Federal budget: the morning after

As the government gears up to reverse its polling fortunes on the back of last night’s budget, a look at post-budget polling effects going back to the dawn of Newspoll.

Leroy Lynch offers a reminder of a long lost Possum Comitatus post from budget time 2007, designed to address suggestions from certain elements of the media at that time that Peter Costello’s last budget (as it transpired) would finally kick off that long-awaited “narrowing” in Labor’s poll lead under Kevin Rudd. No evidence was found of consistent behaviour in polling at around budget time, but it strikes me that this matter is better considered on a case-by-case basis. So here’s a chart I’ve done showing how governments’ two-party poll ratings changed between a period from one month before each budget to one and two months after, based on trend measures of polling from the time (just Newspoll up the 2010 election, but BludgerTrack results thereafter). Many if not most of the big changes probably had little if anything to do with the budget (the Kevin Rudd leadership coup bounce in 2013, the carbon tax backlash in 2011, the unwinding of Kevin Rudd’s post-election honeymoon in 2008), but others (1993 and 2014 especially) very clearly did. Labor budgets are indicated in pink, Coalition ones in blue.

2016-05-04-budgetbounce

UPDATE: It occurs to me it might be a little more interesting if presented like this:

2016-05-04-budgetbounce2c

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

732 comments on “Federal budget: the morning after”

Comments Page 11 of 15
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  2. Minor change for the gerbils:

    It is normal to leave a bit of wiggle room (aka padding) on each side of the comment box.

    At the moment, the padding has been set to zero on the left, the text is hard up against the edge of the comment box. It is not a good look.

  3. Does anyone remember an animation series on Australian TV back in the 80’s (?) where lots of skinny people are running around with big people on their backs? Not sure but it may have had something to do with Norm. Cant find anything on google.

  5. Well, I’m not stupid. I waited.I didn’t spend any time complaining, or download Musrum’s scripts over a couple of dozen versions. I didn’t freak out that emoticons wouldn’t come up. Or that comments were in reverse order. I didn’t slag off the “gerbils”, because I’ve been in their position and it’s a horrible place, having the customer pacing back and forth while you to try to debug (hint: you have to wait until you give up, go home and – usually sitting on the toilet after an all night session coding – the answer comes to you as you ponder). The pressure goes double when the customer doesn’t pay for my services.

    I now some here pay, and I s’pose you have some sort of right to complain, but some of the comments I’ve seen here – quite personal (if that’s possible with anonymous “gerbils”) have been something a few should be ashamed of. Calling other posters, those who just decided to get along without whingeing, “completely stupid”, is a bit over the top, too.

    Most of the problems came with people who installed Musrum’s stuff, magnificently crafted to get by the most temporary of temporary problems, but when those problems changed the script made things worse… until Musrum came by and synched-up with the “gerbils'” latest attempt. If you’d have just stayed “vanilla flavoured” you’d have noticed many less problems, as I did.

  6. Just for info, the page navigation links now only work on Android if you log in. Probably want to fix that for the benefit of the more casual reader

  9. I think that Turnbull would have seen nothing inappropriate about his comments to Faine this morning. He just cannot comprehend that most people do not experience his level of affluence.

    Morrison, of course, considers that those who do not subscribe to the “prosperity gospel” do not deserve to benefit from budget measures.

  12. This seems to be coming via Dutton’s department.

    A plan to allow wealthy airline passengers to avoid long airport queues will bring more visitors to Australia, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton says.

    The government announced the potentially divisive measure in Tuesday’s federal budget. Plane passengers would be offered a “premium” experience at airports which Fairfax Media understands may include a fast-tracked passage through border clearance, or even separate terminals.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/government-plan-lets-you-skip-airport-queues–if-you-are-willing-to-pay-20160504-golxvu.html

  13. sohar
    We bought a repairable write off at auction last year. It was clear from the damage that the car had bounced off at least two objects (one was clearly a power pole).
    We found a receipt on the back seat, basically for souping the car up — dated the day of the crash!

  14. Good to see I am not the only one asking this question. 😀

    Quietly Confident
    4h4 hours ago
    Quietly Confident ‏@jonkudelka
    At school pickup discussing how expensive it is to buy houses for multiple kids.

  16. re any new polls
    steve price on the project Monday night was pretty adamant, that there was a newspoll to be reported and the fig. was going to be around 53/47 labor or 52/48 labor but you had to wait for tomorrow night

  19. From the ABC article on Bishop’s departure:

    “I was asked to resign for Tony Abbott, someone whom I had assisted and worked with and respected for many years,” she said.

