Leroy Lynch offers a reminder of a long lost Possum Comitatus post from budget time 2007, designed to address suggestions from certain elements of the media at that time that Peter Costello’s last budget (as it transpired) would finally kick off that long-awaited “narrowing” in Labor’s poll lead under Kevin Rudd. No evidence was found of consistent behaviour in polling at around budget time, but it strikes me that this matter is better considered on a case-by-case basis. So here’s a chart I’ve done showing how governments’ two-party poll ratings changed between a period from one month before each budget to one and two months after, based on trend measures of polling from the time (just Newspoll up the 2010 election, but BludgerTrack results thereafter). Many if not most of the big changes probably had little if anything to do with the budget (the Kevin Rudd leadership coup bounce in 2013, the carbon tax backlash in 2011, the unwinding of Kevin Rudd’s post-election honeymoon in 2008), but others (1993 and 2014 especially) very clearly did. Labor budgets are indicated in pink, Coalition ones in blue.
UPDATE: It occurs to me it might be a little more interesting if presented like this:
Adrian
Do not mistake what YOU care about with what the average voter cares about.
There is not a lot to make the average voter angry and certainly not swing voters.
Every statement of “maintain funding” seems to contain a cut.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/may/03/the-winners-and-losers-from-scott-morrisons-2016-budget
‘Burke handled Alberici stupidity reasonably well on Lateline’
You can bet your bottom dollar that Cormann got a far more benign version of Alberici’s stupidity.
It’s really past time that the ABC dispensed with the services of most of their mediocre, partisan and overpaid current affairs ‘stars’.
Kohler’s article today is ‘disappointing’ — by he is now a “Editor at Large at the GG -”
………………………………………………………………………………………………..
A better run down comes from a comment to Kohlers articele —
DTT
I’m angry, and I’ve just eaten a raw onion sandwich. It’s that sort of day. Just let any Coalition voter come near me now and they’ll get a blast!!
Ouch!
We shall see DTT. I do not pretend to know what the so called average voter, or ‘swing’ voter cares about, but I would have thought education, health and the environment came higher up the list than tax cuts for the wealthy and businesses.
simon katich @ #146 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 10:58 am
SK,
Reince Priebus just Tweeted that Trump is now the Presumptive Nominee and so everyone has to get behind him so that they can defeat Hillary. So…?
Kasich……
Sen. @TedCruz should be proud of his strong and disciplined campaign. Texas is lucky to have you. Best wishes going forward. -John
Ahhhhh, nice.
Just remember SA pollbludgers, if Kasich gets the nomination drinks are on me at the Wheaty!
High Court transcript of 2nd day of hearing of Day’s application
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/HCATrans/2016/98.html
One way traffic with most judges trying to ascertain what Peter King is trying to say, No such difficulty experienced with counsel for the Commonwealth.
The States and Territories did not even appear which may seem odd given the reform applies to the State house but may reflect their views as to the cluelessness of the Day camp.
Adrian,
The ‘Average Voters’ I have spoken to, and not just my friends who I consider to be ‘Average Voters’ like I think dtt is alluding to, have about 3 hot button issues front of mind:
*Penalty Rates
* Housing Affordability
* Good quality Public Education and Public Health.
C@t – Reince Priebus
I am trying, but I can not take that name seriously.
Lizzie
Trouble is, there are not too many of us here on PB that are “swinging” voters.
The company tax just might make voters angry, but I am not sure. Removal of the deficit levy is possibly one to make people angry. The tax cut for $80,000+, is pretty small so may irritate but not enrage ordinary voters – also think swing seats, where I guess quite a lot fall into that $80-$87,000 bracket.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/04/the-budget-is-full-of-old-ideas-but-at-least-we-get-new-slogan
imacca
I knew a guy who worked on the software dev for the Collins. Not impartial, but he assured me the Collins (if they could keep them in the water for long enough) were formidable. Another friend years latter also defended its capabilities. An upgrade and add a few more seems a realistic option to this little hack.
Cat
I think maybe you mix with a self selecting group. Penalty rates affects only a smallish %
Housing affordability is a big issue, but I am not sure the voters will mark the budget down on this one – it is very meh!! it will be up to Chris Bowen to try to make the labor negative gearing policy seem exciting an innovative.
