks.
labor don’t deserve to be back in after just one term, they need another term in opposition ( tho that was kerry)
Boris
Funnily enough Truffles’ first foray into making money was some property investments/speculation in Sydney. So perhaps his roots are showing. I think his dad was a pub broker so it would be in the “blood” .
Hah, I knew there would be a ReachTEL. Channel 7 can’t resist getting in first.
Can anyone tell me why when I go to read Crikey articles I get the first few paras then the rest is just a big red subscription box?
My account details say my subscription is active & I can sign in.
Bluey Bulletin 46 Day 46 of 103
WARNING! Bluey reckons be aware of cheap imitations especially from First Dog of the Moon. Bluey reckons Cassowaries are Casque Heads.
LIE EARLY, LIE BIG AND LIE OFTEN
Bluey reckons that Bowen in QT Wednesday gave Turnbull plenty of warning what was coming. Turnbull ignored. The result is that any momentum that the Coalition might have got with the Budget stalled completely. It fed nicely into Shorten’s Budget-in-Reply.
Having misjudged the issue in the first place Turnbull then hung tough for a day of huge damage before conceding the point.
The damage is real and it was totally self-inflicted. It repeats the Turnbull pattern: fly a kite and cut the string when it gets too windy. And lie, lie, lie.
STRUCTURAL POLITICAL DEFICIT
Bluey reckons that the extreme libertarian and small government crowd are running themselves into a political dead end. Their ideal outcome is no government at all. Their less than perfect outcome is a government that does as little as needs must and then to leave society and the economy to the spivs. Assuming that they get their way the structural outcome is an economy dominated by a very small percentage of society. And this very small percentage also has a very small percentage of votes… if the majority of punters ever wake up to theirselves.
WITH FRIENDS LIKE THIS
Tricky Turnbull, the self-styled friend of the ABC, and sometimes dinner fan boi of Sales, chops ABC funding. Bluey reckons that if you sup with the devil. Kami Kaze Sales responds by trying to chop Shorten.
OUT OF THE MOUTHS OF BABES AND SUCKLINGS
Bluey notes that not a single MSM journalist has been able to state that yesterday morning the Prime Minister of Australia lied through his teeth. Instead the smarmies are turning it into politics-as-usual.
SNICKING THE GOOGLIES TO FINE LEG
Bluey notes that The Australian published a transcript of the Sales interview. Sales tried hard to pay for her dindins with Tricky Turnbull. Bluey noted with satisfaction the way in which Shorten patiently waited for Sales to finish their pre-packaged raves and their interruptions, and their breathless interruptions of their interruptions, and then casually and politely fine cut the ball down to the boundary at deep fine leg merely by applying substance. It may not have been pretty but this guy has done really tough negotiations with really tough people. Sales, Kelly and the like are kiddie stuff by comparison. And it showed.
MORRISON ‘LOSES’ THEN ‘FINDS’ $50 BILLION
Whoops!
SMEARS INNOCENT PEOPLE
Bluey notes that Morrison and Dutton have a nasty habit of nastily smearing totally innocent people. When the smears fail to meet the test of the Law, the Department is left to pick up the pieces. Thus it was with the sacked Save the Children people. Bluey reckons that there are no depths to the depravity of Dutton and Morrison. At all.
RBA RAINS ON TURNBULL’S PARADE
In yet another sign that Turnbull and Morrison are in Budget Cloud Cuckoo Land, the RBA has slashed inflation forecasts. The iron ore spot price has dropped over 9% in three days. Some think that this is a train wreck that will crash before election day. Bluey reckons that these train wrecks in the real world would impact both Parties equally but that if people are feeling anxious they may be more likely to stick with Turnbull.
POLLING
Bluey does not know why Morgan decided to do a totally inadequate 2PP sample of less than 600. The netsats are more or less what we would expect: not fully satisfying for either Turnbull nor Shorten. Reachtel goes for 50/50.
Bluey reckons that this means that the Government has a winning lead at the start of the official election campaign.
SINKERS AND CANE TOADS
The advantages of incumbency. A plus for Turnbull.
LEADER STABBED IN BACK
The Queensland Liberals are at it again. Bluey reckons they can’t help themselves.
Verdict for the day: evens
Cumulative score: Labor 29 Liberal 17
[It will just come down to campaigning.]
Yep, tax cuts so Macquaire can increase its mega profits so it can afford to pay higher bonuses to its millionaire staff to increase profits more.
or
maintain taxes to fund natina l interest stuff such as education, health welfare.
[So perhaps his roots are showing. ]
Cant hide that stuff poroti, always comes through
mikeh:
I access my articles through the email. Does that work for you?
one thing that needs to be said is this poll was taken before bill gave his budget reply.
I was reachtel polled last night at approx. 1835 hrs.
like most polls it will take time to wash through.
Boerwar … can you ask bluey if he listened to Shorten with Jones?
Shorten needs extra points if not, because Jones was respectful … a rarity.
confessions @ #35 Friday, May 6, 2016 at 7:04 pm
Since when has LNP funds been taxpayer funds?
This is an internal LNP issue.
Test