    “There is much more than meets the eye in that saga but not for now.”

    Sounds like she intends to unload on the Liberals at some time. Preferably before the election.

  20. @zoomster

    sohar
    We bought a repairable write off at auction last year. It was clear from the damage that the car had bounced off at least two objects (one was clearly a power pole).
    We found a receipt on the back seat, basically for souping the car up — dated the day of the crash!

    You’re really brave to buy a writeoff with significant work needed. My current car is bought from a write-off from a weather event (in fact the one that caused the flood in Melbourne back in 2010). It had hail damage, but you could barely see it even if it’s under strong lights.

  21. Bluey Bulletin No 44 Day 44 of 103

    OYSTERS
    Ms Bishop spent some time during QT talking about oysters. Perhaps there is a link between oysters and Mr Pantson. Bluey reckons that if occies can talk about humans that it should be OK for humans to talk about oysters. OTOH, no-one pays Bluey north of $200,000 a year to talk about humans.

    INCHOATE RETICULE OF BAD ASSUMPTIONS
    Within the past two days (three if you use the Morrison system of counting):

    1. The spot price of iron ore fell 4% on news of rapidly rising inventories undercutting the notion that the Budget price for iron ore has any legs at all.
    2. The China manufacturing index figures spooked bourses world wide.
    3. The Reserve Bank cut Morrison’s legs from under him by dropping the interest rate in response to fears of deflation in an economy that is close to having the staggers.
    4. Bank profits have started to tank, dividends ditto.
    5. Morrison was shocked to find that there was such a thing as a five cent piece.

    Bluey reckons the Budget assumptions, fanciful to begin with, are already stone dead.

    CATTY MESDAMES
    Bluey observed Carnell and Westacott doing the old Chesire Cat routine on the MSM this AM. They can hardly believe their luck. Instead of doing the company tax routine by calling it a company tax the Coalition has introduced a company tax cut by calling it a small business tax cut.

    WORK FOR THE DOLE REBADGED
    Bluey notes that the last scheme was a scandal when it came to OH&S and the like and that this was bound to come out when the Coroner reports into the work death of one of the Government’s work-for-the-dole ‘clients’. The Government, ever eager to learn from its mistakes, has rebadged the whole thing and will now bribe employers with more money than even workers will get. Bluey reckons that it is wonderful that the Turnbull Government is prepared to learn from the pioneering work of 7/11 and like-minded workplace philanthropists. Bluey notes that young adults earning $4 an hour will be able to negatively gear a house purchase sometime in the 22nd Century.

    TALKING HEADS
    Coalition talking heads once again outnumbered Labor talking heads by around 4:1 on the MSM this morning.

    OAKES
    Bluey reckons that OAKES DIY facts are past their use-by date. This morning he opined that Shorten has ‘guts’ which Bluey reckons is self-evident. But then Oakes went on to say that the thought that Turnbull would win. One reason he gave was that Labor will never win while its primary polling is ‘in the low thirties’. Bluey reckons that Oakes is a fact-free cad.
    PVO
    Allowed on Sky today that Shorten ‘rises to big occasions.’ Bluey reckons that the MSM are finally starting to twig about something that was obvious to cephalopods a long, long time ago.

    NARRATIVES AIN’T NARRATIVES
    Bluey reckons that there are several coherent narratives in the Budget but that the raving right would rather not talk about it. The first is the progressive cost-shifting to the states of the social, education and health spend. The second is the ongoing subventions to the rich and the powerful. The third is the way in which it is likely to increase Australia’s wealth disparity. The fourth is the evident intent to erode the Commonwealth tax base. Meanwhile Roskam is whinging because he did not get 100% of everything on day one.

    DEPARTMENT OF SOUR GRAPES
    ABBOTT!
    Abbott still hates Turnbull and Morrison. Bluey noted that he forebore to applaud the evil Turnbull Budget.
    BORG
    Bluey reckons that it is nice of the Queensland branch of the evil ones to remind everyone that there is a sharp knife in the knapsack of every rating right MP.
    JENSEN
    Jensen has written a timely letter getting stuck into the Turnbull Government. PARKES
    Having promised much and delivered zilch (eerily like the Greens) Parkes provided the Liberals with some ammunition by way of a Parthian shot at Labor over refugee policy.
    BBISHOP
    Shafts Abbott. A good hater to the end. Bluey reckons goodbye and no thanks for coming.