Health is a HUGE sleeper and I think it is probably Labor’s very best chance to really knock the stufficng out of the budget
School funding is I think a bit of a meh issue too.
dtt
Thank goodness Labor dont have advisors that think like you. Otherwise they would be taking their bat and ball and calling game over. Sheesh
“dividend imputation system” – you see there’s something I know little about and I bet the vast majority of people haven’t even heard of it.
Let me have a go – is it something to do with moving the tax payable by a company onto the shareholder so effectively they pay no tax?
DTT – If the libs were decapitating people you’d say that at least they’re getting a hair-cut.
Mikehilliard, it’s the other way around. The company pays the tax so the shareholder doesn’t have to (up to the 30% company rate).
SK@#264:
One of the unstated problems with the Collins class is the lack of sufficient submariners to crew them – which is not a problem with the current arrangement of only putting one boat to sea at a time. Perhaps some of Turnbott’s new $4.00/hr interns could be drafted – neo-galley-slaves of jobs and growth.
SK
The Collins Class subs are certainly regarded as a formidable unit. Also they do much, much more than just practise firing torpedos.
The major improvement to the sustainment program are now proven and the number of subs in the water at any one time is being maintained at world class levels with regard to the size of the fleet.
Rhwombat
Yes, the constraint has now been shifted.
Triton
Thanks, I thought it was one way or the other.
How good is this one from Mark David!!
BK @271:
That’s interesting. How many boats can they crew now?
Victoria
What a silly thing to say. I react to the real circumstances as I see them.
This election IS winnable for Shorten, but too many on here seem to think it is all in the bag.
Too many also carry on about peripheral issues that may be their personal bees in bonnet but not really for the electorate.
The budget was bland and there were not too many nasties. That much is obvious. The issues (as it realtes to polling and elections) is whether bland, no boats rocking is the right electoral strategy for Turnbull. My guess is that it is but it may not work either.
Has it occurred to you that it was the sort of bootlicking, devotional rubbish that is prevalent here on PB, that actually got Julia Gillard into such a mess. When you are trying to run an election campaing, your closest freinds are NOT always the best advisors. Sure they are important, but you need other opinions.
Especially in trying to find out just what is making the electorate tick. Labor has a very strong industrial base, so issues like penalty rates, education funding and hospital funding ring lots of bells, but the issue is whether these same bells ring in the general electorate. Perhaps even MORE importaly do these bells ring in the 50 or so marginal seats. My gut feeling is that penalty rates are issues for those who are already going to vote Labor (or if younger students) Green. Not a vote changer. By contrast every issue that affects job security and emplyent is a vote changer, be it 457 visas, factory closures or the FTA.
a nice little ditty from the pulse and some words of wisdom.
There’s got to be a morning after
If we can hold on through the night
We have a chance to find the sunshine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KClpLzFftU
The Pulse @ 9.30
By jove, that Scott’s a bounder,
I can’t believe that he
would try to flog his budget
by cracking down on me!
He’s plundering my super,
that lovely little rort
which helps to fill the cellar
with lots of Vintage Port.
I’ll have to sack the butler,
and let that new maid go,
and sell the wife’s old Roller
to rustle up some dough.
But hang on, my accountant
should have a trick or two,
and then the old-boy network
will know just what to do.
They say the Cayman Islands
can spread taxation cheer,
and then I’ll buy more houses
to negatively gear!
Commenter
Gazza from Grong Grong
Date and time
May 04, 2016, 10:27AM
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/federal-budget/budget-2016-live-from-parliament-house-20160503-gollpv.html#ixzz47e8v8zjA
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
K17
Once again you are attacking me without good reason.
ALL I have said is that the budget is pretty meh!!. That is to say it will not make too many angry either way.
However I do think the medicare co-payment by stealth is a huge sleeper issue that Labor can make ground on. The only thing is that its effects will not be felt until after the election.
dtt
Not a silly thing to say at all. For eg Labor were pounded for the debt and deficit disaster. Where is the angst now? Meh you say.
I remember when you were giving Abbott a big tick on the marriage equality stuff. We all know how that turned out
Yes the shareholder gets a credit for their share of the tax already paid by the company then they pay their normal marginal rates on the dividend income. The reasoning behind it was to avoid “double taxation” on dividends. I mentioned it because most people probably don’t pay much attention to franking credits if they have small or no dividends. The other point is that non-resident shareholders don’t receive any dividend imputation credits so the company tax paid is “final”. Of course they want a company tax cut.
Yeah, thats my take on it. I think that crewing has improved a bit also off the back of the improvements in availability. From my reading ALL western navies like the US) are having issues retaining crew in their submarine arms. That’s because of the nature of submarine operations. Stressful, long periods out of contact with family leading to “life” issues. And sub crews do stuff we NEVER hear about until years later if at all. Some of that is right on the edge of real wartime operations with the actual, real risk that someone will try and sink you…….and that it will get hushed up by both sides. There is a Big Boys Rules aspect to submarine operations that these people have to accept and live with, that maybe the crew of Targets (surface ships) dont have to as much.
Daretotread
Don’t worry about Vic she thinks she runs the show .
Victoria
When have i ever given Abbott a big tick on anything? However if you mean the plebiscite, then yes that is exactly the sort of issue I am talking about. There is a group of voters for whom SSM is the single biggest issue or at least one of half a dozen vey big issues. However for these voters it will NOT change the vote of many – they are already ALP or green voters. For the average voter who may support SSM or at least not oppose it, the issue is a huge yawn. A plebicite seems a nice and easy way of addressing the issue – sort of like taking Mum out a week late for Mother’s day. An imperfect option, but one that keeps the peace.
However too many here actually think that a SSM vote will actually chage votes. From Green to Labor maybe yes, but Liberal to labor, probably not many.
tpof @ #169 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 8:59 am
And herein lies further evidence of the unscrupulous man masquerading as the people’s champion. A duplicitous sneak who tut tuts at all the right points as he slithers and slides into your confidence… then he garrottes you.
Thanks BK, imacca and whombat for the posts re subs. Interesting.
4 million households receive extra payments for work done during anti-social hours. That is far from a smallish %.
123 people immediately come to mind for long shifts on a leaky sub.
rhwombat
@176
Sorry, I don’t know.
Victoria et al
Yes the failure of the MSN to call out Morrison on the debt stuff is pretty serious. However Labor has a problem here. If they do win in July, they will not be able to do anything much about the debt disaster, except perhaps the negative gearing stuff. it is a dnagerous strategy to carry on about the debt if in all likelihood they would do exactly the same.
Rachel Baker
7m7 minutes ago
Rachel Baker @astudentnow
Jon Faine absolutely destroyed the PM this morning and you should listen to it #auspol https://twitter.com/774melbourne/status/727654462123188224 …
I think we can reliably get 2 Collins boats on operations, and with the improvements in sustainability one or two more at short notice. My understanding is that 2 are pretty much always at ASC in maintenance at some level. That’s actually not bad proportions for a 6 boat fleet.
On having a 12 boat fleet. Seems to me 12 was a Rudd brainfart in a white paper. Back then 8 was considered a more reasonable target. However, when the subs project actually got going in a more detailed study kind of way, TKMS in particular said that they could do the build for so much less than people had been talking about, that with economies of scale (in this context) a 12 boat fleet was viable and actually desirable from an industrial perspective.
At least thats my understanding. So, Rudd brainfart at the time actually turned out not to be, and a 12 boat fleet now fits better with the “continuous build” industry support policy that appears to be bipartisan. I think crewing will be a challenge, but really we would be looking at 7-8, maybe 9 crews (say 480 active submariners @ 60 /boat) to achieve that. You can bet that Defence will be looking at automation to try and bring the needed crew / boat down as much as poss.
So Mal….assert yourself and get off your fat arse and DO something. Start by sacking Mr Potato Head of the Monkey Pod with prejudice.
So how many of the 12 new submarines can we expect to be fully crewed?
At least they have 10 years or more to find them – but the current crews will have retired by then?
dtt…
People are very apt to make comparisons between their own circumstances and those of others. Taxpayers will note that 1/4 of their number will get a personal income tax cut and 3/4 will not. That 3/4 include the overwhelming majority of working people…..maybe as many as 90% of wage and salary earners. They will rightly feel that others have been preferred even though health and education budgets have been chopped and the deficit is increasing. In effect, the Commonwealth is borrowing more money so it can offer tax cuts to the wealthiest taxpayers.
This is the bottom line for taxpaying worker/voters. Will they reward Turnbot with their votes? Not likely.
Briefly
OK – 4 million seems very high- It does NOT apply to the white collar workforce by and large. Are we talking an occasional public holiday shift?
will it affect their VOTES.
dtt
Turnbull and Morrison are presiding over the largest deficit ever. Meh
imacca
If Dutton wasn’t such an evil potatohead, he could keep the same harsh rules, but temper them with some decent humanity. The lies about the ‘excellence’ of medical facilities are so obvious.