    QT
    Plibersek asked a good one. Bowen is onto an excellent line of questioning about the lack of costings for the пятилетний план, первая пятилетка x 2 The more Bowen persisted, the shoutier Morrison got. Shorten’s questions were to the point. While listening to yet another Philippic from Morrison, Bluey had an awful thought. How does Morrison do foreplay? (Bluey can let readers know that it is quite tenticular with occies).

    BANDT ON FIRE DURING QT
    Bluey reckons that Bandt took the heat off Dutton today with his QT stunt. Bluey trusts that Di Natale will take Bandt’s matches off him before he does any more damage to Greens’ Cred. Bluey has had to take a point off the Greens for Bandt’s utter lack of common decency.

    WOW! ZINGER! BISHOP OFFERS TO RESIGN!
    A reputable source has provided Bluey with the following information.

    The back story is that the Foreign Minister has belatedly realized that she had compromised national security and broken several criminal laws by showing a non-security-cleared person official documents with high-level security ratings. As a result the Foreign Minister has offered her resignation to Mr Turnbull. She apparently informed the Prime Minister that she inadvertently gave her partner access to high security rated material. Ms Bishop has apparently denied knowing whether her partner was an ISIS operator, a Timorese spy, or a Russian Spetnatz killer. The Foreign Minister admitted that she provided her partner with a squiz at stuff that is normally restricted to people with high level security clearances and that these clearances normally involves intensive and extensive work by the likes of the AFP, ASIO and DSD. Ms Bishop explained to Mr Turnbull that stopping this sort of security breach is why the Government has changed numerous laws and spent billions of dollars. Further, Ms Bishop indicated to Mr Turnbull that she wanted to spend more time with her family just as soon as she could cobble a family together for face-saving purposes.
    Mr Turnbull’s Office has indicated that now that Ms Bishop was no longer a threat to Mr Turnbull’s hold on the prime ministership she could show Mr Panton whatever she liked.
    Bluey reckons that Panton rhymes with Banton and that there would be a certain karmic justice were Panton’s peccadillos to destroy Bishop’s political career. Bluey reminds Mr Panton that if he has indeed colluded with Ms Bishop to peruse security rated documentation without appropriate levels of clearance, he has committed a serious breach of some very serious laws.
    Bluey felt compelled to make this breaking news public after watching the taxpayer funded security add where you see the bomb in the carry bag and report it to the Feds.

    JFK’S PUSSY
    Bluey got a call from Trump. Trump told Bluey that Turnbull’s father had a hand in assassinating JFK’s cat.

    WHACK A MOLE
    Bluey reckons that Turnbull and Morrison have whacked ordinary tax payers, parents looking for childcare, aged care elderly, superannuants, school children, university people, public servants, young people wanting to buy a house, the environment, the climate, and the unemployed. Bluey reckons that there are scads more of these sorts of moles than moles who wear top hats.

    Summary: Despite massive MSM gabbling about jobs and growth Bluey reckons that today was at evens. The Budget exposed Turnbull’s Achilles Heel which may be found directly beneath his Top Hat. And Bluey reckons that we all know what happened to Achilles.

    Verdict for the day: Evens.

    Cumulative tally: Labor 27.5 Coalition 16.5 Greens -1

  22. Bw

    Opinions vary.

    They did. Conqueror had two on board. She needed replenishment that couldn’t be done cross deck.

    When she made Asuncion we had them taken off. The USN helped and Ticonderoga took them back to Rosyth.

    I don’t think anyone told MT that.

  23. Boerwar, if you happen to be about.
    With Bluey consulting with his lawyers concerning the “wow”, is it going to be the 5 minute argument, or the full half hour?

  24. Chrome on Android phone is seriously borked. I think it is the way Chrome trys to compensate for high pixel count screen by reporting to CSS a low pixel count.
    Used to get around it by selecting the desktop site, and zooming to the width of comments.
    Firefox has a (hidden parameter) adjustment, so will show more than 30 – 40 charactors across.

  26. CTaR1
    They did not exactly share it with the rest of the world, either. First time I’ve heard. How very, very fascinating.

  30. I am finding things improving here all the time. I can readily see 526 comments to date and the Comment navigation lists 1,2,3….11 Next. Also the sequence is now oldest to youngest comment as it were. However the comments box appears at the head of the comments not the end, but I can live with this.

    As far as I can see many of the bugs have been sorted out…thanks.

  34. Also, William,
    congrats on winning on ordering the comments and pagination.
    The only thing I miss is your Python’s God as your gravatar.

  38. ML
    a/c William these are not going to happen. I think I will try referring to absolute time markers instead. It should work.

  39. Interesting call of Bluey, apart from Bishop the younger, evens on budget day 1.
    Doesn’t forbode well for the next 90+(or how many there actually are).

  41. JR
    Bluey reckons that at around 11 am it was still a win for the Coalition. By the end of the day the seams were opening. There is no way a merchant banker is going to survive giving himself a $16,000 tax cut (assuming he is on a million a year plus) while someone on $60,000 a year gets zilch.

  44. Was listening to the Renegade Economist on the way home again today and thought I’d share a few ideas after the inspiration acquired.

    Low interest rates mean cheap money to borrow.
    Borrowed money invested wisely in long-term initiatives that benefit the public such as health, education, infrastructure would likely provide a higher ROI than the cost of borrowing.
    It’s generally much cheaper for government to carry out large infrastructure projects themselves rather than pay the private sector to do it. Presumably the need to maximise profits has something to do with this?

    Consumers (You and Me), are the ultimate drivers of economic growth. Buying power is what drives growth, so the way to encourage growth is to increase the amount of disposable income for consumers. A slow way of doing this is to provide business with tax cuts and hope that eventually they will employ more people who will eventually acquire some disposable income and spend it (Increase supply first). A much more direct way would be to give the consumer tax cuts (even if that was funded with cheap borrowed government money) increasing their disposable income which would encourage spending and create the demand that would encourage business to hire more people (Increase demand first).

    I’m sure there are many flaws with these ideas, but they seem to be pretty logical.

  45. Boerwar, I’ve installed Musrum’s script, and I get post numbers. Your last one is #538 and Bluey’s is #521.
    BTW, Bluey didn’t get the PM’s fine moment on Jon Faine’s program this morning on 774 when the PM suggested Faine should stump up the $ for his offspring to get into owning their own house? It got quite the trot around the paddock in the MSM.

  47. I’ve just emailed Turnbull as follows:
    Dear Prime Minister,
    So, you “grieve” for the asylum seekers on Manus Island and Nauru do you? Is this why your government continues to employ, at a sanitising remove, Wilson Security to manage these places?
    I think you should pepper your grief with a sprinkling of despair. You should despair that as Prime Minister of this country the only thing you can think of doing is to mutter mawkishly about your “grief”.
    I won’t link to Wilson Security’s self-congratulatory indeed masturbatory website, but you will find that it doesn’t include photos of some of its key personnel like this photo does: https://www.facebook.com/Asylum.Seeker.Resource.Centre.ASRC/photos/a.615996628438487.1073741835.341910905847062/889255527779261/?type=1&theater.
    I suggest Prime Minister that you (and anyone else reading this letter since I am going to circulate it) just look at that photo for a minute in silence. During the minute, ask yourselves why people like this are given the job of “guarding” asylum seekers.
    And here is an article by Martin McKenzie-Murray that essentially describes Wilson Security as a Nauru Gestapo: https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2016/04/09/wilson-securitys-appalling-record-nauru/14601240003105. Small wonder that the odious fascist (and I very seldom use either that adjective or that noun) Mike Pezzullo is quite happy keeping Wilson Security employed. He’s back in the glory days of the brownshirts and he has plenty of medals he can dispense to the most brutal.
    Is there any need to treat people quite this badly? You and your government seem to think so. And you are Prime Minister.
    Paul Hodgson

  48. lizzie @ #512 Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 6:20 pm

    This seems to be coming via Dutton’s department.

    A plan to allow wealthy airline passengers to avoid long airport queues will bring more visitors to Australia, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton says.
    The government announced the potentially divisive measure in Tuesday’s federal budget. Plane passengers would be offered a “premium” experience at airports which Fairfax Media understands may include a fast-tracked passage through border clearance, or even separate terminals.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/federal-budget/government-plan-lets-you-skip-airport-queues–if-you-are-willing-to-pay-20160504-golxvu.html

    Does Dutton even realise that the Income for ISIS is approaching $1 Billion/year? They’ll be able to afford the fast lane no problem.

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